Transfer rumours

[Topram]

21 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

I’m really disappointed that we are down to only looking at loans already, even if they are all successful, it doesn’t change the fact we are looking at another rebuild in 10 months time.

We have six players contracted beyond the next two years. Built on sand. 

Yeah for having a good championship budget we’ve only spent what we’ve received in payments from other sales, in the long run it’s not great look

[Ghost of Clough]

12 minutes ago, IlsonDerby said:

Kenzo, JWZ, Nyambe, Ebou, CBT, Osborn, Vickers, Jackson, Brown, Elder, NML, Ward, Rooney, Robinson, Cashin 

are all players contracted to start the 25/26 season with us. 
 

I share your concern about not building long term for the future but - maybe in 12 months we have 1/2 more academy products stepping up to first team training, you assume Wilson, Thommo and Nelson might be offered extensions. 
 

That to me sees a slightly smaller rebuild needed next summer. And then if the summer after requires a smaller rebuild we eventually end up at a point where we are freshening up a core squad each transfer window rather than making wholesale changes. 

So next season we need another 7 starters and 5 squad players. We might extend some (such as Wilson and Nelson), but we would also be looking to move a couple on so no net difference.

There's no reason not to go in for a young CB (such as Wiredu) who will compete with our other options this season with the view to being an established starter next season. We could also gamble on a young and cheap CF from abroad, who will then be one of 4 CFs next season. It's poor long term planning IMO.

GK: Zetterstrom, Vickers

RCB: ???, Nyambe, Rooney

CB: ???, ???

LCB: Cashin, ???

RWB: ???, Ward

LWB: ???, Elder

RCM: Goudmijn, Adams, DRobinson

LCM: ???, Osborn, ???

RW: ???, Jackson

LW: Mendez-Laing, Blackett-Taylor

CF: ???  DBrown, ???, ???

[FlyBritishMidland]

34 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

I’m really disappointed that we are down to only looking at loans already, even if they are all successful, it doesn’t change the fact we are looking at another rebuild in 10 months time.

We have six players contracted beyond the next two years. Built on sand. 

As we stand today.  You’re assuming that we won’t sign anyone permanently in January.  And that we won’t extend the contracts of players like Wilson or Nyambe.  I posted last week that it’s about getting the best out of the budget and focusing on specific areas of the team, where we may be light in numbers.  Loans also keep the path open for our own prospects to develop and come through, rather blocking it with a permanent signing.

Squads continually change and evolve and we’re still in the recovery phase from admin and, effectively, building our 3rd squad in 3 years due to promotion.  It’s having lots of players on longer term contracts that got us in the mess.

[TomTom92]

24 minutes ago, maxjam said:

PW said he wanted 12 players at the start of the summer, not sure what people were really expecting?  £1m-£2m per player?  A £12m-£24m spend?  We've got some freebies, some loans (hopefully more) and spent a few quid on some players.  Do that over the course of a few seasons and we'll have a fully contracted Championship level squad.

All eyes on whether we can get 3/4 through the door and what type of deal they are.

[Tyler Durden]

48 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

I’m really disappointed that we are down to only looking at loans already, even if they are all successful, it doesn’t change the fact we are looking at another rebuild in 10 months time.

We have six players contracted beyond the next two years. Built on sand. 

Two points:-

Did we know that we would be getting money incoming for sell on clauses being activated in the summer when Clowes set his transfer budget and these were factored in or not?

I use the loose analogy of getting players in on loan as renting a house, it's dead money year on year and you're never any closer to buying a house as you're never able to save the deposit as it's going to the landlord. 

To be able to generate wealth you need to speculate using capital outlays so that in the future your investments might return a greater value which you can then reinvest and so on.

Simple economics which DC seems to have forgotten about, which for a successful businessman does seems strange.

[Millenniumram]

Not seen the point mentioned here that there’s a limit on the amount of loans you have? It’s 5 in a match day squad. If we’re now “only looking at loans” that means a maximum of another 3 players in. That’s a bit concerning to me, and means we’re not going to meet Warne’s minimum of 12 players in.

[Crewton]

4 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

Two points:-

Did we know that we would be getting money incoming for sell on clauses being activated in the summer when Clowes set his transfer budget and these were factored in or not?

I use the loose analogy of getting players in on loan as renting a house, it's dead money year on year and you're never any closer to buying a house as you're never able to save the deposit as it's going to the landlord. 

To be able to generate wealth you need to speculate using capital outlays so that in the future your investments might return a greater value which you can then reinvest and so on.

Simple economics which DC seems to have forgotten about, which for a successful businessman does seems strange.

It's not "simple economics" though in football. "Speculate to accumulate " is what got us to the position of avoiding liquidation by our finger-nails, and is the reason we have to build a new squad every season, for a few years at least. 

I suspect that Clowes is fully aware of the pitfalls of football investment and is unlikely to go down that route just yet, no matter how many entreaties from the fans he gets. It's great if you can do it with the certainty of a Brentford or a Brighton - perhaps that's why Clowes is investing in bringing expertise into the club to help the club make better transfer decisions in the future?

[Comrade 86]

51 minutes ago, angieram said:

I suspect it will be another two in January, and similar next season if we stay up. 

Mix in emerging academy players and it will be a gradual build up of the squad.

We just haven't got the money to splash the cash all at once.

By comparison, Middlesbrough owed Gibson £150million before he recently wrote off over £100 million of that debt. The sums are mind-boggling, they still haven't been promoted! 

Staggering that some seem to have expected us to transition to their idea of a Championship side in a single window. Clowes is a great chairman, but he's not a billionaire and we simply can't compete with clubs whose owners are. This season will be about consolidation and building a platform, yet some seem to think we should already be playing like teams who cost 5 times as much as ours. I'd have thought yesterday might have illustrated the class gap, if nothing else, but clearly not.

[nottingram]

1 minute ago, Crewton said:

It's not "simple economics" though in football. "Speculate to accumulate " is what got us to the position of avoiding liquidation by our finger-nails, and is the reason we have to build a new squad every season, for a few years at least. 

I suspect that Clowes is fully aware of the pitfalls of football investment and is unlikely to go down that route just yet, no matter how many entreaties from the fans he gets. It's great if you can do it with the certainty of a Brentford or a Brighton - perhaps that's why Clowes is investing in bringing expertise into the club to help the club make better transfer decisions in the future?

Depends.

Speculate to accumulate by buying loads of 28 year olds that you think are the final piece of the jigsaw will lead you into a mess, as we’ve seen.

Speculate to accumulate by buying good young players for moderate fees (whatever they are now - I’ve genuinely no idea!) and developing them is probably a sound strategy.

The difficulty is a) having the availability of cash in the first place and b) trusting the process of both buying them and then developing them. It’s easier said than done but would only lead to difficulty if it’s done badly (or you get very unlucky with a talented Polish midfielder who has breadstick knees when you finally cotton on to it).

If you have, say, £4m (plucked from thin air) and buy a sub-23 striker with it on a 4 year contract, it’s not like you’ll never see that money again. You’ll in theory get a return on the pitch and hopefully off it too. That transfer fee would effectively cost you £16,000 per week in amortisation. I wonder how much in wages is currently being spent on players we actively won’t use or would rather not have. 

[TomTom92]

19 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

Two points:-

Did we know that we would be getting money incoming for sell on clauses being activated in the summer when Clowes set his transfer budget and these were factored in or not?

I use the loose analogy of getting players in on loan as renting a house, it's dead money year on year and you're never any closer to buying a house as you're never able to save the deposit as it's going to the landlord. 

To be able to generate wealth you need to speculate using capital outlays so that in the future your investments might return a greater value which you can then reinvest and so on.

Simple economics which DC seems to have forgotten about, which for a successful businessman does seems strange.

Depends if we can get the same quality of player on a permanent for the same money? 
 
If not then it’s needs must. Plus you could argue loan keeping us up is better financially than permanents taking us down.

[PHDCFC07]

I don’t get some of the hate for our window, Warne said that he’s looking at loans but he never wrote off another permanent signing, he could be offered something perfect and we end up with another signing like Osborn, Kenzo is miles ahead of what we paid for him and he’s barely settled in, we haven’t seen Yates play a competitive game for us and there’s JWZ who might not even get in the team due to Vickers’ recent form. We don’t really need another 3 starting players so the loans will fill that gap until we can spend to get a permanent option, with what we have we’ve had a stellar window and we still have longer to get more in aswell as January 

[Comrade 86]

16 minutes ago, Crewton said:

It's not "simple economics" though in football. "Speculate to accumulate " is what got us to the position of avoiding liquidation by our finger-nails, and is the reason we have to build a new squad every season, for a few years at least. 

I suspect that Clowes is fully aware of the pitfalls of football investment and is unlikely to go down that route just yet, no matter how many entreaties from the fans he gets. It's great if you can do it with the certainty of a Brentford or a Brighton - perhaps that's why Clowes is investing in bringing expertise into the club to help the club make better transfer decisions in the future?

Folk spend years bemoaning the fact that we don't and won't adopt strategies akin to the clubs you mention, then moan when we do. When did we become so impatient? I doubt Clowes will pay it much heed, but he could easily be forgiven for wishing he'd never bothered.

[Tyler Durden]

22 minutes ago, Crewton said:

It's not "simple economics" though in football. "Speculate to accumulate " is what got us to the position of avoiding liquidation by our finger-nails, and is the reason we have to build a new squad every season, for a few years at least. 

I suspect that Clowes is fully aware of the pitfalls of football investment and is unlikely to go down that route just yet, no matter how many entreaties from the fans he gets. It's great if you can do it with the certainty of a Brentford or a Brighton - perhaps that's why Clowes is investing in bringing expertise into the club to help the club make better transfer decisions in the future?

It is simple economics though, you can't create wealth out of thin air unless you rob a bank.

I've not even mentioned the fees involved yet you seen to have slammed shut this avenue without any consideration as if I'm advocating shelling out millions on one player. 

[Marriot Ram99]

52 minutes ago, FlyBritishMidland said:

As we stand today.  You’re assuming that we won’t sign anyone permanently in January.  And that we won’t extend the contracts of players like Wilson or Nyambe.  I posted last week that it’s about getting the best out of the budget and focusing on specific areas of the team, where we may be light in numbers.  Loans also keep the path open for our own prospects to develop and come through, rather blocking it with a permanent signing.

Squads continually change and evolve and we’re still in the recovery phase from admin and, effectively, building our 3rd squad in 3 years due to promotion.  It’s having lots of players on longer term contracts that got us in the mess.

Warne has openly stated that he hates signing players in January and we always sign dross in that month best to assume we would only look at loans to fill in gaps not key signings.

[Tyler Durden]

18 minutes ago, TomTom92 said:

Depends if we can get the same quality of player on a permanent for the same money? 
 
If not then it’s needs must. Plus you could argue loan keeping us up is better financially than permanents taking us down.

They're never yours though which is the point the OP made. 

[Crewton]

19 minutes ago, nottingram said:

Depends.

Speculate to accumulate by buying loads of 28 year olds that you think are the final piece of the jigsaw will lead you into a mess, as we’ve seen.

Speculate to accumulate by buying good young players for moderate fees (whatever they are now - I’ve genuinely no idea!) and developing them is probably a sound strategy.

The difficulty is a) having the availability of cash in the first place and b) trusting the process of both buying them and then developing them. It’s easier said than done but would only lead to difficulty if it’s done badly (or you get very unlucky with a talented Polish midfielder who has breadstick knees when you finally cotton on to it).

If you have, say, £4m (plucked from thin air) and buy a sub-23 striker with it on a 4 year contract, it’s not like you’ll never see that money again. You’ll in theory get a return on the pitch and hopefully off it too. That transfer fee would effectively cost you £16,000 per week in amortisation. I wonder how much in wages is currently being spent on players we actively won’t use or would rather not have. 

You've highlighted the pitfalls of signing even young players for substantial fees : something like £17m was spent on Thorne, Bielek and Joswiak alone for relatively little return on the pitch and perhaps as little as £2m return in transfer fees.

Speculation is only tenable if (a) it pays off by giving excellent returns on the pitch and/or in the transfer market or (b) you can afford to lose what you're speculating with.

I don't think Clowes is in that position.

[Crewton]

10 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

It is simple economics though, you can't create wealth out of thin air unless you rob a bank.

I've not even mentioned the fees involved yet you seen to have slammed shut this avenue without any consideration as if I'm advocating shelling out millions on one player. 

I'm not in a position to slam any avenues shut, I'm just pointing out the pitfalls and speculating what Clowes position might be.

[Tyler Durden]

Just now, Crewton said:

I'm not in a position to slam any avenues shut, I'm just pointing out the pitfalls and speculating what Clowes position might be.

You've skipped over my first point so am guessing you do agree then that you can't create wealth out of nothing which is basic economics.

[Eoghan1884]

15 minutes ago, Marriot Ram99 said:

Warne has openly stated that he hates signing players in January and we always sign dross in that month best to assume we would only look at loans to fill in gaps not key signings.

Yh true Ebou Adams was absolutely useless after coming in last January. CBT also was essentially a permanent we signed last January was a loan that had to turn permanent. 

[maxjam]

2 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

You've skipped over my first point so am guessing you do agree then that you can't create wealth out of nothing which is basic economics.

You can hopefully generate more money from money though if you either invest in your academy or invest in your scouting dept. 

The recent interview with Stephen Pearce and Mo Bobat was very interesting, re. using data to find untapped value in the transfer market.  IIRC Bobat did however say that we wouldn't see the benefits of this new approach in either the current or January transfer windows, so as with the academy and our approach to the Championship we seem to be taking a more considered longer term approach.