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Where do you think we'll finish this season?


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Taking a look on the Transfermrkt form table of the last 16 games of League 1 over the past 10 seasons (forgetting 19/20 season) the average form of the top two teams is 10 wins 4 draws 2 losses. Anything slightly less than that and it's sketchy. Only Ipswich last year and Sheff Utd in 16/17 were unbeaten over this last stretch of the season.

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On 07/02/2024 at 16:03, Tamworthram said:

Blackpool’s home “form” is slightly distorted by the fact that they have played one or two more games at home than everyone except Charlton and Exeter.

Their away form is pants, even though they smashed Pompey 4-0 back in November. But regardless of the fact they have played more home games than most teams, they still have only lost 3 at home. Thats only bettered by 3 teams who have only lost 2 home games. They have a say in the promotion race, with Bolton, Barnsley and Pompey to play at home. I personally don't think they will make the play-offs, but whilst they have an outside chance, they could still do damage to other promotion contenders.

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Current Predicted table according to footballwebpages.co.uk 

Interesting how they have us not losing another game from now on in but still missing out on the Top 2. They have got us drawing 5 more away games and only winning 1 more.

image.thumb.png.5998067ee2bf902883e7a7d726c6df43.png

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12 minutes ago, eddielewis said:

Current Predicted table according to footballwebpages.co.uk 

Interesting how they have us not losing another game from now on in but still missing out on the Top 2. They have got us drawing 5 more away games and only winning 1 more.

image.thumb.png.5998067ee2bf902883e7a7d726c6df43.png

2 draws in 17 away games so far and 6 in 32 overall suggests to me we wont draw another 5 away games. To only win 1 away game out of 6 is odd too - 4 of those being Bristol Rovers, Cambridge, Wycombe, and Northampton

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2 hours ago, eddielewis said:

Current Predicted table according to footballwebpages.co.uk 

Interesting how they have us not losing another game from now on in but still missing out on the Top 2. They have got us drawing 5 more away games and only winning 1 more.

image.thumb.png.5998067ee2bf902883e7a7d726c6df43.png

I think they’ve sat on the fence a bit with their predictions. If my maths is correct, I reckon they have Portsmouth drawing 38% of their remaining games (compared to 27% year to date), Derby on 42% (compared to 19%), Bolton 25% (17%), Barnsley 44% (29%), Peterborough 33% (26%) and Oxford 36% (22%).

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Interesting remaining fixtures for the current top 7 teams.

PORTSMOUTH 13 to play, 7 against current top half teams(4 away 3 home) and 5 of them 7 games are against the current top 7.

DERBY 14 to play, 8 against current top half teams (4 away 4 home) and 4 of them against the current top 7.

BOLTON 16 to play, 8 against current top half teams (6 away 2 home) and 6 of them against the current top 7.

BARNSLEY 15 to play, 7 against current top half teams (3 away 4 home) and 4 of them against the current top 7.

PETERBOROUGH 15 to play, 8 against current top half teams (3 away 5 home) and 4 of them against the current top 7.

OXFORD 14 to play, 7 against current top half teams (2 away 5 home) and 4 of them against the current top 7.

STEVENAGE 15 to play, 7 against current top half teams (4 away 3 home) and 5 of them against the current top 7.

Other current stats, Bolton have 9 away matches to play with their fixture pile up and are playing every Tuesday/Saturday right up to Easter weekend (could take it's toll with tired and injured players). Peterborough are still involved in the EFL Trophy and still have a postponed game against Portvale to be given a date. Their last 5 matches are also testing with Orient(A), Fleetwood(H), Oxford(A), Bristol(A) and Bolton(H). Stevenage have the worse home record, having only won 6 at home, Plus they have only scored 46 goals so far. Oxford have lost the most (nine) in the top 7 and have been inconsistent. So with current and previous form, remaining matches I'm now going to stick my neck out and state the Rams will finish in the top 2 places and if we can improve our home form with 8 to play at Pride Park we could finish on top.

 

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