Kernow

22 minutes ago, Dean (hick) Saunders said:

Completed London Marathon in 3h41mins

At least Birmingham fans will have something positive to look back on when they go down.

7 minutes ago, bimmerman said:

Are you sure nobody supported Plymouth simply because they were really really s*** in the 90s?!

That’s also an option, although I didn’t have that excuse for Derby so why should they!

10 hours ago, ThePrisoner said:

In honour of our favourite dearly departed B4... "just tell her you lost your passport and dont go to the airport"

B4 would be more adventurous than that. He’d want that Icelandic dust cloud to halt all air traffic in Europe again.

3 hours ago, maydrakin said:

Anybody under the age of 27/28 has never witnessed an automatic promotion for Derby County.

Quite a sobering thought, really.

That’s the position I am in. I was ‘around’ for the promotion in 96 but too young to remember or appreciate it. And although I’ve technically been to the BBG, too young to appreciate it again.

For those who witnessed previous successes, I have nothing but jealousy. But for people like me, my entire experience of Derby County has been misery, disappointment and heartbreak. Where I grew up, it was all Premier League clubs, nobody even supported the ‘nearest’ professional team because Plymouth was still too far away. I’d go into school on sports days in my Derby County shirt, and get laughed at by those wearing United, Liverpool or Arsenal shirts.

To experience success, an outpouring of joy and probably relief,  at Pride Park, is going to be special.

I’m sure lots of people here have other interests outside of football and Derby County, I don’t really. I’m not really into other sports, for me football & this club is everything. Since Covid really, it’s been hard. From not being able to go to watch, to then being plunged into administration & feeling like we were kind of Death Row waiting for the inevitable was very, very hard.

We’re going to do the job on Saturday and I can’t even begin to imagine how good that’s going to feel. 

Carlisle have been relegated for about 3 weeks. They are bottom of the overall table, bottom of the home table, bottom of the away table. Their form over the last 6 games has them 22nd, so maybe a *slight* improvement.

They’ve conceded 5 more than any other side, although 4 sides have scored fewer than them so perhaps they can be considered sharp shooters.

Peterborough being level with Bolton on the final day would be preferred, although unless they win in midweek by 5 or 6 they’re not really going to have any chance so the impetus is on Bolton.

Away from home against the rest of the top 8 (teams that can still get promoted this season), they’ve scored 4.  They’ve only won one of those games, which against Lincoln before they signed Joe Taylor and hit form. Funnily enough, Carlisle have actually scored more away to promotion hopefuls than Bolton have.

A lot of things that haven’t happened all season are going to have to coincide for us to finish outside the top 2, and if that does happen it’ll be nothing short of the biggest capitulation we’ve ever been involved in.

Over the last 10 games, we’ve won 7 so have proven that we can get things done when we need to and I don’t see it being any different on Saturday, I just have more confidence in this Derby team to have the right mental strength than I have before.

23 minutes ago, Retro_RAM said:

that's not a bad idea, £9 on Bolton and a quid on Peterborough either Derby get promoted or I'm in £594 or £250.

EDIT: Not sure where you got them odds @Kernow from but it's not 66/1 Bolton or 250/1 Peterborough, sadly my masterplan cannot work but let's be honest WE'RE GETTING PROMOTED!!! COYR!

Automatic promotion odds on SkyBet, looks like you may be looking at promotion in general which would include playoffs.

On 16/04/2024 at 22:35, Kernow said:

This evening - Derby 1/50, Bolton 14/1, Posh 25/1.

We’re really on our way…

This evening - Derby 1/500, Bolton 66/1, Posh 250/1.

We’re really really on our way…

Posh given up for some reason. It’s still mathematically possible if they win by a big margin in midweek they still have a slim chance.

GET IN!!!

9 minutes ago, JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta said:

Posh scored. 0-1

Blow for full-time now!

I know Posh have another game in midweek, but going into the final day 3 points clear with 7 or 8 goals better would be lovely.

Just now, DavesaRam said:

Ooohhh NML hits the bar from 30 yards!

Just now, Hoppo said:

NML hits the bar from 25 yards out

Just now, Caerphilly Ram said:

Crossbar from a great NML shot outside the area! 

Ooh NML hits the crossbar from the edge of the box, getting closer and closer.

Today - Costa del Kernow

Next week - Derbados

Change the League Cup to teams that aren't playing in a European competition that season. You qualify for Europe by winning it, so will give more varied winners, more fans a chance to see their team win a trophy, fewer games for the big boys.

I think it's pretty poor that the EFL and all clubs were just ignored, why do the FA think that only PL clubs should decide how it's organised, especially in rounds where PL clubs don't even enter. If there was a vote for Derby to boycott it, I'd support it.

Would be nice if we were 3-0 up against Carlisle and he can come on and hopefully grab a goal. At very least, be part of the celebrations at the end.

He looks a decent player, but I wouldn’t want him back next season whether in the Championship or League 1.

His goal at Port Vale could prove invaluable, so he’s contributed, however I would want strikers who can be relied on to contribute more next season, and his injury record just doesn’t allow that.

1 minute ago, 21CSchizoidRam said:

Have you got the detailed spreadsheet analysis that underpins you findings. I wont believe it until you show all!

I’m typing it up now, just on the 1923/24 season currently. Bear with me.

Ethan Erhahon from Lincoln looks a good alternative if we can’t get Adams. Another combative, ball-winning midfielder. I’m not sure if he would be out of our price range, he’s only 22 and has had a decent season for them.

9 minutes ago, ap04 said:

Not sure what your evidence is but I hope you trust mine as I've worked a bit on this.

After 46 games the average percentage of lucky/unlucky games net for a team is precisely 9%. The maximum is over 20% -hard to believe I know. This is based on the standard +2 clear chances aggregate worthy of a win.

The average discrepancy to the chances/goal average is 0.35, the maximum over 1. These can all be positive or negative.

You understand what the above mean in terms of points, goals and league positions at the end of a season.

Here are my stats that I also hope you trust, as I too have worked hard on them.

Teams that accumulate more points than 22 other sides in their division over the period of 46 games get promotion in the English football pyramid 100% of the time.*
 

*Stats based on a sample of over 120 years of competitive football where sides are ranked based on points-based performance.

Some headline. Swap Portsmouth for Derby, and O’Neills for the Neptune, and you’ve got yourself a date in 10 days time.

11 minutes ago, ap04 said:

'Luck' is not the number of goals and wins, it's whether the goals and wins were proportionate to what happened. In fact the luckier we got the bigger our gd and number of wins would be.

Fallacy of the single cause - high gd and number of wins means we were good therefore these were only a result of us being good and luck was not involved.

Not a clue what you’re on about mate, as per usual.

We should be promoted with 90+ points, that can’t be attributed to luck, or scraping it, or whatever. There’s obviously elements of luck in individual games but over the course of 46 games you can’t just fluke it.

That On the Beach advert in the airport lounge, every single one of that family are infuriating.

I think this was at 2-2, that’s worse than Blackett-Taylor’s miss vs Wycombe. You’d feel sick if you were a Bolton fan seeing this.

8 minutes ago, ram59 said:

Yes, he's been doing that all along, now he's writing off Cambridge and Carlisle to get reaction out of them and also making the Derby players think that they've just got to turn up, to get the points.

It’s quite easy to see through, Bolton are a decent side but I really don’t think Evatt is that intelligent a manager to be honest.

Cambridge 1-2 Derby

NML

18 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Well I guess the Prem teams like Chelsea have found out that having a good manager to spend the money is just if not more important. We're down in League 1 because we had points deducted not because we bought bad players or were out played. 

I enjoyed last season more than this, and if this season ends in promotion I'll be glad to get out of this League.

Did you really though? The same manager, I’d argue the football was worse. We ran out of steam far earlier, the players were not as fit. We scored fewer goals, conceded more. We lost more, drew more, won less. Other than the novelty of playing some teams we’ve never played before, or not played for a long time, I don’t see any aspect of last season that was more enjoyable.

6 hours ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

Sounds like Evatts thrown in the towel.  He has played here before hasn't he.

“Frustration is fine and natural tonight but we have to park that and get ready to win five football matches. I appreciate that there's going to be disappointment and frustration. There’ll be nobody more disappointed and frustrated than me.

“We have to re-group right now and get ready for five big games and carry momentum through, get this place rocking on Saturday and make sure we do the business.”

It’ll be a last-gasp attempt at mind games. He obviously won’t be telling his players that, they’ll still believe they can do it.

Really, the only way they get past us now is if we get so over-confident that it’s done, that we don’t go into games at our maximum effort.

It would be a disaster from us to throw it away from here, but I guess Evatt has to do anything he can to influence that.