The Politics Thread 2020

[1of4]

The announcement that the government had to borrow 62 billion pounds in April. Not unexpected given the amount thats been needed in sustaining the country during the coronavirus.  The final bill could end up being near to 300 billion. This will be hard for the country to repay with a stable economy, never mind in this period of uncertainty brought about by brexit.

 How much harder is it going to be, if we have no trade deals and have to use WTO. Which is the direction many in the government would like to go.

[ariotofmyown]

3 hours ago, 86 Schmokes & a Pancake said:

Fair play mate. On the question of why they would choose the UK, it's helpful to first understand whether there really is a disproportionate number of immigrants heading to the UK. I had a look at the figures from fullfact.org which is a useful source and found an article dealing with this written around the time of the Brexit refrendum. I've enclosed the link below but some snippets as follows:

• The UK isn’t particularly high up the league table of countries by number of asylum seekers. Last year it had the eighth highest number of new applications in the 28-country EU, or the 17th highest in terms of existing population.  
   
• The International Organisation for Migration carried out over 4,000 interviews with migrants earlier this year. It found that 6% of migrants “interviewed along the Central Mediterranean route” from North Africa to Italy said they intended to reach the UK.
   
• Of those travelling through Hungary and the Balkans, the UK wasn’t a popular enough destination to be singled out in the analysis, which says that most wanted to reach Germany.
   
•  AN IOM study of 473 Iraqis now living in Europe, which asked about intended destination at the time of departure found almost half chose Germany and only a handful the UK. While almost one in three ended up in a different country to that intended, hardly anyone in this study reported a frustrated desire to get to Britain.

Studies pertaining to economic migrants as opposed to aylum seekers (bear in mind that immigrants can be both) indicate that social and economic factors are relevant, less so the availability of benefits, a finding that is at odds with the thinking of some who believe it is the benefits system that draws immigrants to the UK.

I'll allow you to do your own research on whether that is likely, but I can assure you that our welfare state is a long walk from the most generous in the EU which seems to confirm that social and economic factors and the fact that traffickers often give immigrants no choice as to their end-destination, are all more significant factors in where people's end destination. FullFact suggest that where people can choose, factors such as colonial and historical links, the presence of family members, general reputation as a safe country and language are key.

EDIT - Forgot link! https://fullfact.org/immigration/why-do-migrants-and-asylum-seekers-want-come-uk/

 

Great post. People can travel all over Europe more or less on land. There is a concentration trying to cross the channel as it's the easiest route into the UK. But we don't see any of the people who decided to stop in the 1000s of miles between their home country and our green and pleasant land.

[ariotofmyown]

Just now, 1of4 said:

The announcement that the government had to borrow 62 billion pounds in April. Not unexpected given the amount thats been needed in sustaining the country during the coronavirus.  The final bill could end up being near to 300 billion. This will be hard for the country to repay with a stable economy, never mind in this period of uncertainty brought about by brexit.

 How much harder is it going to be, if we have no trade deals and have to use WTO. Which is the direction many in the government would like to go.

Too late mate, that's all been done init?

[EtoileSportiveDeDerby]

11 hours ago, Andicis said:

We'd be an awful country if we didn't bring them safely to land. We should not be okay with anyone drowning in our waters no matter what. I don't want to demonize them either, I can completely understand wanting to move for economic reasons, should I have been in their position I'd likely want to do so the same thing. I just think that with the rules of asylum seeking, that I find it odd that so many would want to leave France and come to Britain. 

Also for what it's worth, I find some of the recent actions of Priti Patel and the Tory's appalling. 

Agree with all that. On the subject of Nasty Patel I sometimes wonder what her parents or grand parents think of her stance on immigration. As a long term settled immigrant myself (like her parents I believe) if one of my kids shared her views my question would be a simple one, do you want to send me back ? Followed by if I hadn't been allowed to stay you would not be here either and see if that makes a difference.

[Chester40]

1 hour ago, 86 Schmokes & a Pancake said:

What do you mean buddy? Are you asking whether immigrants and asylum seekers are being security checked? Also what do you mean by 'beliefs'? 

On the latter query, how would we go about checking people's belief systems? I'm guessing you mean affiliations not 'beliefs' and if so, I can assure you that any individuals are flagged up by any or the security services as being linked to undesirable or terrorist organisations, are soon shown the door. Even then however, the classification of some groups as being terrorist organisations by Western governments and the US and UK specifically, can be a little 'subjective'. Some groups are labelled this way simply because they are at odds with US and UK 'interests' so I'd argue that in this regard, checks may often be overly invasive rather than too lax.

It's also important to understand that most terrorist activity and terrorist cells in the UK are perpetrated by UK nationals and not by individuals who have crossed borders. In this regard, radicalisation of disaffected ethic groups within the UK is a far greater threat to national security than lax border controls.

The very small percentage of individuals who do come to the UK for unsavoury reasons, will generally tend to avoid any scrutiny so we can safely assume the asylum route at least, will not be their preferred methodology. Quite the opposite. They will instead try and breach our borders without any interaction with customs and immigration units. Unfortunately, so will a lot of folk who simply don't believe they will be granted asylum or any form of work visa and it is not straightforward trying to sort the innocent from those who mean us harm. Worse still, this is also true of the asylum process.

Setting aside the 'beliefs' aspect for and to offer 'balance', it is clear that organised criminal gangs have sent groups of affiliated individuals to the UK but then it's not just the UK that is being targeted, far from it. Because of they way these groups fund their activities, once here they are able to stay off-grid because they don't need jobs or benefits. In fact, they avoid anything that creates a footprint as drugs, extortion, and human trafficking are cash businesses. Rather their 'activities' disctate that staying under the radar for as long as possible is mandatory. I'd like to see a greater focus on these groups as despite the protestations of some on here, us lefties really don't want a 'blanket policy' that leaves borders wide open to criminals or terrorists, far from it, but it seems 'softer targets' are very much the government's priority at present. I believe the reasoning behind this strategy is about politics than any real desire to protect the UK public.

This really is a very good post. Wouldn't say I generally agree with you on this thread, but very well said. 

[A Ram for All Seasons]

38 minutes ago, EtoileSportiveDeDerby said:

On the subject of Nasty Patel I sometimes wonder what her parents or grand parents think of her stance on immigration.

I believe her family were colonial administrators for the British Empire in Africa. They looked down their noses at the natives they had to control and tell what to do.

Now she is one of the "Britannia Unchained" group of Tory MPs that includes Kwasi Kwarteng, Dominic Raab, Chris Skidmore and Elizabeth Truss. They complain about the British being among the worst idlers in the world, working the lowest hours, retiring much too early and not being anywhere near as productive as we should be. Whereas Indian children aspire to be doctors or businessmen, the British are more interested in football (COYR) and pop music. Presumably immigrants rank even lower in their estimation.

She sounds pretty much like a typical colonial administrator to me, just like her ancestors.

Kwarteng and Raab also come from immigrant families.

[Norman]

5 hours ago, 86 Schmokes & a Pancake said:

Fair play mate. On the question of why they would choose the UK, it's helpful to first understand whether there really is a disproportionate number of immigrants heading to the UK. I had a look at the figures from fullfact.org which is a useful source and found an article dealing with this written around the time of the Brexit refrendum. I've enclosed the link below but some snippets as follows:

• The UK isn’t particularly high up the league table of countries by number of asylum seekers. Last year it had the eighth highest number of new applications in the 28-country EU, or the 17th highest in terms of existing population.  
   
• The International Organisation for Migration carried out over 4,000 interviews with migrants earlier this year. It found that 6% of migrants “interviewed along the Central Mediterranean route” from North Africa to Italy said they intended to reach the UK.
   
• Of those travelling through Hungary and the Balkans, the UK wasn’t a popular enough destination to be singled out in the analysis, which says that most wanted to reach Germany.
   
•  AN IOM study of 473 Iraqis now living in Europe, which asked about intended destination at the time of departure found almost half chose Germany and only a handful the UK. While almost one in three ended up in a different country to that intended, hardly anyone in this study reported a frustrated desire to get to Britain.

Studies pertaining to economic migrants as opposed to aylum seekers (bear in mind that immigrants can be both) indicate that social and economic factors are relevant, less so the availability of benefits, a finding that is at odds with the thinking of some who believe it is the benefits system that draws immigrants to the UK.

I'll allow you to do your own research on whether that is likely, but I can assure you that our welfare state is a long walk from the most generous in the EU which seems to confirm that social and economic factors and the fact that traffickers often give immigrants no choice as to their end-destination, are all more significant factors in where people's end destination. FullFact suggest that where people can choose, factors such as colonial and historical links, the presence of family members, general reputation as a safe country and language are key.

EDIT - Forgot link! https://fullfact.org/immigration/why-do-migrants-and-asylum-seekers-want-come-uk/

 

Some interesting points. 

But there is a significant amount at the moment of comparatively wealthy Iranians trying to get in via boats and dinghies. 

They come through Serbia via a trade deal. 

They don't have family ties, they don't have a war to flee, they don't have the language skills. 

So why risk your life with a high chance of arrest? 

[cstand]

1 hour ago, 1of4 said:

The announcement that the government had to borrow 62 billion pounds in April. Not unexpected given the amount thats been needed in sustaining the country during the coronavirus.  The final bill could end up being near to 300 billion. This will be hard for the country to repay with a stable economy, never mind in this period of uncertainty brought about by brexit.

 How much harder is it going to be, if we have no trade deals and have to use WTO. Which is the direction many in the government would like to go.

We as a country have been racking up national for debt for years but since the recession of 2008 it’s been more important to argue about the EU, immigration, austerity, NHS, LGBT rights, BAME rights with a 24hr media stoking up the fears of everyone in the country. Tough decisions need to be made, can I see us coming together and agreeing on a financial package to get the national debt under control, hopefully but my gut feeling is no chance.

[TramRam]

3 minutes ago, Norman said:

Some interesting points. 

But there is a significant amount at the moment of comparatively wealthy Iranians trying to get in via boats and dinghies. 

They come through Serbia via a trade deal. 

They don't have family ties, they don't have a war to flee, they don't have the language skills. 

So why risk your life with a high chance of arrest? 

Detained not arrested, The UK will certainly NOT repatriate any Iranian detained in UK waters, As you've posted "comparatively wealthy Iranians" will be seen as a boon to our economy in later years,  Family ties, War to flee, Language skills, I've done a little research today on Iranian immigrants fleeing to the UK, They see the UK as a safe haven to develope legal businesses here, They will have family and language skills already from their business interests/ventures in Iran, Money for the last few years has been moved out of Iran into other countries banking systems, Mostly Arabian Countries, If the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and it's leaders were to have found out or may have already done so with those moving the money...imprisonment or death would follow, Crossing Europe and the Channel would be seen as simple as taking candy from a Child than moving money.

I'll wager that of the alleged 6% sent back...non are Iranians, As G STAR RAM posted "hypocrisy is the norm"

As for A Ram for All Seasons post above, He's smashed the nail on it's head.

[Norman]

5 minutes ago, TramRam said:

Detained not arrested, The UK will certainly NOT repatriate any Iranian detained in UK waters, As you've posted "comparatively wealthy Iranians" will be seen as a boon to our economy in later years,  Family ties, War to flee, Language skills, I've done a little research today on Iranian immigrants fleeing to the UK, They see the UK as a safe haven to develope legal businesses here, They will have family and language skills already from their business interests/ventures in Iran, Money for the last few years has been moved out of Iran into other countries banking systems, Mostly Arabian Countries, If the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and it's leaders were to have found out or may have already done so with those moving the money...imprisonment or death would follow, Crossing Europe and the Channel would be seen as simple as taking candy from a Child than moving money.

I'll wager that of the alleged 6% sent back...non are Iranians, As G STAR RAM posted "hypocrisy is the norm"

As for A Ram for All Seasons post above, He's smashed the nail on it's head.

How can illegal immigrants be a boom to our economy? 

They can't open legal businesses. 

Not sure what you've been reading. 

Either way, economic migrants that aren't fleeing war torn countries. Which is what is protrayed.

If they have the money, skills, language, apply. Legally. 

[TramRam]

44 minutes ago, Norman said:

How can illegal immigrants be a boom to our economy? 

It's boon not boom...

Definition of boon

1 : a timely benefit : blessing

They can't open legal businesses. 

Once they've been given settled status they can and will

Not sure what you've been reading. 

The Internet, As Kevin Costner once said "if you look you will find" in Field of Dreams ?

Either way, economic migrants that aren't fleeing war torn countries. Which is what is protrayed.

If they have the money, skills, language, apply. Legally. 

Maybe you're not aware of the regime in iran, Those that have been supporting this Government maybe through fear would not legally/freely be allowed to leave, As Eddie would put it...under house arrest ?

 

[uttoxram75]

4 hours ago, 1of4 said:

The announcement that the government had to borrow 62 billion pounds in April. Not unexpected given the amount thats been needed in sustaining the country during the coronavirus.  The final bill could end up being near to 300 billion. This will be hard for the country to repay with a stable economy, never mind in this period of uncertainty brought about by brexit.

 How much harder is it going to be, if we have no trade deals and have to use WTO. Which is the direction many in the government would like to go.

It’s not as bad as the headlines suggest according to this chap.

The government actually own a big chunk of the national debt themselves.

 

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2020/05/22/thank-goodness-for-the-governments-ability-to-create-money/

[maxjam]

People smuggling in Channel 'major threat' to UK border, ex-Border Force chief warns.

https://news.sky.com/story/people-smuggling-in-channel-major-threat-to-uk-border-ex-border-force-chief-warns-11992802

[Gritstone Ram]

It’s bloody typical I have watched that Matt Hancock, Raab, Johnson etc on the daily briefings then the day they put on someone worth looking at and I’m outside in the garden.

[G STAR RAM]

43 minutes ago, Van Gritters said:

It’s bloody typical I have watched that Matt Hancock, Raab, Johnson etc on the daily briefings then the day they put on someone worth looking at and I’m outside in the garden.

Was it Michael Gove? ?

[bigbadbob]

11 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

 

3. The Government placing British citizens under house arrest 

Quality

[Rev]

2 hours ago, uttoxram75 said:

It’s not as bad as the headlines suggest according to this chap.

The government actually own a big chunk of the national debt themselves.

 

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2020/05/22/thank-goodness-for-the-governments-ability-to-create-money/

It's spelt so badly and with such poor grammar I can't help but not trust it.

Almost like a Russian bot demanding bank sign in details.

[Rev]

2 hours ago, Van Gritters said:

It’s bloody typical I have watched that Matt Hancock, Raab, Johnson etc on the daily briefings then the day they put on someone worth looking at and I’m outside in the garden.

They've added loss of taste to the official symptoms.

Maybe you should book a test?

[i-Ram]

1 minute ago, reverendo de duivel said:

They've added loss of taste to the official symptoms.

Maybe you should book a test?

Pritti desperate.

[A Ram for All Seasons]

It looks like there might be a job going as political adviser to Boris Johnson some time soon. Anybody fancy applying in these difficult times? I wouldn't hold my breath though.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/22/dominic-cummings-durham-trip-coronavirus-lockdown

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/22/dominic-cummings-coronavirus-and-lockdown-a-timeline