Season 21 - 22 survival bid statistics

[Quagga]

43 minutes ago, Yani P said:

In the end it doesn't matter..if we get to around 46 we should be safe, the 6 pointers help psychogically though in the short term..and we need as many wins as we can get..

Agreed, the other benefit of the 6 pointers though, is if we win enough of them, the 46 point target may get reduced. 6 points off Cardiff for example is preferable to losing to them twice but getting 6 points elsewhere instead.

[G STAR RAM]

1 hour ago, Dean (hick) Saunders said:

I know what you are saying, but the situation that led to the approach is the same for -9 or -21 points arguably.

I think with 9 points we would have been a bit more conservative as the target would have been much more within reach.

22 points has literally prompted shackles off and go for broke.

I dont think we would have lost to QPR other than for the situation.

[Dean (hick) Saunders]

13 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

I think with 9 points we would have been a bit more conservative as the target would have been much more within reach.

22 points has literally prompted shackles off and go for broke.

I dont think we would have lost to QPR other than for the situation.

I don’t think our approach (tic taks etc) looks like go for broke particularly, generally we have been prioritising defence still which makes sense as we are low in goal scoring capabilities.

What I think is different (due to the deduction) is the pressure off + we will fight and show them effect which I think is similar for whatever points deduction is of the scale we have.

It could have gone the other way with a different group of players/coaches along the lines of Forkkit Ill go through the motions until I’m out of it. We are all enjoying the fact that it did not go this way..

Anyhow COYR ??

[TigerTedd]

 

26 minutes ago, Dean (hick) Saunders said:

I don’t think our approach (tic taks etc) looks like go for broke particularly, generally we have been prioritising defence still which makes sense as we are low in goal scoring capabilities.

What I think is different (due to the deduction) is the pressure off + we will fight and show them effect which I think is similar for whatever points deduction is of the scale we have.

It could have gone the other way with a different group of players/coaches along the lines of Forkkit Ill go through the motions until I’m out of it. We are all enjoying the fact that it did not go this way..

Anyhow COYR ??

There are all sorts of universes in the mulitiverse, where all sorts of realities play out.

One where we didn’t go into admin, didn’t loose any points but the players said ‘duck it’ anyway, and we went down. One where we we lose 9pts and Mel doesn’t put us into admin and we still go down. There’s only one universe, with just the right set of circumstances that we stay up. We’re living in that universe. 

[DesertRam]

Just checked the Form Table and we are 6th, with a poss 6 points

from the next 2 games -  Reading (not played - covid), and Coventry (23rd on form table)

If we can get 6,  I'm definitely a Daydream Believer  ?

[Yani P]

9 minutes ago, DesertRam said:

Just checked the Form Table and we are 6th, with a poss 6 points

from the next 2 games -  Reading (not played - covid), and Coventry (23rd on form table)

If we can get 6,  I'm definitely a Daydream Believer  ?

Coventry is the FA Cup mate

[StantonRam]

Getting very excited about this now.  Here's why.

If those above us have a 2nd half of the season that's similar to their 1st half then that would leave us, after 46 games, with

Hull 46

Cardiff 44

Reading 42

Posh 38

Baaaaaaarnsley eeeee by eck lad 28

On that basis, and predicting that our GD will still be superior to all the above, we need 42 points to stay up.

That means picking up 32 more points from 22 more games.  That's an average of 1.5 points per game or 10 wins and 2 draws.

To me that means that the "go for the win even if we sometimes lose" strategy should be continued because (a) 1 point per game is not going to be enough and (b) it seems to be working!

If we win 11 and lose 11 from the remaining 22 that's still 33 points and over the line.

Even more important, in the light of the above, to beat Reading tomorrow.  Anything that reduces their chance of getting to 42 points is welcome.  We must go for the 3 points!

This is definitely doable folks, am more optimistic now than ever, what a trio of games we've just seen, and everyone is behind the players and willing them on.

COYR!!! 

[Crewton]

Using the "deduct 1/2 pt per game" method, we're 22nd on 19 points. It's closer than it looks. 

[Kenavo]

4 hours ago, LondonRam2 said:

If those above us have a 2nd half of the season that's similar to their 1st half then that would leave us, after 46 games, with

Hull 46

Cardiff 44

Reading 42

Posh 38

Baaaaaaarnsley eeeee by eck lad 28

On that basis, and predicting that our GD will still be superior to all the above, we need 42 points to stay up.

Think you're forgetting that Reading had 6 points deducted, so a similar second half of the season for them would leave them on 48 points. Target would then be 44 (could make for an epic last game of the season vs Cardiff).

[Donnyram]

14 hours ago, Yani P said:

In the end it doesn't matter..if we get to around 46 we should be safe, the 6 pointers help psychogically though in the short term..and we need as many wins as we can get..

We’ve got Barnsley, Peterborough, Cardiff, Hull, Bristol and Birmingham to play at home…… all massive games for us….. plus of course Reading away tomorrow.  
 

Also, is there a chance that Bristol will be docked points for FFP breach??

[Donnyram]

12 hours ago, Dean (hick) Saunders said:

I don’t think our approach (tic taks etc) looks like go for broke particularly, generally we have been prioritising defence still which makes sense as we are low in goal scoring capabilities.

What I think is different (due to the deduction) is the pressure off + we will fight and show them effect which I think is similar for whatever points deduction is of the scale we have.

It could have gone the other way with a different group of players/coaches along the lines of Forkkit Ill go through the motions until I’m out of it. We are all enjoying the fact that it did not go this way..

Anyhow COYR ??

The impact of the incredible support both home and away is also a huge factor…… instils confidence in the players and is a far cry from the jitters that used to be evident in the team when the crowd got on their backs.  That said this is chicken and egg as the players effort and commitment on the pitch is driving the crowd support!  Credit to Wayne for this one as he has created the team spirit 

[Sean]

Trees v Barnsley now postponed

[Yani P]

Updated tracker with deduction spread over all games.

[Yani P]

Table showing timings of our goal and opponent goals. 61-75 minutes still the perfect section lol.

[Yani P]

Note predicted safety points reduced by 2 to 44 - mirroring last season after 23 games.

Im still expecting this to possibly trend higher due to the abysmal late runs of us and sheff weds last season.

[Yani P]

[Yani P]

Interestingly that Reading result tonight now sets the safety benchmark down 3 points to 41 points.

I'm still pretty sure it could end up above 44 BUT...the longer we keep the tracker below last season the bigger our chance of survival.

The Sheff Weds and Derby factors from last season still make it look like it might go higher but no reason why some of those in the zone wont also have a shocker of a run coming home.

[ariotofmyown]

14 minutes ago, Yani P said:

Interestingly that Reading result tonight now sets the safety benchmark down 3 points to 41 points.

I'm still pretty sure it could end up above 44 BUT...the longer we keep the tracker below last season the bigger our chance of survival.

The Sheff Weds and Derby factors from last season still make it look like it might go higher but no reason why some of those in the zone wont also have a shocker of a run coming home.

Reading are looking pretty dire at the moment, that 11 points difference could soon disappear if they continue to be so bad.

That Davis equaliser could be so crucial for them as well as us. Since then, they've lost to Kidderminster then been smashed tonight.

Teams in the mire rarely pick up points, unless they have a much better record than those around them, but with points deducted.

[DCFC1388]

The current bottom 6 - 

Hull - P24 - 23pts

Cardiff - P24 - 23pts

Reading - P24 - 22pts (28 really)

P'Boro - P23 - 19pts

Barnsley - P24 - 14pts

Derby - P25 - 11pts (32 really)

Now based off that, and their current ppg, if that continues for the remaining games the bottom 6 would be (based off current goal difference) - 

Reading - 48pts (54 really)

Hull - 44pts

Cardiff - 44pts

Derby - 38pts (59 really)

P'Boro - 38pts

Barnsley - 27pts

So we would be 6pts from safety. With the home games we have and hopefully maybe some feel good factor with a new owner & Bielik back we could make up those 6pts.

Also, imo I feel like Hull wont have as good a 2nd half a season as they have the first...at least that is what I am hoping. They lose 1 extra game & we win 1 extra thats the 6pts on them.

[Ram1988]

Fulham certainly did us a favour tonight as Reading certainly got a drumming.