Survive if we convert 1-in-3 draws into wins?

[Ken Tram]

Post QPR (Played 20)

Target Team - Cardiff City
P:20 W:06 D:03 L:11 = 21 Pts (After 20 played)
P:46 W:14 D:07 L:25 = 49 Pts (Final: on current form)

Survival Target:
49 Pts (1.85 per game)
Equivalent form:
Bournemouth (2nd)

Derby County
P:20 W:04 D:10 L:06 = 22-21 = 01 Pts (After 20 played)
P:46 W:09 D:23 L:14 = 50-21 = 29 Pts (Final: on current form)
P:46 W:16 D:22 L:08 = 70-21 = 49 Pts (Final: with conversions*)

* Draws into wins: 1 in 1.9 (54% of games we've been drawing)
* Losses into draws: 1 in 2.3 (43% of games we've been losing)

[Ken Tram]

Post Bristol City (Played 21)

Target Team - Hull City
P:21 W:06 D:04 L:11 = 22 Pts (After 21 played)
P:46 W:13 D:09 L:24 = 48 Pts (Final: on current form)

Survival Target:
48 Pts (1.88 per game)
Equivalent form:
Bournemouth (2nd)

Derby County
P:21 W:04 D:10 L:07 = 22-21 = 01 Pts (After 21 played)
P:46 W:09 D:22 L:15 = 49-21 = 28 Pts (Final: on current form)
P:46 W:16 D:21 L:09 = 69-21 = 48 Pts (Final: with conversions*)

* Draws into wins: 1 in 1.7 (58% of games we've been drawing)
* Losses into draws: 1 in 2.5 (40% of games we've been losing)

[Ken Tram]

With my positive hat on - we could say that last weekend was a good result! Before the match, our target points for the end of the season worked out at 49 points - and after the game it had dropped to 48. So, that can only be good news! 

The bad news is that to get 48 points, we need to produce a form that is equivalent to what Bournemouth has been achieving so far this season.

The good news, of course, is that we beat Bournemouth.

[Ken Tram]

But, just two games earlier, the expected points target was 43 points!  COYR. Now, in addition to the games that we have been winning, all we need to do is convert 58% of the games that we have been drawing into wins, and only 40%  of the losses into draws. (Sadly, it does not seem as achievable as converting 1-in-3 of our draws into wins ...) 

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

My play on this if I was the manager would be getting the team to go balls out for 28 points so they don't have twits going on about how they would have gone down anyway. That's achievable.  Pride would surely dictate you should bust every sinew to get to that target ASAP.  Anything else would be a bonus but as a player I'd be going 100% on that target minute 1-90. even if I wound puking at the hour mark and carrying on.  

[Tamworthram]

10 hours ago, Ken Tram said:

With my positive hat on - we could say that last weekend was a good result! Before the match, our target points for the end of the season worked out at 49 points - and after the game it had dropped to 48. So, that can only be good news! 

The bad news is that to get 48 points, we need to produce a form that is equivalent to what Bournemouth has been achieving so far this season.

The good news, of course, is that we beat Bournemouth.

D- for your maths/logic.
 

It’s not good news. You seem to be ignoring the fact that we have fewer games left to achieve the said “target points”. Therefore, although only marginal, the average points per game target (probably a better way to look at it) will have gone up.

 

Edited December 7, 2021 by Tamworthram

[Rammy03]

11 hours ago, Ken Tram said:

With my positive hat on - we could say that last weekend was a good result! Before the match, our target points for the end of the season worked out at 49 points - and after the game it had dropped to 48. So, that can only be good news! 

The bad news is that to get 48 points, we need to produce a form that is equivalent to what Bournemouth has been achieving so far this season.

The good news, of course, is that we beat Bournemouth.

At the end of the day we can't say for sure what the points needed for survival will be. The average is 45, last season it was even less than that. We just have to hope that a few teams drop like a stone so we can take advantage

Edited December 7, 2021 by Rammy03

[strawhillram]

Let’s hope a few  other clubs get points deducted

[Ken Tram]

8 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

D- for your maths/logic.
 

It’s not good news. You seem to be ignoring the fact that we have fewer games left to achieve the said “target points”. Therefore, although only marginal, the average points per game target (probably a better way to look at it) will have gone up.

 

I was very much searching for silver linings. Nevertheless, given that we lost, if the expected target points is one fewer, that can be seen as the equivalent of a point gained! Therefore, we got the equivalent of a draw on Saturday!

(This doesn't take away the fact that we need to get the points, and that there are fewer games to do it.)

Actually! If we had drawn on Saturday, but the expected points needed had not changed, we'd be in the same position. So it was as good news as a draw would have been if the expected target had not changed. (An actual win or draw would have been ideal!) 

[Ken Tram]

7 hours ago, Rammy03 said:

At the end of the day we can't say for sure what the points needed for survival will be. The average is 45, last season it was even less than that. We just have to hope that a few teams drop like a stone so we can take advantage

Ggg

At least one team may drop like a stone. If we're catching them up, will be steaming, and it will put pressure on the teams above.

But the only team we need to care about is the one that is in 21st.

44 points would have been enough in 4 of the past 7 seasons. (3 of the last 4.) However it can be 50+.

What I did to estimate the points needed ... was to take the number of points of the team currently in 21st, work out their points per game, and when work out what equates to for 46 games.

If I have time, I want to see if there is a pattern between the points of relegated teams, and how many points they had in December. Maybe it is affected by his the promotion charts are doing. For example, when the promotion chasers have relatively low points at December, perhaps that means that the trusted teams end up with higher points at the end of the season. I don't know if there'll be a pattern.

If there is a pattern, it may help give a more reliable prediction of how many points will be needed.

[Tamworthram]

51 minutes ago, Ken Tram said:

I was very much searching for silver linings. Nevertheless, given that we lost, if the expected target points is one fewer, that can be seen as the equivalent of a point gained! Therefore, we got the equivalent of a draw on Saturday!

(This doesn't take away the fact that we need to get the points, and that there are fewer games to do it.)

Actually! If we had drawn on Saturday, but the expected points needed had not changed, we'd be in the same position. So it was as good news as a draw would have been if the expected target had not changed. (An actual win or draw would have been ideal!) 

I admire your attempt at searching for silver linings but I’m not sure I follow your logic or how us and our target teams all losing can be positive (except of course they didn’t win or draw). Over the course of the remaining games we need to better their points tally. Any weeks that we don’t reduces our opportunity to close the game by another game.

[Ken Tram]

Mathematically, it happens because we have a higher points per game than our competitors, coupled with us still being in the first half of the season. If our competitors lose a game, their end of season expected points falls by more than it does for us if we lose a game.

--------------------------------------

Say if you need £49 pounds to buy a season ticket for next year, the following two scenarios are equivalent:

1. Your friend gives you a raffle ticket, and the prizes are £1 or £3. Unfortunately, you don't win any money. However, you do find £1 behind the sofa. In this scenario, even though you did not win any money at the Christmas Bazaar, you now only need to find £48 to buy next year's season ticket.

2. In the second scenario, your luck is in, and you win £1 in the raffle. However, you do not find any money behind the sofa because your landlord has been in and pilfered it, and has spent it! Nevertheless, you are £1 up because of the raffle win, and only need £48 to buy next year's season tickets.

In both scenarios, you end up needing £48 for next year's season ticket.

--------------------------------------

The analogy is that even though we did not win a point on Saturday, the expected number of points needed for survival dropped by one point, so we still have the same number of points to get in the same number of games (in the scenario that we had drawn, but the target points had not gone down).

---------------------------------------

Don't get me wrong - it would have been better for us to have won or drawn!!! But, if the target for survival had gone up, that would have been worse.

Furthermore, as you will have seen from the sums, to get 48 points, we need to play with the form of Bournemouth. This seems like a very dark lined rain cloud. However, looking for silver linings - if the teams above us lose then the survival target points will fall too. Also, the target will jump around quite a bit - it was as low as 43 after the Fulham game.

I hope that this helped to explain.

 

 

[Ken Tram]

"... that [could] have been worse." ... if we had lost and the survival target had gone up.

[Ken Tram]

The good news is that I have written a little spreadsheet to do the calculations - so I can give you an update after each match. ? 

How much more fortunate can you be?

[Foreveram]

25 minutes ago, Ken Tram said:

The good news is that I have written a little spreadsheet to do the calculations - so I can give you an update after each match. ? 

How much more fortunate can you be?

Don’t get out much do you ?

[kingsy1884]

Am I the only one that thinks that "surviving" at this stage means literally having a team to go and watch...... regardless of the league we are in?

Edited December 8, 2021 by kingsy1884

[Foreveram]

I’ve worked out a simple formula which is it is still possible to stay up until it’s not possible to stay up.

[FindernRam]

1 hour ago, Ken Tram said:

The good news is that I have written a little spreadsheet to do the calculations - so I can give you an update after each match. ? 

How much more fortunate can you be?

I used to do that but gave up when I found my predictions were way off!

For another thread maybe; I also tried to replicate the Horace Bachelor Infradraw method. The fact I live in Derby not in the Caribbean shows how well that worked.

My favourite prediction site (which uses some fairly sound principles) is fivethirtyeight.com. This has us down with 30 points when safety is 53. So even restoring our penalty points wouldn't be enough.?

[Tamworthram]

3 hours ago, Ken Tram said:

Mathematically, it happens because we have a higher points per game than our competitors, coupled with us still being in the first half of the season. If our competitors lose a game, their end of season expected points falls by more than it does for us if we lose a game.

--------------------------------------

Say if you need £49 pounds to buy a season ticket for next year, the following two scenarios are equivalent:

1. Your friend gives you a raffle ticket, and the prizes are £1 or £3. Unfortunately, you don't win any money. However, you do find £1 behind the sofa. In this scenario, even though you did not win any money at the Christmas Bazaar, you now only need to find £48 to buy next year's season ticket.

2. In the second scenario, your luck is in, and you win £1 in the raffle. However, you do not find any money behind the sofa because your landlord has been in and pilfered it, and has spent it! Nevertheless, you are £1 up because of the raffle win, and only need £48 to buy next year's season tickets.

In both scenarios, you end up needing £48 for next year's season ticket.

--------------------------------------

The analogy is that even though we did not win a point on Saturday, the expected number of points needed for survival dropped by one point, so we still have the same number of points to get in the same number of games (in the scenario that we had drawn, but the target points had not gone down).

---------------------------------------

Don't get me wrong - it would have been better for us to have won or drawn!!! But, if the target for survival had gone up, that would have been worse.

Furthermore, as you will have seen from the sums, to get 48 points, we need to play with the form of Bournemouth. This seems like a very dark lined rain cloud. However, looking for silver linings - if the teams above us lose then the survival target points will fall too. Also, the target will jump around quite a bit - it was as low as 43 after the Fulham game.

I hope that this helped to explain.

 

 

I feel you must be right but it still doesn’t make any sense to me how we can better off than our target teams if we all lose.

We are currently 21 points behind Cardiff with 25 games remaining which means we need 0.84 points per game just to close the game.

Before the weekend, when we both lost, we were still 21 points behind but we had 26 games remaining meaning our required points per game was slightly lower at 0.80. 
 

Using your logic, if we’re better off if we all lose, at what point would this longer be true? At the end of the season, as you rightly say, the target for survival will reduce each week ((down to 21 by season end) but we’d have run out of games. Target points is only half the story. You also need to factor in the number of remaining games.

[Ken Tram]

18 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

I feel you must be right but it still doesn’t make any sense to me how we can better off than our target teams if we all lose.

We are currently 21 points behind Cardiff with 25 games remaining which means we need 0.84 points per game just to close the game.

Before the weekend, when we both lost, we were still 21 points behind but we had 26 games remaining meaning our required points per game was slightly lower at 0.80. 
 

Using your logic, if we’re better off if we all lose, at what point would this longer be true? At the end of the season, as you rightly say, the target for survival will reduce each week ((down to 21 by season end) but we’d have run out of games. Target points is only half the story. You also need to factor in the number of remaining games.

You may be right! I'll have to get out a piece of paper* and work out the ppg.

* Or ... I could break out my new early-Christmas Galaxy Tablet and see if it can really replicate a pad of paper.