Match Thread: vs Bolton Wanderers (H)

[ap04]

1 hour ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

at some point all of that has to indicate we deserve to be where we are even if there’s been good and bad luck along the way. 

You are underestimating the impact of luck and how slowly it evens out. Remember these events are independent, once one gets lucky they are not more likely to get unlucky in the future (gambler's fallacy). Last year we were hard done by in the region of 17 points, should have been third or fourth and didn't even make the playoffs.

 

1 hour ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

Nowhere near it? Sure…

 

 

 

All I see is Wildsmith's hand 30cm to half a metre away from the bar with the ball virtually on the by-line, so unless his reflexes are something approaching the speed of light he ain't getting there.

 

1 hour ago, CBX1985 said:

The second thing to consider is the linesman is directly in line with Waghorn.  He had the perfect "live" view and said there was nothing untoward.

Have I read this right, the guy with the perfect view of Waghorn's lee arm was the one whose angle was blocked by not just every player in between but...Waghorn himself?

[Ghost of Clough]

1 hour ago, ap04 said:

Net chances per game against the league's average opponent on neutral ground. By xG, demonstrably the best metric to evaluate past performance in the public domain once you haven't followed a team's games.

'Net chances per game based on xG' has us above Bolton

Net chances per game based on actual goals has us top of the league (also known as goal difference).

Of course, total goals for/agaisnt over a season doesn't show how consistent a side is. They could win 5-0 one week, then loss 1-0 the next and have an average of 2.5vs0.5 and have 3 points.
Meanwhile, another side could win 2-1 one week and 1-0 the next resulting in 1.5vs0.5 but have 6 points.

Your method of judging sides says the first team is better, depsite having half the points.

[Ghost of Clough]

3 minutes ago, ap04 said:

All I see is Wildsmith's hand 30cm to half a metre away from the bar with the ball virtually on the by-line, so unless his reflexes are something approaching the speed of light he ain't getting there.

Or, Wildsmith had full sight of the ball from when the corner was taken, and could see it was never going to go in...

[Caerphilly Ram]

1 minute ago, ap04 said:

You are underestimating the impact of luck and how slowly it evens out. Remember these events are independent, once one gets lucky they are not more likely to get unlucky in the future (gambler's fallacy). Last year we were hard done by in the region of 17 points, should have been third or fourth and didn't even make the playoffs.

 

All I see is Wildsmith's hand 30cm to half a metre away from the bar with the ball virtually on the by-line, so unless his reflexes are something approaching the speed of light he ain't getting there.

 

Have I read this right, the guy with the perfect view of Waghorn's lee arm was the one whose angle was blocked by not just every player in between but...Waghorn himself?

I’m not underestimating anything, I’m looking factually at the reality of where we currently sit in the table. Which is second. Based on actual results of actual games that have been determined and recorded in history. 
I’ve wasted enough of my Sunday with this. I hope one day we turn out to be the statistically neutral side you are so keen to see, for me I’ll carry on supporting the team based on the more enjoyable and romantic aspects of the sport, you know, like scoring goals and winning games. Good luck to ya! 

[Comrade 86]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

'Net chances per game based on xG' has us above Bolton

Net chances per game based on actual goals has us top of the league (also known as goal difference).

Of course, total goals for/agaisnt over a season doesn't show how consistent a side is. They could win 5-0 one week, then loss 1-0 the next and have an average of 2.5vs0.5 and have 3 points.
Meanwhile, another side could win 2-1 one week and 1-0 the next resulting in 1.5vs0.5 but have 6 points.

Your method of judging sides says the first team is better, depsite having half the points.

 xG is only a credible means of analysis when it shows us in a poor light. On all other occasions, it can be safely ignored.

You're welcome! 😋

[FlyBritishMidland]

2 hours ago, ap04 said:

Net chances per game against the league's average opponent on neutral ground. By xG, demonstrably the best metric to evaluate past performance in the public domain once you haven't followed a team's games.

 

Ignore the result mate, Wilson heading it in is just one moment of the performance, it doesn't "cancel" the remaining 95'.

 

This is simply not true, he was nowhere near it.

I’ve bit.  I’m sorry but what a load of…………nonsense.  Firstly, leagues average opponent at a neutral ground.  What does that even mean.  Neutral ground - what a totally pointless statement as football isn’t played at neutral grounds.

Secondly, ignore the result.  What world does that happen.  As far as I know, it’s results that determine the league table and teams end up where they deserve over 46 games. Yes, you’ve read that right, deserve based on results not some made up statistics.

Thirdly, well I think @Caerphilly Ram has posted the evidence in response to that.

[CBX1985]

23 minutes ago, ap04 said:

You are underestimating the impact of luck and how slowly it evens out. Remember these events are independent, once one gets lucky they are not more likely to get unlucky in the future (gambler's fallacy). Last year we were hard done by in the region of 17 points, should have been third or fourth and didn't even make the playoffs.

 

All I see is Wildsmith's hand 30cm to half a metre away from the bar with the ball virtually on the by-line, so unless his reflexes are something approaching the speed of light he ain't getting there.

 

Have I read this right, the guy with the perfect view of Waghorn's lee arm was the one whose angle was blocked by not just every player in between but...Waghorn himself?

I said: The second thing to consider is the linesman is directly in line with Waghorn.  He had the perfect "live" view and said there was nothing untoward.

 

What the linesman  saw I do not know.  What I do know is that the linesman was a few paces to the side of Elder, directly in line with the action.  Maybe there was an obstructed view, but he was directly in line.  He was watching the action.  He did not see it. 

[Foreveram]

35 minutes ago, ap04 said:

You are underestimating the impact of luck and how slowly it evens out. Remember these events are independent, once one gets lucky they are not more likely to get unlucky in the future (gambler's fallacy). Last year we were hard done by in the region of 17 points, should have been third or fourth and didn't even make the playoffs.

 

All I see is Wildsmith's hand 30cm to half a metre away from the bar with the ball virtually on the by-line, so unless his reflexes are something approaching the speed of light he ain't getting there.

 

Have I read this right, the guy with the perfect view of Waghorn's lee arm was the one whose angle was blocked by not just every player in between but...Waghorn himself?

Todays catch 

[strawhillram]

45 minutes ago, Foreveram said:

@Red_Dawn

Isn’t she a Rams fan?

[Foreveram]

1 minute ago, strawhillram said:

Isn’t she a Rams fan?

Probably, just hasn’t come out yet 😉

[Wolfie20]

6 hours ago, Wanderlust said:

OK just for you, it was handball.

But the reality is we created the better chances and didn't take them, and a lot of credit has to go to your goalie. Equally, the responsibility lies with our strikers who are simply not as ruthless as our usual starters, especially Dion Charles.

As I mentioned during the match when we were battering you but couldn't score in a brothel, it was obvious that you'd get a scabby goal to win it which you did, but that's football folks - you don't always get what you deserve, and we didn't deserve to lose that, not that you care.

The irony is that it was Kane Wilson who was credited with the goal - a player we'd agreed a fee with Brizzle to sign, but didn't in the end as his personal terms and wage demands were too high for us, so he came to you instead.

Anyhoo, onwards and sideways.....

With that sour attitude I'm now hoping Peterborough beat you in the playoffs, or better still, Lincoln do.

[Wolfie20]

5 hours ago, ap04 said:

Sounds like you only saw the stats, I'll sum it up for you but if you watched the game or the extended ignore it. We had one chance in the entire second half -you read that right- plus two half-chances in the first, nothing else of note; the other way keeper pulled two worldies, they hit the bar and came close at least a couple more times (50'-64'). Now I would agree the above against a tough opponent is "solid" if we were mid-table or lower, for an aspiring top 2/3 side at home I would call it "a stinker".

So be humble, accept we got the rub of the green (as has been the case numerous times this season, I make it win #9 where we haven't been the better side - 18 points right there for those who like their points and ppgs), be grateful for the result and move on, no need to get all snidey. Spare the gloating and glorifying for when we are actually decent and worthy winners, not after smash-and-grabs on our own turf. My tuppence anyway.

You still don't realise how bloody boring (and mostly irrelevant) your posts are. Feel free to continue - I'll just move on to the next one on the page.

[Phoenix]

The goal was hardly a 'Hand of God' moment (or may be it was!)

As for whether it was a goal, I would parody the umpire's comment when the great W G Grace told him 'That was never out!'

'Read tomorrow's paper'

[ram59]

1 hour ago, strawhillram said:

We are all Derby fans on this forum. Why else visit and post and even register

I think that we need to face facts that there is at least one person on here, whose sole purpose is to wind everybody up. By replying to their posts, you are only encouraging them further.

A collective placing that person on ignore will starve them of their 'enjoyment' of ruining everybody else's.

[silverback]

After past criticisms I felt it incumbent on myself to praise the glaringly obvious work done by the backroom and indeed the manager.

They had clearly decided to play in a way that cut off the passing through of their CB's and the boys grafted tirelessly to make it work.

The pivotal part of the game for us IMHO ,was that we had the ability to get in the crosses and from any deadball we piled on it.

Nelson went close from this and there were several occasions from corners which made me wonder where their CB's had gone.

Never seen so much panic, clearly the training ground has been utilised to the max this week.

So well done PW and the back room team and super well done to the squad, it has been many years since I felt so tense/excited at the game and seeing the West stand throw away  their zimmers made my heart gladden

 

COYR🦍

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DRBee]

21 hours ago, Comrade 86 said:

Today's game report told through the medium of gif....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

By far the best post in this thread  - it reaches the parts discussion of Xg doesn't touch.

[Wolfie20]

1 hour ago, strawhillram said:

We are all Derby fans on this forum. Why else visit and post and even register

But some aren't and yet do.

[VulcanRam]

7 minutes ago, ram59 said:

I think that we need to face facts that there is at least one person on here, whose sole purpose is to wind everybody up. By replying to their posts, you are only encouraging them further.

A collective placing that person on ignore will starve them of their 'enjoyment' of ruining everybody else's.

Indeed, the more people bite at their nonsense, the more they will get a kick out of winding people up. Just ignore it and they'll go away.

[strawhillram]

4 minutes ago, Wolfie20 said:

But some aren't and yet do.

Losers in more than one sense

[strawhillram]

13 minutes ago, ram59 said:

I think that we need to face facts that there is at least one person on here, whose sole purpose is to wind everybody up. By replying to their posts, you are only encouraging them further.

A collective placing that person on ignore will starve them of their 'enjoyment' of ruining everybody else's.

Tbh I like the bantz. Especially when we win