Survive if we convert 1-in-3 draws into wins?

[Ken Tram]

6 hours ago, r_wilcockson said:

This team CAN win 6 out of 16 games, no question. If we can pick up a couple of draws as well we should be there or thereabouts. I must admit, I'm not ready for missing out on survival by 1 point as per the current prediction!

I agree with you. When I started the thread with the "convert 1 in 3 draws into wins" - the point was that our squad was capable of doing it.

But the one-point margin shows just how tight it could be.

I think that as we catch up the others, then our confidence will grow, while their confidence will drop off! (I hope.)

Edited February 9, 2022 by Ken Tram

[Ken Tram]

STOP PRESS - OUR FORM IS NOW SURVIVAL FORM!!!

Based on season-to-date form of us and the other teams around us.

[Ken Tram]

20th: Cardiff City run-in: based on season-to-date form
   P:29 W:09 D:05 L:15 = 32 Pts
+ P:17 W:05 D:03 L:09 = 18
= P:46 W:14 D:08 L:24 = 50 Pts

21st: Derby County run-in: based on season-to-date form
   P:30 W:09 D:12 L:09 = 39-21 = 18 Pts
+ P:16 W:05 D:06 L:05 = 21
= P:46 W:14 D:18 L:14 = 60-21 = 39 Pts

22nd: Reading run-in: based on season-to-date form
   P:29 W:08 D:04 L:17 = 28-6 = 22 Pts
+ P:17 W:05 D:02 L:10 = 17
= P:46 W:13 D:06 L:27 = 45-6 = 39 Pts

23rd: Peterborough run-in: based on season-to-date form
   P:28 W:05 D:05 L:18 = 20 Pts
+ P:18 W:03 D:03 L:12 = 12
= P:46 W:08 D:08 L:30 = 32 Pts

24th: Barnsley run-in: based on season-to-date form
   P:29 W:02 D:08 L:19 = 14 Pts
+ P:17 W:01 D:05 L:11 = 08
= P:46 W:03 D:13 L:30 = 22 Pts

[TigerTedd]

1 hour ago, Ken Tram said:

I agree with you. When I started the thread with the "convert 1 in 3 draws into wins" - the point was that our squad was capable of doing it.

But the one-point margin shows just how tight it could be.

I think that as we catch up the others, then our confidence will grow, while their confidence will drop off! (I hope.)

I’m supremely confident we’ll make it now. The only slight question mark I have now is whether or not fatigue will be a factor. We’ve got a tiny threadbare squad that have worked incredibly hard. Hopefully we can keep it going. 

teams down here are down here for a reason. Because they’re crap. Or because they’ve had a massive points deduction. We are the latter. Everyone else is crap. 

Normally we’re competing for the play offs at this point if a season, where you’re wondering where competitors will be dropping points. They’re up there for a reason, they don’t drop many points. But down where we are, these teams might not pick up another 10 points all season. We only got 7 from this stage last season.

me en if they pick up form a little big with January improvements, they’re not suddenly going to become world beaters. Games in hand don’t mean anything down here, teams are far more likely to loose them, so they can’t be counted as 3pts in the bag.

we’re easily good enough to make up the required 4pts. I honestly think we’ll clear reading by a distance, it won’t be last day, it won’t even be close. 

And I really hope we overtake them by 6pts. It would be nice if we did this on our own terms, and it wasn’t their points deduction that saved us (not that I would care that much, as long as we’re saved). 

[Quagga]

I suspect the mental bit has completely switched.
When we were on minus points, it's was all about Rooney keeping the team focused and motivated to just keep going. And the other teams had rather written us off as 1 of the 3 going down, i.e. teamtalk is lets not be one of the other two.

Now though, with Cardiff coming into form it's looking very much like 3 from 4. And Derby are right back in the mix. 
So Wayne just needs to keep the team doing exactly what it has been doing, and it's the other managers that need something special, because they know Derby's form is so much better than theirs.

Barnsley - won 2 games all season - last win 3rd Nov (against the rams!)
Peterborough - won 5 games, but 4 of those were in Oct or earlier
Reading - lost 7 out of the last 8

And if Cardiff are indeed safe - how hard will they try in those 2 games they've got with us

It's also interesting to re-forecast those final positions based on the form table of the last 12 games. My Maths make it Cardiff 56; Derby 42; Reading 30.5; Peterborough 27.5; Barnsley 26.

Of course they probably won't be as bad as that, but for the last 25% of the season they have been. and in reality they don't need to be, we just need to get our noses in front and I suspect, their motivation will go. Ironically I think Wayne's then got a problem stopping our players thinking that it's all over.
 

[24Charlie]

Reading can’t keep losing like they are. Cardiff where right in the mire and have won 4 on the bounce to pull away. 
The bookies have Peterborough surviving though I don’t see that. 
Reading have not responded well to their points deduction and I am hoping that the defeatist attitude has set in there in the same way it did in 2008 for us.

But they are the team with the squad to go on an run of good results and put some real pressure on us.

I think we could be ahead of them by the end of the month but then the hunter becomes the hunted so we’ll see how we cope with that switch 

If we can keep key players fit then we have a chance now.

[Ken Tram]

12 hours ago, Quagga said:

It's also interesting to re-forecast those final positions based on the form table of the last 12 games. My Maths make it Cardiff 56; Derby 42; Reading 30.5; Peterborough 27.5; Barnsley 26.

That's amazing survival clearance based on the last 12 games! Good work.

[Ken Tram]

11 hours ago, 24Charlie said:

Reading can’t keep losing like they are. Cardiff where right in the mire and have won 4 on the bounce to pull away. 

I think that's why I use season-to-date form. It is the most pessimistic, but takes into account these sporadic groups of wins.

[Ken Tram]

The more doable it is, the more nervous I am getting.

[tinman]

1 minute ago, Ken Tram said:

I think that's why I use season-to-date form. It is the most pessimistic, but takes into account these sporadic groups of wins.

I use an average of season so far and the last 6 games. 
 

[Ken Tram]

1 minute ago, tinman said:

I use an average of season so far and the last 6 games. 
 

Do you weight them equally?

[tinman]

17 minutes ago, Ken Tram said:

Do you weight them equally?

Yep, keeping it simple. 
 

PPG at this point over the season won’t change too much, but a burst of results can have a sharp impact.  although as the season goes on the impact on season PPG diminishes. 
for example our season PPG will put us on 28 points, but the last 6 games will put us on 39. That’s quite a difference. And Readings is virtually the opposite. 

[BramcoteRam84]

30 minutes ago, Ken Tram said:

The more doable it is, the more nervous I am getting.

And this is going to be the main challenge for the players. Michael Dawson hit the nail on the head, once Derby get into the position where they’re out the bottom 3 then the pressure comes on, we’ve not had any pressure all season. That’s where Rooney will need to come into his own especially with such a young team.

But I think the band of brothers mentality backed by the fans will see us through. That combined with with class and leadership of Bielik Lawrence and Curtis….and of course Rooney

Edited February 10, 2022 by BramcoteRam84

[Quagga]

3 hours ago, BramcoteRam84 said:

And this is going to be the main challenge for the players. Michael Dawson hit the nail on the head, once Derby get into the position where they’re out the bottom 3 then the pressure comes on, we’ve not had any pressure all season. That’s where Rooney will need to come into his own especially with such a young team.

But I think the band of brothers mentality backed by the fans will see us through. That combined with with class and leadership of Bielik Lawrence and Curtis….and of course Rooney

Agreed.
It's going to be mentally difficult to maintain the intensity, equally though it will be clear to the players that as a team they are better than those teams around them, so it's not like Rooney has to ask them to run through walls.
It's the managers of the other teams that need their players to step up

[Ken Tram]

Post Boro (Played 31)

Cardiff City run-in: based on season-to-date form
   P:30 W:09 D:05 L:16 = 32 Pts
+ P:16 W:05 D:03 L:08 = 18
= P:46 W:14 D:08 L:24 = 50 Pts

Derby County run-in: based on season-to-date form
   P:31 W:09 D:12 L:10 = 39-21 = 18 Pts
+ P:15 W:04 D:06 L:05 = 18
= P:46 W:13 D:18 L:15 = 57-21 = 36 Pts

Reading run-in: based on season-to-date form
   P:30 W:08 D:04 L:18 = 28-6 = 22 Pts
+ P:16 W:04 D:02 L:10 = 14
= P:46 W:12 D:06 L:28 = 42-6 = 36 Pts

Peterborough run-in: based on season-to-date form
   P:29 W:05 D:05 L:19 = 20 Pts
+ P:17 W:03 D:03 L:11 = 12
= P:46 W:08 D:08 L:30 = 32 Pts

Barnsley run-in: based on season-to-date form
   P:30 W:03 D:08 L:19 = 17 Pts
+ P:16 W:02 D:04 L:10 = 10
= P:46 W:05 D:12 L:29 = 27 Pts

[Ken Tram]

Survival form is equivalent to:
37.2 Pts from 31 games
Equivalent to: Bristol City (16th)

[Ken Tram]

Run-ins - based on season-to-date form

Post Middlesbrough (After P'borough v Reading) (Played 31)

20: Hull City
   P:32 W:09 D:06 L:17 = 33 Pts
+ P:14 W:04 D:03 L:07 = 15
= P:46 W:13 D:09 L:24 = 48 Pts

21: Reading
   P:31 W:08 D:05 L:18 = 29-6 = 23 Pts
+ P:15 W:04 D:02 L:09 = 14
= P:46 W:12 D:07 L:27 = 43-6 = 37 Pts

22 (R): Derby County
   P:31 W:09 D:12 L:10 = 39-21 = 18 Pts
+ P:15 W:04 D:06 L:05 = 18
= P:46 W:13 D:18 L:15 = 57-21 = 36 Pts

23 (R): Peterborough
   P:30 W:05 D:06 L:19 = 21 Pts
+ P:16 W:03 D:03 L:10 = 12
= P:46 W:08 D:09 L:29 = 33 Pts

24 (R): Barnsley
   P:30 W:03 D:08 L:19 = 17 Pts
+ P:16 W:02 D:04 L:10 = 10
= P:46 W:05 D:12 L:29 = 27 Pts

Current Survival Target:
37 Pts
(1.27 Pts per remaining game)

Survival form is equivalent to:
39.4 Pts from 31 games
Equivalent to: Blackpool (15th)

[Ken Tram]

Run-ins - based on season-to-date form

Post Peterborough (Played 32)

20: Hull City
   P:33 W:09 D:07 L:17 = 34 Pts
+ P:13 W:04 D:03 L:06 = 15
= P:46 W:13 D:10 L:23 = 49 Pts

21: Reading
   P:32 W:09 D:05 L:18 = 32-6 = 26 Pts
+ P:14 W:04 D:02 L:08 = 14
= P:46 W:13 D:07 L:26 = 46-6 = 40 Pts

22 (R): Derby County
   P:32 W:10 D:12 L:10 = 42-21 = 21 Pts
+ P:14 W:04 D:05 L:05 = 17
= P:46 W:14 D:17 L:15 = 59-21 = 38 Pts

23 (R): Peterborough
   P:31 W:05 D:06 L:20 = 21 Pts
+ P:15 W:02 D:03 L:10 = 09
= P:46 W:07 D:09 L:30 = 30 Pts

24 (R): Barnsley
   P:31 W:03 D:08 L:20 = 17 Pts
+ P:15 W:01 D:04 L:10 = 07
= P:46 W:04 D:12 L:30 = 24 Pts

Current Survival Target:
40 Pts
(1.36 Pts per remaining game)

Survival form is equivalent to:
43.5 Pts from 32 games
Equivalent to: Stoke (13th)

[ck-]

How do we factor in Reading’s new manager bounce?

[Ken Tram]

1 hour ago, ck- said:

How do we factor in Reading’s new manager bounce?

I'm not sure. There are clever people doing projections based upon recent form. I am simply using season-to-date-form.

There's only two points in it - that's just converting one game that we're expecting to draw into a win.

And when this thread began, we needed to convert three draws into wins.

So, we are on the right track!

Edited February 19, 2022 by Ken Tram