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Match Thread: vs Bolton Wanderers (H)


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3 hours ago, Rammy03 said:

Let old Moodhoover try to lighten the squabbling mood by opening up a different pointless argument.....

That article said it was our largest crowd since December 2016.

Really? What about the home game v brum after the march.... wasn't that a sell out?

Or one of the f****t games that have been held since then?

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16 minutes ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

Let old Moodhoover try to lighten the squabbling mood by opening up a different pointless argument.....

That article said it was our largest crowd since December 2016.

Really? What about the home game v brum after the march.... wasn't that a sell out?

Or one of the f****t games that have been held since then?

Birmingham was 32,211.

Dec 2016 was 3 nil victory over the red dogs 32,600.

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5 hours ago, Rampant said:

Any chance we can just ban this tedious p****? ^^^

Bad timing @FlyBritishMidland! The one above you obviously.

Yes, every chance. There's still 3 or 4 members he hasn't annoyed yet but we may have to take the majority view.

A fist fight broke out in the mod room earlier over who gets to do it.

Obviously I won so unless he tells me if he was at the match and describes his goal celebration he'll be gone before brunch time Tuesday.

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6 hours ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

Let old Moodhoover try to lighten the squabbling mood by opening up a different pointless argument.....

That article said it was our largest crowd since December 2016.

Really? What about the home game v brum after the march.... wasn't that a sell out?

Or one of the f****t games that have been held since then?

Owen Bradley said the same thing on match commo…

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I thought Wilson’s actions after he had scored were interesting … why did he sorta half stop when running away to the crowd and look behind him as if to check something?? Was he checking to see if Waggy was claiming it ????

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18 hours ago, uttoxram75 said:

Describe your celebration to us when Wilson scored.

I imagine it was like one of them goals where the fans are waiting for a VAR decision. 

He punched all of the data into his luck spreadsheet and then had to wait for the results. 

Imagine there were absolute scenes when the computer advised that the xG was less than 1 and if the header had taken place against an average opponent on a neutral ground on a windy day it would not have gone in.

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16 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

Sorry, perhaps I didn’t explain my interpretation of the law very well. I think your second paragraph is the key one. If the ball brushes past the arm of a player on its way into the goal, with the slightest of touches, is it deemed that that player “scored” the goal? I would say not but what do I know. If it had happened in our goal mouth, and the goal ruled out, I would have thought it harsh on Bolton but relieved that we had been saved by a technicality.

As you say, the important thing is it doesn’t matter as the goal was given. I feel comfortable that it was the right decision but if it wasn’t, it kind of makes up for some of the wrong decisions that have gone against us including the two big ones at Bolton.

Ah I totally see where you're coming from - the answer to your question is this: if it brushes the arm of a player on its way into goal, then Waghorn will be ruled the scorer as it touched him last, same as if it brushed off his head or foot. I guess "brush" is subjective as it depends on the deviation of the ball, but that's another point!

In that situation it will be deemed handball if the referee sees it (or particularly VAR picks it up) and deems it to have been contact, under Law 12 of it being an offence to score directly from a hand or arm.

I think the grey area sits that technically the ball might brush the arm but its so slight that the on field officials miss it (my first reaction to my lad was that Waggy did well to get out of the way of it). I think it's one of those that the on field gives but when VAR looks at the stills they might rule out, similar to lots of VAR decisions we've seen.

Hope that helps mate, tbh we've spent far too much time thinking about it but as a ref I love the intricacies of the laws. 

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On 17/03/2024 at 13:52, ap04 said:

xG, demonstrably the best metric to evaluate past performance in the public domain once you haven't followed a team's games.

If I understand it, xg ignores the situation where

- a precision through ball that will probably lead to a goal is marginally misplaced 

- a player in a scoring position receives the ball but is needlessly offside by a whisker

- a player receiving the ball in a scoring position is wrongly adjudged offside,

- the ref doesn’t play an advantage which would lead to a goal scoring situation

- Collo shoots into a defender instead of putting a teammate clear on goal 

- the ref wrongly penalises an attacker as he passes a defender towards an open goal

etc etc. It seems a really crude measure.
 

Presumably AI could already build a system designed to eradicate ‘happenstance’ altogether and which tells you at the end of the game which team most deserved to win. When it does, is that how we should evaluate managers, build the league table…? 

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On 18/03/2024 at 17:56, FlyBritishMidland said:

and instead focus on a hypothetical scenario

"Hypothetical" is not exactly right, all these are tallies of actual situations observed in previous games (only everything not just the goals)

 

On 18/03/2024 at 17:59, FlyBritishMidland said:

So we should ignore that the keeper did the job that he’s paid to do very well.

No but you might be ignoring that the keeper is just one player out of a few who did a good or bad job in this play and weren't duly punished or rewarded.

But we are never going to convince each other so we can leave it at that 👍

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On 19/03/2024 at 15:50, kevinhectoring said:

If I understand it, xg ignores the situation where

- a precision through ball that will probably lead to a goal is marginally misplaced 

- a player in a scoring position receives the ball but is needlessly offside by a whisker

- a player receiving the ball in a scoring position is wrongly adjudged offside,

- the ref doesn’t play an advantage which would lead to a goal scoring situation

- Collo shoots into a defender instead of putting a teammate clear on goal 

- the ref wrongly penalises an attacker as he passes a defender towards an open goal

etc etc. It seems a really crude measure.
 

Presumably AI could already build a system designed to eradicate ‘happenstance’ altogether and which tells you at the end of the game which team most deserved to win. When it does, is that how we should evaluate managers, build the league table…? 

Spot on, and just as important the standard ones we look at are not post-shot models so ignore a good part of the performance.

The thing to remember though is that even a flawed xG will always outperform goals, these are quite interesting reads [1] [2] [3]

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25 minutes ago, ap04 said:

Spot on, and just as important the standard ones we look at are not post-shot models so ignore a good part of the performance.

The thing to remember though is that even a flawed xG will always outperform goals, these are quite interesting reads [1] [2] [3]

Really looking forward to the match tomorrow, hope we have a positive XG…….. said no one.

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4 hours ago, ap04 said:

Spot on, and just as important the standard ones we look at are not post-shot models so ignore a good part of the performance.

The thing to remember though is that even a flawed xG will always outperform goals, these are quite interesting reads [1] [2] [3]

“even a flawed xG will always outperform goals”

What does that mean?! No match has ever been decided or points awarded on the xG as far as I know, and if they have they are very much the minority example.
The millions and millions of normal football fans the world over look forward to their team scoring goals to win games, they may well even expect them to score goals, but let’s not pretend it’s the expectation that matters more than the execution of ACTUALLY scoring the goals.

Edited by Caerphilly Ram
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40 minutes ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

“even a flawed xG will always outperform goals”

What does that mean?! No match has ever been decided or points awarded on the xG as far as I know, and if they have they are very much the minority example.
The millions and millions of normal football fans the world over look forward to their team scoring goals to win games, they may well even expect them to score goals, but let’s not pretend it’s the expectation that matters more than the execution of ACTUALLY scoring the goals.

I blame sky tv , it’s little wonder so many fans have lost the passion , joy and heartbreak of actually winning and losing games🤷‍♂️

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3 minutes ago, Archied said:

I blame sky tv , it’s little wonder so many fans have lost the passion , joy and heartbreak of actually winning and losing games🤷‍♂️

Completely driven by the betting industry. Who used to give a 💩 about how many corners there’d been by the 16th minute? 😴

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