Kernow

1 hour ago, TomTom92 said:

If we win our last 3 we’d be unlucky to miss out on 92 points but as things stand our momentum has somewhat stalled.

92 will be enough. Fairly certain that Bolton will see off Shrewsbury and Vale easily, but I really can’t see them getting 6 from Peterborough and Portsmouth. Ideally if they’re going to draw one, it’s Peterborough as it means 3 wins will definitely do it for us.

Even if Bolton do go into the final day ahead of us, it’ll be by 1 point. One criticism I’ve seen a lot from their fans is that they buckle under the pressure of big games, especially away. If Posh also have something to play for, I can’t see Bolton winning away there.

I know no game is guaranteed, but if you’re going to handpick a final game of the season, then at home to 24th would be it. Bolton & Posh will fully expect us to beat Carlisle, so they’re going to know a draw likely won’t be enough. Psychology comes into it a lot more than just what’s on the pitch, I’m not sure if Bolton will cope with that.

Even just looking at Saturday, we play Orient, Bolton have Pompey and Posh have Oxford away. I can’t see all three of us winning. Pompey can win the league and Oxford are trying to hold Lincoln off for the last play-off place. I know we can’t control other teams’ results, but I’d be disappointed if we aren’t having our tea on Saturday with our fate back in our own hands.

I think if we win our final 3 then we will get 2nd, even if that’s not guaranteed now.

Peterborough or Bolton are realistically still going to have to win all their remaining games to finish above us, as I think that’s our last points dropped of the season.

Peterborough are two games in to a run of 7 games in 20 days. They’ve won the two so far, but if they go on to win the next 5 in 17 days then fair play to them.

For Bolton I think the key turning point is going to be Saturday, if they beat Pompey then we may be in trouble. They then have Shrewsbury and Port Vale at home which should be nothing less than 6 points.

I personally see it going in to the final day with Derby 89, Bolton 88, Peterborough 86. If we can’t get promoted before the final game, then having both Bolton & Peterborough within reach of us is better than only having one. If one of the two can’t get automatics, then I wouldn’t be surprised if that side rested a few.

It’s strange because despite how poor tonight was, and despite it no longer being in our hands, it still feels like it is.

9 points from 9, we can do it. I still think we’ll go up.

3 minutes ago, DavesaRam said:

Sadly Portsmouth will have secured 1st place and taken their foot off the gas when they play Bolton, who will therefore take 2nd place!

It should be Portsmouth fighting for 2nd place, not us.

Portsmouth play Bolton in 3 days...

After tonight they can get promoted and win the title if they beat Bolton. If there's ever a time where they shouldn't take their foot off the gas, it's that.

Think we're going to have to hope for a Peterborough-Bolton draw on the final day now.

If Bolton win their last 4, they're up, nothing we can do about it.

If both us and Peterborough win our remaining games, it'll come down to goal difference.

I'm hoping Portsmouth can beat Bolton and if we beat Leyton Orient then it's firmly back in our hands in terms of holding Bolton off, Peterborough are a worry now though.

Just now, SKRam said:

0-1 incoming if we’re lucky 

As the away side, I’d take that!

Wycombe 1-2 Derby

Collins

22 minutes ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

If they beat Portsmouth we'll need to win all 4.

If they lose to Portsmouth they could be 7 points behind us with 3 games to play, and we could wrap up promotion at Cambridge. Wednesday is obviously massive for us, but next Saturday's swing could be pivotal.

5 minutes ago, littleover ram said:

if Pompy beat Bolton next does that guarantee Pompy automatic promotion? So be motivation for them 

A win guarantees their promotion. A draw means that Bolton would have to win their last 3 and Portsmouth lose their last 3 to finish level on points.

A Pompey draw would also mean they need one more point, and Posh have to win all their remaining games to finish level. Posh v Bolton on the final day so obviously they both couldn’t catch Portsmouth.

Realistically, a draw means they’re promoted, just not mathematically. A win will mean they essentially have the title wrapped up too.

1 minute ago, CapeTownRams said:

What’s best for us ..??…. Wycombe winning or losing against Posh in the final ??

Losing after 120 minutes would be good. Tired and demoralised.

Portsmouth just need to avoid defeat at Bolton and they’re essentially up. Hopefully that goes in our favour and we can capitalise at home to Orient. Combine that with a win at Wycombe and I’m hoping we can build a gap of 6 points with 2 to play, but Bolton will still have a game in hand at that point.

All set up to go into the last day 3 points clear where avoiding defeat at home to already relegated Carlisle will see us up, what could go wrong there?

3 minutes ago, one_chop said:

I can see us bloody blowing it again.

That’s a surprise

Some of the keepers out of contract that we might be able to attract if in the Championship show that Joe leaving wouldn't necessarily mean the end of the world.

Marek Rodak
Wes Foderingham
Christian Walton
Liam Kelly

I'd also be tempted to have a punt at Karl Hein, but that's because I have a soft spot for Estonian goalkeepers.

Investment for the billionaire Rams

27 minutes ago, Animal is a Ram said:

Not surprised Warne didn't get a nod, when a good proportion of Derby fans don't think he's up to much... 

I wouldn’t necessarily expect him to be nominated either, but I don’t get why Ferguson has either.

It’s all a bit irrelevant as Mousinho will win it, but still.

56 minutes ago, Leicester Ram said:

Your first season following the Rams is it?

Oh I’m fully expecting the bed to be absolutely caked in s*** before long, don’t worry.

With the fixtures remaining we should really not even have to worry going in to the final day, however I don’t believe we have ever once done things simply and I already know it’ll go down to the last few minutes of the last day.

I’ve put the remaining fixtures through the predictor thing. I think we’ll draw one of our 4, not sure which one, but I’ve put it down as Wycombe. Really we should win all 4, I just don’t think that’ll end up happening. At one stage we drop to 4th, but relying on two Bolton draws, I hope it’ll look something like this.

2 hours ago, Retro_RAM said:

You can see the potential, can't help but feel he's better suited to Championship football, against a higher calibre of player. I think we saw this against Portsmouth last night.

When it becomes a scrappy physical league one dog fight is where we'll lose him a bit.

He'll be fine next season then.

5 minutes ago, Crewton said:

Steve Evans ffs

 

Understand that one, Stevenage are way above where most expected. No idea why Ferguson would get in but not Warne or Evatt.

https://efl.com/news/2024/april/03/efl-awards-2024--shortlists-revealed/
 

Our nominees:

NML - League One POTS

Dajaune Brown - League One Apprentice of the Season.

I’m surprised Ferguson is nominated for manager of the year, and Cashin must play badminton, or some other sport, because I don’t know how he hasn’t got a nomination for young player.

2 minutes ago, TheHomunculusLives said:

It's going to go right to the wire between us and Bolton I think, however we have the points in the bag so I think we're narrow favourites as long as we hold our nerve.

Bookies have us as more than narrow favourites. With SkyBet, we’re 1/3 for automatic promotion, Bolton are 3/1.

The point last night was massive, I think we really have to s*** the bed if we don’t get promoted from this position.

12 minutes ago, TomTom92 said:

Agree with all of this.

If Posh have nothing to play for then Bolton have struck lucky playing a good team at exactly the right time.

Got to hope Bolton don't go on their best run of the season and to be honest if we can't beat Wycombe who will either be hungover or gutted at losing a final with us having a week to prepare then its a bad job. Carlisle is a slam dunk, so just need to win at least one of Leyton Orient or Cambridge.

We should be beating Wycombe no matter what. The idea that it’s a tough place to go is a bit of a myth. They’ve got the 13th best home record in the league and have only lost 1 more away than they have at home.

We should’ve beat Northampton too, so nothing is a given obviously, but they’re in the bottom half for a reason and we have no excuse not to get 3 points.

In reality, you probably couldn’t hope for a more favourable last 4 games. 12 points should be well within reach, anything less than 10 is poor from us.

Big Jon Stead

16 minutes ago, YouRams said:

All if buts maybes granted, but Bolton win their game in hand then win another that we lose there's still a good chance we miss out on autos by 2 points.

Easy to say that both ways, though. Their game in hand is at home to Port Vale, the midweek before the final game of the season. The impact of the game in hand may not even be relevant at that point.

Looking at the games we both have, I’d back us to get at least the same number of points as Bolton, meaning the game in hand vs Port Vale wouldn’t matter, as they could only get to within a point of us.

I think it’ll go down to the last day but if we don’t finish in the top 2 now it’ll be because we’ve messed up somewhere, we’d only have ourselves to blame.

Looking at Bolton’s fixtures, anything less than 10 points from their last 5 is a slip up from them.

Rovers away and Shrewsbury & Vale at home should be 9 points.

They should be able to get 1 point minimum from Portsmouth at home and Peterborough away. After last night, Portsmouth may be happy for a point again. They could go up in the Bolton game, but if they don’t lose then Bolton won’t catch them and they’re as good as up anyway.

If we aren’t already up by the Carlisle game, hopefully Peterborough are 3 points behind us too. If they have any chance of getting top 2, they’ll give Bolton a much harder game than if they’re already confirmed in the play-offs.

That means 10 points should be more than enough for us, or 9 points and hope we can rely on goal difference. Bolton winning the rest of their games would mean 6 wins in a row which they haven’t done all season. They also seem to go missing in “big” games and although they can score a lot, they don’t always follow that up with another good performance.

I’d be surprised if 4 wins are necessary for us to get over the line, but I think if we don’t manage to win 3 of the 4 then it won’t be enough. I think we’ll do it, but only just.

6 minutes ago, alexxxxx said:

Guess next q is do we want Pompey win against Bolton or are we still in title race?

Even if we won tonight, Pompey to beat Bolton all day long!

I really couldn't care less about catching Portsmouth, I guarantee you that come around 14:30 on Saturday 27th April, if we are sitting in 2nd place, not one single part of me will be disappointed we didn't win the league.

Get us up, get us out of this league, 2nd will be perfect thank you.