Survive if we convert 1-in-3 draws into wins?

[Gritstone Ram]

1 hour ago, Ken Tram said:

Run-ins - based on season-to-date form

Post Peterborough (Played 32)

20: Hull City
   P:33 W:09 D:07 L:17 = 34 Pts
+ P:13 W:04 D:03 L:06 = 15
= P:46 W:13 D:10 L:23 = 49 Pts

21: Reading
   P:32 W:09 D:05 L:18 = 32-6 = 26 Pts
+ P:14 W:04 D:02 L:08 = 14
= P:46 W:13 D:07 L:26 = 46-6 = 40 Pts

22 (R): Derby County
   P:32 W:10 D:12 L:10 = 42-21 = 21 Pts
+ P:14 W:04 D:05 L:05 = 17
= P:46 W:14 D:17 L:15 = 59-21 = 38 Pts

23 (R): Peterborough
   P:31 W:05 D:06 L:20 = 21 Pts
+ P:15 W:02 D:03 L:10 = 09
= P:46 W:07 D:09 L:30 = 30 Pts

24 (R): Barnsley
   P:31 W:03 D:08 L:20 = 17 Pts
+ P:15 W:01 D:04 L:10 = 07
= P:46 W:04 D:12 L:30 = 24 Pts

Current Survival Target:
40 Pts
(1.36 Pts per remaining game)

Survival form is equivalent to:
43.5 Pts from 32 games
Equivalent to: Stoke (13th)

First 23 games this season we averaged 1.04 points per game so far in the second half of the season we are averaging 1.88 points. Some tough games to come though.

[Dimmu]

1 hour ago, ck- said:

How do we factor in Reading’s new manager bounce?

Scientifically, it's a myth. It might happen, or more likely not.

If there's a bounce, it's usually correlating with different line-up which new manager might set up.

[Ken Tram]

Run-ins - based on season-to-date form

Post Millwall (Played 33)

20: Hull City
   P:34 W:09 D:07 L:18 = 34 Pts
+ P:12 W:03 D:02 L:07 = 11
= P:46 W:12 D:09 L:25 = 45 Pts

21: Reading
   P:33 W:10 D:05 L:18 = 35-6 = 29 Pts
+ P:13 W:04 D:02 L:07 = 14
= P:46 W:14 D:07 L:25 = 49-6 = 43 Pts

22 (R): Derby County
   P:33 W:10 D:12 L:11 = 42-21 = 21 Pts
+ P:13 W:04 D:05 L:04 = 17
= P:46 W:14 D:17 L:15 = 59-21 = 38 Pts

23 (R): Barnsley
   P:32 W:04 D:08 L:20 = 20 Pts
+ P:14 W:02 D:04 L:08 = 10
= P:46 W:06 D:12 L:28 = 30 Pts

24 (R): Peterborough
   P:32 W:05 D:06 L:21 = 21 Pts
+ P:14 W:02 D:03 L:09 = 09
= P:46 W:07 D:09 L:30 = 30 Pts

Current Survival Target:
43 Pts
(1.69 Pts per remaining game)

Survival form is equivalent to:
55.8 Pts from 33 games
Equivalent to: QPR (3rd)

[Ken Tram]

Based upon season-to-date form, we are on track to be 5-points short of Reading. That means we need to be 5 points better than we have been playing to date. Not impossible. We can afford to lose some more games! (As long as we get the wins and draws too!)

[Ken Tram]

Run-ins - based on season-to-date form

Post Luton (Played 34)

20: Hull City
   P:35 W:10 D:07 L:18 = 37 Pts
+ P:11 W:03 D:02 L:06 = 11
= P:46 W:13 D:09 L:24 = 48 Pts

21: Reading
   P:34 W:10 D:05 L:19 = 35-6 = 29 Pts
+ P:12 W:04 D:02 L:06 = 14
= P:46 W:14 D:07 L:25 = 49-6 = 43 Pts

22 (R): Derby County
   P:34 W:10 D:12 L:12 = 42-21 = 21 Pts
+ P:12 W:04 D:04 L:04 = 16
= P:46 W:14 D:16 L:16 = 58-21 = 37 Pts

23 (R): Barnsley
   P:33 W:05 D:08 L:20 = 23 Pts
+ P:13 W:02 D:03 L:08 = 09
= P:46 W:07 D:11 L:28 = 32 Pts

24 (R): Peterborough
   P:33 W:05 D:06 L:22 = 21 Pts
+ P:13 W:02 D:02 L:09 = 08
= P:46 W:07 D:08 L:31 = 29 Pts

Current Survival Target:
43 Pts
(1.83 Pts per remaining game)

Survival form is equivalent to:
62.2 Pts from 34 games
Equivalent to: Bournemouth (2nd)

[Ramifications]

Sad to say, but for myself I have almost accepted we probably won't be playing in the Championship next season. 

For me it was the loss to Millwall and the fact that Reading won the night before, I think it was. Up until that point I truly believed. 

Still, if we beat both Cardiff and Barnsley things will look different. 

It is time CKR scored a few goals. 

[Ken Tram]

Run-ins - based on season-to-date form

Post Barnsley (Played 36)

20: Hull City
   P:36 W:10 D:07 L:19 = 37 Pts
+ P:10 W:03 D:02 L:05 = 11
= P:46 W:13 D:09 L:24 = 48 Pts

21: Reading
   P:35 W:10 D:05 L:20 = 35-6 = 29 Pts
+ P:11 W:03 D:02 L:06 = 11
= P:46 W:13 D:07 L:26 = 46-6 = 40 Pts

22 (R): Derby County
   P:36 W:11 D:12 L:13 = 45-21 = 24 Pts
+ P:10 W:03 D:03 L:04 = 12
= P:46 W:14 D:15 L:17 = 57-21 = 36 Pts

23 (R): Barnsley
   P:34 W:05 D:08 L:21 = 23 Pts
+ P:12 W:02 D:03 L:07 = 09
= P:46 W:07 D:11 L:28 = 32 Pts

24 (R): Peterborough
   P:34 W:05 D:06 L:23 = 21 Pts
+ P:12 W:02 D:02 L:08 = 08
= P:46 W:07 D:08 L:31 = 29 Pts

Current Survival Target:
40 Pts
(1.6 Pts per remaining game)

Survival form is equivalent to:
57.6 Pts from 36 games
Equivalent to: Blackburn (4th)

[Ken Tram]

Season-to-date form has us finishing 4 points off Reading ... but 4 points is not impossible to get on top of season-to-date form.

[Ken Tram]

Run-ins - based on season-to-date form
Post Preston (Played 40)

20: Hull City
   P:40 W:11 D:08 L:21 = 41 Pts
+ P:06 W:02 D:01 L:03 = 07
= P:46 W:13 D:09 L:24 = 48 Pts

21: Reading
   P:39 W:11 D:07 L:21 = 40-6 = 34 Pts
+ P:07 W:02 D:01 L:04 = 07
= P:46 W:13 D:08 L:25 = 47-6 = 41 Pts

22 (R): Derby County
   P:40 W:12 D:13 L:15 = 49-21 = 28 Pts
+ P:06 W:02 D:02 L:02 = 08
= P:46 W:14 D:15 L:17 = 57-21 = 36 Pts

23 (R): Barnsley
   P:39 W:06 D:11 L:22 = 29 Pts
+ P:07 W:01 D:02 L:04 = 05
= P:46 W:07 D:13 L:26 = 34 Pts

24 (R): Peterborough
   P:39 W:06 D:08 L:25 = 26 Pts
+ P:07 W:01 D:01 L:05 = 04
= P:46 W:07 D:09 L:30 = 30 Pts

Current Survival Target:
41 Pts
(2.17 Pts per remaining game)

Survival form is equivalent to:
86.8 Pts from 40 games
Equivalent to: Fulham (1st)

[Ken Tram]

After all this time, we may survive if we convert 1-in-2 expected draws into wins.

If the season-to-date has us winning 2, drawing 2, and losing 2 - and we convert 1 draw into a win, and 1 loss into a draw - that would be 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, giving us 11 points.

11 more points would take us to 39 points.

Reading currently have 34 points. So, we would have to hope that Reading only get 1 win and 2 draws, with 4 losses.

As ever, the odds are against us, but they are good enough for us and the team to still believe! (Either way, if we are due at least two more wins and two more draws, we still have some good moments to come, even if we do not survive in the championship.)

If we are relegated, it will have been the strangest season - being proud of a team that got relegated. This may help some of us - it's a bit like beating Man U in the cup, but still getting knocked out the next round and not getting promoted. The pride in the team carries us forward.