Derby vs Port Vale

[IlsonDerby]

7 hours ago, Foreveram said:

Brighton are in Europe cos their owner has put hundreds of millions of pounds in to the club.

So did our previous owner 😂 

they’re in Europe because he knows what to spend his money on 

[Sparkle]

5 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Teams that recruit better players have better teams? Thanks for the fantastic insight.

Don't think anyone is disputing that, just the notion that the only reason Derby are in League One is because of bad recruitment. 

If you can't see any other factors that played a part, I'd suggest its you with your head buried somewhere, not necessarily the sand, and not others.

We got in a major mess because initially we recruited badly which was followed be recruiting stupidly 

I consider Clement did the bad recruitment and Morris allowed the stupid recruitment when we were looking at the poor finances 

[G STAR RAM]

5 minutes ago, Sparkle said:

We got in a major mess because initially we recruited badly which was followed be recruiting stupidly 

I consider Clement did the bad recruitment and Morris allowed the stupid recruitment when we were looking at the poor finances 

Its not the reason we ended up in League One though. 

That is because MM got fed up of using us as his train set.

[angieram]

2 hours ago, Ellafella said:

Love this ^ . You even can spot me …”We’re on our wayyyy! We’re on our way…”

I'm just put of shot, bottom right hand corner. 

[Bris Vegas]

58 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Hopefully we don't have to play Chelsea next season then when they are inevitably relegated due to their poor recruitment.

Chelsea won't go down unless they get a monster points deduction. 

[Bris Vegas]

56 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Teams that recruit better players have better teams? Thanks for the fantastic insight.

Don't think anyone is disputing that, just the notion that the only reason Derby are in League One is because of bad recruitment. 

If you can't see any other factors that played a part, I'd suggest its you with your head buried somewhere, not necessarily the sand, and not others.

Well that isn't what I'm saying, and having good players doesn't always make a good team. I'm pretty sure we went over this when Nigel Pearson was in charge and was playing Will Hughes out of position.

Derby are in League One because of bad recruitment. The factors mentioned are consequences of bad recruitment.

Clubs don't go into administration off the back of good recruitment. They go into administration because they have overspent on players who don't perform to the standard needed to justify spending such amounts. Spending 40k a week on players like Darren Bent and Curtis Davies wouldn't be an issue if they fired us to promotion. 40k a week is a modest PL wage. But they made us worse. They performed inferiorly to players who were on $15k a week. And they had no resale value.

 

[jono]

9 hours ago, Leicester Ram said:

Do you not think spending 30 odd million plus and not making any money back might have had something to do with going into administration 😂

Indeed, but it’s worth remembering that most of us believed Mel was bank rolling the club from his own pocket. Rather than borrowing money secured against the stadium. And, whatever the rights and wrongs of the running of the club it was the deduction of points that got us relegated. The car got wrecked because it hit a brick wall .. the fact that the tyres bursting lead to that is secondary. The rules enforced by the EFL got us relegated nothing else. That was the brick wall.
Perhaps it was a deserved punishment but that’s a second argument

[Mucker1884]

3 hours ago, Ellafella said:

https://t.co/yjM6SI1TVF

 

3 hours ago, Ellafella said:

Love this ^ . You even can spot me …”We’re on our wayyyy! We’re on our way…”

 

I'd like the words to this, if anyone can oblige.
I've sat in my NE seat for weeks straining...

... to hear what the SS is actually singing!

 

Sounds great, but ducked if I know what's going on!  🙄

[Bris Vegas]

50 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Its not the reason we ended up in League One though. 

That is because MM got fed up of using us as his train set.

Because MM couldn't continue to pump money into the club to cover the losses occured by.... Drum roll please.... bad recruitment.

 

[Ellafella]

3 hours ago, Ellafella said:

Love this ^ . You even can spot me …”We’re on our wayyyy! We’re on our way…”

I’m 75% up {upper quarter} after 3 seconds, white coat arms behind my back and it was a hairs on the back of my neck moment as the volume of 3,000 Rams hit 11 on the scale. 

[Bris Vegas]

5 minutes ago, jono said:

Indeed, but it’s worth remembering that most of us believed Mel was bank rolling the club from his own pocket. Rather than borrowing money secured against the stadium. And, whatever the rights and wrongs of the running of the club it was the deduction of points that got us relegated. The car got wrecked because it hit a brick wall .. the fact that the tyres bursting lead to that is secondary. The rules enforced by the EFL got us relegated nothing else. That was the brick wall.
Perhaps it was a deserved punishment but that’s a second argument

The EFL only enforced said rules because Derby under MM were trying to find loopholes around FFP because we had overspent and had gone beyond the accepted profit and sustainability rules. And the reason we went over is because of bad recruitment. Of course the points deduction got us relegated. But there were a series of events that led to the points deduction.

And at the very top of the tree is poor recruitment.

All the events lead back to the summer of 2015/16. We had a squad of players with a wage bill of around 18 million per year and had finished 3rd and 8th the previous two years. Many recognised the reason we fell away in 2014/15 was a lack of cover for key positions such as Martin, Thorne/Mascarell/Eustace and out wide to improve on the ageing Ward after injuries.

So we decided to then spend 25 million plus that summer on a new GK (Carson), RB/Utility (Baird), CB (Shackell and Pearce), midfield (Butterfield and Johnson, neither being holding midfielders), a wide player (Ince) who was probably the only player identified to fit the role needed, and two ST (Bent and Weimann) when we already had Martin and they were completely different moulds.

9 players signed. 25 million spent. And only one of those actually fit into our team and could be deemed an upgrade. That is woeful recruitment and started the trainwreck which culminated in our relegation to League One.

 

[Ellafella]

11 minutes ago, Mucker1884 said:

 

 

I'd like the words to this, if anyone can oblige.
I've sat in my NE seat for weeks straining...

... to hear what the SS is actually singing!

 

Sounds great, but ducked if I know what's going on!  🙄

“We’re on our wayyyy, we’re on our way! To the championship we’re on our way, how will we get there I don’t know, how will we get there I don’t care, all I know is Derby’s on their way…”. 

[Crewton]

28 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

Chelsea won't go down unless they get a monster points deduction. 

It's what he would have wanted.....

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

2 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

The EFL only enforced said rules because Derby under MM were trying to find loopholes around FFP because we had overspent and had gone beyond the accepted profit and sustainability rules. And the reason we went over is because of bad recruitment. Of course the points deduction got us relegated. But there were a series of events that led to the points deduction.

And at the very top of the tree is poor recruitment.

All the events lead back to the summer of 2015/16. We had a squad of players with a wage bill of around 18 million per year and had finished 3rd and 8th the previous two years. Many recognised the reason we fell away in 2014/15 was a lack of cover for key positions such as Martin, Thorne/Mascarell/Eustace and out wide to improve on the ageing Ward after injuries.

So we decided to then spend 25 million plus that summer on a new GK (Carson), RB/Utility (Baird), CB (Shackell and Pearce), midfield (Butterfield and Johnson, neither being holding midfielders), a wide player (Ince) who was probably the only player identified to fit the role needed, and two ST (Bent and Weimann) when we already had Martin and they were completely different moulds.

9 players signed. 25 million spent. And only one of those actually fit into our team and could be deemed an upgrade. That is woeful recruitment and started the trainwreck which culminated in our relegation to League One.

 

Know we hadn't.  Loopholes yes as used by every club from loaning 10 million quid players from parent clubs, selling a stadium to a family member, claiming you've overspent as you would have sold 30 million quid of youngsters if not for covid,  putting your debt into another business you own,  converting debt into shares you then sell to yourself at a higher rate than the debt. etc.  Ours was signed off and minimal in comparison to most of these whoppers. The rules were retrospectively changed after the EFL dragged us through the gutter, they then changed the rules further to give breathing space to clubs for covid on accounts we'd already lost points for.  We did not break any rules as ratified by an independent accountant at our first hearing, before the EFL's handpicked witchhunt.

You've added about 5 million on to that recruitment bill as well.  Take off another 6.2 mill for player sales on top. Not that excessive for 9 players.

We got relegated because a bloke worth twice our current chairman wouldn't foot the bill he needed to pay.  If he had, he'd have got most of it back on the club sale.  He got bored with his toy.  Nothing to do with recruitment.

[G STAR RAM]

19 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

The EFL only enforced said rules because Derby under MM were trying to find loopholes around FFP because we had overspent and had gone beyond the accepted profit and sustainability rules.

Id suggest you read the findings of the Independent Disciplinary Commission. 

[valakari]

We may have avoided all this if only we had beaten Aston Villa in the play off final..just a Kelle Roos away from the the Premier League..and then non of the administration and relegation would have happened..oh how history could have been re-written 😪

[G STAR RAM]

33 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

Because MM couldn't continue to pump money into the club to cover the losses occured by.... Drum roll please.... bad recruitment.

 

Evidence?

[Van der MoodHoover]

9 hours ago, RadioactiveWaste said:

I see xG is being debated.

Time to remind people that factual statistics (like Shots on target) are the input for the xG model, the output of the xG model depends on the inputs. Is the xG model any good? With zero knowledge of how that model is working, and I doubt the code would be shared openly by it's creators anyway, the confidance in xG appareas to be based on a consensus of "well everyone else buys into xG" rather than actual knolwedge of the xG model.

That doesn't mean the xG model is bad, or shouldn't be used as a useful indication of how effective a team's attacking has been, but it's a model output, not a factual statistic. On the one hand, it's likely to be consistent as the code is just running over the inputs to generate the xG number, on the other hand anyone watching the game and looking at the factual stats could (and probably does) run their own personal internal model and conclude "we deserved more than we scored" or "we were lucky everything went in and normally it doesn't" <etc>

Is xG a superior metric to shots on target? My take is they're different things and need be used differently. xG is not "the truth" but what factual statistics tell you about a game is very limited without further context.

The way to test the goodness of fit of any statistic is to do analyse the distribution of the actual vs expected. That is, the distribution of the residual (A-E)

You'd expect that shape to be the classic bell shaped curve. But the value of the mean, or peak of the curve, should be close to 0 with a relatively narrow dispersion around the mean for it to be seen as statistically "good".

[angieram]

I've got a really "out there" idea.

How about we use the matchday thread to discuss the match and take the other tedious debates over to other threads? 

Don't suppose it will ever catch on! 

[Mick Harford]

On topic of recruitment, and I think it had a massive impact on where we have ended up, never forget the role of Wasserman Media Group in all of this, Bent, Shackell, Butterfield, Brad Johnson, Blackman, Camara were all WMG clients at time of signing.

The same WMG that Sam Rush used to work for, any sensible person looked at the fees and thought that it seems like we overpaid.