jimmyp Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 19 minutes ago, rammieib said: Albert - my point was that the tolerance range applied from the next working day when you’ve got a solid trail behind it. Over time I agree that tolerance band gets bigger but not as wide as they have it on day one. That’s the uncertainty band. The top and the bottom of the uncertainty band are very unlikely to be a likely scenario. They are included as no one can predict the future with absolute certainty. You have to allow for uncertainty and show it so we can see how realistic the model is. It’s also why the blue shaded area only applies to the future and not the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyp Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 1 hour ago, TomBustler1884 said: Learned doctors? Yes. Even then they don’t claim to be experts on this speciality, none of them are respiratory specialists for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EtoileSportiveDeDerby Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 1 hour ago, FindernRam said: The point here is two fold... a)Who leaked it to the press? What did they expect to gain, it was going to be announced anyway. Implication is a Boris hater! Whoever it was should be sacked. b) Media spent all day analysing something that wasn't officially announced, thus creating a "truth" from a rumour and probably driving the agenda. This is irresponsible in the extreme and really is abusing press freedom. They should challenge government policy but not destroy it before its stated. Undermining the government in a time of national crisis is appalling no matter what your political persuasion. your points answered a) What about if rather than being a hater they were actually trying to do us all a favour ? Back in Sept when SAGE said we needed a mini lockdown/circuit breaker he went against their advice and absolutely hammered Starmer in PMQ for it. This time Bojo the clown was able to say well other countries have done it, we need to it blah blah blah. Have another U turn son, the car crash that could have been avoided hasn't. b) What is the job of the media, inform ? question ? challenge ? If you are really saying that the media created the "truth" and drove the agenda which resulted in national lockdown then god help us!! Weak does not even come anywhere close. Don't get me wrong I am not against the lockdown I just think the chancer is completely out of his depth. He could be helped by listening to the right advice rather than surround himself with one of the weakest cabinet seen in years, and cunning Dom of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ram1964 Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Lock down was inevitable with cases rising and in hindsight possibly should have been introduced earlier whilst schools were on half term. The problem with a lock down is it doesn't cure much, were all just hiding from the pandemic and it is still going to be out their when lock down eases. So how do we come out of a lock down without repeating the cycle of increased cases without a cure. The government in my opinion have dropped many clangers, although I doubt any other party would have coped any better, German ,French,Italian,Spanish government don't appear to have failed any better. Personally I think once cases have become managable, the economy requires to be opened,with the government concentrating on providing new investment for business to re establish whilst ,providing support to the population most vulnerable that may require to further shield . Xmas celebrations are dead in the water as we know of them. Retail outlets are going to struggle selling stock and the demand for two pound turkeys so never have been so great. I just hope, that the majority will abide to the new restrictions in order to help get covid under control and that the government have learnt from the last lockdown in order for us to progress whist no vaccine is available. Stay safe everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ram1964 Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Lock down was inevitable with cases rising and in hindsight possibly should have been introduced earlier whilst schools were on half term. The problem with a lock down is it doesn't cure much, were all just hiding from the pandemic and it is still going to be out their when lock down eases. So how do we come out of a lock down without repeating the cycle of increased cases without a cure. The government in my opinion have dropped many clangers, although I doubt any other party would have coped any better, German ,French,Italian,Spanish government don't appear to have failed any better. Personally I think once cases have become managable, the economy requires to be opened,with the government concentrating on providing new investment for business to re establish whilst ,providing support to the population most vulnerable that may require to further shield . Xmas celebrations are dead in the water as we know of them. Retail outlets are going to struggle selling stock and the demand for two pound turkeys so never have been so great. I just hope, that the majority will abide to the new restrictions in order to help get covid under control and that the government have learnt from the last lockdown in order for us to progress whist no vaccine is available. Stay safe everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjam Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 49 minutes ago, ram1964 said: I just hope, that the majority will abide to the new restrictions in order to help get covid under control and that the government have learnt from the last lockdown in order for us to progress whist no vaccine is available. Stay safe everyone I'm sure everything will be fine. *looks on twitter sees #WeWillNotComply trending* Meh, maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 2 hours ago, FindernRam said: The point here is two fold... a)Who leaked it to the press? What did they expect to gain, it was going to be announced anyway. Implication is a Boris hater! Whoever it was should be sacked. b) Media spent all day analysing something that wasn't officially announced, thus creating a "truth" from a rumour and probably driving the agenda. This is irresponsible in the extreme and really is abusing press freedom. They should challenge government policy but not destroy it before its stated. Undermining the government in a time of national crisis is appalling no matter what your political persuasion. Could it have been deliberately leaked with the aim of ‘softening the blow’ when it was actually announced and creating the feeling ‘well it could have been worse’ I.e. education, work, elite sport, unlimited exercise still open and a time limit (supposedly) It was a very detailed and accurate leak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramarena Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 53 minutes ago, maxjam said: I'm sure everything will be fine. *looks on twitter sees #WeWillNotComply trending* Meh, maybe not. 2020 in a nutshell! Right said fred become political agitators! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rammieib Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 3 hours ago, jimmyp said: That’s the uncertainty band. The top and the bottom of the uncertainty band are very unlikely to be a likely scenario. They are included as no one can predict the future with absolute certainty. You have to allow for uncertainty and show it so we can see how realistic the model is. It’s also why the blue shaded area only applies to the future and not the past. Jimmy - but why is it so wide from day 1? Day 30 plus yeah I get it, but not day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyp Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 21 minutes ago, rammieib said: Jimmy - but why is it so wide from day 1? Day 30 plus yeah I get it, but not day 1. The uncertainty margin is only normally displayed for future planning. The graph has been in use for a reasonable amount of time already so we aren’t on day 1. We have the data for the previous days so the uncertainty margin is removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FindernRam Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 2 hours ago, Monty said: Could it have been deliberately leaked with the aim of ‘softening the blow’ when it was actually announced and creating the feeling ‘well it could have been worse’ I.e. education, work, elite sport, unlimited exercise still open and a time limit (supposedly) It was a very detailed and accurate lea I might have gone with this had the conference taken place as planned and not the three hour delay we actually had. That implies it was unexpected and also presented without context. Whatever the intent the final presentation was a shambles, rather than a coherent explanation of the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sith Happens Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 unbelievable https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-54769055 Hopefully some whopping fines being handed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyinLiverpool Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 4 hours ago, FindernRam said: The point here is two fold... a)Who leaked it to the press? What did they expect to gain, it was going to be announced anyway. Implication is a Boris hater! Whoever it was should be sacked. b) Media spent all day analysing something that wasn't officially announced, thus creating a "truth" from a rumour and probably driving the agenda. This is irresponsible in the extreme and really is abusing press freedom. They should challenge government policy but not destroy it before its stated. Undermining the government in a time of national crisis is appalling no matter what your political persuasion. a) Michael Gove. He doesn't like Johnson very much. b) It's not abusing press freedom. It's the opposite. The press didn't create a 'truth' or destroy policy or undermine the government. The government did that all by itself. When one of your mechanisms for propaganda is to brief friendly journalists, sooner or later, you are going to end up looking stupid. That happened yesterday. Once the news had been leaked to the Daily Mail (where Michael Gove's wife works) and the Times (where Gove used to work), what did they expect would happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, AndyinLiverpool said: a) Michael Gove. He doesn't like Johnson very much. b) It's not abusing press freedom. It's the opposite. The press didn't create a 'truth' or destroy policy or undermine the government. The government did that all by itself. When one of your mechanisms for propaganda is to brief friendly journalists, sooner or later, you are going to end up looking stupid. That happened yesterday. Once the news had been leaked to the Daily Mail (where Michael Gove's wife works) and the Times (where Gove used to work), what did they expect would happen? You aren't giving Dom enough credit here. The leak was a plan so people focused on the shambles of the announcement, rather than the much more serious shambles of their dealing with Covid. Ignore the experts. Lockdown too late again. Ruin the economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sage Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 4 hours ago, FindernRam said: The point here is two fold... a)Who leaked it to the press? What did they expect to gain, it was going to be announced anyway. Implication is a Boris hater! Whoever it was should be sacked. b) Media spent all day analysing something that wasn't officially announced, thus creating a "truth" from a rumour and probably driving the agenda. This is irresponsible in the extreme and really is abusing press freedom. They should challenge government policy but not destroy it before its stated. Undermining the government in a time of national crisis is appalling no matter what your political persuasion. Who do you think leaked detailed government policy that not even MPs were consulted on, if not the government itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Contain Nuts Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 33 minutes ago, Sith Happens said: unbelievable https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-54769055 Hopefully some whopping fines being handed out. Mainly for their taste in music. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 1 hour ago, FindernRam said: I might have gone with this had the conference taken place as planned and not the three hour delay we actually had. That implies it was unexpected and also presented without context. Whatever the intent the final presentation was a shambles, rather than a coherent explanation of the situation. Agreed - more justification than explanation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G STAR RAM Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 50 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said: You aren't giving Dom enough credit here. The leak was a plan so people focused on the shambles of the announcement, rather than the much more serious shambles of their dealing with Covid. Ignore the experts. Lockdown too late again. Ruin the economy. So when should the lockdown have been done to save the economy out of interest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 14 hours ago, rammieib said: How did that ‘far more intelligence’ graph go with Witty/Valance a few weeks ago - they made tw@ts of themselves and lost any credibility they had left with a lot of the public. They've gone and done it again tonight. Quite literally, one of their graphs predicting deaths showed the upper tolerance going from today’s number of circa 300 to a number over a thousand tomorrow. It’s just embarrassing and is purely there to scare people. I would very much like them to do a graph using the data they have easily at hand, of all these people who have testested positive ( they have names and addresses ) what percentage have gone on to die or even be hospitalised let alone have no symptoms whatsoever ,,,, unless people wake up and smell the coffee we are ducked , we shut down the whole world and destroy people’s lives and livelihoods,our children’s futures for a virus that 99% of people who contract it survive very nicely thank you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B4ev6is Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 I am so fed up of this first lockdown hard enough and now 2nd lockdown just seem total freaking nightmare that cant wake up from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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