brady1993

19 hours ago, Blondest Goat said:

I think there's some truth in this too. It did however work 3 times for Rotherham in this league.  I think the bigger question is how far it will take you in the championship but we can worry about that when we get there.  

I think this is flawed thinking though.

The weird thing is I do think eventually he'd be able to achieve promotion but I don't think that's the be all and all. I think we should be thinking more about how continually develop long term. How do we hit the ground running in the Championship? How do we develop? How do we start mounting a push for promotion to the premiership? 

These questions might seem premature but use the time correctly now and it will set us properly for that. Focus purely on promotion and we will flounder. And that's my main issue with Warne, I don't think he's setting us up for long term success and I don't think he's the person to guide us up through those stages as this level is likely around his limit.

The argument would have merit if he looked like he'd be a sure bet on fast promotion but most evidence doesn't point to that being true. Last season was below par. The close season has been not great and the start leaves a lot to be desired.

11 hours ago, SSD said:

Warne has pretty much echoed everything I thought about the last 3 games. It is not as if he's trying to cover it up with the usual manager phoned in answers (new team, time to gel, we go again etc etc). That would hack me off. Genuinely feelings, a good self awareness around the club. Nothing wrong with this. All the issues I think we have in the squad, Warne identified and knows what we require.

I have a feeling the penny dropped a little bit for him this week. At Rotherham if he had a bad run, he'd get away with it because there's little expectations. Coming to a much bigger club, with his pretty mediocre home record from the back of last season through to this season, fans are going to naturally become more frustrated. Bigger wage bill, bigger facilities, you have got to perform. As much as we want to believe it, time isn't on a manager's side.

We replaced an upcoming future manager, who wasn't getting much stick from our supporters because of the good reputation he built, with a more experienced outside name. If we was struggling near the foot of the table, I think Warne would get more credit. But because he's come in, with a squad which looks competitive on paper, there's more demand on him to succeed.

The main thing I want from Warne short term is to start winning more matches against those top 8/9 teams. We was dreadful in the majority of those matches last season and it ultimately cost us. His record against the little teams near the bottom have rarely cause us problems, we seem to beat these comfortably.

It's always been a niggle in the back of my mind. Why did he never keep Rotherham up, was it down to purely budget or his record against "better sides". I just want him to prove me wrong and get us firing.

I think it's both.

I hesitate to post this especially after a win. So know that I hope I'm wrong.

With the way Warne sets things up there is a heavy reliance on either having more quality than the opposition or being able to outwork oppostion/harass them into mistakes. I think this is why his record was good against "lesser" teams last year and its why we get unstuck against "better" teams.

Tactically what we employ is very basic and doesn't do much to get more out of the sum our parts as a team. Our pressing is aggressive but mindless and almost all of our build play amounts to get it wide, quickly and dont worry too much about working the ball or keeping it. So when we are a better/athletic team on paper gaps are more exploitable, it's easier to force possession errors and we are less prone to getting punished by a counter attack. Especially because the lower down the leagues a team is the more they have to decide between talent on the ball and athlecism.

This increasingly doesn't work against better teams as they are more able to keep the ball under pressure, let gaps open up in our midfield and then counter lethally.

And I think a lot of this is kinda unfixable without a major shift in outlook from Warne and his coaching staff. 

I can understand the sentiment of people saying it's only 2 games and he needs more time but that somewhat does right off the rest of his time here. The thing for me is that the more time that passes the more evidence stacks up in favor of niggling worries about his potential limitations and that some of his perceived strengths might not be present.

When he joined on the one hand you had his success at Rotherham, a seemingly good record at man management, experience in the division and that he would be able to build a young athletic team. On the other hand there were concerns over his style of play, his results in the Championship, whether he would be able to convert success from Rotherham and whether he head the necessary coaching ability in his staff.

He inherited a good squad and a 7th place finish was below par. Nothing awful but a finish were I think it was fair to ask questions. The bigger concerns for me though were less about the table. Tactically he looked limited, inflexible and like he had a naive view of the game. Coaching of players appeared to go backwards over the season who in a few cases looked rustier and more bereft of what to do as the season developed. And his management of player fitness levels was atrocious likely leading to unnecessary injuries. All of these factors played into the the poor results against decent teams. Frankly we were flat track bullies at best.

All of those issues have been front and centre in these first two games. So mix that with an uninspiring pre-season attaining players who won't likely kick on going into the championship and not really solving issues in the squad and mix in the interview from the other day. Its easy to feel less than enthusiastic about him as manager. 

At this point we've got enough evidence at his strengths and weaknesses and I don't think he's the right person going forwards. I think he could get us promoted eventually but I think in the process of it we will be set back quite significantly in our overall development and i think it will take a long time. Essentially I think it would cost a lot of the young talent at the club and we'd end up with a squad of aging journeymen. A squad in which we would find ourselves probably struggling to stay in the Championship especially given the lack of tactical and coaching acumen currently on display.

I said last year a view I'll reiterate. We need to look at things on the long term. We need to think how do we develop the club overall for sustainable success. How do we produce/acquire cheaply talent  and develop them so we aren't stuck at the whims of high fee spending to progress. How do we develop an identity and footballing ethos that allows the collective club to produce more than the sum of its parts. 

If you look at my previous posts i think its evident im not trigger happy. But at certain point you've got to cut your losses. The evidence points to Warne not fitting the remit and if finances allow I think it's time to move on in the hopes that we can retain the likes of Bird and salvage the rest of the rest of the transfer window.

On 26/06/2023 at 22:02, i-Ram said:

A few more for the list:

MafiaBob - some memory of a falling out, over Mel Morris iirc. Hope he is still keeping out of the Bookies, and doing his bit for non-gambling evangelism.

@Ellafella - probably just having some time out post-season, but I am missing his big words.

@cosmic - funny guy, but can't remember the last time i saw a post from him.

@Philmycock - always liable to lob a nice grenade into the piece. is he alright? @ossieram

@CornwallRam - not seen anything recently - although the clotted cream factory is probably busy this time of year.

@Rampage - What a guy

@Ken Tram - Whay a guy 2

@brady1993 - someone who wrote a lot of commonsense. Probably explains his/her absence.

TexasRam - large input into the Pub threads, and always very anti-Sky. I guess one way or another he is taking a lengthy bit of time out.

Hope to see a few more of them back on here sometime.

Lest we forget.

 

From my side its a mix of things coming together. The big ones being time, ability to watch games, being more wary over time on my phone and how it effects me mentally, moving to Australia, complex feelings over the club's direction and waning interest in paying attention.

On the football side of things I've been hesitant to chime in because I'm often catching up on games quite a bit after or not at all. And even then I feel like last season I'd have been repeating myself over and over, it just gets tiring to do it after a while. I just don't feel I have much interesting to add to a discussion that quite frankly I feel there often isn't much to discuss. 

I do feel like Warne is tactically naive, demonstrates a lack of appreciation for the game's complexity, doesn't seem to have the best technical coaching and isn't the best long term move. I do feel like he will end up effectively wasting a generation of really gifted academy players by turning us into a functional outfit. And I do feel like he underachieved last season and his position should be in question. 

But he's not going anywhere. He knows the type of players he wants to get to play the way he wants and that will almost be certainly good enough for this division  with his motivation skills and the club's resources. 

I think most people see some close variation on that and it mostly comes down to how each fan feels about the following as to how they come down on things:

Functional vs attractive football?

Possession vs kick n rush football?

Warnes skill at league 1 vs warne's ability to manage beyond that?

Are the academy players worth focusing around?

Success now vs more sustainable growth down the line ? 

I feel like if I know a fan's answer to those questions there isn't much for me to debate them over. It just becomes the same conversation over and over.

A lot of what interests in me in talking about football and Derby in general is direction and tactical stuff (or things adjacent to it like selection). The direction is pretty clear to me and it goes against what I personally would like to see and the tactics are pretty basic so there just isn't much to delve into.

To be clear I'm still a fan, I still want to see derby do well and I hope I'm wrong about Warne and wish him well. He seems a good person and I believe he's doing what he thinks is right be the club and because of that I don't like harping on him too too much. It's more I'm happy to take a more a distant following for now and I've often had periods like this since joining this forum.

4 hours ago, cannable said:

He is the next Nigel Pearson though.

He’s taken over a side that was trying to play football from the back, through the thirds and tried to get the playing a high-energy direct 4-4-2/4-4-1-1.

It just turns out the the players are more suited to it than first thought whereas under Pearson they weren’t!

I think there is a couple minor differences like; Pearson never really seemed to know what he actually needed to get what he wanted to work, Warne has inherited a stronger squad relative to the league and he's taking his time a bit more. 

But the biggest biggest difference is one of them is a really good man manager and the other well.... was Pearson. And whilst that can go a long way in general its critical if you are trying to overhaul a side from a style point of view.

23 minutes ago, jimtastic56 said:

Looks very attacking. Who is going to break up the Rovers play? Sibley “ Out of favour” with another manager.

Classic Sibley life cycle.

1) Does well one game. 

2) A little off it the next.

3) Out of position the game after.

4) Dropped.

It's good to see it stretched to three games because normally steps 2 and 3 are one and the same.

Not going to lie struggling to see how to fit those 11 players into something cohesive.

Best I think I can manage is

Smith Cashin Forsyth Roberts

           Bird Hourihane
NML       McGoldrick   Dobbin 
               Collins

Maybe Roberts and Forsyth the other way round.
Weirdly on paper this gets back close to what Rosenior's preferred line up was (outside of injuries at centre back). 
Doesn't send a great message to Stearman though if we are playing a back 4, he's not my favourite player but I'd thought he'd play if we play a back 4.

2 minutes ago, Jimbo Ram said:

ML at right back in a 4 according to the BBC ?

Maybe a narrow front three or some diamond shape ?

NML Cashin Forsyth Roberts
                 Bird
        Smith     Hourihane
             McGoldrick
        Collins     Dobbin

56 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

Surely Stearman has played the RCB role in a back 3 before? I don't see why it would be any different today. Plus I would say Forsyth is more of a left back and Roberts more of a centre back, , so if we're going to a back 4 I'd consider swapping those 2 round.

Stearman is slow, iffy in possession and looks uncomfortable when dragged out wide. Not traits you want in one of the wider cbs of a three.

3 hours ago, GenBr said:

Nah - training has nothing to do with it.

Barhuizen is injury prone. He had a calf injury and a foot injury last year. It tends to happen as players get older. Just because he wasn't injured as often prior to this does not mean he isn't injury prone.

Same with Chester. He is injury prone - nothing to be ashamed of, but he is getting older and will pick up injuries more often. You could argue we should have waited before playing him, but Rosenior bought him into the starting 11 and I would assume that means the staff felt he was ready to start playing. 

And Davies has suffered multiple major injuries in recent years - again he is injury prone now. 

We've signed whichever players we can even though they are coming towards the end of their careers now and its starting to show. There is only so much we can do with the limited squad size, but even so if our trained medical professionals feel that the players are fit to play then their should be no reason why they don't.

To add @Ghost of Clough's comments. 

If they are injury prone, don't you think that maybe they should be handled a little more carefully? 

Not continously playing them past the point of being knackered. Not having centre backs run up the pitch for a long throw when you are in the lead. Not continuously getting the ball forwards at all cost and never trying to slow a game down or control it when in front.

7 hours ago, Carnero said:

Davies & Knight are out with contact injuries not strains, but of course that doesn't fit your argument does it.

Contact injuries are more likely to happen to a fatigued player....

14 minutes ago, Blondest Goat said:

How does Hourihanes handball fit into this theory? And didn't McGoldricks tackle follow on from a corner or free kick?

I'm not saying every penalty we've conceded is a direct result of how we play. I'm saying with  how we play and with the players we have, it's not hard to imagine we we are more susceptible to it.

But if you want a slightly different argument; a tired player is far more likely to make a mistake.

Personally I think the next 5 games are critical for Warne.

We've got 5 games in 14 days, which taking into account the last 4 will be a total 9 in 28 days. That's a tough spell for any team physically. And it's already taking its toll with 4 players out injured. 

If, like i suspect, a big part in the dip in performances and injuries is from fatigue caused by mismanagement. Then if it continues things will quite likely go wrong fast over this next 5 games with a possibility of being cut adrift from the top 6 and an injury list that will be preventative to mounting a challenge. In that scenario Warne's job will be under a lot of scrutiny.

On the flip side though if he finds a way to navigate through the next 5 ok then he will likely be fine. He will have a week gap before the next game and then it's the international break, so that should provide a bit of a rest and a chance to get players back fit. Then he won't be far from January and at a point he get the players he wants to make his style of play work.

At the current moment his comments about no one being able to predict when it's too much work for a player or around needing to work harder make me feel that he doesn't see his own hand in the situation. It doesn't give me confidence that he can knowingly correct it.

22 hours ago, YoxallRam said:

I got to playing 3-5-2 is causing penalties and gave up

My point isn't that it's a 352 leading to penalties, my point is we are playing in a way that leaves us exposed with a bunch of slow defenders at the back. It leads to a lot of last ditch defending which is often where you get penalties.

So 5 league games into Warne's tenure and I think a pattern is emerging. The short version of this Warne isn't managing the fitness levels of the squad very well which when combined with a very narrow tactical outlook is leading to some of the mediocre performances we've been seeing. And there is reason to be concerned that if this isn't adjusted things will go downhill. 

Tactics

As everyone knows we've been setting up under Warne with a 352 with an attempt at pressing aggressively and attacking directly. With the two wingbacks being actually wingers. It's not hard to see how setting up like this asks a lot physically of any given player. With the wingbacks so aggressive there is often a lot of space to cover out wide meaning the midfield and the wider centre backs are often having to cover large swaths of ground just to plug gaps. I think a big reason why we've conceded so many penalties is because of how easily we can get stretched.

Also the midfield are all encouraged to press meaning there is no one to cover so they all have to keep moving or else again gaps appear. Then added on top of all of this is a seeming reluctance to try to keep the ball for any amount of time, even when we are up and even when we are looking gassed. I can remember times even when we've won that we were in a position just to slow the game down and keep the ball to take the sting out of the game only for players to be encouraged to go recklessly forwards.

What this leads to is almost an exhaustive amount of work than isn't entirely necessary and it's no wonder that frequently gaps starting really appearing in games for us after half time. I think the best example for this is in Warne's first game in charge we were one up and yet we are taking a long throw into the box with all the centre backs up field which is followed by a counter which all of them have to sprint back.

Fitness

Its worth noting that we had a short pre season meaning that the players didn't necessarily have the time to do the same amount of fitness work. Combined into this is several players carrying knocks at different stages in pre-season and most of the squad is either on one side or the other of where you'd expect them to be at their fittest from an age perspective. In short our squad isn't the fittest but that's not something you can solve in the short term. It's also exercabated by lack of depth in places. It's something as a manager you should be carefully managing both from a team selection stand point and from a tactical stand point. And yet Warne has often kept players playing well past the point they've looked knackered and players playing physically overdemanding positions are often getting started multiple times in a week. And I think you are seeing the effect this is having. Its no surprise that we've had now 4 injuries in 3 games and it shouldn't be taken lightly.

Performance

A more tired player is more likely to get injured. But also a player who is fatigued is going to be worse, they'll suddenly look a yard off the pace or their touch will desert them or they'll seemingly drift by in a game. Being tired affects you mentally as well as physically and I think so-so isn't doing enough can often be because they are knackered out. These things tend to spiral as well because if X is tiring, Y has to work harder to cover which leads to them tiring and so on.

Our best performances under Warne have come after an international and after a full week off. Whilst all of our performances where we've played Tuesday-Saturday have been mediocre at best. This isn't a coincidence, fatigue is leading to a drop off in performance levels. It's concerning that Warne is saying that we just aren't working hard enough because it means he's likely missing the forest for the trees. 

Going Forwards

We are currently in a very congested run of fixtures with another 5 games in the next 14 days. Thats a tough run physically on any squad. If things go they way they've been so far I think we will so another couple players pick up injuries and performances steadily get worse. The tactics and the management of players are just causing to much fatigue to build in a squad ill-equipped for it. And it's increasingly looking like Warne with his tactical rigidity and his focus on not working hard enough in his recent interview either doesn't seem where the issues is stemming from or doesn't have a solution.

After all if your only tool is a hammer every problem is a nail.

14 minutes ago, DCFC1388 said:

I wonder if Smith can do a job at RWB too, until Jan at least alongside NML, Oduroh & Knight. I do think Roberts & Fozzy are capable of playing LWB

As emergency cover he probably could. But the thing is we are expecting the wing backs to do a lot from an attacking sense. The plan is essentially to try to get them 1v1, trust they can beat their man and then everyone else gets in the box pretty much.

It'd be asking probably too much of Smith from an attacking sense.

Wildsmith 7.5 - Really solid performance with some excellent handling.

Cashin 8 - Excellent really. Bailed out Davies a couple times and was distribution was really strong.

Davies 6 - Shaky performance first half. Grew into the game second half.

Chester 6.5 - Bits of really loose passing at times and prone to an aimless punt or two. Didn't do a deal wrong defensively but didn't stand out particularly.

Hourihane 6.5 - Solid if a bit unspectacular. Prone to forcing things a bit too much. Should have passed to Collins to get the 2nd earlier. Started to really fade an hour in. 

Knight 6 - A bit of a quiet game for Knight. Few moments of being loose on the ball and a few rare moments of him not particularly protecting the ball well. Looked off his usual pace especially after 50 minutes or so.

Mendez-Laing 6.5 - Did most of everything asked of him. Few dangerous runs and times his final ball could have been better. Faded badly 2nd half and started to play a lot looser both on and off the ball.

Bird ? - 8.5 Ran the midfield. Looks to be enjoying the amount of freedom he's getting. Almost opened them a few times before finally doing so for Collins goal.

Dobbin 7 - Solid job all round. Was a nuisance and full of running to stretch them

Collins 9 (MOM) - Two well taken goals, good link up play and never stopped pressing and harrying. Can't ask for more really.

Barkhuizen 6.5 - Similar to NML. Stuck to his role. Kept running at them but final ball could have better and faded after an hour.

Sibley 6.5 - Not a whole lot of time to make an impact. But pressed and harried and got into good positions.

Osula 6.5 - Looks a handful. Can argue that he would very good bit of play but oersonally I thought he got greedy after initially good play

Forsyth 6.5 - Ran up and down the line and added needed energy without doing a whole lot of note.

6 hours ago, duncanjwitham said:

I’d expect Roberts and Forsyth to be the other way around tbh.  Forsyth is very much a winger who dropped back to fullback, whereas Roberts looks much more like a centre half moved over to me. Obviously they can both do both roles, but Forsyth is much better going forward, which matters more in this system.

Thing is I don't really think we've got anyone at the club who is perfect for either wing back slot really. The demands on the wing back with the way are setting up are enormous. They are expected to be the plan A of attack without really any wide support and also expected to get back to cover defensively if need be. It needs someone very good in 1v1s, has a good cross and a massive engine.

Forsyth - Is a bit too old and his legs aren't quite what they were. Would have been perfect 5+ years ago. His crossing can be inconsistent but its probably the best we have and he does have the ability to put some very dangerous crossing in. He's also not the most likely to beat his man 1v1.

Roberts - Nominally more a defensive left back/left centre back. Has got pace, stamina and is comfortable in midfield areas though.

NML - He's really a winger and isn't the best crosser (especially from deep). Excellent ball carrier though and can cause havoc. Probably ok if we can compensate for him defensiveley a bit and allow him license to run infield.

Barkhuizen- Similar really to NML. Also add that with both of them they got disheartened playing wing back at other clubs. Question marks over his stamina.

Odurah - Probably the most suited to RWB in the squad in the long run. Quite possibly not ready for first team football just just yet.

Knight - Would probably play the role well but is clearly earmarked for midfield.

For now NML or Barkhuizen are likely the best options for RWB. LWB is tricky though especially as just inside is likely Hourihane who doesn't have the engine he once did. Fozzy might leave you lethargic on one side. Roberts might leave you a bit too blunt. Barkhuizen might leave you too open and too little options to change things on the right.

56 minutes ago, YouRams said:

Cashin is like having a CB & fullback he's everywhere! If we didn't have him it wouldn't work, we're going to come under threat on the counter but i think we have enough at the back to be confident, Chester had a great game too.

Ehhh Cashin was excellent but it was noticeable the more the wing backs knackered out the harder it became.

I will say I don't remain wholly convinced by Chester. He was fine, just think we might need someone better on the ball and a bit quicker.

As a minor aside I think it might be smart to only start one of NML and Barks. Because otherwise we don't really have a deal of cover.

Just now, Unlucky Alf said:

I didn't listen only kept up a little on here, How did Davis play, On here 1st half 1 or 2 said he was leggy/blowing a little, Looks to have completed the full 90 mins

Mostly OK. Took a knock in the first half that took him off stride for a while but seemed to run it off.

Good win overall. 

A lot of promising signs especially first half. Really good pressing and energy, really positive approach with the ball on the deck and looking to attack. Wildsmith, Cashin, Bird and Collins particular standouts.

Couple concerns of varying degrees though. We didn't manage the energy levels of players that well there was a fair few players who were knackered by the hour but we were too conservative making changes. This lead to gaps opening up, tired decisons/passes and the pressing dying off a fair bit. And when that happened we probably should have tried to take control of the game more. I think a better team may have punished us there. But we defended it mostly well and deserved the win.

Clever clever play from Bird there into a good finish from Collins.

6 minutes ago, Big Trav said:

I'd be bringling on Fozzy, Sibley and Thommo here. Starting to look tired

I think I've been doing close to all 3 around 60-65 mins.

Knight, Hourihane, Barkhuizen and NML all looked knackered.

Feel like we are falling into a trap of not freshening things sooner.