Kernow

Would be nice if we were 3-0 up against Carlisle and he can come on and hopefully grab a goal. At very least, be part of the celebrations at the end.

He looks a decent player, but I wouldn’t want him back next season whether in the Championship or League 1.

His goal at Port Vale could prove invaluable, so he’s contributed, however I would want strikers who can be relied on to contribute more next season, and his injury record just doesn’t allow that.

1 minute ago, 21CSchizoidRam said:

Have you got the detailed spreadsheet analysis that underpins you findings. I wont believe it until you show all!

I’m typing it up now, just on the 1923/24 season currently. Bear with me.

Ethan Erhahon from Lincoln looks a good alternative if we can’t get Adams. Another combative, ball-winning midfielder. I’m not sure if he would be out of our price range, he’s only 22 and has had a decent season for them.

9 minutes ago, ap04 said:

Not sure what your evidence is but I hope you trust mine as I've worked a bit on this.

After 46 games the average percentage of lucky/unlucky games net for a team is precisely 9%. The maximum is over 20% -hard to believe I know. This is based on the standard +2 clear chances aggregate worthy of a win.

The average discrepancy to the chances/goal average is 0.35, the maximum over 1. These can all be positive or negative.

You understand what the above mean in terms of points, goals and league positions at the end of a season.

Here are my stats that I also hope you trust, as I too have worked hard on them.

Teams that accumulate more points than 22 other sides in their division over the period of 46 games get promotion in the English football pyramid 100% of the time.*
 

*Stats based on a sample of over 120 years of competitive football where sides are ranked based on points-based performance.

Some headline. Swap Portsmouth for Derby, and O’Neills for the Neptune, and you’ve got yourself a date in 10 days time.

11 minutes ago, ap04 said:

'Luck' is not the number of goals and wins, it's whether the goals and wins were proportionate to what happened. In fact the luckier we got the bigger our gd and number of wins would be.

Fallacy of the single cause - high gd and number of wins means we were good therefore these were only a result of us being good and luck was not involved.

Not a clue what you’re on about mate, as per usual.

We should be promoted with 90+ points, that can’t be attributed to luck, or scraping it, or whatever. There’s obviously elements of luck in individual games but over the course of 46 games you can’t just fluke it.

That On the Beach advert in the airport lounge, every single one of that family are infuriating.

I think this was at 2-2, that’s worse than Blackett-Taylor’s miss vs Wycombe. You’d feel sick if you were a Bolton fan seeing this.

8 minutes ago, ram59 said:

Yes, he's been doing that all along, now he's writing off Cambridge and Carlisle to get reaction out of them and also making the Derby players think that they've just got to turn up, to get the points.

It’s quite easy to see through, Bolton are a decent side but I really don’t think Evatt is that intelligent a manager to be honest.

Cambridge 1-2 Derby

NML

18 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Well I guess the Prem teams like Chelsea have found out that having a good manager to spend the money is just if not more important. We're down in League 1 because we had points deducted not because we bought bad players or were out played. 

I enjoyed last season more than this, and if this season ends in promotion I'll be glad to get out of this League.

Did you really though? The same manager, I’d argue the football was worse. We ran out of steam far earlier, the players were not as fit. We scored fewer goals, conceded more. We lost more, drew more, won less. Other than the novelty of playing some teams we’ve never played before, or not played for a long time, I don’t see any aspect of last season that was more enjoyable.

6 hours ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

Sounds like Evatts thrown in the towel.  He has played here before hasn't he.

“Frustration is fine and natural tonight but we have to park that and get ready to win five football matches. I appreciate that there's going to be disappointment and frustration. There’ll be nobody more disappointed and frustrated than me.

“We have to re-group right now and get ready for five big games and carry momentum through, get this place rocking on Saturday and make sure we do the business.”

It’ll be a last-gasp attempt at mind games. He obviously won’t be telling his players that, they’ll still believe they can do it.

Really, the only way they get past us now is if we get so over-confident that it’s done, that we don’t go into games at our maximum effort.

It would be a disaster from us to throw it away from here, but I guess Evatt has to do anything he can to influence that.

5 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Glad your happy. 👍

As I replied, yes an achievement. Done with some of the League's best players and best paid players. Oh, well not yet done, so probably scraped in. An achievement though.

Players that were free or unwanted by their previous clubs. Players that are paid what the EFL will allow, not whatever we want. Yes, they are good players for this level and well-paid towards other clubs, but as we know ourselves, more money does not necessarily equal more success.

Just now, G STAR RAM said:

You could add in - most points accumulated in a season, most away wins in a season, best goal difference, but I still think you'd be wasting your time.

Sky TV has somehow managed to programme alot of fans into thinking successful pass completion, higher xG and touches in the opposition penalty area are all more important than the above...

I do wonder how some people actually get into football. What I love most is winning, as long as the only stat we win in is goals scored, then I’m happy. I get the criticism of it, if you don’t play good football then you absolutely have to get the results, because you have nothing to fall back on and people will turn quicker as shown numerous times this season.

But the reason you watch your team is to hopefully see them win, surely? I really don’t see how getting automatic promotion from any league can be twisted into a negative. And like you said, our points are at a record level and will hopefully make it into the 90s. Biggest goal difference, second highest number of wins. You can’t even argue that we’ve got lucky.

9 hours ago, RoyMac5 said:

Lol. Greatest achievement since 2006/7? You think coming second in League 1 playing turgid football is an achievement? Lets debate it.

Nah that's okay, it's not appropriate. 👍

First promotion for 17 years. First automatic promotion for nearly 30 years. Let’s counter your argument and say you think that finishing 3rd, playing good football but failing where it really matters is an achievement?

The arrogant attitude that anything less than running away with the title with triple figure points is a failure is why big clubs like Sunderland, Ipswich, Notts Forest etc got stuck down here for longer.

Less than two years ago we had about 6 players, no academy, no manager and had to play pre-season in temporary shirts because we didn’t even have kits. We were also put under restrictions, which still haven’t run out yet. So yes, I think getting automatic promotion in this timeframe is an achievement. A very good one, actually.

On 13/04/2024 at 20:13, Kernow said:

Automatic promotion odds:

Monday - Derby 2/5, Bolton 9/4, Posh 9/1

Thursday - Derby 4/7, Bolton 7/4, Posh 6/1

This evening - Derby 1/9, Bolton 5/1, Posh 50/1

We're on our way...

This evening - Derby 1/50, Bolton 14/1, Posh 25/1.

We’re really on our way…

The results tonight are setting up an ideal scenario for us, well ideal would be that we're already promoted by now, but ideal in terms of enjoying the final day.

Goal difference in our favour, Peterborough and Bolton both to be 3 points behind us meaning they're both going to have to go for it on the off-chance something remarkable happens, but all we have to do is avoid a 4-0 defeat against Carlisle. Perfect.

Shrews always have been my favourite small mole-like mammals classified in the order Eulipotyphla. 

Why release them if you can’t include the manufacturer? It just looks like you’ve popped into a market in Bodrum with 10 lira spare.

12 hours ago, Millenniumram said:

I’m still of the opinion that if we appointed a different manager we’d have been promoted last season.

In place of who though? To finish in the top 2 we’d have needed 22 more points at least, that’s a big, big swing for another manager to achieve. And it was with a squad assembled by somebody else. You’ve said before “I hate this team”, so clearly the players didn’t have what it took any way?

I’m not Warne’s number 1 fan, I’m not sold that he is the right long term option for us and I’d have been very happy to see him sacked after Stevenage away. But he’s gone on to make us dogged, resilient and efficient.

I can accept people may dislike his playing style or his personality, whatever, but I can’t see how anybody could argue that he’s not done an excellent job - providing we finish the job - given the circumstances.

He’s taken a side who was pieced together under restrictions by a different manager, straight out of administration, and built an ethos and an atmosphere that a lot have clearly bought into. I really don’t think it matters how big a side we are or how many fans we have, to be in this position 20 months after nearly ceasing to exist is a wonderful achievement.

Whether he finishes next season as our manager or not will remain to be seen, but he absolutely deserves the opportunity to take us into the Championship.

51 minutes ago, Millenniumram said:

Sheffield Wednesday last season

Don’t think we bottled that one on the final day. The dive & subsequent penalty/red card took it away from us. I think we actually looked alright in that game and would’ve got the point we needed.

Games like Reading at home are bottling it, but not winning a game and bottling don’t always have to be the same thing.

Cash & Nat in the TOTS

36 minutes ago, Thameram said:

Went to watch this yesterday peterboro were awful oxford could have had 10 

wouldn't want to play oxford in play offs they had brannagan and moore missing as well and looked good 

Oxford are a good side, the blip when their manager changed and a load of injuries at one time with no squad depth just ruined their season.

I think they’ll finish above Barnsley and the semis will end up as Bolton v Barnsley & Peterborough v Oxford.

5 minutes ago, Gabby'sThighs said:

That's Peterborough out of contention then. All eyes on Bolton's midweek game, but they should beat Shrewsbury. 

Could do with them winning their next 3, as long we beat Cambridge obviously.

Our goal difference is 13 better than theirs, so if they go into the final day 3 points behind us, they'll be mathematically in it, but very, very, very unlikely to overtake us. Gives them more impetus to get something off Bolton, which then makes our task against Carlisle easier too.

Peterborough are one of the strangest teams possible. When they're good, they're arguably the best in the league. They must just have the worst mentality ever because getting hammered isn't even that rare of an occasion. They have a good 5/6 players I think would improve us, and would happily see in our side next season even if the Championship. But collectively, they're just odd.