Relegation watch

[Ghost of Clough]

5 minutes ago, brady1993 said:

If all teams currently in the bottom 10 carry on their form of the past 10 games till the end of the season:

Blackburn 52 pts

Forest 52pts

Huddersfield 51pts

Preston 50pts

Rotherham 49pts*

Derby 47pts

Coventry 47pts

Birmingham 46pts

Sheff Weds 38pts

Wycombe 33pts

*It's worth noting the obvious that Rotherham have a lot of games in hand and it's hard to say how much the compressed fixture schedule will play a part.

Viewing things in that way I'd say it would take a remarkable turn around for Wednesday to avoid the drop, they'd have to change their current form to something like top 6 form. Going from 0.7 ppg to 1.7 ppg (or higher) is highly likely unfeasible and that's around what they would need to scrape out of this. 

The more pertinant question is what about us ? On the basis of that crude prediction it would have just scraping out of it and if things play out in a similar manner I think an awful lot will ride on that Birmingham fixture. What concerns me though is that our form has perhaps been dropping and if you exclude the first game of the last 10 it bring the points per game down from 0.9 to 0.67. If we look at it terms of calender months this is what it looks like (all months contain 6 games except January which had 4):

Dec 1.83 ppg

January 2.25 ppg

Feb 1.67 ppg

Mar 0.33 ppg

It's not the most robust to draw conclusions from that but does crudely suggest form has been trending downwards. Now I wouldn't expect it to be as bad has it has been in March but from a cursory analysis I do think we aren't the worst bet for going down right now. Personally I think we scrape through but I'm really not sure how much of that is personal bias coming into play. Honestly with a margin being as fine as it is it would needed something of a far more robust analysis to make something like a prediction.

I do think our form and situation is such that if I were chairman I'd be seriously considering whether based on all evidence available whether to back Rooney or change managers right now. Now would be the best time to do it if you felt it gave the best chance of survival purely because it is currently salvagable and there is time for coaching. Either way is a gamble which is hard to attach odds to with a deeper more comprehensive analysis (and perhaps knowing the internal situation of the club).

 

 

I wonder how much of our downturn in results has been a result of a lack in fitness. Cocu seemingly didn't put much focus on fitness, and we certainly didn't have a good pre-season as a result. This carried on unto the season.

We had a noticeable improvement when Shane Nicholson was drafted in to help with the fitness side of things, but with the congested schedule, was it too much for us? 

Just look at Knight who was buzzing from one corner of the pitch to the other after 90 minutes early on in Rooney's reign. He's looked to be running at half pace from kick-off recently. With a 2 week break between games, the players should be fresh and ready to go again - perhaps an upturn in results?

[Mucker1884]

Aha!  So this is where everyone's been hiding!

 

Nobody thought to come in the play off thread and give me a shout then?  Y'know, a sort of "Hey Mucker, we're all over here now, if you fancy joining us"!

 

Well, shove it!  I ain't interested! 

 

[Brammie Steve]

Relegation watch?

Cissé would probably nominate this!

 

[Premier ram]

28 minutes ago, BondJovi said:

Most of that hinges on Rotherham's games in hand. If they pick up some momentum, the games being close together could be a blessing. They also are the type of team that loves a fight. We don't.

I fear for us if we don't get a result against Luton. The pressure will really be on then.

 

 

Luton is the key game for me , win and the feelgood factor will return , lose and i think we totally fall apart , 3pts is a must

[brady1993]

8 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I wonder how much of our downturn in results has been a result of a lack in fitness. Cocu seemingly didn't put much focus on fitness, and we certainly didn't have a good pre-season as a result. This carried on unto the season.

We had a noticeable improvement when Shane Nicholson was drafted in to help with the fitness side of things, but with the congested schedule, was it too much for us? 

Just look at Knight who was buzzing from one corner of the pitch to the other after 90 minutes early on in Rooney's reign. He's looked to be running at half pace from kick-off recently. With a 2 week break between games, the players should be fresh and ready to go again - perhaps an upturn in results?

I honestly don't know. I'm not sure I entirely buy the argument with fitness and Cocu 1) I could have sworn he made a point about it at the end of last season and 2) Didn't he bring in Nicholson in the first place ?

We definately seemed to come into the season undercooked but I do wonder how much of that was carrying a substantial amount of injuries from the end of last season and quite a large number of players essentially missing pre-season. I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that a big element of our lethargy earlier this season came from a combination of injuries, players missing pre-season and a reduced pre-season following a season where we had a small squad that was still "competing" until very late in the season.

The congested schedule has taken a toll for sure but I think a big element of that has been down to mismanagement with Knight being a example of that what with him playing pretty much regardless of system, opposition, form or where he is played in the team. A specific example I can point to of this was how we left him and Shinnie on until very late against Birmingham despite the game being long over and then a few days later they both look leggy after a half hour against Wednesday. There is also possibly a factor where because we don't control games particularly well with or without the ball, look to press a fair bit and never get to a point where the rest of the game is a formality by getting a comfortable lead that it leads to additional fatigue.

Fatigue definately could be playing a part but I think there are likely bigger issues at play especially as there is only really 2 games you can call an unqualified good performance under Rooney and I do strongly suspect that the uptick in results was more down to several players returning to full fitness combined with no longer playing Rooney and the typical bounce in results that generally follows a new manager. Personally I think there has been question marks over quite a substantial number of things throughout his reign. One of them being the philosophy of trying to stop the opponent above all else, which despite suggestions of it being a recent phenomona has been there from day 1 (just look at the Wycombe line and tell me that isn't the way it is to stop Wycombe). 

 

[BondJovi]

29 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I wonder how much of our downturn in results has been a result of a lack in fitness. Cocu seemingly didn't put much focus on fitness, and we certainly didn't have a good pre-season as a result. This carried on unto the season.

We had a noticeable improvement when Shane Nicholson was drafted in to help with the fitness side of things, but with the congested schedule, was it too much for us? 

Just look at Knight who was buzzing from one corner of the pitch to the other after 90 minutes early on in Rooney's reign. He's looked to be running at half pace from kick-off recently. With a 2 week break between games, the players should be fresh and ready to go again - perhaps an upturn in results?

I think fitness was picked up as an issue for this season. I remember Cocu saying about the energy Leeds had and something we needed. It was always going to take time, especially with a shortened pre season.

Perhaps that raises the question of why a so called championship expert couldn't advise the manager from the start we needed to be fitter for this league!

[WhiteHorseRam]

1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Our form is bad, but those around us aren't doing too much better.

Points picked up from the last 8 games:
Sheff W - 4
Rotherham - 6
Derby - 6
Wycombe - 7
Coventry - 8
Birmingham - 10

Extrapolated over the rest of the season:
19 - Coventry - 48 pts
20 - Birmingham - 48 pts
21 - Derby - 46 pts
22 - Rotherham - 44 pts
23 - Sheff W - 37 pts
24 - Wycombe - 34 pts

 

On the current BBC full table - Last 5 games - every team below us has a win.

Points out of the last 5 games - 

Derby - 2 pts (0.4 pts per game)

Coventry - 4 pts (0.8 pts per game)

Birmingham - 4 pts

Rotherham - 6 pts (a mighty 1.2 pts per game)

Wednesday - 4 pts 

Wycombe - 4 pts

8 games remaining x 0.4 pts = 3.2 pts, + 40 pts = 43 pts = Goodnight Vienna, as - 

Rotherham have 12 games left. 12 x 1.2 pts = 14 pts, + 35 pts = 49 pts

 

My tedious maths show how key a few wins would be, hence my hope for a return of momentum.

 

COYR (please)

[Rampage]

21 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Our form is bad, but those around us aren't doing too much better.

Points picked up from the last 8 games:
Sheff W - 4
Rotherham - 6
Derby - 6
Wycombe - 7
Coventry - 8
Birmingham - 10

Extrapolated over the rest of the season:
19 - Coventry - 48 pts
20 - Birmingham - 48 pts
21 - Derby - 46 pts
22 - Rotherham - 44 pts
23 - Sheff W - 37 pts
24 - Wycombe - 34 pts

Not much of a margin for an inexact science. We need to beat Luton, Brum and Wendies plus a draw or two to be safe in my opinion. Personally cannot see us winning those three games.

[Rampage]

20 hours ago, brady1993 said:

I honestly don't know. I'm not sure I entirely buy the argument with fitness and Cocu 1) I could have sworn he made a point about it at the end of last season and 2) Didn't he bring in Nicholson in the first place ?

We definately seemed to come into the season undercooked but I do wonder how much of that was carrying a substantial amount of injuries from the end of last season and quite a large number of players essentially missing pre-season. I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that a big element of our lethargy earlier this season came from a combination of injuries, players missing pre-season and a reduced pre-season following a season where we had a small squad that was still "competing" until very late in the season.

The congested schedule has taken a toll for sure but I think a big element of that has been down to mismanagement with Knight being a example of that what with him playing pretty much regardless of system, opposition, form or where he is played in the team. A specific example I can point to of this was how we left him and Shinnie on until very late against Birmingham despite the game being long over and then a few days later they both look leggy after a half hour against Wednesday. There is also possibly a factor where because we don't control games particularly well with or without the ball, look to press a fair bit and never get to a point where the rest of the game is a formality by getting a comfortable lead that it leads to additional fatigue.

Fatigue definately could be playing a part but I think there are likely bigger issues at play especially as there is only really 2 games you can call an unqualified good performance under Rooney and I do strongly suspect that the uptick in results was more down to several players returning to full fitness combined with no longer playing Rooney and the typical bounce in results that generally follows a new manager. Personally I think there has been question marks over quite a substantial number of things throughout his reign. One of them being the philosophy of trying to stop the opponent above all else, which despite suggestions of it being a recent phenomona has been there from day 1 (just look at the Wycombe line and tell me that isn't the way it is to stop Wycombe). 

 

How many players are not carrying an injury, however minor.

[FindernRam]

I don't buy into the pre-season fitness affecting us now. There's nothing like matches to build match fitness, youngsters like Sibley and Knight should manage 2 games a week ok. The oldies are a different matter.

To me the issue is a chronic loss of confidence coupled with an unsettled side. You need understanding with your mates so you don't need to think too much--Kane and Son for example. No-one seems to know when and where to make a run or pass. Torpid, turgid, tottering football.

Assuming Lawrence stays fit, Kazim recovers, Waggy settles with Rooney/Rosenior, Knight and Sibley recover some form, Bird learns how to pass, Wisdom to read the deep ball, we should be ok

Oh bother, that's blown it!!

[Gone]

Rotherham will have to play FOUR times in just eight days in order to fulfil their fixture schedule, interesting to see how they will get on with those squad

10th April vs Huddersfield 
13th April vs QPR
15th April vs Coventry
18th April vs Birmingham City

[AGR]

1 hour ago, TexasRam said:

Rotherham will have to play FOUR times in just eight days in order to fulfil their fixture schedule, interesting to see how they will get on with those squad

10th April vs Huddersfield 
13th April vs QPR
15th April vs Coventry
18th April vs Birmingham City

Can't help but feel a bit sorry for Coventry. Not their fault at all but can only work in our favour I suppose

[CBRammette]

On 24/03/2021 at 14:19, brady1993 said:

definately

Are you H?

[Spanish]

1 hour ago, AGR said:

Can't help but feel a bit sorry for Coventry. Not their fault at all but can only work in our favour I suppose

why?

I guess their following Saturday has been moved to Sunday.  Their game against them with be the third game their opponents have played in 6 days whereas they have a had a rest since Saturday.  This is very much to their advantage

[brady1993]

4 hours ago, Rampage said:

How many players are not carrying an injury, however minor.

I have zero idea as to that and I don't really see evidence for it bar CKR. 

[AGR]

9 minutes ago, Spanish said:

why?

I guess their following Saturday has been moved to Sunday.  Their game against them with be the third game their opponents have played in 6 days whereas they have a had a rest since Saturday.  This is very much to their advantage

They've gone from playing 17th & 21st April to 15th, 18th & 21st April

[Spanish]

6 minutes ago, AGR said:

They've gone from playing 17th & 21st April to 15th, 18th & 21st April

Thursday, Sunday, Wednesday?

just 3 games in a week which most teams have faced throughout the compressed season

[Foreveram]

Teams very rarely play three games in a week, managers commentators pundits and even fans go on about playing three games in a week when they play Saturday Tuesday Saturday.There is only seven days in a week not eight. Rant over.

[Ram-Alf]

54 minutes ago, Foreveram said:

play three games in a week, managers commentators pundits and even fans go on about playing three games in a week when they play Saturday Tuesday Saturday.There is only seven days in a week not eight. Rant over.

Friday 19th February

Championship

Watford 2 Derby County 1

FT

Tuesday 16th February

Championship

Wycombe Wanderers 1 Derby County 2

FT

Saturday 13th February

Championship

Derby County 2 Middlesbrough 1

[Spanish]

1 hour ago, Foreveram said:

Teams very rarely play three games in a week, managers commentators pundits and even fans go on about playing three games in a week when they play Saturday Tuesday Saturday.There is only seven days in a week not eight. Rant over.

It is a way of describing having a midweek game as apposed to not.  Regularly used phrase which instantly describes the scenario