Recovering 21pts: is it possible?

[JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta]

12 points? Maybe. 

21 points? Not a chance. 

We'd need to be having a 70 odd point season, which is beyond anything we could reasonably expect with our current squad.

[Rammy03]

24 minutes ago, Anag Ram said:

I'm not sure Bielik is going to play for us much. 

Once he's fit, there will be lots of clubs lining up for a bargain and we won't be in a position to resist. 

Hopefully we have an owner by then who realises that Bielik is the difference between being a League one club and a championship club

[TigerTedd]

Okay, so the general realistic consensus is that 21pts is impossible, but 12pts is possible. 

so riddle me this. If we could delay proceedings long enough on the 9pts that we could take them next season instead of this, would you take that?

the options are:

a) we take a 21pt deduction this season, definitely go down, but come back strong next season, and come back up for the 22-23 season on the crest of a wave. Running the risk that that doesn’t pan out and we end up like Ipswich, stuck in league 1.

b) we take 12pts this season, hoping to overcome it, and take 9pts next season, confident that if we can over come 12, we can overcome 9, and then in 22-23 season, we come back strong having had two reasonably good seasons and the feel good factor of having heroically overcome points deficits and defied the EFL against all odds. With the risk that we don’t overcome 12pts, and get relegated, and start league 1 with a 9pt deduction. 

although, it’s more likely to be option c, where on the last day of the season we find ourselves 8pts clear, and then the efl decide to deduct the extra 9pts. 

[Marriot Ram99]

Just now, JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta said:

12 points? Maybe. 

21 points? Not a chance. 

We'd need to be having a 70 odd point season, which is beyond anything we could reasonably expect with our current squad.

Last season 43 points stayed up , let's say 46 /47 is enough that would mean just under 70 would be enough which is just about possible if we can score more goals. Will need CKR back and in form. 

[Rammy03]

Just now, JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta said:

12 points? Maybe. 

21 points? Not a chance. 

We'd need to be having a 70 odd point season, which is beyond anything we could reasonably expect with our current squad.

Maybe, but again it depends on the individual season. If the bottom teams are really bad, then we could get away with having less than 70 points

[Rammy03]

3 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

Okay, so the general realistic consensus is that 21pts is impossible, but 12pts is possible. 

so riddle me this. If we could delay proceedings long enough on the 9pts that we could take them next season instead of this, would you take that?

the options are:

a) we take a 21pt deduction this season, definitely go down, but come back strong next season, and come back up for the 22-23 season on the crest of a wave. Running the risk that that doesn’t pan out and we end up like Ipswich, stuck in league 1.

b) we take 12pts this season, hoping to overcome it, and take 9pts next season, confident that if we can over come 12, we can overcome 9, and then in 22-23 season, we come back strong having had two reasonably good seasons and the feel good factor of having heroically overcome points deficits and defied the EFL against all odds. With the risk that we don’t overcome 12pts, and get relegated, and start league 1 with a 9pt deduction. 

although, it’s more likely to be option c, where on the last day of the season we find ourselves 8pts clear, and then the efl decide to deduct the extra 9pts. 

Option b. I think we'll survive with minus 12. Going down to league one would be a disaster and there's no guarantee we'd come straight back.

[QuitYourJibbaJivin]

If we were more clinical, we’d have no problem staying up with the 12 point deduction. A normal season we would be on course for 60 points, for a team that was tipped for relegation by every man and his dog and who bookies weren’t even offering odds on, it’s phenomenal. An extra 9 would take it away from us though I fear, 5 or 6? Maybe. 
 

 

[Ambitious]

It's massively difficult, because it would likely mean us acquiring enough points that would see us close to the play-off positions, certainly to be 21 points ahead of 22nd. Last season, we would've needed 65 points which would've seen us 10th to be 21 (+1) ahead of Wycombe.

Not impossible, of course, but massively improbable. If we can get to January with the club in a decent condition then who knows. I think the term: take every game as it comes as never been so apt. We've got a run of games now where we can scrap with teams for wins - Swansea, Preston, Luton, Coventry, Blackburn, Barnsley & Millwall. All teams that we can beat on our day, of course they could easily beat us on their day, but we're going into each game thinking a win is very much possible. 

[ram59]

17 minutes ago, JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta said:

12 points? Maybe. 

21 points? Not a chance. 

We'd need to be having a 70 odd point season, which is beyond anything we could reasonably expect with our current squad.

I bet some Barnsley fans were saying the same thing at the start of last season, before they ended up with 78 points.

[Chris_Martin]

1 hour ago, Ted McMinn Football Genius said:

 

if we do manage to pull this off then someone should make a film about it.

 

Mel?

[brady1993]

I did a similar breakdown a couple games ago. The first thing to know is how many points would we need.

The average number of points needed to better to stay up over the past 5 seasons is 44.6 with a range of 40 to 51.

So the question following that is where will we land on that range ? I think we can get an idea of that from the teams above us in the table; there are 4 teams average less than a point per game with 3 teams going at 0.8 ppg. If you project that out you get those teams only making around 37 ponts. That's 4 teams expected to do no better than 37 points come the end of the season on current rate. Even with an amount of improvement in performance it suggest that the points total to beat this season is going to be low.

I think you can treat a point per game as a hard limit on what 22nd will finish up on come the end season i.e. 46 points and I think based on previous history it's reasonable to set a low limit of 40. So somewhere between 40 and 46 points is what I think we likely need.

With a 21 points deduction we'd then need somewhere between 61 and 67 (assuming we only need to match the points tally because of goal difference). Currently (ignoring the deductions for a second) we'd have been on course for 60 points with our ppg meaning we'd need to improve a little to get another 1-7 points out of the remainding games.

To my mind that looks theoretically possible. Ultimately though I don't think it's likely because it needs an awful lot to go right in terms of injuries, fitness, an overall improvement in performance, not to get asset stripped in January and morale staying high after another points deduction.  

[ramboy63]

2 hours ago, TigerTedd said:

When we’re thinking about points deductions, we’re thinking optimistically that 12pts is recoverable. But 21pts, no chance. Statistically 12pts has never been done before, we’d be making history just to overturn that deficit, so there’s no chance we could do 21pts.

So I just assumed that getting an extra 21pts on top of a what we need for safety must be something akin to automatic promotion form. Like the gulf between relegation and promotion must be something like 20pts right?

So I took a look at last seasons table. We survived by a point on 44pts. And extra 21pts would have put us on 65pts, just ahead of Boro in 10th.

the season prior was a bit more high scoring.  The safety mark was 48 (Barnsley had 49, but I think it’s safe to assume that if we’re on at least mid table form, then our goal difference should be better than everyone else in the relegation zone). Another 21pts would take us to 69pts which would be 8th, just above Millwall. 

so it’s not that ridiculous to think, if we keep doing what we’re doing, we could be on form for a 10th to 8th place finish. Especially as we’re currently playing without a bunch of our best players (CKR, Bielik) so you’d hope we’d have better form throughout the season, not worse. 

Yes without doubt its doable although we are going to have to play top 6 type football utill then end of the season,if we do get more points deducted ie 9 more will that knock the players confidence even further and accept the inevitable and more importantly the free signings we got only have a 6 month contract there is no guarantee the likes of Ravel Morrison will sign on for a further 6 months.

There is still a lot of if buts and maybes but the season is still young and when there is still hope there is a chance and if we do  achieve the impossible and stay in this division you would have to say Rooney would be right up there for manager of the season 

 

[Mihangel]

Of course it's possible, we're not far off from  going at the right rate, had we nicked on the win on Saturday we'd be where we need to be in terms of points per game so clearly not impossible but it will be very difficult.

[TheresOnlyWanChope]

Almost impossible. Unrealistic however. A bit like Leicester winning the league. More worried about if there is still a club in a year rather than if we can survive a points deduction like that. 

[Ted McMinn Football Genius]

1 hour ago, ramboy63 said:

Yes without doubt its doable although we are going to have to play top 6 type football utill then end of the season,if we do get more points deducted ie 9 more will that knock the players confidence even further and accept the inevitable and more importantly the free signings we got only have a 6 month contract there is no guarantee the likes of Ravel Morrison will sign on for a further 6 months.

There is still a lot of if buts and maybes but the season is still young and when there is still hope there is a chance and if we do  achieve the impossible and stay in this division you would have to say Rooney would be right up there for manager of the season 

 

I think a settled Ravel and Jags will certainly sign a 6 month extension. This project is a once in a lifetime opportunity. Ravel Morrison may have found his base to express himself and along with our unity as a club (management, players and supporters) its an appealing project to be part of and a no lose situation for them both

[Tamworthram]

1 hour ago, brady1993 said:

I did a similar breakdown a couple games ago. The first thing to know is how many points would we need.

The average number of points needed to better to stay up over the past 5 seasons is 44.6 with a range of 40 to 51.

So the question following that is where will we land on that range ? I think we can get an idea of that from the teams above us in the table; there are 4 teams average less than a point per game with 3 teams going at 0.8 ppg. If you project that out you get those teams only making around 37 ponts. That's 4 teams expected to do no better than 37 points come the end of the season on current rate. Even with an amount of improvement in performance it suggest that the points total to beat this season is going to be low.

I think you can treat a point per game as a hard limit on what 22nd will finish up on come the end season i.e. 46 points and I think based on previous history it's reasonable to set a low limit of 40. So somewhere between 40 and 46 points is what I think we likely need.

With a 21 points deduction we'd then need somewhere between 61 and 67 (assuming we only need to match the points tally because of goal difference). Currently (ignoring the deductions for a second) we'd have been on course for 60 points with our ppg meaning we'd need to improve a little to get another 1-7 points out of the remainding games.

To my mind that looks theoretically possible. Ultimately though I don't think it's likely because it needs an awful lot to go right in terms of injuries, fitness, an overall improvement in performance, not to get asset stripped in January and morale staying high after another points deduction.  

I agree avoiding the drop with a 21 point deduction would be incredibly difficult but, to try and put a positive spin on it, 67 points equates to 1.46 PPG. Obviously, we have currently earned 1.3 PPG.

COYR

[BramcoteRam84]

If 44/45 pts is the benchmark to stay up again I’d say even with a 21 point deduction it’s possible to survive. Issue is looking at how season has started, i think it could be a competitive division means points are spread around and therefore it could be a high points total going down this season c.50-52 which basically would mean we need playoff form. That would only be possible if we had a new buyer kept this squad and we could bring in a top striker on loan.

I do think this team supported by the fans is so galvanised right now that they will overachieve their capabilities, its whether it will be enough. 
 

Either way how we’re going about it can only be positive for next season whichever division we’re in providing the off field issues are sorted.

[Kennington Ram]

It is vaguely but probably not achievable, but there is nothing to be gained by giving up hope.

There are intangibles. The ppg calculation and normal points required total is valid, but a tight-knit team that steadily reels back the points deficit to 6 or so could (could!) just go on a winning hot streak and string 4 or 5 wins together when games come thick and fast in the new year, and then the morale could see it through.

Also, if other 2 other teams were to get deductions (Reading, ?) then it does become a lot more possible.

Edited September 30, 2021 by Kennington Ram

[Arsene Titman]

 

 

20 minutes ago, Ted McMinn Football Genius said:

I think a settled Ravel and Jags will certainly sign a 6 month extension. This project is a once in a lifetime opportunity. Ravel Morrison may have found his base to express himself and along with our unity as a club (management, players and supporters) its an appealing project to be part of and a no lose situation for them both

Morrison is on a 12 month contract so , January transfer window permitting, we have him for the full season

[Tamworthram]

8 minutes ago, BramcoteRam84 said:

If 44/45 pts is the benchmark to stay up again I’d say even with a 21 point deduction it’s possible to survive. Issue is looking at how season has started, i think it could be a competitive division means points are spread around and therefore it could be a high points total going down this season c.50-52 which basically would mean we need playoff form. That would only be possible if we had a new buyer kept this squad and we could bring in a top striker on loan.

I do think this team supported by the fans is so galvanised right now that they will overachieve their capabilities, its whether it will be enough. 
 

Either way how we’re going about it can only be positive for next season whichever division we’re in providing the off field issues are sorted.

That is/was one of my worries but then I compared this season with last season after 10 game and it's looking pretty similar at the moment:

          Last season    This season

1st               22 pts           22 pts

2nd              20                 22

3rd               19                 20

4th               18                  19

5th               18                  18

6th               17                   16       

19th              10                   10

20th              9                     8

21st               9                     8

22nd             8                      8

23rd              7                      6

24th              6                       1

Early days yet especially when you remember the team in 19th position last season was Barnsley.

Having said that, still a very tough ask with the restrictions on our squad but let's hope the administrator can sweet talk the EFL.