Recovering 21pts: is it possible?

[TigerTedd]

When we’re thinking about points deductions, we’re thinking optimistically that 12pts is recoverable. But 21pts, no chance. Statistically 12pts has never been done before, we’d be making history just to overturn that deficit, so there’s no chance we could do 21pts.

So I just assumed that getting an extra 21pts on top of a what we need for safety must be something akin to automatic promotion form. Like the gulf between relegation and promotion must be something like 20pts right?

So I took a look at last seasons table. We survived by a point on 44pts. And extra 21pts would have put us on 65pts, just ahead of Boro in 10th.

the season prior was a bit more high scoring.  The safety mark was 48 (Barnsley had 49, but I think it’s safe to assume that if we’re on at least mid table form, then our goal difference should be better than everyone else in the relegation zone). Another 21pts would take us to 69pts which would be 8th, just above Millwall. 

so it’s not that ridiculous to think, if we keep doing what we’re doing, we could be on form for a 10th to 8th place finish. Especially as we’re currently playing without a bunch of our best players (CKR, Bielik) so you’d hope we’d have better form throughout the season, not worse. 

[Taribo]

Nope 

[Taribo]

Sorry but you’re forgetting the absolutely threadbare squad made up of ancient players who will tire and pick up knocks, and academy grads who have barely played first team football - we still need to protect and ease these in gently 

[OUTSIDER]

lets give it a go is all i say, .......... i can here the chant next season already 

' -21 we started -21 how sh@t are you all , we didnt go down '

 

come on you rams  BELIEVE 

Edited September 30, 2021 by OUTSIDER

[PistoldPete]

Unfortunately if we end up getting deducted 21 points and these penalties stick unchallenged in the courts , our current sterling efforts on the pitch will be in vain i think.  There are no really bad teams in this League .. even Forest are picking up now. 

[rammieib]

No chance without a striker.

[Srg]

12, possibly, 21? No way.

EFL will decide we are getting too close anyway and tack on another 12 point deduction for still existing. 

[Sparkle]

There are about 16 teams capable of relegation this season which is the major contributing chance to our possibilities.

Teams like Cardiff have to be down the FFP route and future deductions as well if their owner is putting in £3 million a month as reported which might help as well 

Another issue is that most of those clubs cannot spend money to help their situation and may have to sell the odd player 

we don’t have the firepower to pick up the points we deserve so far this season but if by some stroke of fortune gets us the much needed goal scorer who knows? 

Could we possibly catch up 21 points and stay up ? I doubt it but I like the way we are trying our very best

we obviously need to avoid having to sell what we have currently in January as well.

Edited September 30, 2021 by Sparkle

[Sheff Ram]

Nope. Would take a miracle. 12 doable though.

[Rammy03]

It's not impossible. At the start of the season I said we'd finish mid table without any points deductions.

It all depends on the individual season and how good other teams are. If there is a low tide at the bottom then we have a chance. If the teams down the bottom turn out to be good, then the points gap between them and the top will be smaller, meaning we have little chance of survival.

However, people are forgetting that we're still only at the start of the season. There are 36 games to go. Plenty of time to claw it back.

Even if we do get another 9 points off, we can't just throw the towel in. And we won't. Football is a funny game sometimes. Anything can happen.

[Ted McMinn Football Genius]

Forever hopeful that we can scrap our way out of this.

1- we’ve eroded the -12 points already

2- we are hard to beat and well organised (it appears)

3- several other teams could well be compounded with some level of points deductions too

4- we have the best midfielder outside the Premier league due to return to our ranks by January ????

5- king CKR is due back in to the squad

6- if we get new owners before January then just maybe we can make a few additions ????

7- our fans are standing up to be counted and as a whole we are unified against everyone else (good old siege mentality) ??????
 

8- we have FORTRESS Pride Park

9- we have something to fight for

10- WE ARE DCFC NOW LETS HAVE IT ??????

if we do manage to pull this off then someone should make a film about it.

 

Edited September 30, 2021 by Ted McMinn Football Genius

[Donnyram]

8 minutes ago, Ted McMinn Football Genius said:

Forever hopeful that we can scrap our way out of this.

1- we’ve eroded the -12 points already

2- we are hard to beat and well organised (it appears)

3- several other teams could well be compounded with some level of points deductions too

4- we have the best midfielder outside the Premier league due to return to our ranks by January ????

5- king CKR is due back in to the squad

6- if we get new owners before January then just maybe we can make a few additions ????

7- our fans are standing up to be counted and as a whole we are unified against everyone else (good old siege mentality) ??????
 

8- we have FORTRESS Pride Park

9- we have something to fight for

10- WE ARE DCFC NOW LETS HAVE IT ??????

if we do manage to pull this off then someone should make a film about it.

 

The key point is finding a buyer before January….. without that we will have to sell players for sure.  With new owners you would hope we will be able to add a few loans / free agents that I’m sure Rooney will have lined up.  With that in place………… bring it on and enjoy the ride ??

[ollycutts1982]

Points per game is currently 1.3 so if maintained over the 46 games we’d be looking at 59/60 points. Less 21 points would be 38/39 points which wouldn’t be enough. We need a decent run of results and some back to back wins. Let’s hope the administrators can get the next penalty down to -6 or less then it may just be possible. If we can maintain this form until Xmas and get the EFL issue resolved and a takeover done then we can strengthen in Jan and kick on. Far too many ifs, buts and maybes to come over the next few weeks/months. 
 

If nothing else we’re in for a rollercoaster ride this season. 

[Marriot Ram99]

If we win on Saturday against a struggling Swansea side we'd be on track for the Playoffs in a non deduction season, if Bielik can have an impact like last season and we have luck with injuries then finishing outside the relegation zone with a 21 point deduction would be possible but still touch and go. With 12 points deducted I think barring injuries to key players or a January fire sale we have a good chance. 

Edited September 30, 2021 by Marriot Ram99

[Eddie]

Only if other clubs end up on the naughty step.

[Anag Ram]

2 minutes ago, Marriott Ram99 said:

If we win on Saturday against a struggling Swansea side we'd be on track for the Playoffs in a non deduction season, if Bielik can have an impact like last season and we have luck with injuries then finishing outside the relegation zone with a 21 point deduction would be possible but still touch and go. With 12 points deducted I think barring injuries to key players or a January fire sale we have a good chance. 

I'm not sure Bielik is going to play for us much. 

Once he's fit, there will be lots of clubs lining up for a bargain and we won't be in a position to resist. 

[Bald Eagle's Barmy Army]

Small squad but we’ve rotated quite well and also have more International breaks than normal, this could help. 
 

I’d say we have one of the most together squads we’ve seen in ages, we have a supporter group who are behind the team but also seem to be sticking together as well. I’ve not seen this unity at DCFC for years. 
 

Win on Saturday and we’ve gained enough points since the last break to say we could do it. If we can get to 12 points by the end of October and 20 by the end of November, get Bielik back and I’ll ask the EFL for another 9 point deduction just to show “WE ARE Derby”. 

[ram59]

9 minutes ago, Marriott Ram99 said:

If we win on Saturday against a struggling Swansea side we'd be on track for the Playoffs in a non deduction season, if Bielik can have an impact like last season and we have luck with injuries then finishing outside the relegation zone with a 21 point deduction would be possible but still touch and go. With 12 points deducted I think barring injuries to key players or a January fire sale we have a good chance. 

Agreed, a lot depends on the new owners and what additions can be made to the squad. A couple of good strikers would be massive. As it is we have got CKR and Bielik to add to this squad, hopefully before Xmas.

Statistically, we're already on target, we have gained 5 points from 10 matches on the relegation three, this would equate to 23 points gained over 46 games.

Unlikely, but certainly not impossible.

[Ram-Alf]

43 minutes ago, Ted McMinn Football Genius said:

if we do manage to pull this off then someone should make a film about it.

 

Yep, And it should be called "The Great Escape" i'd have Steve McQueen as the Manager in the lead role.

[DCFC27]

We have 13 points I so far… I’d say we need another 60 points - 20 wins. Takes us up to  73 pts - 21 = 52… I think generally you need about 47/48 point to stay up 36 games left. We can afford to drop points in only 16 games IMO. 
 

Real problem comes in January. We loose Morrison Jageilka and Baldock. CKR and Beliek don’t replace those three. At the very least we need Morrison. 
 

If we keep those players as well has a fit CKR and Beliek we have a good chance of making it interesting. 
 

Although it’s pretty early in the season still, Swansea on Saturday is a massive game and we need to get an back to back win. We have to. We need a few decent flurry’s of wins 2/3/4 on the bounce to have any chance of staying in this division. 
 

Takeover has got to happen before January, if it does we can keep hold of this squad and maybe add one or two quality additions.