The Administration Thread

[Stive Pesley]

21 minutes ago, Curtains said:

It’s a whole different scenario if the Council owned the ground as opposed to a private company.

The Council have the best interests of the City at heart .

Surely you can see that 

Yeah of course I see that as better for us, the fans

I'm asking why it makes any difference to our mega-rich suitors who want to own the ground as part of the deal and not have a third party own it..

[Curtains]

11 minutes ago, DavesaRam said:

"The Council SHOULD have the best interests of the City at heart" would be a better way to express it, but history shows that it doesn't pan out like that - Assembly Rooms, A52 bridge anybody?

Well the Assembly rooms is an unfortunately difficult situation as allegedly it wasn’t covered fully by insurance.

Only ever went once in its entire existence as found it a boring place with boring shows and couldn’t care less about it.

A52 Bridge is an asset for sure  but the A52 project costs increased but that can happen as we all know due to spiraling labour and design costs .

The Whole area has been enhanced.

PP would be a one off payment 

 

[Curtains]

5 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

Yeah of course I see that as better for us, the fans

I'm asking why it makes any difference to our mega-rich suitors who want to own the ground as part of the deal and not have a third party own it..

Mega  rich well that’s ironic as they ain’t  showing it up to this point .

They bidders come across as miserable miserly people to me. 

Edited April 4, 2022 by Curtains
Altered

[Beetle]

That's what I don't get. What's the difference between paying rent to the current owners and paying rent to the council?

And for crying out load why wasn't this discussed months ago with the bidders

[Chester40]

Just now, Stive Pesley said:

Yeah of course I see that as better for us, the fans

I'm asking why it makes any difference to our mega-rich suitors who want to own the ground as part of the deal and not have a third party own it..

It's the question that keeps getting asked...but no one seems to answer?

Unless it's the case that these businessmen resent giving Mel money for what is a distressed asset. They hope to sit and wait and force his hand to get it free/ cheaper.

If the council own it,  the situation is different? The suitors know there is no gain in waiting and they will have to rent it....or they are forced to make a better offer to Mel quickly before it's too late?

[The Scarlet Pimpernel]

If the council buy the stadium and gain an asset how much is the club worth to an investor? Only minimal assets, goodwill, heritage & potential. Against that huge debts to settle. In other words, without the stadium how much is the club worth?

Edited April 4, 2022 by The Scarlet Pimpernel

[strawhillram]

1 minute ago, Chester40 said:

It's the question that keeps getting asked...but no one seems to answer?

Unless it's the case that these businessmen resent giving Mel money for what is a distressed asset. They hope to sit and wait and force his hand to get it free/ cheaper.

If the council own it,  the situation is different? The suitors know there is no gain in waiting and they will have to rent it....or they are forced to make a better offer to Mel quickly before it's too late?

Perhaps the bidders want the stadium for a low value or as a gift

[Ram-Alf]

2 minutes ago, NottsRam77 said:

Theyre buying a fanbase, theyre buying a city effectively.

A fanbase can be a downfall depending where/when DCFC are bought, Are we going to get 25k if we're relegated and on -15 points in league 1?

Are we going to get the above if liquidation is the only option?

I'm sure there is a die hard support and there's a set of supporters who will go whatever the situation, But, New owners will have a budget on what they hope and think support will be on projected ST sales and tickets sold for single games.

[Curtains]

3 minutes ago, Beetle said:

That's what I don't get. What's the difference between paying rent to the current owners and paying rent to the council?

And for crying out load why wasn't this discussed months ago with the bidders

This is as a  last resort saloon 

[Chester40]

4 minutes ago, StrawHillRam said:

Perhaps the bidders want the stadium for a low value or as a gift

I'm sure they do.

If I were Mel, no way would I want to be leveraged by Ashley to give him the stadium and save him £20mill when he has billions in the bank and has a reputation of further asset stripping rather then investment.

Maybe cutting a deal with the council feels much more palatable for Mel.

[Stive Pesley]

20 minutes ago, Curtains said:

Mega  rich well that’s ironic as they ain’t  showing it up to this point .

They bidders come across as miserable miserly people to me. 

Mega rich because they are astute business men (and to be successful in business you do have to be quite miserly and watch every penny)

They have  zero emotional attachment to DCFC. Why would they pay more than they have to? There is a point where the price becomes no longer an astute purchase and they walk away. 

Feels like some people assume there is an emotional element to these bidders. There is not. The sums either add up or they don't, and they move on

[twelveincher]

10 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

Mega rich because they are astute business men (and to be successful in business you do have to be quite miserly and watch every penny)

They have  zero emotional attachment to DCFC. Why would they pay more than they have to? There is a point where the price becomes no longer an astute purchase and they walk away. 

Feels like some people assume there is an emotional element to these bidders. There is not. The sums either add up or they don't, and they move on

Bingo. Unfortunately they don’t owe us any favours, and it’s apparent we’re going to need help from some other parties to get any deal over the line

[Alty_Ram]

28 minutes ago, Chester40 said:

I'm sure they do.

If I were Mel, no way would I want to be leveraged by Ashley to give him the stadium and save him £20mill when he has billions in the bank and has a reputation of further asset stripping rather then investment.

Maybe cutting a deal with the council feels much more palatable for Mel.

I had exactly the same thought. He loses either way financially of course but one route may potentially be less of an ego blow. We really don't know what the bidders will do if gifted a stadium (re-mortgage it to the hilt ?) but we have a fair idea that the local council would run it in a way that was better for the club.

[rammieib]

2 hours ago, TuffLuff said:

Just a simple bit of maths that say Derby is ‘worthless’ without the stadium to suit their argument.

Lets say Derby have 25,000 fans worldwide who spend money in some way towards the club. Yeah I’ve plucked that figure out of nowhere but I’d guess its probably on the low side. Then let’s say, again on average, they spend £500 a season on things related to Derby County. Season tickets, shirts, Rams TV, merchandise for family members, suites on a matchday, food and drink in the concourses etc etc etc. Some will be less but some will be more.

That alone comes to £12.5 million. Whether I’m high or low on that figure, point is the fan base itself is worth millions before considering players, staff, brand (which is really underestimated here in regards to its value to Derby County and it’s place within the football make up. 

Is it worth £30 million without the stadium? Heck knows, but we are worth something getting towards that when you start adding it all together. 
 

 

The Problem with this post is that you're conveniently forgetting the £20-£30m a year of outgoing costs.

So £10 Million income (Once you remove the VAT) from Ticket Sales and £10m from TV revenue (Albeit that drops significantly in League One).

You have an academy cost of £7.5m To sustain.

You have a players wage bill of £10m to sustain.

You have 100 other employees with a bill of £2m to sustain.

You have business rates, Insurances, massive amount of costs (You saw the £5m creditor list)

Give you a simple idea, if you had a lot of money, you would buy a company for circa 6-12 times its EBIT. In English, if a business was making profit of £1 Million per year, you would buy them for £6-£12 Million. Of course - lots of other factors go into deciding that value - namely assets (Property, cash and in a football club, the players). 

Now the two bidders for Derby are offering £30m for a business which is A) Loss making and B) About to take a big hit to revenue if we are relegated. They are getting 5 players under contract and that is it. Any new buyer is almost certainly going to need to subsidise the club to the tune of £5m per year for the first few seasons. It's completely understandable they want the stadium included.

Any normal businessman wouldn't buy this club - there is literally nothing that is commercially appealing. The only thing for me I can see is that the infrastructure in place, the ground, the goodwill (Fans future income) would enable the club to reach the PL and stay there, thus generate an income stream of hundreds of Millions however, this is the same dream our last owner tried to do and failed.

 

[curb]

1 hour ago, The Scarlet Pimpernel said:

If the council buy the stadium and gain an asset how much is the club worth to an investor? Only minimal assets, goodwill, heritage & potential. Against that huge debts to settle. In other words, without the stadium how much is the club worth?

We’re in negative equity.

The debts that need paying to even carry on in the league, we’d need to contract 25 or so players, on the plus side we have 5 saleable players who would fetch maybe 10-12 million (as a desperate seller), and a fan base that doesn’t cover the outgoings going forward.

I guess without the stadium thrown in we’re worthless.

[ram59]

53 minutes ago, Chester40 said:

I'm sure they do.

If I were Mel, no way would I want to be leveraged by Ashley to give him the stadium and save him £20mill when he has billions in the bank and has a reputation of further asset stripping rather then investment.

Maybe cutting a deal with the council feels much more palatable for Mel.

Possibly we're in this situation because of MM's reluctance toagree a deal with potential buyers over the last couple of years. Maybe this situation is arising again with the sale of the ground, by selling the ground to the council, they could act as an intermediary owner for a number of years and take out the personal conflicts between seller and buyer.

[CBRammette]

59 minutes ago, Chester40 said:

I'm sure they do.

If I were Mel, no way would I want to be leveraged by Ashley to give him the stadium and save him £20mill when he has billions in the bank and has a reputation of further asset stripping rather then investment.

Maybe cutting a deal with the council feels much more palatable for Mel.

Well perhaps he should have thought about that before creating this ?

[strawhillram]

2 minutes ago, CBRammette said:

Well perhaps he should have thought about that before creating this ?

A good point well  made

[NottsRam77]

1 hour ago, Unlucky Alf said:

A fanbase can be a downfall depending where/when DCFC are bought, Are we going to get 25k if we're relegated and on -15 points in league 1?

Are we going to get the above if liquidation is the only option?

I'm sure there is a die hard support and there's a set of supporters who will go whatever the situation, But, New owners will have a budget on what they hope and think support will be on projected ST sales and tickets sold for single games.

Agree … i did deliberately throw in IF they get that team in black and white playing.

what im aslo saying is they will also look a the big picture.

Short term we all expect pain, but ride that out and get a club the size and prestige of derby rocking again and ur getting a bargain.

If ur looking for an investment .. what u going to get ? A blackburn? A preston? Who get what 12k fans ??

I know this is all down a long road which will be littered with pitfalls and i dont really want to say but we are to big to let fall by the wayside, theres an opportunity there for the right person 

on a side note, we’re not too big, no club is , just relatively it feels that way 

[i-Ram]

1 hour ago, Chester40 said:

I'm sure they do.

If I were Mel, no way would I want to be leveraged by Ashley to give him the stadium and save him £20mill when he has billions in the bank and has a reputation of further asset stripping rather then investment.

Maybe cutting a deal with the council feels much more palatable for Mel.

Bottom line is Mel wants MSD repaid - be that £20m or £22m or even a bit more - from this administration process.

Ashley, nor any other serious businessperson imo, is going to pay large bucks for the club without taking full stadium ownership. So if Morris sells to the Council I think Ashley and others will walk away from the table (not that Ashley is overly close to the table at the minute). No matter what all the twisting and turning of this thread, the problem is Morris. He should personally settle the debts with MSD, and agree to hand ‘our stadium’ back, foc, as part of the sale. The Administrators can then actually complete their job which is to get the best recovery possible for the creditors, and to make sure who they select through the process, has the wherewithal to run the club after it comes out of administration. In short, cough up and duck off Morris.