Tom Lawrence - Joined Rangers

[San Fran Van Rams]

Lawrence has seemingly matured as a player this year, probably because of the Captain responsibility and because he is now the main creative & attacking outlet. He's a frustrating player no doubt, but I'd also argue that without him this season we'd still be on negative points. I rate him around the box and he's one of a few who can play quick 1-2s, make a decisive flick, and retain the ball in a crowd of players.

Its worth remembering that he's had his off the field issues too and this seems like the first season where he hasn't had personal problems to content with.

If he leaves I'm fairly certain our performances will deteriorate as a result. I guess the question is whether we're better trying to save his wages and recoup a fee to survive or have a better chance of winning games in the second half of the season. I'd warrant a guess that the former is likely to happen if we don't hear back from the administrators on the preferred bidder by end of the week.

[BatRam]

Unfortunately he’s on a daft wage and worth more than most of our squad. Think it might be worth selling him. We’re going down so you want him off the books . Unless we can get a takeover sorted and sort players contracts out 

[Ghost of Clough]

He earns about 10% of the club's overall wage bill. Based on contribution to the team on the pitch so far this season, I'd say he's putting in his fair share

[Simmo’s left foot]

He will be gone in January, we cannot afford his wages, and we will take a nominal fee, all of which helps cash flow projections. The admins will have no choice. 

Our total turnover will be something like £15 million in league 1, gone are the days of any £1 million plus player salaries, we may not even see Barker type transfer fees for a long time either. If we do it will be for outgoing players!

[Shuff264]

He's a match winner and we will miss him if/when he leaves.

He's scored or assisted 8 of our 18 league goals this season, thats not including goals like Plange v Blackpool that was made by him.

[Ghost of Clough]

11 minutes ago, Simmo’s left foot said:

He will be gone in January, we cannot afford his wages, and we will take a nominal fee, all of which helps cash flow projections. The admins will have no choice. 

Our total turnover will be something like £15 million in league 1, gone are the days of any £1 million plus player salaries, we may not even see Barker type transfer fees for a long time either. If we do it will be for outgoing players!

17/18 club revenue was just shy of £30m (and still rising prior to Covid)

There's an approximate £6m hit to TV revenue upon relegation (£24m)
Let's say attendances next season will be at 20k, that's another £2.3m (£21.7m). [A drop to 16k is another £1m or so]
Then a bit of a drop-off in sponsorship due to less exposure in that league.

Probably looking at closer to £20m assuming we aren't still impacted by Covid. All club costs for the current season are around that figure.

[Chellaston Ram]

He’s never reached his full potential on a regular basis , it’s funny how is form has picked up now his contract is due for renewal. I will say get rid in January

[JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta]

1 hour ago, Chellaston Ram said:

He’s never reached his full potential on a regular basis , it’s funny how is form has picked up now his contract is due for renewal. I will say get rid in January

If Lawrence consistently played to his full ability he wouldn't be playing for Derby, or any team in the Championship for that matter.

[Tyler Durden]

4 hours ago, Chellaston Ram said:

He’s never reached his full potential on a regular basis , it’s funny how is form has picked up now his contract is due for renewal. I will say get rid in January

How does anyone truly know what his full potential is? Perhaps the fact that he has been playing at a certain level for so long indicate that that IS his real level and the flashes of brilliance or the purple patch he was on when playing for Ipswich when we signed him were just exceptions to this. 

Lawrence has been through enough managers at Derby, none of whom have been able to remarkably raise his performance levels, which does lend to the thinking that indeed he has been playing at his natural level. 

 

[Chellaston Ram]

I expected more from a player that cost £5 million 

[Wolfie20]

40 minutes ago, Chellaston Ram said:

I expected more from a player that cost £5 million 

Blame whoever was responsible for paying the fee - nothing to do with the player.

[Dimmu]

There's so much Lawrence love here so let's balance it out with some nasty facts.

Firstly, he is among the most wasteful forwards in this league. That shouldn't be suprise to anyone.

Secondly, those that think we would be doing worse without him, I bring you this season's stats:

Games with Lawrence, at least 60 minutes per game: 4W 8D 7L  = 1,05 points per game
Games without or under 30 mins: 1W 2D 0L = 1,67 points per game and unbeaten

Obviously three games is not enough to make a good comparison, but it's visible how much more compact we are without him.
Let's hypothesize for a second. If Lawrence would've been dropped at the start of the season and that formula would've been true, we would now be 5 points from safety with 16 points instead of the current 4.

I know, there's a lot of statistical loopholes in this, but I just wanted to beat him with the stats this time. ? 

Edited December 17, 2021 by Dimmu

[Tyler Durden]

18 hours ago, Chellaston Ram said:

I expected more from a player that cost £5 million 

That's the issue though isn't it. Another example in a long list of the club signing a player on the back of a purple patch and getting done over on the transfer fee accordingly.

[Ghost of Clough]

On 17/12/2021 at 23:23, Dimmu said:

There's so much Lawrence love here so let's balance it out with some nasty facts.

Firstly, he is among the most wasteful forwards in this league. That shouldn't be suprise to anyone.

Secondly, those that think we would be doing worse without him, I bring you this season's stats:

Games with Lawrence, at least 60 minutes per game: 4W 8D 7L  = 1,05 points per game
Games without or under 30 mins: 1W 2D 0L = 1,67 points per game and unbeaten

Obviously three games is not enough to make a good comparison, but it's visible how much more compact we are without him.
Let's hypothesize for a second. If Lawrence would've been dropped at the start of the season and that formula would've been true, we would now be 5 points from safety with 16 points instead of the current 4.

I know, there's a lot of statistical loopholes in this, but I just wanted to beat him with the stats this time. ? 

Somewhat misleading. Where were the shots taken from for example?
It'll probably come as no surprise that the 3 players in the top right of that chart have also had considerably more shots within 6 yards of goal than anyone else and therefore are a lot more 'clinical' than most as a result.

Within the penalty area (excluding 6 yards), Lawrence's conversion is roughly 20%, compared with Mitrovic's 26%.

[Dimmu]

7 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Somewhat misleading. Where were the shots taken from for example?
It'll probably come as no surprise t3 players in the top right of that chart have also had considerably more shots within 6 yards of goal than anyone else and therefore are a lot more 'clinical' than most as a result.

Within the penalty area (excluding 6 yards), Lawrence's conversion is roughly 20%, compared with Mitrovic's 26%.

Goog question, but msleading? Definitely no. I don't have such stats, I don't reallly follow football that closely anymore.
Surely Mitrovic percentage is relatively small as the headers are counted as well. And he will go for headers against centrebacks who should be wrestlers.... Our Tom doesn't which obviously will skew the stats in his favour..

[Ghost of Clough]

3 hours ago, Dimmu said:

Goog question, but msleading? Definitely no. I don't have such stats, I don't reallly follow football that closely anymore.
Surely Mitrovic percentage is relatively small as the headers are counted as well. And he will go for headers against centrebacks who should be wrestlers.... Our Tom doesn't which obviously will skew the stats in his favour..

1-in-3 of Mitrovic's shots is with his head, 20% of which hit the net. That would give him an overall % of roughly 28.5% for shots with the foot inside the area (excluding 6 yards). 

So how about other's to have scored 10 or more so far this season?
Brereton, the league's 2nd top scorer, has a conversion rate of 23% inside the penalty area (excluding 6 yards).
Solanke - 20%
Piroe - 23%
Adebayo - 18%
Grabban - 32%

[Dimmu]

21 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

1-in-3 of Mitrovic's shots is with his head, 20% of which hit the net. That would give him an overall % of roughly 28.5% for shots with the foot inside the area (excluding 6 yards). 

So how about other's to have scored 10 or more so far this season?
Brereton, the league's 2nd top scorer, has a conversion rate of 23% inside the penalty area (excluding 6 yards).
Solanke - 20%
Piroe - 23%
Adebayo - 18%
Grabban - 32%

Yeah, let's sign Mitrovic. He'll destroy the League One.

[strawhillram]

On 07/12/2021 at 10:38, Taribo said:

A half-bothered Lawrence in the hand is better than two Joz's in the bush

oooo matron

[dcfc4ever]

On 17/12/2021 at 23:23, Dimmu said:

There's so much Lawrence love here so let's balance it out with some nasty facts.

Firstly, he is among the most wasteful forwards in this league. That shouldn't be suprise to anyone.

Secondly, those that think we would be doing worse without him, I bring you this season's stats:

Games with Lawrence, at least 60 minutes per game: 4W 8D 7L  = 1,05 points per game
Games without or under 30 mins: 1W 2D 0L = 1,67 points per game and unbeaten

Obviously three games is not enough to make a good comparison, but it's visible how much more compact we are without him.
Let's hypothesize for a second. If Lawrence would've been dropped at the start of the season and that formula would've been true, we would now be 5 points from safety with 16 points instead of the current 4.

I know, there's a lot of statistical loopholes in this, but I just wanted to beat him with the stats this time. ? 

Why can’t you just get behind Tom Lawrence when we as a club have our backs against the wall….some strange folk around that like to see the negative in everything and stir the pot 

[Dimmu]

13 minutes ago, dcfc4ever said:

Why can’t you just get behind Tom Lawrence when we as a club have our backs against the wall….some strange folk around that like to see the negative in everything and stir the pot 

What a strange comment.... The answer for you question is simple: Because I'm rather behind the club than one spesific player who, when playing, makes us worse. The better question is, why would you rather see us getting less points? For me, that's strange and extremely negative approach.