Relegation rivals watch

[Rammy03]

barnsley 3-0 now. Boro you bunch of bankers

[BramcoteRam84]

Now Blackpool 2 Reading 1!!

[scout's dad]

Barnsley in court on Monday. Gibbo presiding

 

[Bris Vegas]

Games are running out. Eight points is massive with only 36 points left to play for. 

As bad as Reading have been, we have only taken four more points than them over the last ten games. In fact, over the last 10 games, we have only taken 11 points anyway which is nowhere near the standard we need.

With back-to-back away games at Blackburn and Bournemouth to come, anything less than six points from our next two and we are done unfortunately.

[Ken Tram]

Run-ins - based on season-to-date form

Post Luton (Played 34)

20: Hull City
   P:35 W:10 D:07 L:18 = 37 Pts
+ P:11 W:03 D:02 L:06 = 11
= P:46 W:13 D:09 L:24 = 48 Pts

21: Reading
   P:34 W:10 D:05 L:19 = 35-6 = 29 Pts
+ P:12 W:04 D:02 L:06 = 14
= P:46 W:14 D:07 L:25 = 49-6 = 43 Pts

22 (R): Derby County
   P:34 W:10 D:12 L:12 = 42-21 = 21 Pts
+ P:12 W:04 D:04 L:04 = 16
= P:46 W:14 D:16 L:16 = 58-21 = 37 Pts

23 (R): Barnsley
   P:33 W:05 D:08 L:20 = 23 Pts
+ P:13 W:02 D:03 L:08 = 09
= P:46 W:07 D:11 L:28 = 32 Pts

24 (R): Peterborough
   P:33 W:05 D:06 L:22 = 21 Pts
+ P:13 W:02 D:02 L:09 = 08
= P:46 W:07 D:08 L:31 = 29 Pts

Current Survival Target:
43 Pts
(1.83 Pts per remaining game)

Survival form is equivalent to:
62.2 Pts from 34 games
Equivalent to: Bournemouth (2nd)

[RoyMac5]

Just now, Bris Vegas said:

Games are running out. Eight points is massive with only 36 points left to play for. 

As bad as Reading have been, we have only taken four more points than them over the last ten games. In fact, over the last 10 games, we have only taken 11 points anyway which is nowhere near the standard we need.

With back-to-back away games at Blackburn and Bournemouth to come, anything less than six points from our next two and we are done unfortunately.

We are not done until it is mathematically impossible. By all means point out the difficulties and the games and results we'd need. But do not say factually incorrect statements. #COYR

[OoooMarkWright]

The last 2 games I had is down for a minimum of 2 points, possibly 4. We got zero. The gaps 8 points with 12 to play. We have a tough March with Bournemouth and Blackburn away. The hope is slowly ebbing away. We need 3 points at Cardiff.

[Ken Tram]

But, don't we often have a dip in February? Let's hope we bounce back in March!

[Bris Vegas]

1 minute ago, RoyMac5 said:

We are not done until it is mathematically impossible. By all means point out the difficulties and the games and results we'd need. But do not say factually incorrect statements. #COYR

Well yes Aston Villa could also still win the Premier League and Amir Khan could still become undisputed heavyweight world champion. It’s not impossible, but you’re on the magic beans thinking such things.

I’m not trying to squash anyone’s hopes but our chances are falling away drastically. 

Only 36 points left to play for. It’s not a lot when you have to better another team by eight points with what’s left.

[Ken Tram]

Based on season-to-date form, we are predicted to fall six points short of Reading. But that means that if we play as we have been, but get two lucky wins that should have been losses, then we are up and amongst it.

The problem is that this form will look like top-two form.

Survival is unlikely - so the best thing that we can do is keep cool heads, play with level heads, and hope that the chances come our way. (I am not sure that chasing wins is the best strategy - getting draws, and lucky winners might be best.) 

[Tamworthram]

1 hour ago, Ken Tram said:

Based on season-to-date form, we are predicted to fall six points short of Reading. But that means that if we play as we have been, but get two lucky wins that should have been losses, then we are up and amongst it.

The problem is that this form will look like top-two form.

Survival is unlikely - so the best thing that we can do is keep cool heads, play with level heads, and hope that the chances come our way. (I am not sure that chasing wins is the best strategy - getting draws, and lucky winners might be best.) 

My own rather optimistic predictor has us finishing above Peterborough but a point behind Barnsley and 3 behind Reading. So, obviously assuming the others perform as predicted, it needs us picking up either a win or three draws in the games I have us down to lose (Fulham at home, Bournemouth, Blackburn, Cardiff and Swansea away)

[Bald Eagle's Barmy Army]

Just done my predictor and it says we still have a chance, so I’ll take that. 

[BramcoteRam84]

We still have a chance so we still have to believe. The players and coaching staff deserve nothing less. 
 

We’ll fight to the end! ?

[Tombo]

1 hour ago, Ken Tram said:

The problem is that this form will look like top-two form

Possibly in isolation, but if you counted our 2 wins in our last 8 it wouldn't look so remarkable.

The funny thing about form is that sometimes you get to pick and choose the parameters. If you lose back-to-back games as we have it looks pretty poor. Look back at the 3 games prior and it was 2 wins and a loss, which is 2 points per game. Top 2 form!

I know you're talking about a longer stretch than that but my point remains.

Last 12 games, if you said 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses, that's 40 points total, which could possibly do it, or is not far off. 19 points from 12 games is not unfeasible really.

Even accounting for our poor form at the moment on a longer span, we're averaging 1.23 PPG. At that rate we're on for 37 points at the end of the season. Bearing in mind that we're below where we have been and we know we need to improve, it's not much improvement from our form over 34 games that we need. Win one that we should have lost and you're at that 40 number. Win another and its 43.

3 points are HUGE at the end of the league we're at. And we're capable of getting more of them. We've had some huge 3 points this season and we'll have more. It's not quite over yet

[JfR]

Oh dear, how sad, never mind

[Sparkle]

7 minutes ago, JfR said:

Oh dear, how sad, never mind

Not their player - on loan from Arsenal but a shame for the lad 

[Wignall12]

14 minutes ago, JfR said:

Oh dear, how sad, never mind

Thanks Sergeant-Major !!

[DCFC1388]

We need to win 5/6 home games & hope to pick up some on the road

[atherstoneram]

4 hours ago, The Big One said:

Reading 6 point deduction - not happening so we can forget that.  Refers to wrong season for one.

From what i have seen and part of their business plan they will have one of the cheapest wage bills this season and certainly next.  

High earners already gone and they have only 6 contracted players for the start of this season.  If they go down they will free fall, so they are massively fighting for club survival and championship status.

The same could equally said about us.

[plymouthram]

I still believe 42 points could keep us in the Championship. Which means winning half of our remaining games and picking up 3 draws, could be a tall order and that would also mean Reading getting no more than 13 points in their remaining 12 matches. Reading's next 4 games are against teams all in with a chance of getting promotion. Millwall (h), Forest (a), Bournemouth (a) and Blackburn (h).

We have 6 home games left and to get 6 wins we would have to get 3 points away in possibly 2 games. It's a tall order, but possible with a bit of lady luck with other teams results against Reading and our matches. Sorry to write off Peterborough and Barnsley, but  they have both only won 5 games each (Barnsley winning 3 of theirs in the last 4 matches which is great but not form they will continue to do).

If we lose at Cardiff and don't beat Barnsley at home, I would have to state we will get relegated. So the next 2 matches are vital and as it stands the bookies would say the current bottom 3 will go down. But there's always a team that goes on a run with a dozen games to go and there's always a team that does the opposite. Lets hope it's the Rams on the run and Reading or Cardiff that go on a long losing streak.