Crewton Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 On 25/11/2021 at 09:08, Albert said: The way I tend to look at this is by looking at our 21 point deduction over the whole season, rather than a lump sum. Think of it as amoritising the deduction, the straight line method, of course. Anyhow, on current points, this is the bottom 5 using this method: 20. Cardiff 18 21. Reading 17 22. Peterborough 15 23. Derby 13.3 24. Barnsley 11 We're not well placed, we're basically 4 points below where we'd be on 'par' for survival, but the situation looks more manageable at the very least. The thought linked to this is that usually 1 point per game is enough for survival, so the relegation battle can be seen as: Win: +2 points v rivals Draw: no change Loss: -1 point v rivals When averaged over time. The points deduction is basically making it so the above is the same, but minus 0.46 points per game, ie: Win: +1.54 v rivals Draw: -0.46 v rivals Loss: -1.46 v rivals So really, we need about 3 wins to put ourselves on par, then maintain about 1.5 points per game from there. It's not impossible, but takes so doing. Honestly, it's doable if we can survive January. A new owner before then, and not losing any key players and there is a real chance of the miracle. I'd say only about 1 in 4, but still... Great minds think alike ? Yani P 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted November 26, 2021 Author Share Posted November 26, 2021 10 minutes ago, Crewton said: Great minds think alike ? Lol didn't see that one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted November 26, 2021 Author Share Posted November 26, 2021 I really hope we can get to halfway with at least another couple of wins..that will put us on track..the 3rd quadrant of games I highlighted are really the make or break.. if we match that run or get close I will call us staying up with 15 games to play with great confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crewton Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 17 minutes ago, Yani P said: Lol didn't see that one.. I think your analysis is another good way to look at it, and more sophisticated in truth, but they both offer greater nuance than simply looking at the league table, though that will be the only one that matters eventually! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted November 26, 2021 Author Share Posted November 26, 2021 Ive put in the complete season 20-21 just to help with tracking. This is a vital stat as if this season starts to track above last we will know that 44 points wont do. At the moment its tracking at 45 - i'm expecting this to track back by the halfway point. Last season was very linear in that half one and half 2 both tracked to 22 points. The last 9 games of last season is a bit of a worry as the progress basically fell off a cliff - we were the main cause of that lol LeedsCityRam and Carnero 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinhectoring Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 Think we want a horrible 1-1 draw today between Peterborough and Barnsley. Something to really dampen their spirits Rammy03 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerTedd Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 16 hours ago, LazloW said: The chances of staying up are a million to one… but they said that about anything coming from Mars too… but still they come. (One for the kids). It is extremely unlikely though. We all know that. Coming up with smart a*** stats to demonstrate this just makes you look like a bit of a sneering know-it-all who likes to think they know more about football that anybody else (but what else is new?). The last two games have generated a bit of positivity and goodwill. Let’s enjoy it while we can, as I suspect the tone will change somewhat when we lose a couple, as we inevitably will. The problem is when people don’t actually live in Derby, they don’t get the actual real impact on the local community. Derby do well, and the whole place is lifted. We do badly, and there’s a cloud over the whole city. We need to grab whatever positivity we can or we just accept it, and the whole city spends the next year in the doldrums. It’s not just about football. BramcoteRam84 and Crewton 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BramcoteRam84 Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, TigerTedd said: The problem is when people don’t actually live in Derby, they don’t get the actual real impact on the local community. Derby do well, and the whole place is lifted. We do badly, and there’s a cloud over the whole city. We need to grab whatever positivity we can or we just accept it, and the whole city spends the next year in the doldrums. It’s not just about football. So so true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted November 27, 2021 Author Share Posted November 27, 2021 7 hours ago, BramcoteRam84 said: So so true. Funny how it seems.. Mucker1884 and BramcoteRam84 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted November 27, 2021 Author Share Posted November 27, 2021 cardiff hull Reading all winning is not ideal .. Rammy03 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mucker1884 Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 55 minutes ago, Yani P said: Funny how it seems.. 6 minutes ago, Yani P said: cardiff hull Reading all winning is not ideal .. Looks like we'll be Always in time, but never in line for dreams! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Ram Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 Results went against us today ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rammy03 Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 (edited) Hull have now won 4 games in a row. This is what we need to do. We draw too many games and we won't get anywhere with that. We need to put a run of wins together to have a chance. If Hull can do it why can't Derby? Edited November 27, 2021 by Rammy03 jimtastic56 and cstand 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted November 27, 2021 Author Share Posted November 27, 2021 We can and we will.. cstand, hintonsboots and Rammy03 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carnero Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 42 minutes ago, Yani P said: cardiff hull Reading all winning is not ideal .. Not ideal at all, but we need to somehow muster 44+ points ourselves regardless, otherwise what other teams do is pretty irrelevant. Rammy03, jimtastic56, Zag zig and 1 other 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted November 27, 2021 Author Share Posted November 27, 2021 (edited) 4th bottom now tracking 3 points higher than last season after the run of wins for hull.. That currently pushes the safety number up to at least net 47 after deductions - so 46 more points it can easily change as the reality of relegation form is that there will be teams that go through dire runs of consecutive defeats like Sheff Weds and Derby did last season. Also, will it be Hull, Reading and Cardiff holding the 4th bottom place later in the season? are there other clubs that could fall in there like a Bristol, Luton or even Blackpool?....who knows.. Edited November 27, 2021 by Yani P jimtastic56 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ram-Alf Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 19 points is a vast amount of points to pick up when you have a squad as thin as ours, Fingers crossed that we're sold before the window shuts and WR has players lined up, Is it possible...yes, Can we do it ?, It's the others above the bottom 3 we hope fail ? jimtastic56 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistoldPete Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 39 minutes ago, Unlucky Alf said: 19 points is a vast amount of points to pick up when you have a squad as thin as ours, Fingers crossed that we're sold before the window shuts and WR has players lined up, Is it possible...yes, Can we do it ?, It's the others above the bottom 3 we hope fail ? We would be in trouble even without the 21 points deducted. Only 2 points from the bottom three even without the deductions. Mind you we would be only 10 points off a play off place .. seven if we win on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MackworthRamIsGod Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 We needed results to go our way today and a win on Monday, 14 points from safety would look better. Next 4 games are key now, it's time we go on a 3 or 4 game winning run to get us back on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 On 26/11/2021 at 19:31, Yani P said: Ive put in the complete season 20-21 just to help with tracking. This is a vital stat as if this season starts to track above last we will know that 44 points wont do. At the moment its tracking at 45 - i'm expecting this to track back by the halfway point. Last season was very linear in that half one and half 2 both tracked to 22 points. The last 9 games of last season is a bit of a worry as the progress basically fell off a cliff - we were the main cause of that lol How about 3rd bottom, considering it's that total we'd need to beat, rather than match 4th from bottom Mucker1884 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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