Season 21 - 22 survival bid statistics

[Yani P]

I decided not to put out the graphics after the last gameweek until we have confirmation of our total points deduction for the season. one graphic that I think really tells the tale of our struggles to win games is the score flow table - this simply shows when we are ahead/level/behind in any game.

We know last season was a major struggle - we didnt manage to fall behind and win any game and only managed to fall behind and draw a couple of times.

This season isnt much better in that regard, we have still not managed a win after falling behind and have managed to draw once - to be fair we havent been behind too often which is certainly an improvement.

However, the bigger worry (especially with the mentality we need of winning games at all cost) we have been ahead in 9 games and only won 3 of them.

[Yani P]

An added point to the above..the only games we have won have been games where we were the only team scoring in the game.

[Yani P]

14 hours ago, Yani P said:

An added point to the above..the only games we have won have been games where we were the only team scoring in the game.

Please ignore this post..I blame sleep deprivation..

[Carl Sagan]

Do love the thread, but sadly I can't help thinking...

 

[Ellafella]

On 12/11/2021 at 21:28, Yani P said:

I decided not to put out the graphics after the last gameweek until we have confirmation of our total points deduction for the season. one graphic that I think really tells the tale of our struggles to win games is the score flow table - this simply shows when we are ahead/level/behind in any game.

We know last season was a major struggle - we didnt manage to fall behind and win any game and only managed to fall behind and draw a couple of times.

This season isnt much better in that regard, we have still not managed a win after falling behind and have managed to draw once - to be fair we havent been behind too often which is certainly an improvement.

However, the bigger worry (especially with the mentality we need of winning games at all cost) we have been ahead in 9 games and only won 3 of them.

@Yani P Lots of hard work; well done. Perhaps though we need some “benchmarks” ie how about similar stats for other teams. Otherwise it’s all a bit “so what?” ?‍♂️
For example, we’ve been ahead in 9 games but only won 3? So what does that illustrate? Does it reflect poor tactics by the management? How many other Champ sides have been ahead in games and then lost? What’s their conversion rate? I suspect Derby may not be an outlier on that? Is it a cause or effect? Does losing a lead cause us to be a poor side or does being a poor side cause us to lose a lead?  Do we lose a lead because we have a thin squad? The scatters from experimental 3-6-1 suggest we’re a poor side because we don’t score. We spend a lot of time defending. We were a very good solid side…but we were defending to the hilt so perhaps inevitable that we regressed to the mean and started letting goals in latterly; what do you think? 

[i-Ram]

53 minutes ago, Ellafella said:

@Yani P Lots of hard work; well done. Perhaps though we need some “benchmarks” ie how about similar stats for other teams. Otherwise it’s all a bit “so what?” ?‍♂️
For example, we’ve been ahead in 9 games but only won 3? So what does that illustrate? Does it reflect poor tactics by the management? How many other Champ sides have been ahead in games and then lost? What’s their conversion rate? I suspect Derby may not be an outlier on that? Is it a cause or effect? Does losing a lead cause us to be a poor side or does being a poor side cause us to lose a lead?  Do we lose a lead because we have a thin squad? The scatters from experimental 3-6-1 suggest we’re a poor side because we don’t score. We spend a lot of time defending. We were a very good solid side…but we were defending to the hilt so perhaps inevitable that we regressed to the mean and started letting goals in latterly; what do you think? 

Not enough whiteboarding methinks. Rooney appears to have fallen into the same trap as Cocu of not being able to convince Morris and Pearce of the opportunity cost of not going big on buying players capable of putting it in the net. 

[Yani P]

Think the biggest worry is that our opponents at the wrong end of the table have shown the ability to win after falling behind (sadly in some cases this was against us)..something we will need to get very good at this season by the looks of it..

Edited November 16, 2021 by Yani P

[Mucker1884]

I have just one request to the players and coaching staff...

Before we leave this fine upstanding division of virtue and glory, can we please, please, please regain guardianship of The Brian Clough Trophy.

Thankyou.  

?

[Yani P]

OK so not great news this week with an extra -9 but I'm keeping the faith that these lads can make history - sounds like Rooney and the players are as well so long may that continue!! There are enough threads where people are looking at League 1 as a foregone conclusion - that's fine but this thread is here to plot the lads progress and to provide some data to measure how we are going.

As you know, I have decided to track against last season as that was our nearest flirt with relegation that would act as a good gauge. After 17 games the 4th bottom team are tracking +2 compared to last season so right now it pushes the safety target up to 46 points.

I have created a graphical view of what things look like broken into 4 sections -

• The first 17 games (as those are the completed games). 
• The next 6 (to take us to the halfway point)
• The next 8 (our golden form period of 20-21) this is the very tricky section as we could easily fall well off track if we have a poor spell in comparison.
• The final 15 games - this is our shining light of hope - we were dire last season during this spell, this is where I am hoping we can close the gap significantly - can we do enough to make it really interesting? I hope so..

We are currently 15 points off of our pace of last season - this is the gap that I will be monitoring and tracking to see if we get close..

[Kingpin]

On 17/11/2021 at 09:32, Mucker1884 said:

I have just one request to the players and coaching staff...

Before we leave this fine upstanding division of virtue and glory, can we please, please, please regain guardianship of The Brian Clough Trophy.

Thankyou.  

?

Lord yes. Imagine that… go down fighting. The ultimate humiliation for them on home turf. A victorious -21 Derby. ??

Edited November 19, 2021 by Kingpin

[Yani P]

Superb couple of results keeps us well on track to pull of the miracle.

I will put some updated graphics up soon, but in terms of tracking progress - we still need to get the equivalent of 66 or 67 points as things stand. This would equate to Net 45 or 46, the 4th bottom tracker comparative to last season currently sits on 45 points so even though 4th bottom gained on us today (due to Hull winning) in the overall picture it has closed the required points required to 45.

progression v last season is healthy enough - we only had 19 points at the halfway point last season, we have 22 (net 1) with 4 games still to play this season. So in effect a deficit of 18 points but with 4 games still to go - will be interesting to see where we are at halfway.

[OUTSIDER]

This is what  see and after last 2 games ..

 We might we just might  do it

Coyr

[I know nuffin]

If we carry on at this rate the administrators will put the price up!. If we can overtake Barnsley it is going to get very interesting

[Albert]

The way I tend to look at this is by looking at our 21 point deduction over the whole season, rather than a lump sum. Think of it as amoritising the deduction, the straight line method, of course. 

Anyhow, on current points, this is the bottom 5 using this method:

20. Cardiff 18

21. Reading 17

22. Peterborough 15

23. Derby 13.3

24. Barnsley 11

We're not well placed, we're basically 4 points below where we'd be on 'par' for survival, but the situation looks more manageable at the very least. 

The thought linked to this is that usually 1 point per game is enough for survival, so the relegation battle can be seen as:

Win: +2 points v rivals

Draw: no change

Loss: -1 point v rivals

When averaged over time. The points deduction is basically making it so the above is the same, but minus 0.46 points per game, ie:

Win: +1.54 v rivals

Draw: -0.46 v rivals

Loss: -1.46 v rivals

So really, we need about 3 wins to put ourselves on par, then maintain about 1.5 points per game from there. It's not impossible, but takes so doing. Honestly, it's doable if we can survive January. A new owner before then, and not losing any key players and there is a real chance of the miracle. I'd say only about 1 in 4, but still...

[Dimmu]

I think we can overtake Barnsley and Peterborough. But the third.... that's a tough one.

Maybe someone else will have points deduction as well and help us out?

[Mucker1884]

I have to say, what is all this absolute piffle about us being Derby County, and fighting to the end?
I've never heard such guff! 

Much more of this, and our fighting will all be over by the time we invade Blackpool on Sunday 1st May (See what I did there for you, Sky?  ?)

It'll be one massive love-in v Cardiff.  No fighting required!  

?

[brady1993]

I think the thing that gives us an inkling of hope there are 4 teams who are averaging less than a point per game this season. Meaning the points total required to escape could be very low, it's likely the team who finishes 21st only needs a number in the low 40s.

[MackworthRamIsGod]

Get a fit bielik in this team and a striker who knows how to stick the ball in the net and the 2nd half of the season could be very interesting.

Next 4 games are where we really need to be making up some ground, before the tough games against Brom.

Qpr, Bristol City, Blackpool and Cardiff. 2 wins 2 draws would keep us well on track.

 

[Tamworthram]

52 minutes ago, Dimmu said:

I think we can overtake Barnsley and Peterborough. But the third.... that's a tough one.

Maybe someone else will have points deduction as well and help us out?

It’s just too early to be targeting specific clubs. At the start of November Hull looked like a team we could catch most easily (along with Barnsley) but three straight wins have lifted them clear. Any team could go on a good run like Hull or a bad one like Peterborough. Plus, there is only 2 or 3 points between Peterborough and the next three teams above them. So IF you think we can overtake Peterborough then the next team isn’t that far out of range (as things stand).

It’s obviously a massive ask (one more miracle and Rooney would be eligible to be canonised) but you never know.

[Dimmu]

50 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

It’s just too early to be targeting specific clubs. At the start of November Hull looked like a team we could catch most easily (along with Barnsley) but three straight wins have lifted them clear. Any team could go on a good run like Hull or a bad one like Peterborough. Plus, there is only 2 or 3 points between Peterborough and the next three teams above them. So IF you think we can overtake Peterborough then the next team isn’t that far out of range (as things stand).

It’s obviously a massive ask (one more miracle and Rooney would be eligible to be canonised) but you never know.

I didn't really think about the points. Just the quality of the teams.