Relegation watch

[RammingStone66]

3 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

But even ignoring Waghorn's current book value, we won't be able to sell him as he's out of contract in the summer

Oh my apologies, I didn't realise he was out of contract. I was just using him as an example of us losing money against P&S and how I imagine that would stop us from being able to spend. I assume there other players with higher book values than current transfer value too.

I guess tbh our track record is rather toss when spending money on players so maybe it's a positive that it's loans and frees ?

[Rab a dab doo]

If we can turn a silk purse into a sow's ear we will do !

[DCFC1388]

Just seen on Coventrys local paper that their rearranged game vs Rotherham is potentially April 15th with their game after moving to the Sunday. So Rotherhams fixtures could be -

Sat 10th - Huddersfield (A)

Tues 13th - QPR (H)

Thurs 15th - Coventry (H) TBC

Sun 18th - Birmingham (H) TBC

Weds 21st - MBoro (H)

So Rotherham will have 4 straight home games but will have 5 games in 12 days

In that period we will have 3 games

Edited March 23, 2021 by DCFC1388

[Brammie Steve]

On 22/03/2021 at 07:53, BramcoteRam84 said:

Some posters saying we’re relying on other teams?! When I last checked we were out the bottom 3 with 8 games to go. We are a long way from relying on other teams results. We’ve had poor runs under Rooney already yet turned it around and had a good run, what’s to say it won’t happen again?

People are dismissing Coventry. They’ve not exactly been great since they beat us. All the other teams down there are stuttering.

48 points IMO should be enough. We’ve got 8 games with some home games where our form has been good. We are 1 of 6 (possibly 7 teams) with a chance of going down competing for 1 place. I quite fancy those odds. 
 

Still in our own hands, we’re more than capable. But we also must improve recent performances. 
 

 

Disagree on one point.

Some teams are ssstammering rather than ssstuttering!

(Our motor is merely spluttering and needs hammering!)

Edited March 23, 2021 by Brammie Steve

[Rammy03]

Just been on the sheffield wednesday forum and found this...

 

"I think Derby are going to plummet. Rooney knows nothing about relegation scrapes or defending actually. DM has been in plenty of relegation fights in his career. He'll set us up not to get beat and nick a few wins here and there at the training ground over the next 10 days. Bottom 3 Wycombe, Birmingham. Derby."

 

I think a lot of teams will be looking at us thinking we're going to blow it. They will love to see a big club go down. Need to develop a siege mentality for the run in Wayne.

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

15 minutes ago, Rammy03 said:

Just been on the sheffield wednesday forum and found this...

 

"I think Derby are going to plummet. Rooney knows nothing about relegation scrapes or defending actually. DM has been in plenty of relegation fights in his career. He'll set us up not to get beat and nick a few wins here and there at the training ground over the next 10 days. Bottom 3 Wycombe, Birmingham. Derby."

 

I think a lot of teams will be looking at us thinking we're going to blow it. They will love to see a big club go down. Need to develop a siege mentality for the run in Wayne.

Sheff Wed have Watford and Cardiff up next and can't see them getting more than a point from those if their lucky. That leaves them needing 5 wins in 7 and maybe another draw.  This guys clutching at a very big straw. We might go but they'll be below us. 

[Amberram]

Time to get this show on the road and start climbing out of this awful mess.

Time to be strong!

 

[Spanish]

On 15/03/2021 at 13:13, Spanish said:

I think they are already beyond that stage, the game against Coventry hasn't been re arranged yet.  it looks like they only have 2 options which will be Thursday 15/4 or 6/5.  I would imagine the league will want to get this game sorted out before the last week of the season just in case there is a mysterious further covid event

 

8 hours ago, DCFC1388 said:

Just seen on Coventrys local paper that their rearranged game vs Rotherham is potentially April 15th with their game after moving to the Sunday. So Rotherhams fixtures could be -

Sat 10th - Huddersfield (A)

Tues 13th - QPR (H)

Thurs 15th - Coventry (H) TBC

Sun 18th - Birmingham (H) TBC

Weds 21st - MBoro (H)

So Rotherham will have 4 straight home games but will have 5 games in 12 days

In that period we will have 3 games

Bump

[strawhillram]

9 hours ago, DCFC1388 said:

Just seen on Coventrys local paper that their rearranged game vs Rotherham is potentially April 15th with their game after moving to the Sunday. So Rotherhams fixtures could be -

Sat 10th - Huddersfield (A)

Tues 13th - QPR (H)

Thurs 15th - Coventry (H) TBC

Sun 18th - Birmingham (H) TBC

Weds 21st - MBoro (H)

So Rotherham will have 4 straight home games but will have 5 games in 12 days

In that period we will have 3 games

All their games look winnable, even in a tight space of time

Edited March 24, 2021 by StrawHillRam

[Ghost of Clough]

8 hours ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

Sheff Wed have Watford and Cardiff up next and can't see them getting more than a point from those if their lucky. That leaves them needing 5 wins in 7 and maybe another draw.  This guys clutching at a very big straw. We might go but they'll be below us. 

Just assuming Rotherham, Birmingham and Coventry maintain their 1 ppg average over the rest of the season, they'll al be around that 46-48 point range after that final game.

That means Sheff Weds would have to win 5 out of their 9 games at the very minimum, 6 wins would be more realistic. I just can't see them beating the drop.

We need 3 wins or 2 wins and 2 draws from 8 games. That doesn't sound too hard to achieve

[Wolfie]

This international break is going to feel very long indeed........

[Rampage]

10 hours ago, DCFC1388 said:

Just seen on Coventrys local paper that their rearranged game vs Rotherham is potentially April 15th with their game after moving to the Sunday. So Rotherhams fixtures could be -

Sat 10th - Huddersfield (A)

Tues 13th - QPR (H)

Thurs 15th - Coventry (H) TBC

Sun 18th - Birmingham (H) TBC

Weds 21st - MBoro (H)

So Rotherham will have 4 straight home games but will have 5 games in 12 days

In that period we will have 3 games

Difficult to imagine us finishing above Rovrum on our present form.

[Rampage]

39 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Just assuming Rotherham, Birmingham and Coventry maintain their 1 ppg average over the rest of the season, they'll al be around that 46-48 point range after that final game.

That means Sheff Weds would have to win 5 out of their 9 games at the very minimum, 6 wins would be more realistic. I just can't see them beating the drop.

We need 3 wins or 2 wins and 2 draws from 8 games. That doesn't sound too hard to achieve

It sounds harder than it did seven games ago GofC

[WhiteHorseRam]

3 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

We need 3 wins or 2 wins and 2 draws from 8 games. That doesn't sound too hard to achieve

"Don't worry men, they couldn't hit a barn door from th- "

 

I have to say I have a bad feeling now about this season. It's all about momentum, and I can't detect any.

[AGR]

13 hours ago, DCFC1388 said:

Just seen on Coventrys local paper that their rearranged game vs Rotherham is potentially April 15th with their game after moving to the Sunday. So Rotherhams fixtures could be -

Sat 10th - Huddersfield (A)

Tues 13th - QPR (H)

Thurs 15th - Coventry (H) TBC

Sun 18th - Birmingham (H) TBC

Weds 21st - MBoro (H)

So Rotherham will have 4 straight home games but will have 5 games in 12 days

In that period we will have 3 games

I'm officially starting to panic. Those fixtures look very winnable from a Rotherham point of view, even if they have few rest days I'd still back Rotherham to make up the 5 point difference with their 4 games in hand.

[Ghost of Clough]

54 minutes ago, WhiteHorseRam said:

"Don't worry men, they couldn't hit a barn door from th- "

 

I have to say I have a bad feeling now about this season. It's all about momentum, and I can't detect any.

Our form is bad, but those around us aren't doing too much better.

Points picked up from the last 8 games:
Sheff W - 4
Rotherham - 6
Derby - 6
Wycombe - 7
Coventry - 8
Birmingham - 10

Extrapolated over the rest of the season:
19 - Coventry - 48 pts
20 - Birmingham - 48 pts
21 - Derby - 46 pts
22 - Rotherham - 44 pts
23 - Sheff W - 37 pts
24 - Wycombe - 34 pts

[TigerTedd]

Just now, Ghost of Clough said:

Our form is bad, but those around us aren't doing too much better.

Points picked up from the last 8 games:
Sheff W - 4
Rotherham - 6
Derby - 6
Wycombe - 7
Coventry - 8
Birmingham - 10

Extrapolated over the rest of the season:
19 - Coventry - 48 pts
20 - Birmingham - 48 pts
21 - Derby - 46 pts
22 - Rotherham - 44 pts
23 - Sheff W - 37 pts
24 - Wycombe - 34 pts

21st by 2pts, I think we can all agree that’s a successful season. Well played everyone. 

[BondJovi]

1 minute ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Our form is bad, but those around us aren't doing too much better.

Points picked up from the last 8 games:
Sheff W - 4
Rotherham - 6
Derby - 6
Wycombe - 7
Coventry - 8
Birmingham - 10

Extrapolated over the rest of the season:
19 - Coventry - 48 pts
20 - Birmingham - 48 pts
21 - Derby - 46 pts
22 - Rotherham - 44 pts
23 - Sheff W - 37 pts
24 - Wycombe - 34 pts

Most of that hinges on Rotherham's games in hand. If they pick up some momentum, the games being close together could be a blessing. They also are the type of team that loves a fight. We don't.

I fear for us if we don't get a result against Luton. The pressure will really be on then.

 

 

[brady1993]

4 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Just assuming Rotherham, Birmingham and Coventry maintain their 1 ppg average over the rest of the season, they'll al be around that 46-48 point range after that final game.

That means Sheff Weds would have to win 5 out of their 9 games at the very minimum, 6 wins would be more realistic. I just can't see them beating the drop.

We need 3 wins or 2 wins and 2 draws from 8 games. That doesn't sound too hard to achieve

If all teams currently in the bottom 10 carry on their form of the past 10 games till the end of the season:

Blackburn 52 pts

Forest 52pts

Huddersfield 51pts

Preston 50pts

Rotherham 49pts*

Derby 47pts

Coventry 47pts

Birmingham 46pts

Sheff Weds 38pts

Wycombe 33pts

*It's worth noting the obvious that Rotherham have a lot of games in hand and it's hard to say how much the compressed fixture schedule will play a part.

Viewing things in that way I'd say it would take a remarkable turn around for Wednesday to avoid the drop, they'd have to change their current form to something like top 6 form. Going from 0.7 ppg to 1.7 ppg (or higher) is highly likely unfeasible and that's around what they would need to scrape out of this. 

The more pertinant question is what about us ? On the basis of that crude prediction it would have just scraping out of it and if things play out in a similar manner I think an awful lot will ride on that Birmingham fixture. What concerns me though is that our form has perhaps been dropping and if you exclude the first game of the last 10 it bring the points per game down from 0.9 to 0.67. If we look at it terms of calender months this is what it looks like (all months contain 6 games except January which had 4):

Dec 1.83 ppg

January 2.25 ppg

Feb 1.67 ppg

Mar 0.33 ppg

It's not the most robust to draw conclusions from that but does crudely suggest form has been trending downwards. Now I wouldn't expect it to be as bad has it has been in March but from a cursory analysis I do think we aren't the worst bet for going down right now. Personally I think we scrape through but I'm really not sure how much of that is personal bias coming into play. Honestly with a margin being as fine as it is it would needed something of a far more robust analysis to make something like a prediction.

I do think our form and situation is such that if I were chairman I'd be seriously considering whether based on all evidence available whether to back Rooney or change managers right now. Now would be the best time to do it if you felt it gave the best chance of survival purely because it is currently salvagable and there is time for coaching. Either way is a gamble which is hard to attach odds to with a deeper more comprehensive analysis (and perhaps knowing the internal situation of the club).

 

 

[brady1993]

8 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Our form is bad, but those around us aren't doing too much better.

Points picked up from the last 8 games:
Sheff W - 4
Rotherham - 6
Derby - 6
Wycombe - 7
Coventry - 8
Birmingham - 10

Extrapolated over the rest of the season:
19 - Coventry - 48 pts
20 - Birmingham - 48 pts
21 - Derby - 46 pts
22 - Rotherham - 44 pts
23 - Sheff W - 37 pts
24 - Wycombe - 34 pts

Beat me too it. 

I think a lot is going to depend on how much the last 5 games specifically is going to be indicative of our form going forwards as our form has been seemingly going from bad to worse.