Albert Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 2 hours ago, Andicis said: We are not seeing exponential growth. This is untrue. On cases, hard to tell due to concerns around missed cases. On for hospitalisation and deaths however, yes there is exponential growth. Firstly, hospitalisations: We can demonstrate that this is exponential over this period by using the log plot, and looking at the best fit. If it is linear, it's exponential: So yes, exponential, with a doubling time of 10.7 days. Looking at deaths by date reported (which has some reporting artefacts, which is why it has a weekly repeating pattern): We can also do the log plot for this one: This one is also has a clear linear fit, despite the weekly pattern of reporting, and has a doubling time of 7 days. 2 hours ago, Andicis said: Like you said, excess deaths is all encompassing. Many probably from cancer and suicide due to lockdown and inability to access doctors. Locking down harder is just going to create more than that. Coronavirus deaths are not more important than **everything** else, so we should stop treating it as such. You're advocating for ruining my generation's chances. Cancer deaths aren't from the lockdown, they're from the NHS being overwhelmed due to people insisting against properly controlling the virus. Covid deaths will continue to cause other deaths if this isn't brought under control. 2 hours ago, Andicis said: Jog on. Ah yes, the 33% per capita growth this quarter is shocking. They've bounced back hugely, regardless of how you want to spin it. 33%, adjusted to full year growth, after having fallen far more in the previous quarter. It's a rebound, during a period that things were slightly better, which was about as expected (33% against 31% predicted). The question isn't that though, but what the impacts these choices have through the rest of the year, as their second wave really kicks off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 1 hour ago, alexxxxx said: There is literally no exit strategy. It's got nothing to do with delays. Lockdown for 10months which is how long it will take to eradicate in UK, and a major change to how we manage freight would be needed. We'd have absolutely nothing left, we'd all be out of work and the social cost would be enormous. The government has had some huge failures (not closing borders at all/early enough, initial restrictions too late, sending covid patients to care homes, ppe fiascos, eat out to help outs, encouraging foreign holidays, university first years in halls, confusing rules. Eradication will never happen. If Aus and NZ if they want to stay covid free won't be opening their borders for many years to come. The whole thing continues to ruin everything I enjoy and my lifestyle has been turned upside down. Another year of being single, working from my bedroom (if I still have a job) and watching TV, never able to see friends or family is a poo prospect. Honestly, given how the rest of the World is going, I'm happy for the borders to stay closed in Australia and New Zealand for a long time to come. The travel bubble is up though, and there will likely be other countries added in the coming months. The issue for the UK isn't the lack of an exit strategy though, it's the lack of any strategy at all. The NHS doesn't have the capacity to handle continued exponential growth as we're seeing, so lockdowns were always going to come eventually. The issue is that they're reactive, rather than proactive, so are coming later, with less planning, stimulus, etc. It is a sad state of affairs, no doubt, but to fix the situation, something is going to have to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexxxxx Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 5 hours ago, Eddie said: If the disease is not transmitted, either it or the victim dies. By all accounts, it doesn't remain dormant, nor does it sit around in the environment for weeks waiting for the next victim. Stop the transmission, you stop the pandemic. A full and total 3 week lockdown where the only people working are food workers, transport and utility workers and the emergency services would see a reduction of the contagion to a point where track, trace and isolate would become effective. No mixing of households, no pubs, only food shopping - and everyone wearing masks at all times when outside their own homes. Half measures don't work, because there are always people who think that the rules don't apply to them. A lot of people. I realise that there is not a cat in hell's chance of what I am suggesting as a possible solution to 'get the numbers down' ever coming to pass - but it's how China managed it. I also realise that there is no way that such a drastic 'scorched earth' policy would ever be implemented - or accepted - here, at least for a while. If - and it's a big if - no vaccine is found, and if you can catch this disease repeatedly (the common cold is a coronavirus), kiss goodbye to having a life expectancy of 80+ years. What you're describing is roughly what was occurring in March though and it took more than 10 weeks for the transmission rate to fall. Granted it might be faster second time round with better tests and better masks etc. Same can be seen with Victoria, will take more like 4 months+ than 3 weeks to get to low levels again. Saying that, a full national lockdown seems to be the only way to decrease cases in a meaningful time frame 6 hours ago, jimmyp said: We have to get the r rate down. We need as a nation to be more compliant with social distancing and mask wearing etc. It’s not a normal way of life but it’s much better than kicking the so called can down the road with multiple lockdowns. We also need track and trace to up its game and the government to hand out even more money. Even with social distancing mask wearing etc we will still need circuit breakers, heavier restrictions etc on occasion until we have a vaccine or reach some level of immunity (if it exists on a long enough basis). It is a poo prospect. I’m with you on finding it very hard. Time will eventually be a healer though for most of us. No I agree I'm mostly just ranting because I'm seriously cheesed off at the situation and the damage done to our way of life. There appears to be little acknowledgement from some quarters about how this impacts some people. The rules and lockdown least impacts those who live as a nuclear families in houses with a car and who can wfh. In the stimulus package from the gov, some people got to save tens of thousands in stamp duty, business owners got support through bounceback loan. I got a 0% pay increase, rent increase to pay for somewhere to comfortably work from home and a half price nandos. Maybe I'm just precious but feels like I held up my original end of the bargain by sticking to the rules at great cost but the government have completely failed us on their end and now we pay again with no end in site. 5 hours ago, Albert said: Honestly, given how the rest of the World is going, I'm happy for the borders to stay closed in Australia and New Zealand for a long time to come. The travel bubble is up though, and there will likely be other countries added in the coming months. The issue for the UK isn't the lack of an exit strategy though, it's the lack of any strategy at all. The NHS doesn't have the capacity to handle continued exponential growth as we're seeing, so lockdowns were always going to come eventually. The issue is that they're reactive, rather than proactive, so are coming later, with less planning, stimulus, etc. It is a sad state of affairs, no doubt, but to fix the situation, something is going to have to change. There is no fix or plan. A fix would require a completely different value set to those in governance and a plan would require policies that are aimed at doing more than providing good optics and being popular in focus groups. I'm glad Australia and NZ are doing well although it's grating to see on social media people enjoying parties in Auckland/Wellington. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, alexxxxx said: What you're describing is roughly what was occurring in March though and it took more than 10 weeks for the transmission rate to fall. Granted it might be faster second time round with better tests and better masks etc. Same can be seen with Victoria, will take more like 4 months+ than 3 weeks to get to low levels again. Saying that, a full national lockdown seems to be the only way to decrease cases in a meaningful time frame No I agree I'm mostly just ranting because I'm seriously cheesed off at the situation and the damage done to our way of life. There appears to be little acknowledgement from some quarters about how this impacts some people. The rules and lockdown least impacts those who live as a nuclear families in houses with a car and who can wfh. In the stimulus package from the gov, some people got to save tens of thousands in stamp duty, business owners got support through bounceback loan. I got a 0% pay increase, rent increase to pay for somewhere to comfortably work from home and a half price nandos. Maybe I'm just precious but feels like I held up my original end of the bargain by sticking to the rules at great cost but the government have completely failed us on their end and now we pay again with no end in site. There is no fix or plan. A fix would require a completely different value set to those in governance and a plan would require policies that are aimed at doing more than providing good optics and being popular in focus groups. I'm glad Australia and NZ are doing well although it's grating to see on social media people enjoying parties in Auckland/Wellington. ? Honestly, while it's great to be here in South Australia and all, I find it seriously depressing what is going on elsewhere, and just how little leadership is being shown by countries I hold so dear. Getting past the immediate impact on myself or my family, the damage being done now could take generations to overcome. A clear plan and actual leadership from the start could have avoided all this. Ultimately, lockdowns are an abysmal solution to this problem, but the only one available to reactive governments that never bothered to plan ahead. Their costs do very much get undersold by some, particularly those that are insulated from them. I fully understand why there exists a subculture of people railing against them as an idea, and trying to downplay the pandemic as a whole. They're looking for an easy fix to a problem that has gotten complete and totally out of hand. The problem is, there never was an easy answer to this problem. What's more in all this, the UK's government has been advised for a while that they should have been using firebreak lockdowns to limit the current spread, and get things back under some level of control. Avoiding that has likely condemned the country to Christmas in lockdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexxxxx Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, Albert said: Honestly, while it's great to be here in South Australia and all, I find it seriously depressing what is going on elsewhere, and just how little leadership is being shown by countries I hold so dear. Getting past the immediate impact on myself or my family, the damage being done now could take generations to overcome. A clear plan and actual leadership from the start could have avoided all this. Yeah it's miserable and many/most have it worse than me. The gov are incapable as been shown before 4 minutes ago, Albert said: Ultimately, lockdowns are an abysmal solution to this problem, but the only one available to reactive governments that never bothered to plan ahead. Their costs do very much get undersold by some, particularly those that are insulated from them. I fully understand why there exists a subculture of people railing against them as an idea, and trying to downplay the pandemic as a whole. They're looking for an easy fix to a problem that has gotten complete and totally out of hand. The problem is, there never was an easy answer to this problem. What's more in all this, the UK's government has been advised for a while that they should have been using firebreak lockdowns to limit the current spread, and get things back under some level of control. Avoiding that has likely condemned the country to Christmas in lockdown. Pretty much agree with everything you've said. The government don't believe in what's best they believe in what's easiest to implement and gives good media coverage. Although inexplicably they dropped the ball on the meals issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 1 hour ago, alexxxxx said: Although inexplicably they dropped the ball on the meals issue. New slogan: Starve a kid, save a quid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chester40 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Albert said: Honestly, while it's great to be here in South Australia and all, I find it seriously depressing what is going on elsewhere, and just how little leadership is being shown by countries I hold so dear. Getting past the immediate impact on myself or my family, the damage being done now could take generations to overcome. A clear plan and actual leadership from the start could have avoided all this. Ultimately, lockdowns are an abysmal solution to this problem, but the only one available to reactive governments that never bothered to plan ahead. Their costs do very much get undersold by some, particularly those that are insulated from them. I fully understand why there exists a subculture of people railing against them as an idea, and trying to downplay the pandemic as a whole. They're looking for an easy fix to a problem that has gotten complete and totally out of hand. The problem is, there never was an easy answer to this problem. What's more in all this, the UK's government has been advised for a while that they should have been using firebreak lockdowns to limit the current spread, and get things back under some level of control. Avoiding that has likely condemned the country to Christmas in lockdown. Credit where credits due, a really good post @Albert Although it appears Boris is choosing instead to go for a pre-emptive lockdown so he can open up in time to give us Christmas. Obviously that's what the scientists advised, its not a cynical plan to try and come out of the fiasco with some kind of credit in the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Government leak to The Times that a national lockdown will start on Wednesday. Enough time to let everyone go out and see everyone before they are unable to again and give the infection number a boost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GboroRam Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Couple of like minds I stumbled across. Until everyone - and I mean everyone - takes this pandemic seriously, there will be no respite. I've been saying this since March and no, I don't want a bloody medal or points for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Day Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Nottingham. Tier 3. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexxxxx Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 24 minutes ago, David said: Nottingham. Tier 3. ? Guess buckets of chicken wings count as a substantial meal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angieram Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Read this update from our local hospital. This is why sticking to the rules is so important, even if you think the virus won't affect you directly. Every sensible decision we make now helps prevent deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Day Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Here we go, it’s happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearl Ram Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Bad timing that, second half will just be starting. I know what I’ll be giving my attention to and it won’t be Boris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjam Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 11 minutes ago, Pearl Ram said: Bad timing that, second half will just be starting. I know what I’ll be giving my attention to and it won’t be Boris. I might watch it depending on how bad the first half has gone - watching Boris might be light relief ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gritstone Ram Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Lockdown Wednesday We’re doomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearl Ram Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, Gritstone Ram said: Lockdown Wednesday We’re doomed. Harsh, I think the points deduction is sufficient. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sith Happens Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 1 minute ago, maxjam said: I might watch it depending on how bad the first half has gone - watching Boris might be light relief ? after some of our performances this year it cant be any worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shuff264 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 On a more serious note, ducking kill me if we're doing lockdown again. Its a waste of time if Schools and Universities stay open, which they will. If they wanted to do this it should have been during half term. This is also a ducking stunning failure of their local lockdown system, a system that could have worked but they were always too slow to implement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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