Survive if we convert 1-in-3 draws into wins?

[ram59]

At the half way point of the season, I've noticed the following;

Add the 9 points deducted for financial irregularities and we would be 23rd

or add the 12 points for going into administration, we would be 22nd

or add the 17 points lost from winning positions, we would be 19th

or add them all together and another 38 points would put us 1 point behind the top team, with a game in hand.

[Ken Tram]

45 minutes ago, plymouthram said:

We need 12 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats then. Well we have lost 7 in the 1st half of the season, so we have to match that in the 2nd half. Double our wins and cut down on the draws. !2 winnable games, Cardiff home and away, Reading away, Sheff Utd home, Brum home, Hull home, Peterboro home, Barnsley home, Preston home, Bristol home, Blackpool away and one other which could be a surprise/shock result. 4 draws could come from  Stoke away, Forest away, Swansea away and QPR away.

But this will only happen if we start scoring more goals, Plange, Stretton or an incoming striker in the transfer window ?                                 I think its a tall order, but not impossible, we will have to see.

I'm afraid that "double what we have" (continuing on our current form) will only get us to 35 points.

Based on Cardiff's form so far, we will need 47 points.

Therefore we will need 16 wins (and 20 draws), not just 12 wins.

Can you find us 4 more draws that we can convert into wins (and the 10 more draws that we will need)?

Edited December 27, 2021 by Ken Tram

[Ken Tram]

I've just seen that Cardiff at home is our last game of the season.

Imagine if the away fixture were that week too!

A proper six-pointer. Good for the ratings @EFL!

[Ken Tram]

It would keep the chase alive, if we only had to close to 6 points of Cardiff by the last week of the season.

Edited December 28, 2021 by Ken Tram

[Ram-Alf]

69 points to play for.

Can our defence get any better...I doubt it.

Can we get players in that will help in the attacking department...I really hope so.

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will tell us where we are at this week ?‍♂️

 

[SamUltraRam]

Average points for the team finishing 3rd bottom in the last 10 seasons is 44. Take out a couple of anomalies in that time and the average drops to 42/43

 

So every 6 games we need to W3 D1 L2 

From the end of January to early March we have 5 home games - 4 of them are against Birmingham, Hull, Peterborough & Barnsley - must wins

Edited December 28, 2021 by SamUltraRam

[PistoldPete]

We have only won six games at half way stage. Five of those have been at home. We are still very poor away from home and have been almost all season. Decent draws at Fulham and West Brom, but lost to Barnsley, Birmingham  and Peterborough. We need to start winning away otherwise there will be no Great  Escape. 

[Tyler Durden]

2 hours ago, PistoldPete said:

We have only won six games at half way stage. Five of those have been at home. We are still very poor away from home and have been almost all season.  We need to start winning away otherwise there will be no Great  Escape. 

Tell Rooney he needs to sort it out 

[Ken Tram]

7 hours ago, SamUltraRam said:

Average points for the team finishing 3rd bottom in the last 10 seasons is 44. Take out a couple of anomalies in that time and the average drops to 42/43

 

So every 6 games we need to W3 D1 L2 

From the end of January to early March we have 5 home games - 4 of them are against Birmingham, Hull, Peterborough & Barnsley - must wins

I understand your point.

However, two years ago it was 48 pts for survival. And this season, the leaders are not making 2 points per game, and how does that affect survival targets? So what is the best target to use? 40, 48, 51 or 54.

If we go for 54, even the most optimistic will be miserable. If we go for 43, then I think we may be kidding ourselves.

What I've done is taken the team most likely to finish 21st (not currently Reading because of the points deduction), and scale their results up over the remainder of the season 

This currently comes out at 47.

There's no perfect way, but the advantage of this way is that it takes into account this year's squads and long-term form, runs of wins and losses, squad depth, and everything. But it isn't a super computer, just a simple projection.

Also, I think it helps us to know that a non-minimum target is not unachievable.

PS. We need points for 4th bottom, not 3rd bottom.

[Ken Tram]

7 hours ago, PistoldPete said:

We have only won six games at half way stage. Five of those have been at home. We are still very poor away from home and have been almost all season. Decent draws at Fulham and West Brom, but lost to Barnsley, Birmingham  and Peterborough. We need to start winning away otherwise there will be no Great  Escape. 

We need to convert "1-in-n" draws into wins, like we do on Saturday.

So, we may not be to win huge numbers of away games - just some.

My gut feeling is that our best chance comes from carrying on as we have been, and using set-pieces, to nick wins.

What worries me is to if we try too hard to get wins, we will end up with fewer draws, and fewer chances to convert them into wins.

And, as the season ends draws closer, we will have the advantage over teams panicking as a catch them, so the other teams around us may collapse.

[Simmo’s left foot]

Interestingly, if we use total points per game so far and apply that to the remaining games it suggests 35 points. However if we use the average points per game from the last 6 games it suggests 45 points.. So if we keep scratching out a few wins we could potentially be on track to be close.. it will be interesting to see how the next 2 games go!

 

[Jimbo Ram]

20 hours ago, ram59 said:

At the half way point of the season, I've noticed the following;

Add the 9 points deducted for financial irregularities and we would be 23rd

or add the 12 points for going into administration, we would be 22nd

or add the 17 points lost from winning positions, we would be 19th

or add them all together and another 38 points would put us 1 point behind the top team, with a game in hand.

21 points is what we have been deducted ?

[Ken Tram]

On 27/12/2021 at 17:08, Ken Tram said:

Post West Brom (27 Dec) (Played 23)

Derby County Table

P:23 W:06 D:10 L:07 = 28-21 = 07 Pts (Current)
P:46 W:12 D:20 L:14 = 56-21 = 35 Pts (Final - with form-to-date)
P:46 W:16 D:20 L:10 = 68-21 = 47 Pts (Final - with conversions*)"

* Draws into wins: 1 in 2.5 (40% of games we've been drawing)
* Losses into draws: 1 in 3.5 (29% of games we've been losing)"

 

4 minutes ago, Simmo’s left foot said:

Interestingly, if we use total points per game so far and apply that to the remaining games it suggests 35 points. However if we use the average points per game from the last 6 games it suggests 45 points.. So if we keep scratching out a few wins we could potentially be on track to be close.. it will be interesting to see how the next 2 games go!

 

It is not an impossible leap from 35 to 47 points! (It is not as if we need to turn every single draw into a win - far from it.

[Rammy03]

It's not impossible.

So far we've earned 28 points. But obviously due to the deduction we only have 7. If we perform in the second half of the season, the same as we have the first half then we'd end up on 35 points. The average is 45 to survive. So we need to improve and get an extra 10 points.

While the first half of the season has been ok, I actually think we can do better. We have lost and drawn games we should have won. Forest, Preston we only got a point when we should have won with the way we performed. Barnsley and Peterborough I'd argue we should be taking three points. Took the lead in both games then we collapsed. So let's say we turn those games into wins. That would give us the extra 10 points exactly.

Remember we have Bielik to come back and he's one of the best players in the league. We should improve with him in the side. If you look at it like this, the great escape is on.

[Ken Tram]

If Cardiff lose this evening, our survival points target reduces to 44. It still reduces (from 47 to 46) if they draw, or if they win and overtake Hull in the table.

[Ken Tram]

I have updated the format of the post-match survival target information - so, hopefully, it will be clearer than it has been after the previous matches!

[Sparkle]

We need to win two thirds of our matches which will require one and probably two regular goal scorers - who knows where they could come from 

[Kernow]

I had a bet with my Manchester United supporting mate after we went into admin but before the additional points deduction. If Rooney keeps us up with more than 15 points deducted, I'd get his face tattooed on my chest.

Any suggestions of which photograph of Wayne Rooney I should take to the tattoo parlour?

[Ken Tram]

Post Stoke (30 Dec) (Played 24)

Target team (most likely to finish 21st)
Cardiff City
P:23 W:06 D:04 L:13 = 22 Pts (Current Table)
P:46 W:12 D:08 L:26 = 44 Pts (Final Table - current form)

Survival Target:
44 Pts
(1.55 Pts per remaining game)

Derby County
P:24 W:07 D:10 L:07 = 31-21 = 10 Pts
P:46 W:13 D:19 L:14 = 58-21 = 37 Pts (Final - current form)
P:46 W:15 D:20 L:11 = 65-21 = 44 Pts (Final - required form)

Required Results
From 22 more matches:
8 wins, 10 draws & 4 losses
(10 Pts + 34 Pts = 44 Pts)

Emulated form:
37.2 Pts from 24 games
Equivalent to: QPR (7th)

Required conversion rates
Win 2 of the 9 games we've been drawing
(1 in 4.5) or (22%)
Draw 3 of the 7 games weve been losing
(1 in 2.3) or (43%)

Can we do it?
If we replayed our 7 wins, could we still win all 7?
If we replayed our 10 draws, could we convert 2.2 into wins?
If we replayed our 7 defeats, could we convert 3.0 into draws?
Can we identify those games that we think we could have converted?
If so, this is what our required form could look like!

[Albert]

Today certainly helps. 

We're now on 10 points, but really, spreading that points deduction as a 'per game' thing, we're, for the sake of comparison, really on 20. 

It's still a long way to go, and we need a good run to get us closer to wiping out the deficit, but really, we're doing far better than seemed possible already.