Recovering 21pts: is it possible?

[Ramarena]

12 points- yes it’ll be tough but possible

21 points- no

[brady1993]

7 minutes ago, BramcoteRam84 said:

If 44/45 pts is the benchmark to stay up again I’d say even with a 21 point deduction it’s possible to survive. Issue is looking at how season has started, i think it could be a competitive division means points are spread around and therefore it could be a high points total going down this season c.50-52 which basically would mean we need playoff form. That would only be possible if we had a new buyer kept this squad and we could bring in a top striker on loan.

I do think this team supported by the fans is so galvanised right now that they will overachieve their capabilities, its whether it will be enough. 
 

Either way how we’re going about it can only be positive for next season whichever division we’re in providing the off field issues are sorted.

I get where you are coming from but I really don't see it. There are currently 5 teams on course for doing worse than that and in the case of 4 of those they are currently on course for doing significantly worse than that. I just don't see 3 of those teams turning it around to the extent that they at least end on 50 points and I think it's more likely that as the season wears on that a couple other teams get dragged down. As I mentioned elsewhere on the post I think 22nd will end up with somewhere between 40 and 46 this season.

I think this division is 3 stand out excellent teams, a whole pile of varying degrees of mediocre and then about 5 outright poor teams. 

[RadioactiveWaste]

Well, 71 points would be a very big ask of this team and that's what we'd have to win to finish with 50 points and a good chance of staying up. Give or take a few for possible other deductions and the eternal fact it's not how many points you have but having more than three other teams that counts.

SO just on paper basis, it's probably a longer than 1 in 20 shot. However, football isn't played on paper and the psychological effect of being on negetive points, at the foot of the table week after week after week with little hope of that changing can grind down moral and give other strugglers the boost that it's Derby + 2 others for relegation.

We just have to keep winning games and see how it goes, but also, see it as a no pressure situation - no one expects us to overcome it, so not overcoming it wouldn't be a disaster, but keeping an interest could have stange effects on things - e.g. the team and fans are really up for it.

[BramcoteRam84]

18 minutes ago, brady1993 said:

I get where you are coming from but I really don't see it. There are currently 5 teams on course for doing worse than that and in the case of 4 of those they are currently on course for doing significantly worse than that. I just don't see 3 of those teams turning it around to the extent that they at least end on 50 points and I think it's more likely that as the season wears on that a couple other teams get dragged down. As I mentioned elsewhere on the post I think 22nd will end up with somewhere between 40 and 46 this season.

I think this division is 3 stand out excellent teams, a whole pile of varying degrees of mediocre and then about 5 outright poor teams. 

A lot depends on what likes of Peterborough and Barnsley do. The former score goals so that could manifest itself in higher points, Barnsley were strong last season and could improve. Blackpool and Cov are exceeding expectations, Brum look more competitive as do Huddersfield and the mid table teams last season don’t look weaker. Forest I think are in a false position and will move up the league. That leaves Reading who are likely to get a points deduction, but as you could see last night they are a dangerous team who will win a fair few games.

On the PPG right now it looks good I agree but I think it could change because other than Hull possibly I don’t see any real stand out poor teams. Last season there were some pretty bad teams - including ourselves.

We will see.

[I know nuffin]

If we carry on fighting as they have done for the last 5 or 6 matches in particular, coupled with the administrators who are expert negotiaters we can hope. It is better to travel in hope , with our team's efforts, than to stay at home, give up and not support them. We the 12th men (or persons) are playing our part as well

[Ted McMinn Football Genius]

1 hour ago, Arsene Titman said:

 

 

Morrison is on a 12 month contract so , January transfer window permitting, we have him for the full season

??My bad, wasn’t aware that we had him on a 12 month contract. Thats a piece of good news ???? Keep em coming ?

[mrdave85]

I may be coming at this from the wrong angle, but I’m not looking at it as -12pts anymore.

As of today, we are 7pts from safety (or 20th at least) with 36 games to go, that is what should be looked at right now, no? Forget where we started, it doesn’t matter now, and 7pts sounds a whole lot more achievable than 12. 
 

Yes we are likely getting another 9pt deduction, and that will then become 16pts from safe as of today, but we haven’t had that hit us yet.

I’m hoping the lads will play without fear for the rest of this season. We were written off as relegated before a ball was kicked, so we’ve nothing to fear or lose when chasing these points.

COYR

[Yani P]

ive put a stats thread up a week or so ago to track it - 12 is doable so is 16..21 would be very tricky, we have finished 21 points clear of the relegation places 6 times since our last relegation so still a decent % albeit without the constraints we are under (although I would counter that with the bonus of how tight this squad is).

[brady1993]

26 minutes ago, BramcoteRam84 said:

A lot depends on what likes of Peterborough and Barnsley do. The former score goals so that could manifest itself in higher points, Barnsley were strong last season and could improve. Blackpool and Cov are exceeding expectations, Brum look more competitive as do Huddersfield and the mid table teams last season don’t look weaker. Forest I think are in a false position and will move up the league. That leaves Reading who are likely to get a points deduction, but as you could see last night they are a dangerous team who will win a fair few games.

On the PPG right now it looks good I agree but I think it could change because other than Hull possibly I don’t see any real stand out poor teams. Last season there were some pretty bad teams - including ourselves.

We will see.

On the flip side:

• Peterborough concede for fun and have the worst goal difference in the league. I think as the season goes on and the more hidings they get their confidence will evaporate.
• Barnsley have lost the manager that turned them from relegation fodder into a playoff team, I think we are seeing a revert to type from them.
• Forest is a hard call, I suspect they might get their heads above water and I don't suspect they will be as bad as they were in the first 6 games or so. However once the new manager bounce has somewhat faded I'm not entirely convinced they won't get dragged back into the mire.
• The likes of Blackpool could easily fade as the season goes

I just don't see 3 out Hull, Peterborough, Bansley, Forest and Swansea turning around their form to the point they end up on 50+ points. I do agree Reading likely get a points deduction and still pull their way clear.

I don't think it matters a huge amount though because even with those forecasts I think overcoming a 21 point deduction will likely be too much.

[Yani P]

Im also tracking v last season as we have so much room for improvement against our 2 diabolical runs of form (first 15 games and last 15)

Im very confident and the good thing is after 10 games 4th bottom is 8 points - identical in both seasons..and we are only 5 points off our total last year lol

[24Charlie]

Bournemouth survived a -17 deduction in league 2 in 2008 so I don’t understand this notion that minus 12 has never been done. Perhaps -12 hasn’t been done as in exactly -12 but as Bournemouth proved more that has survived. It was Eddie Howe who pulled that off.

There’s a documentary on YouTube about it. I think it might even be called -17.

[TigerTedd]

28 minutes ago, Yani P said:

Im also tracking v last season as we have so much room for improvement against our 2 diabolical runs of form (first 15 games and last 15)

Im very confident and the good thing is after 10 games 4th bottom is 8 points - identical in both seasons..and we are only 5 points off our total last year lol

Good point. Last season we gave ourselves a self imposed 40-odd point deduction by not turning up for those first 15 games, and still managed to scrape out of that one. 

[TigerTedd]

12 minutes ago, 24Charlie said:

Bournemouth survived a -17 deduction in league 2 in 2008 so I don’t understand this notion that minus 12 has never been done. Perhaps -12 hasn’t been done as in exactly -12 but as Bournemouth proved more that has survived. It was Eddie Howe who pulled that off.

There’s a documentary on YouTube about it. I think it might even be called -17.

Maybe it’s specifically the championship. But knowing that, now I want the -21pts. duck Bournemouth, anything they can do, we can do better. 

[LeedsCityRam]

I actually think the timing of a further deduction is as much an impediment as anything.

We currently have 12 points deducted but are now back into positive points & with a good October, could well be off the bottom. Its clear the situation has galvanised the team & our record of W3 D4 L3 is far better than any of us could have imagined at the start of August. We're also improving performance wise - watching us last night highlighted just how far we've come since the opening day.

Now to do the hard yards, drag ourselves back into the pack & then be cast adrift again by a further 9 points in Nov/Dec is something that psychologically is going to weigh heavy on the club & the players. It will also jeopardise our chances of being sold as prospective buyers still don't have the clarity they need to make an informed multi million pound investment.

We desperately need a resolution in the next 2 weeks - if its 9 points & the EFL still refuse to show clemency in view of their role in this fiasco, then the administrators are just delaying the inevitable by not accepting it asap. The business plan attached to a points deduction is a separate issue & would be largely imposed given we've gone into administration in the first place.

Assuming we get the 9 point deduction quickly & closure on the charge uncertainty, I think we will see a 'nothing to lose' attitude from the squad & management. As others have said, getting to 67-70 points on performance alone isn't totally outlandish looking at how well we're playing, no expectations on the team & with Bielik to return but the chances are still very slim. The longer the 9 points aren't deducted though, the harder this becomes.

[minesahartington]

No. Squad too thin and no effective striker

[minesahartington]

51 minutes ago, LeedsCityRam said:

I actually think the timing of a further deduction is as much an impediment as anything.

We currently have 12 points deducted but are now back into positive points & with a good October, could well be off the bottom. Its clear the situation has galvanised the team & our record of W3 D4 L3 is far better than any of us could have imagined at the start of August. We're also improving performance wise - watching us last night highlighted just how far we've come since the opening day.

Now to do the hard yards, drag ourselves back into the pack & then be cast adrift again by a further 9 points in Nov/Dec is something that psychologically is going to weigh heavy on the club & the players. It will also jeopardise our chances of being sold as prospective buyers still don't have the clarity they need to make an informed multi million pound investment.

We desperately need a resolution in the next 2 weeks - if its 9 points & the EFL still refuse to show clemency in view of their role in this fiasco, then the administrators are just delaying the inevitable by not accepting it asap. The business plan attached to a points deduction is a separate issue & would be largely imposed given we've gone into administration in the first place.

Assuming we get the 9 point deduction quickly & closure on the charge uncertainty, I think we will see a 'nothing to lose' attitude from the squad & management. As others have said, getting to 67-70 points on performance alone isn't totally outlandish looking at how well we're playing, no expectations on the team & with Bielik to return but the chances are still very slim. The longer the 9 points aren't deducted though, the harder this becomes.

We have to assume that prospective buyers are basing the offer on L1 next year. If we have to wait for clarity it may mean it drags on until the New Year and beyond. It could oddly be detrimental to do too well pre Xmas if buyers decide to wait and see. Horrible situation 

[Rampage]

Wayne said we can overcome the -12. We are playing for pride now. Welcome to the Alamo with Wayne Crockett at the helm. In the parallel universe where no points deductions are allowed, we are three points off the top six and getting better all the time.

[Rampage]

Statto dude. What is the greatest points deduction survived in that team not being relegated.

[LazloW]

Is it possible? Yes

Is it likely? No

[SouthernRam]

The worst case scenario, aside from getting liquidated, would be getting relegated and having further points deductions imposed in League 1.

If we can overcome -12 points, and I think we can, we will at least force the EFL’s hand into imposing more punishments this season. If they do, we can at least have a fair crack at promotion from League 1 next year.

Plus if we can get in new owners this year, we might even be able to retain many of our key young players. Bird, Knight, Watson, Buchanan and Ebosele would give us plenty to build on and be positive about.