Match Thread: vs Portsmouth (a)

[ap04]

2 hours ago, Crewton said:

Here's what the xGBots have been waiting for. I wonder if AP04Bot knows what those big circles right infront of goal mean?

I watched the actual game -as I assume did you- so have 100% of the info, why on earth would I downgrade to an estimate of what I just watched? Why use a pre-shot model when I have the post-shot version that actually happened?

xG is an estimate for teams or games you haven't watched (and even then it's very hit-and-miss if not useless for individual games)

 

2 hours ago, Crewton said:

A great example of the flaws of xG when used in isolation. It gives 0.15 or less for 3 of the goals (which should always measure 1), just 0.1 for their open goal (as close to a goal as it can get), 0.15 for the Nelson, Collins and Cbt openings which were all poor attempts (and 2 of which in the same sequence), and zero for their penalty claim which if given would be almost 1.

 

[AGR]

14 hours ago, Steadybreeze said:

If there was VAR we wouldnt have beaten Bolton 1-0

If there was VAR we would be fighting for the title with Ipswich and Leeds, having drawn with Sheff Wed last season

[PuP]

Hi, Pompey supporter with our take on lasts nights game. I think the weather made the game less of a spectacular affair but the players, from both teams, put on a really good display. I thought Derby adapted to the conditions better than Pompey where the conditions negated the effectiveness of our wingers Lane and, especially, Kamara. I suppose you could say the same for Blackett-Taylor & Mendez-Lang, both players I would have liked Pompey to have signed. I think Derby quite possibly had the greater attacking threat on the counter in the first half whereas ours was a little laboured due to not being able to adapt to the conditions. I read with interest of the disagreement with your managers choice of the tactics in the second half. However, without a wonder goal he may well have got it right. Closing players down in those conditions was risky as slipping on the surface could let players in. Portsmouth usually play a closing down game but not so much last night. I think overall a draw was a fair result last night which probably benefits us more than your lot. 

I think the controversial situations were fairly evenly spread out. There was a handball leading up to our equaliser and I think VAR might have ruled out our first goal. Handling the ball by the keeper is a sending off offence normally but I think the ref got it right by allowing for the conditions. I don't think it was a 'nailed on penalty' because I think our player was looking to go down anyway, but on another day it could be given.

I thought it was a proper game of football from two famous old clubs. It was good to see the ground full with a decent away following that made themselves heard, which is normally difficult at Fratton Park. The game, allowing for the conditions, was a good advert for League One where both teams look ready for the Championship. 

[S8TY]

1 hour ago, DavesaRam said:

YES CBT did try and put a bit of a defensive shift in as well. Very impressive, last night!

He was slightly better but still not good enough defensively

On one occasion Korey Smith had to berate CBT as he stood and watched as Smith got played around and didn't go with his man, much better performance from CBT Dave but defensively has to do better still 

[Comrade 86]

17 minutes ago, PuP said:

Hi, Pompey supporter with our take on lasts nights game. I think the weather made the game less of a spectacular affair but the players, from both teams, put on a really good display. I thought Derby adapted to the conditions better than Pompey where the conditions negated the effectiveness of our wingers Lane and, especially, Kamara. I suppose you could say the same for Blackett-Taylor & Mendez-Lang, both players I would have liked Pompey to have signed. I think Derby quite possibly had the greater attacking threat on the counter in the first half whereas ours was a little laboured due to not being able to adapt to the conditions. I read with interest of the disagreement with your managers choice of the tactics in the second half. However, without a wonder goal he may well have got it right. Closing players down in those conditions was risky as slipping on the surface could let players in. Portsmouth usually play a closing down game but not so much last night. I think overall a draw was a fair result last night which probably benefits us more than your lot. 

I think the controversial situations were fairly evenly spread out. There was a handball leading up to our equaliser and I think VAR might have ruled out our first goal. Handling the ball by the keeper is a sending off offence normally but I think the ref got it right by allowing for the conditions. I don't think it was a 'nailed on penalty' because I think our player was looking to go down anyway, but on another day it could be given.

I thought it was a proper game of football from two famous old clubs. It was good to see the ground full with a decent away following that made themselves heard, which is normally difficult at Fratton Park. The game, allowing for the conditions, was a good advert for League One where both teams look ready for the Championship. 

Fairs pal. Thought it was a good game between two sides, both with enough about them to escape this league. Hopefully we'll be back at your place next season, but in the Championship this time.

If you could ask your lads to put one on Bolton though, we'd all be much obliged 🤣 

[Crewton]

12 minutes ago, PuP said:

Hi, Pompey supporter with our take on lasts nights game. I think the weather made the game less of a spectacular affair but the players, from both teams, put on a really good display. I thought Derby adapted to the conditions better than Pompey where the conditions negated the effectiveness of our wingers Lane and, especially, Kamara. I suppose you could say the same for Blackett-Taylor & Mendez-Lang, both players I would have liked Pompey to have signed. I think Derby quite possibly had the greater attacking threat on the counter in the first half whereas ours was a little laboured due to not being able to adapt to the conditions. I read with interest of the disagreement with your managers choice of the tactics in the second half. However, without a wonder goal he may well have got it right. Closing players down in those conditions was risky as slipping on the surface could let players in. Portsmouth usually play a closing down game but not so much last night. I think overall a draw was a fair result last night which probably benefits us more than your lot. 

I think the controversial situations were fairly evenly spread out. There was a handball leading up to our equaliser and I think VAR might have ruled out our first goal. Handling the ball by the keeper is a sending off offence normally but I think the ref got it right by allowing for the conditions. I don't think it was a 'nailed on penalty' because I think our player was looking to go down anyway, but on another day it could be given.

I thought it was a proper game of football from two famous old clubs. It was good to see the ground full with a decent away following that made themselves heard, which is normally difficult at Fratton Park. The game, allowing for the conditions, was a good advert for League One where both teams look ready for the Championship. 

I agree with your assessment of the game, apart from regarding Wildsmith's handball. It's only a red card if he's denied a clear and obvious goalscoring opportunity, which it wasn't because he caught the ball well inside the penalty area, with Nelson between him and Bishop and more Derby players than Pompey around. I think the ref judged that correctly.

Hopefully see you next season in the Championship!

[Crewton]

48 minutes ago, ap04 said:

I watched the actual game -as I assume did you- so have 100% of the info, why on earth would I downgrade to an estimate of what I just watched? Why use a pre-shot model when I have the post-shot version that actually happened?

xG is an estimate for teams or games you haven't watched (and even then it's very hit-and-miss if not useless for individual games)

 

A great example of the flaws of xG when used in isolation. It gives 0.15 or less for 3 of the goals (which should always measure 1), just 0.1 for their open goal (as close to a goal as it can get), 0.15 for the Nelson, Collins and Cbt openings which were all poor attempts (and 2 of which in the same sequence), and zero for their penalty claim which if given would be almost 1.

 

[sage]

2 hours ago, DavesaRam said:

It was in Chris Martin's day!

Because of the other work he did 

[sage]

1 hour ago, ap04 said:

I watched the actual game -as I assume did you- so have 100% of the info, why on earth would I downgrade to an estimate of what I just watched? Why use a pre-shot model when I have the post-shot version that actually happened?

xG is an estimate for teams or games you haven't watched (and even then it's very hit-and-miss if not useless for individual games)

 

A great example of the flaws of xG when used in isolation. It gives 0.15 or less for 3 of the goals (which should always measure 1), just 0.1 for their open goal (as close to a goal as it can get), 0.15 for the Nelson, Collins and Cbt openings which were all poor attempts (and 2 of which in the same sequence), and zero for their penalty claim which if given would be almost 1.

 

Good Lord. The quality of the shot itself has no bearing on the xg.

It's the percentage chance of each chance scoring.

 

[PuP]

I look on our opponents sites to gauge what people think on their games with us and general points of veiw. A common phrase is 'how are they (Pompey) top ot the league' which is sometimes what we ask ourselves, but this is taking into account our injuries this season. How we have managed to keep competitive when, at one point, we had 13 players out who would normally be in the match day squad. Most clubs will obviously get injuries and I understand Derby have had their fair share as well. I don't think opposing supporters take that into account when assessing their games with us.

Most fans sites seem to think we are up and, I suppose, it's fair to say that looking at the table it is definitely ours to lose. I note the words 'keeping Pompey honest' is used by yourselves and supporters of Bolton. As  a Pompey supporter I worry that we could still mess up and we still need to win more games.

I also note your discussions on how your team would fare in the Championship, much the same sort of discussions we have. I think we have several players out who will be able to make the step up but I do feel the club have signed players this season with League One very much in mind. My feeling is that we would need to sign at least 4 or 5 experienced Championship players should we get there.

[Millenniumram]

1 hour ago, ap04 said:

I watched the actual game -as I assume did you- so have 100% of the info, why on earth would I downgrade to an estimate of what I just watched? Why use a pre-shot model when I have the post-shot version that actually happened?

xG is an estimate for teams or games you haven't watched (and even then it's very hit-and-miss if not useless for individual games)

 

A great example of the flaws of xG when used in isolation. It gives 0.15 or less for 3 of the goals (which should always measure 1), just 0.1 for their open goal (as close to a goal as it can get), 0.15 for the Nelson, Collins and Cbt openings which were all poor attempts (and 2 of which in the same sequence), and zero for their penalty claim which if given would be almost 1.

 

You really have absolutely no idea how xG works, do you?

[rammieib]

36 minutes ago, Crewton said:

I agree with your assessment of the game, apart from regarding Wildsmith's handball. It's only a red card if he's denied a clear and obvious goalscoring opportunity, which it wasn't because he caught the ball well inside the penalty area, with Nelson between him and Bishop and more Derby players than Pompey around. I think the ref judged that correctly.

Hopefully see you next season in the Championship!

I was expecting a yellow for Wildsmith. How he got away with nothing was quite surprising - but then again, he also let their guy take out Sibley early on with no booking,

To be fair to the ref - despite the handball, he tried to let the players play as much as possible.

[PuP]

40 minutes ago, Comrade 86 said:

Fairs pal. Thought it was a good game between two sides, both with enough about them to escape this league. Hopefully we'll be back at your place next season, but in the Championship this time.

If you could ask your lads to put one on Bolton though, we'd all be much obliged 🤣 

I will do my best. I think we will still be needing to win games then anyway. 

[PuP]

39 minutes ago, Crewton said:

I agree with your assessment of the game, apart from regarding Wildsmith's handball. It's only a red card if he's denied a clear and obvious goalscoring opportunity, which it wasn't because he caught the ball well inside the penalty area, with Nelson between him and Bishop and more Derby players than Pompey around. I think the ref judged that correctly.

Hopefully see you next season in the Championship!

OK, please forgive my ignorance as I thought handball outside the area was a red card. In any case it would have been harsh and I think the ref was right in allowing for the conditions rather than see it as a deliberate act.

[Ram-Alf]

18 minutes ago, Millenniumram said:

You really have absolutely no idea how xG works, do you?

Oooo I don't know, He's done enough posts to have learned by now 

[Chris_Martin]

2 hours ago, ap04 said:

I watched the actual game -as I assume did you- so have 100% of the info, why on earth would I downgrade to an estimate of what I just watched? Why use a pre-shot model when I have the post-shot version that actually happened?

xG is an estimate for teams or games you haven't watched (and even then it's very hit-and-miss if not useless for individual games)

 

A great example of the flaws of xG when used in isolation. It gives 0.15 or less for 3 of the goals (which should always measure 1), just 0.1 for their open goal (as close to a goal as it can get), 0.15 for the Nelson, Collins and Cbt openings which were all poor attempts (and 2 of which in the same sequence), and zero for their penalty claim which if given would be almost 1.

 

that's not how it works

 

[CapeTownRams]

3 hours ago, Crewton said:

The Offside - it certainly looks like it.

The handball - he even moved his arm to control it.

Actually from that shot he looks onside to me: no complaints 

[Patrick Rams]

3 hours ago, VulcanRam said:

I don't think at any stage they have claimed to support Derby? I've always assumed it's just someone from another club enjoying a bit of wummery.

In an earlier post he/she said "WE scored two goals"...still think there's wummery involved.

 

 

 

Edited April 3 by Patrick Rams

[CapeTownRams]

6 hours ago, TINMANTED said:

Is nats drop in form purely a drop,or is it side effect of cbt in the side,who I thought had his best game so far last night and looked for the first time the player we thought we were getting 

Not agreeing or disagreeing- but in what sense is it a ‘side effect’ ? Genuine question 👍

[Premier ram]

Was at the game last night , left the ground a very proud Ram , thought the lads gave us everything, big shout out for Korey Smith , he’s got back in the side and his application and tenacity has been first class a very underrated player imo