Where do you think we'll finish this season?

[plymouthram]

22 minutes ago, CapeTownRams said:

Look how often the top 7 play each , Hopefully this is right...

Pompey (5 matches out of 15 = 33%) -
Oxford (h)
Peterborough (a)
Barnsley (h)
Rams (h)
Bolton (a)


Derby (4 matches out of 16 = 25%)-
Stevenage (h)
Barnsley (a)
Bolton (h)
Pompey (a)

Bolton (6 matches out of 18 = 33%) - 
Barnsley (a)
Oxford (h)
Rams (a)
Stevenage (a)
Pompey (h)
Peterborough (a)

Peterborough (4 matches out of 17 = 23.4%)-
Stevenage (h)
Portsmouth (h)
Oxford (a)
Bolton (h)

Barnsley (3 matches out of 17 = 18%) -
Rams (h)
Bolton (h)
Pompey (a)


Stevenage (3 matches out of 18 = 17%)
Derby (a)
Peterborough (a)
Bolton (h)

Oxford (2 matches out of 16 = 12.5%)
Pompey (a)
Bolton (a)

 

Plenty to take from those stats….

Posh playing their few games mostly at home- but their pitch is crap like ours at the moment so that might not help them…

Bolton lots of games as expected…

Bottom line is that it’s all to play for and there will be many twists and turns….and we MUST beat Bolton at home and certainly not lose away at Pompey…
 

 

 

Looking at the above again I am not sure we want any of our big games to be at home- certainly not the way we are playing right now.

What u reckon ???

Also to add in the mix of these fixtures are Blackpool (with an outside chance of making a play-off spot), who are surprisingly the team with the best home form. They still have Pompey, Barnsley and Oxford at home, plus still have away games against Bolton, Peterboro and Derby.

[MaltRam]

42 minutes ago, ap04 said:

Posh last 3 xG 6.25-3.15 total shots ratio 62%

Derby last 3 xG 1.85-2.04 total shots ratio 51%

Illustrating nicely why xG is of limited interest. We got 6 points more than them, everything else is a sideshow.

[Ghost of Clough]

March 16th is a date for the diaries - Portsmouth vs Derby and Peterborough vs Bolton.
March in general has a few big games:
Portsmouth play 4 of the top 8 (Oxford, Blackpool, Peterborough and Barnsley), followed by us on April 1st.
Bolton currently have 4 of the top 8 (Barnsley, Oxford, Derby and Stevenage)
Peterborough have just Stevenage and Portmsmouth, whislt we have just Bolton and Blackpool (followed by Portsmotuh on April 1st)

Blackpool could even be out of the Playoff race by the end of the month - Oxford, Peterborough and Bolton to play in a 5 game run which also includes plus Peterbroguh in the EFL Trophy. Their last 2 games were Stevenage and Bolton (in the EFL Trophy) so there squad will be pushed to the limit. However, we hope they'll take some important points off our rivals as they cling to the playoff dream.

Bolton also still have 9 of the other 11 top half sides to play by the end ofthe season.

Looking at who play who and when, my prediction is:
1st: Derby
2nd: Portsmouth
3rd: Peterborough
4th: Bolton

[Comrade 86]

And yet Posh 5th, Portsmouth 11th and Oxford 13th.

Hmmm... 🤓

[ap04]

1 hour ago, MaltRam said:

Illustrating nicely why xG is of limited interest. We got 6 points more than them, everything else is a sideshow.

'The discrepancy between two metrics shows why the one I agree with is right', great argument there.

[Tamworthram]

1 hour ago, plymouthram said:

Also to add in the mix of these fixtures are Blackpool (with an outside chance of making a play-off spot), who are surprisingly the team with the best home form. They still have Pompey, Barnsley and Oxford at home, plus still have away games against Bolton, Peterboro and Derby.

Blackpool’s home “form” is slightly distorted by the fact that they have played one or two more games at home than everyone except Charlton and Exeter.

[MadAmster]

42 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

March 16th is a date for the diaries - Portsmouth vs Derby and Peterborough vs Bolton.
March in general has a few big games:
Portsmouth play 4 of the top 8 (Oxford, Blackpool, Peterborough and Barnsley), followed by us on April 1st.
Bolton currently have 4 of the top 8 (Barnsley, Oxford, Derby and Stevenage)
Peterborough have just Stevenage and Portmsmouth, whislt we have just Bolton and Blackpool (followed by Portsmotuh on April 1st)

Blackpool could even be out of the Playoff race by the end of the month - Oxford, Peterborough and Bolton to play in a 5 game run which also includes plus Peterbroguh in the EFL Trophy. Their last 2 games were Stevenage and Bolton (in the EFL Trophy) so there squad will be pushed to the limit. However, we hope they'll take some important points off our rivals as they cling to the playoff dream.

Bolton also still have 9 of the other 11 top half sides to play by the end ofthe season.

Looking at who play who and when, my prediction is:
1st: Derby
2nd: Portsmouth
3rd: Peterborough
4th: Bolton

March 16th sees Derby at home to Bolton. 3 of us over for the double header of Reading on the Tuesday and Bolton on the Saturday and 3 more arriving Friday for the Bolton game the next day.

We play at Pompey an April 1st.

Edited February 7 by MadAmster

[MaltRam]

24 minutes ago, ap04 said:

'The discrepancy between two metrics shows why the one I agree with is right', great argument there.

If you like.

I should add in my defence that I'm swayed towards preferring points return over xG because that's what they use to construct the actual league table with.

Seems more important to me somehow, but you do you brother.

[Ghost of Clough]

16 minutes ago, MadAmster said:

March 16th sees Derby at home to Bolton. 3 of us over for the double header of Reading on the Tuesday and Bolton on the Saturday and 3 more arriving Friday for the Bolton game the next day.

We play at Pompey an April 1st.

I confused myself somewhere. As you say, we host Bolton on the 16th, but Peterborough also host Portsmouth.

[Carnero]

1 hour ago, Comrade 86 said:

And yet Posh 5th, Portsmouth 11th and Oxford 13th.

Hmmm... 🤓

Below Leyton Orient? LEYTON ORIENT?! WTF!

Warne out, now!

[Oldben]

IF we beat Barnsley, Bolton and Portsmouth that gives us a good chance at promotion.

[Tamworthram]

46 minutes ago, Oldben said:

IF we beat Barnsley, Bolton and Portsmouth that gives us a good chance at promotion.

That's a bold statement. 😊

[ram59]

We're getting to the interesting stage of the season, where it's not about the opposition but about ourselves. The teams who are successful will be the ones coping with the pressure best.

The opposition may be fighting relegation and giving it everything, defying their lowly position, teams with nothing to play for may play with the freedom of pressure and play better for it, other opponents at the top will be going for it.

If I've learnt anything from all the failed years of trying to get into the premier, it is that you can't pre judge how the opposition will play on any day.

[Dean (hick) Saunders]

Any opponent in top half can be really dangerous. I think how we and others do against top 6 is important but not necessarily the most decisive factor. If you deal well with everyone else then a defeat against a top rival is less likely to be damaging.

Edited February 8 by Dean (hick) Saunders

[Tamworthram]

33 minutes ago, Dean (hick) Saunders said:

Any opponent in top half can be really dangerous. I think how we and others do against top 6 is important but not necessarily the most decisive factor. If you deal well with everyone else then a defeat against a top rival is less likely to be damaging.

Teams in the bottom third (or so) can also be really dangerous as they’re fighting for their survival in this division. I think all of the top 8 have probably unexpectedly tripped up against much lower teams and dropped points. It supports the theory that there are no easy games. We ought to beat Shrewsbury on Saturday and I expect us to but I won’t be feeling comfortable until the final whistle blows and we’ve won or we’re three or four goals up (or a couple of goals up with only minutes to play).

Strangely, I think how the other top 7 teams fare against each other could be the most decisive factor for our end of season position (assuming of course our results don’t fall off a cliff or we don’t win pretty much every remaining game).

[ap04]

19 hours ago, MaltRam said:

because that's what they use

I see, so if say in athletics they start measuring in "goals" (perfect throw/jump 1 imperfect cr*p and everything in between 0) because it's more entertaining or the only practical way, you'll prefer it over the current system or your eyes'/a computer's rough estimate, because "it's what they use".

Or, if after just three Premium Bond draws you earn nought or thousands that's all that matters in deciding how good they are, everything else such as expected value in the long run is "just a sideshow". Fair enough!

[Wolfie]

4 minutes ago, ap04 said:

I see, so if say in athletics they start measuring in "goals" (perfect throw/jump 1 imperfect cr*p and everything in between 0) because it's more entertaining or the only practical way, you'll prefer it over the current system or your eyes'/a computer's rough estimate, because "it's what they use".

Or, if after just three Premium Bond draws you earn nought or thousands that's all that matters in deciding how good they are, everything else such as expected value in the long run is "just a sideshow". Fair enough!

[MackworthRamIsGod]

22 hours ago, Comrade 86 said:

And yet Posh 5th, Portsmouth 11th and Oxford 13th.

Hmmm... 🤓

Interesting.

If teams were to carry on with current form, highly unlikely I know...the top 6 would look like this come the end.

1. Derby

2. Bolton

3. Portsmouth

4. Barnsley

5. Peterbrough

6. Orient the suprise 

[Ram-Alf]

21 hours ago, MadAmster said:

We play at Pompey an April 1st.

This has to be a joke...right?

[MaltRam]

7 hours ago, ap04 said:

I see, so if say in athletics they start measuring in "goals" (perfect throw/jump 1 imperfect cr*p and everything in between 0) because it's more entertaining or the only practical way, you'll prefer it over the current system or your eyes'/a computer's rough estimate, because "it's what they use".

Or, if after just three Premium Bond draws you earn nought or thousands that's all that matters in deciding how good they are, everything else such as expected value in the long run is "just a sideshow". Fair enough!

I think you're in danger of diasppearing up your own chuff mate.

Your athletics analogy is too convoluted for me to cope with, I'm afraid. My best guess is that you're saying my rejection of xG means I'd approve of ruining athletics if they ruined athletics because the new style ruined athletics would be official? Have a lie down.

I can at least see where youre going with the Premium bonds bit, but Ernie is amenable (just) to statistical evaluation and it's the same every time. Football isn't like that.

xG can put a statistical veneer on the "how did he miss that" chats that happen after every game. It can't tell you a deal beyond that...certainly not compared to points won.