Survive if we convert 1-in-3 draws into wins?

[Ken Tram]

9 minutes ago, Albert said:

Today certainly helps. 

We're now on 10 points, but really, spreading that points deduction as a 'per game' thing, we're, for the sake of comparison, really on 20. 

It's still a long way to go, and we need a good run to get us closer to wiping out the deficit, but really, we're doing far better than seemed possible already. 

Good point. If we were on 20 points, we would only be 2 points behind Cardiff (1 behind Reading - but they would be 3 points higher on the points deduction per game basis that you used). Wow - it does show how close we are getting if we can continue with this sort of form. 

[Kernow]

Obviously a much more simplified way of looking at things, and there's a lot of other considerations not taken in to account in this such as Cardiff's one game in hand and the form of every other side in the league but...

We have to play Cardiff twice still. A lot of ifs and buts, but if we can't beat them twice then our chances get a hell of a lot worse. So let's assume we can beat them twice, that 12 point gap would be 6 points, with a much better goal difference.

In the remaining 20 games we'd have once you take the Cardiff games away, we'd have to win 2 more than Cardiff to finish above them. So if Cardiff are the team to chase, it's not really than unattainable with the fight and desire we're showing.

[Ken Tram]

3 minutes ago, Kernow said:

Obviously a much more simplified way of looking at things, and there's a lot of other considerations not taken in to account in this such as Cardiff's one game in hand and the form of every other side in the league but...

We have to play Cardiff twice still. A lot of ifs and buts, but if we can't beat them twice then our chances get a hell of a lot worse. So let's assume we can beat them twice, that 12 point gap would be 6 points, with a much better goal difference.

In the remaining 20 games we'd have once you take the Cardiff games away, we'd have to win 2 more than Cardiff to finish above them. So if Cardiff are the team to chase, it's not really than unattainable with the fight and desire we're showing.

You have made it clear! Win 2 more than Cardiff, and beat them twice.

... or win 4 more than Cardiff, but take equal points from the Cardiff games. Or win 6 more games than Cardiff, and be able to lose both Cardiff games.

[Kernow]

Just now, Ken Tram said:

You have made it clear! Win 2 more than Cardiff, and beat them twice.

... or win 4 more than Cardiff, but take equal points from the Cardiff games. Or win 6 more games than Cardiff, and be able to lose both Cardiff games.

It's just a simplistic way of looking how we finish above Cardiff, although that obviously doesn't take in to account the miraculous run Peterborough or Barnsley will go on now there's a glimmer of hope!

It's remarkable though that just setting our sights on finishing above the nearest target club (discounting Reading because of their deduction) isn't that unlikely a prospect anymore...

[Ken Tram]

Just now, Kernow said:

It's just a simplistic way of looking how we finish above Cardiff, although that obviously doesn't take in to account the miraculous run Peterborough or Barnsley will go on now there's a glimmer of hope!

It's remarkable though that just setting our sights on finishing above the nearest target club (discounting Reading because of their deduction) isn't that unlikely a prospect anymore...

I genuinely thought it was a good way to describe it! (I hope that I didn't sound sarcastic!)

I think it really helps to try to find ways to visualise what is needed - when points per game is such a difficult thing to visualise! Great stuff

[Ken Tram]

10 minutes ago, Kernow said:

Obviously a much more simplified way of looking at things, and there's a lot of other considerations not taken in to account in this such as Cardiff's one game in hand and the form of every other side in the league but...

We have to play Cardiff twice still. A lot of ifs and buts, but if we can't beat them twice then our chances get a hell of a lot worse. So let's assume we can beat them twice, that 12 point gap would be 6 points, with a much better goal difference.

In the remaining 20 games we'd have once you take the Cardiff games away, we'd have to win 2 more than Cardiff to finish above them. So if Cardiff are the team to chase, it's not really than unattainable with the fight and desire we're showing.

So, thinking about the Cardiff Poll - when is best to play them - would you now opt for a double-header at the end of the season with 6 points on the line - or get the first Cardiff game out of the way as soon as possible!? (Did you vote - what did you go for?)

[Kernow]

Just now, Ken Tram said:

I genuinely thought it was a good way to describe it! (I hope that I didn't sound sarcastic!)

I think it really helps to try to find ways to visualise what is needed - when points per game is such a difficult thing to visualise! Great stuff

I didn't think it was sarcastic don't worry, I just think the way I described it made it look a lot more of a straightforward task than it actually is. The fact we can even have this discussion at this stage of the season is a blessing on its own.

[DCFC1388]

Remaining home games - 

Sheff U

Birmingham

Hull

PBoro

Millwall

Barnsley

Coventry

Preston

Fulham

Bristol C

Cardiff

Got to be looking at winning 8 of those 11 if we realistically want to stay up

Edited December 30, 2021 by DCFC1388

[Kernow]

Just now, Ken Tram said:

So, thinking about the Cardiff Poll - when is best to play them - would you now opt for a double-header at the end of the season with 6 points on the line - or get the first Cardiff game out of the way as soon as possible!? (Did you vote - what did you go for?)

Voting right now I would want it asap. We're on a good run, they're struggling. I think they will try and arrange it for as soon as possible too in case other games are lost to Covid between now and the end of the season. Perhaps they'll wait and see how we both get on in the Cup, if there's a free weekend there that's a possibility.

I'm sure that Sky and the EFL would love the spectacle of us being 6 points behind Cardiff and having them as the last two games of the season. I'm not sure my heart could take that though, the Sheffield Wednesday game was bad enough but that would be even worse.

[Ken Tram]

When I started this thread, we needed to carry on the season as we had, but convert 1 in 3 of the games that we had been drawing into wins. Now, that figure is to convert 1 in 4.5 games that we had been drawing into wins.

looking back at our 10 draws,  could we have won two of them? Yes! 

So, the best news is that it means that our squad is capable of doing it - and lots were saying that our squad was not up to it!

(I still think it will be close, because we are still going to draw and lose some games! We cannot play the top-6 every week!) ?

[kevinhectoring]

What will happen if we convert 3 in 3 draws into wins ? 

[Ken Tram]

3 minutes ago, DCFC1388 said:

Remaining home games - 

Sheff U

Birmingham

Hull

PBoro

Millwall

Barnsley

Coventry

Preston

Fulham

Bristol C

Cardiff

Got to be looking at winning 8 of those 11 if we realistically want to stay up

It certainly helps to start identifying which teams we want to do what against ...

I think that we may not need to win quite as many home games as you think.

If we are on 10 points, and need 44 points, we need 34 more points. So, you're saying that to stay up, we need 24 points from 11 home games; and 10 points from 11 away games. I reckon that we can afford to get fewer than 24 points from the home games and still have a good chance of survival.

[Kernow]

7 minutes ago, DCFC1388 said:

Remaining home games - 

Sheff U

Birmingham

Hull

PBoro

Millwall

Barnsley

Coventry

Preston

Fulham

Bristol C

Cardiff

Got to be looking at winning 8 of those 11 if we realistically want to stay up

Right now, I'd probably pick out 8 of those where if you told me we'd drawn it I would be disappointed.

Birmingham, Hull, Peteborough, Barnsley, Coventry, Preston, Bristol City and Cardiff are all games we are more than capable of winning at home.

Fulham, Millwall and Sheffield United are the toughest on paper, but we've already proven we can pull results out of the bag in the tough games. What's crucial now is that we don't do what we tend to do in recent seasons, and lose to the teams near the bottom at home. When we were challenging in the play-offs, Peterborough at home is the kind of game we'd slip up in. Now they're our direct rival, we can't afford to let any sides increase the gap at our expense.

[plymouthram]

On 27/12/2021 at 23:00, plymouthram said:

We need 12 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats then. Well we have lost 7 in the 1st half of the season, so we have to match that in the 2nd half. Double our wins and cut down on the draws. !2 winnable games, Cardiff home and away, Reading away, Sheff Utd home, Brum home, Hull home, Peterboro home, Barnsley home, Preston home, Bristol home, Blackpool away and one other which could be a surprise/shock result. 4 draws could come from  Stoke away, Forest away, Swansea away and QPR away.

But this will only happen if we start scoring more goals, Plange, Stretton or an incoming striker in the transfer window ?                                 I think its a tall order, but not impossible, we will have to see.

Feeling smug, Plange scored, and the Stoke match I picked out for a draw. So thats our surprise win, lets hope the other teams  I picked out to win against come to fruition. Need to find another draw against another opponent in our remaining games. That would give us 47 points. If thats not enough, then  hope we climb above the current 2 teams above us and Reading balls up and have their other 6 points that are currently suspended activated.

[Ken Tram]

17 minutes ago, kevinhectoring said:

What will happen if we convert 3 in 3 draws into wins ? 

On current form, we can expect 6 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses.

If we convert 3 out of 3 (9 out of 9) draws into wins, that would be 15 wins and 7 losses.

If we convert 2 of the 7 losses into draws, that leaves 15 wins 2 draws and 5 losses.

That is another 47 points, so on top of our 10 points, we would end up with 57 points.

...

But ... you may ask, what if we could convert the losses into wins too! Ask! Well, 22 wins would leave us with 76 points, which has been enough to get into the play-offs in 4 of the last 7 years!

....

That is what could happen if we convert 3 out of 3 into wins!

PS. Did today feel like a win ... or feel like a draw that we were lucky to win?

....

The conversion rates are really for looking back at games played so far, and thinking about whether or not our squad could have won n number of the draws, and then deciding whether survival is possible.

[Ken Tram]

4 minutes ago, plymouthram said:

Feeling smug, Plange scored, and the Stoke match I picked out for a draw. So thats our surprise win, lets hope the other teams  I picked out to win against come to fruition. Need to find another draw against another opponent in our remaining games. That would give us 47 points. If thats not enough, then  hope we climb above the current 2 teams above us and Reading balls up and have their other 6 points that are currently suspended activated.

Yay on lots of counts!

That this was one of our converted draws into wins! That you are focusing on 47 points, yet Cardiff are now on track for only 44. And that Reading might get another six points deducted. Triple yay! Hip hip hip hooray!

[BriggRam]

13 hours ago, DCFC1388 said:

Remaining home games - 

Sheff U

Birmingham

Hull

PBoro

Millwall

Barnsley

Coventry

Preston

Fulham

Bristol C

Cardiff

Got to be looking at winning 8 of those 11 if we realistically want to stay up

Every single 1 of those fixtures is winnable

[Ken Tram]

If we have to emulate the form of QPR, in 7th. And if our form over the last five games is top 5. Then we are on track for survival!

[Ken Tram]

 Post Reading (3rd Jan) (Played 25)

Target team (most likely to finish 21st)
Cardiff City
P:24 W:06 D:05 L:13 = 23 Pts (Current Table)
P:46 W:12 D:10 L:24 = 46 Pts (Final Table - current form)

Survival Target:
46 Pts
(1.67 Pts per remaining game)

Derby County
P:25 W:07 D:11 L:07 = 32-21 = 11 Pts
P:46 W:13 D:20 L:13 = 59-21 = 38 Pts (Final - current form)
P:46 W:16 D:19 L:11 = 67-21 = 46 Pts (Final - required form)

Required Results
From 21 more matches:
9 wins, 8 draws & 4 losses
(11 Pts + 35 Pts = 46 Pts)

Required conversion rates
Win 3 of the 9 games we've been drawing
(1 in 3.0) or (33%)
Draw 2 of the 6 games weve been losing
(1 in 3.0) or (33%)

Can we do it?
If we replayed our 7 wins, could we still win all 7?
If we replayed our 11 draws, could we convert 3.7 into wins?
If we replayed our 7 defeats, could we convert 2.3 into draws?
Can we identify those games that we think we could have converted?
If so, this is what our required form could look like!

Equivalent form:
41.8 Pts from 25 games
Equivalent to: West Brom (4th)

[DCFC1388]

We need 11+ points from every batch of 7 games, so 11/21 points available.

Requires an average of 1.65 ppg

Our current ppg is 1.28