kevinhectoring Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 7 hours ago, JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta said: 12 points? Maybe. 21 points? Not a chance. We'd need to be having a 70 odd point season, which is beyond anything we could reasonably expect with our current squad. I think 16- 18 is a more likely deduction and if that’s where we are, yes, I think we can stay up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUTSIDER Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 What's are the odds in bookies on staying up, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comrade 86 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Herculean effort required but the lads are clearly starting to gel nicely and Wazza is getting more right than wrong and doing so playing attractive football too. It's us against the world it seems and apparently that rather suits us. A simple but marginally more science-based evaluation suggests that 13 points from 10 games would give us a pre-deduction total of 60 points, a net 39. The current 26th place team, using the same basic formula, would secure only 37. A walk in the park then... Chuck into the mix that we have a few good'uns only just back and Bielik, CKR and Festy still to come; an improving coach, an identifiable and improving playing style, near fanatical support on game days, an increasing likelihood of new ownership and the possibility of fresh blood in January and it doesn't seem wildly far-fetched. Allied to this, the division looks some way off vintage this year and with other sides likely to be docked points too, it may be that we really could less survive with less than 40 points. A win and a clean sheet against Swansea and we'll have some real momentum. Anyway, about time we had a play-offs thread, isn't it! ? TigerTedd, Carnero, r_wilcockson and 2 others 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 In previous P&S cases, the P&S position of Birmingham and Sheff Weds was reset - so allowable losses were treated as £13m in the failed seasons. What I'm not sure about is whether seasons where a lower loss (or even a profit) was posted, if that was also reset to £13m. Seems harsh if so. How the points deductions should work out based on my calcs... 3 years to 2018 - £3.6m overspend = 4 points 15/16, 16/17, 17/18 allowable losses reset to £13m if previously higher (17/18 losses were lower) 3 years to 2019 - £3.8m overspend = 4 points 18/19 allowable losses reset to £13m 3 years to 2020 - £2.3m profit = 0 points 3 years to 2021 - £6m profit = 0 points 8 points penalty is therefore the starting point. Based on the DC reports, it would now be difficult to say there are aggravating factors. Potential mitigating factors such as acting on the belief we were working to an acceptable amortisation policy. 5 points with 3 suspended would be a reasonable conclusion in my opinion. Is it possible to recover 21 points? Doesn't matter... it'll be less. r_wilcockson, kevinhectoring, Carnero and 1 other 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonRam Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 YES!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistoldPete Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 19 minutes ago, 86 Hair Islands said: Herculean effort required but the lads are clearly starting to gel nicely and Wazza is getting more right than wrong and doing so playing attractive football too. It's us against the world it seems and apparently that rather suits us. A simple but marginally more science-based evaluation suggests that 13 points from 10 games would give us a pre-deduction total of 60 points, a net 39. The current 26th place team, using the same basic formula, would secure only 37. A walk in the park then... Chuck into the mix that we have a few good'uns only just back and Bielik, CKR and Festy still to come; an improving coach, an identifiable and improving playing style, near fanatical support on game days, an increasing likelihood of new ownership and the possibility of fresh blood in January and it doesn't seem wildly far-fetched. Allied to this, the division looks some way off vintage this year and with other sides likely to be docked points too, it may be that we really could less survive with less than 40 points. A win and a clean sheet against Swansea and we'll have some real momentum. Anyway, about time we had a play-offs thread, isn't it! ? Well if you want to be really positive , how about the last four games? 7 points from those, all teams who will be expecting to be near the top (apart from Reading maybe due to points deductions) . That's 80 points at the end of the season.. play off places form indeed, if not automatic! RoyMac5 and Comrade 86 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comrade 86 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, PistoldPete said: Well if you want to be really positive , how about the last four games? 7 points from those, all teams who will be expecting to be near the top (apart from Reading maybe due to points deductions) . That's 80 points at the end of the season.. play off places form indeed, if not automatic! Like your thinking there Pete! ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistoldPete Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said: In previous P&S cases, the P&S position of Birmingham and Sheff Weds was reset - so allowable losses were treated as £13m in the failed seasons. What I'm not sure about is whether seasons where a lower loss (or even a profit) was posted, if that was also reset to £13m. Seems harsh if so. How the points deductions should work out based on my calcs... 3 years to 2018 - £3.6m overspend = 4 points 15/16, 16/17, 17/18 allowable losses reset to £13m if previously higher (17/18 losses were lower) 3 years to 2019 - £3.8m overspend = 4 points 18/19 allowable losses reset to £13m 3 years to 2020 - £2.3m profit = 0 points 3 years to 2021 - £6m profit = 0 points 8 points penalty is therefore the starting point. Based on the DC reports, it would now be difficult to say there are aggravating factors. Potential mitigating factors such as acting on the belief we were working to an acceptable amortisation policy. 5 points with 3 suspended would be a reasonable conclusion in my opinion. Is it possible to recover 21 points? Doesn't matter... it'll be less. Sheff Wed got 6 points deducted for selling the stadium (mitigating factor). So we shouldn't be getting any penalty according to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike93rh Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 It's so frustrating because we're clearly a better side than last year with our best midfielder still to return. I hate seeing all the hope, Derby surviving this season would require something like top 4 form for almost 36 games. But that's not going to happen and come January we'll likely be having to sell half our team anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparkle Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 The EFL wanted Derby to get a points deduction - we have 12 currently - job done because without their involvement we wouldn’t have had the 12 as we would have been sold off and everyone paid and no one made redundant. The EFL openly stated they wanted Derby to be relegated - they have severely restricted us recruiting suitability / properly or even playing some of our own Academy lads - so basically job done. If the EFL want to punish us further for using our method of amortisation which was perfectly legal and Rick Parry at the EFL has already said he wants Amortisation taken out of the P&S calculations then the EFL can simply impose a suspended point deduction on that front and they can say it’s finished with and we can move on - they can also give us back the £100,000 fine. r_wilcockson 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jram Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Seeing as 18 out of 24 clubs have players wage bills over 100% of their entire revenue, I’m holding out hope that other clubs will be deducted points too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eccles the ram Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 24 minutes ago, Jram said: Seeing as 18 out of 24 clubs have players wage bills over 100% of their entire revenue, I’m holding out hope that other clubs will be deducted points too I am with you Jram. There are going to be a few squeaky bums in other championship clubs over the next few months. I think our 'situation' is only the tip of the iceberg. Am not itk but I would assume we are not the only club. If I were fans of other clubs, especially those who are currently gloating, I wouldn't be so rooster sure that everything is rosy! I believe we will have 'mini league' of clubs with deductions given to them fighting to stay in this league. Jram and Kathcairns 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerTedd Posted October 1, 2021 Author Share Posted October 1, 2021 45 minutes ago, mike93rh said: It's so frustrating because we're clearly a better side than last year with our best midfielder still to return. I hate seeing all the hope, Derby surviving this season would require something like top 4 form for almost 36 games. But that's not going to happen and come January we'll likely be having to sell half our team anyway. That’s it Mike, keep your chin up. Don’t let the buggers get you down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carnero Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 2 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said: In previous P&S cases, the P&S position of Birmingham and Sheff Weds was reset - so allowable losses were treated as £13m in the failed seasons. What I'm not sure about is whether seasons where a lower loss (or even a profit) was posted, if that was also reset to £13m. Seems harsh if so. How the points deductions should work out based on my calcs... 3 years to 2018 - £3.6m overspend = 4 points 15/16, 16/17, 17/18 allowable losses reset to £13m if previously higher (17/18 losses were lower) 3 years to 2019 - £3.8m overspend = 4 points 18/19 allowable losses reset to £13m 3 years to 2020 - £2.3m profit = 0 points 3 years to 2021 - £6m profit = 0 points 8 points penalty is therefore the starting point. Based on the DC reports, it would now be difficult to say there are aggravating factors. Potential mitigating factors such as acting on the belief we were working to an acceptable amortisation policy. 5 points with 3 suspended would be a reasonable conclusion in my opinion. Is it possible to recover 21 points? Doesn't matter... it'll be less. How confident are you in these calculations? 4 points for the 3 years to 2018 does agree to what Mel said in his radio interview. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksRam Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 44 minutes ago, mike93rh said: It's so frustrating because we're clearly a better side than last year with our best midfielder still to return. I hate seeing all the hope, Derby surviving this season would require something like top 4 form for almost 36 games. But that's not going to happen and come January we'll likely be having to sell half our team anyway. Keep the faith Mike. Yes it is frustrating but it's been like that for nigh on two years. Like you rightly say, we are clearly better. @86 Hair Islands summed it up nicely a few posts ago. We still have CKR, Festy and Bielik to come back. Others likely to get points deducted. It's generally a weaker league this year. And why won't it happen. As the late Jimmy Greaves said It's a funny old game. It's a cliché but we do it a game at a time. That's Rooney's focus, that's why he shows the team a form league, not the actual one. Our administrators remain extremely positive, with several buyers in the wings - despite the debt, and league position, we are extremely marketable, not least supported by: a team who themselves have reacted so positively to this debacle - a buyer would be taking on a dedicated, skilled, hard-working and professional team showing what I would say is unparalleled allegiance to a club a manager (plus his management team) who shows commitment to this club daily and absolutely refuses to throw in the towel a fan base that's second to none - who have reacted so positively despite all the frustration and anger caused by events, who are turning out by the bucket-load to support the club. the simple fact we are Derby - a club with a proud history, huge standing, massive potential..... We will rise stronger ?? Comrade 86, Kathcairns, Carnero and 4 others 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, Carnero said: How confident are you in these calculations? 4 points for the 3 years to 2018 does agree to what Mel said in his radio interview. I adjusted my figures for the 3 years to 2018 to roughly suit what he said. I had us down as about £400k inside the limit and knocked £4m off) There's a big margin of error in future years as I have to make assumption on wages, amortisation (and transfer profit), manager profit, compensation, variance in TV money, changes in sponsorship, Covid impact, and guessing possible changes to "Admin Expenses" Carnero 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinhectoring Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 3 hours ago, Sparkle said: The EFL openly stated they wanted Derby to be relegated Certainly there’s a faction that wants us relegated. As much as that they wanted MM to lose his shirt - which he has but when did the EFl openly state this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grumpy Git Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Who honestly would be surprised if the EFL didn't dock anyone else points this season just to make sure we're in the worst position possible? TigerTedd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ossieram Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Grumpy Git said: Who honestly would be surprised if the EFL didn't dock anyone else points this season just to make sure we're in the worst position possible? I'm waiting for them to start awarding points to teams like Hull once they can't take anymore off us. Reggie Greenwood and TigerTedd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodley Ram Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Lets face it, the only way to overturn 21 points is if there are others that have received significant points deductions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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