14 Games - time to take stock

[Van der MoodHoover]

29 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

We've got Oxford, Peterborough, Forest Green, Bristol Rovers, Exeter & Sheffield Wednesday away. I would put an emphasis on maintaining an unbeaten record in those games in particular so we can some confidence in the game away from home in the play-offs. Oxford, Forest Green and Bristol Rovers are all in the bottom seven with regards to home form this season, all have lost more than they've won this season at home. 

Peterborough gives us an opportunity against a team within range of the top 6 to finally get a win. Wednesday will be on the beach by the time we play them and we will likely need to get a win. 

Home form will see us through: Fleetwood, Ipswich, MK Dons, Burton and Portsmouth. You would expect to win at  least 3 of them 5 games - Fleetwood, MK Dons and Burton. They've won 12 and lost 26 combined this season. Portsmouth have lost more than they've won away too. 

It's important we carry some confidence going into the play-offs, hopefully we can get 4th (although unlikely) to get that second leg home game. I'd still hope to see us pick up 24 points from our last 11 games which would see us on 85 points. I think 5th or 6th is most likely. 

Going for >2 points per game after our recent run.....

You're certainly living up to your username mate....?

[Ambitious]

2 minutes ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

Going for >2 points per game after our recent run.....

You're certainly living up to your username mate....?

We've lost three league games this year - Wycombe away (7th), Barnsley away (5th) and Plymouth away (2nd). It's been more than five months since we've lost once to a team outside the top 7. Eight of our last 11 games are against teams outside the top 7 - only one more away from home and that's against a team likely to win the league and be on the beach by the time we play them. 

It's not so much an appraisal of ourselves, but more of an indictment of who we will be coming up against.   

[RoyMac5]

On 09/03/2023 at 00:12, Ambitious said:

We've lost three league games this year - Wycombe away (7th), Barnsley away (5th) and Plymouth away (2nd). It's been more than five months since we've lost once to a team outside the top 7. Eight of our last 11 games are against teams outside the top 7 - only one more away from home and that's against a team likely to win the league and be on the beach by the time we play them. 

It's not so much an appraisal of ourselves, but more of an indictment of who we will be coming up against.   

Plus this:

 

[Millenniumram]

On 08/03/2023 at 15:38, nottingram said:

I know it feels like we play against 12 most weeks but not sure fighting fire with fire is the way to combat it.

In fairness one of those 12 is Collins, so it’s effectively still 11

[Tyler Durden]

4 hours ago, RoyMac5 said:

Plus this:

 

Wouldn't post that on here. It will upset some folks presenting factual data about how our performance stacks up with our peers which doesn't fit in with their narrative. 

[Comrade 86]

5 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

Wouldn't post that on here. It will upset some folks presenting factual data about how our performance stacks up with our peers which doesn't fit in with their narrative. 

Who are 'they' and what's the narrative? You keep saying this again and again but you never actually qualify who you're talking about! ?‍♂️

[plymouthram]

I think the top 6 currently will remain in the top 6, obviously it might end up with the positions being different. Looking at the so called chasing teams, Wycombe and Peterboro. I won't include any others because I feel they are too far behind and have shown a lack of consistency so far this season.

Wycombe= probably the strongest threat, but would have to finish well in their 12 remaining games. Having lost 11 matches so far with 7 defeats being on the road, it's nice to know they still have 7 away games to play. Two outstanding away games being at Ipswich and Portsmouth. Their 5 remaining home games look a little bit easier barring the Barnsley fixture. Only conceded 32 goals which is similar to the Rams (33), but have played one game less. And with a current GD of 15 it's lacking against the current top 6, so they would have to get more points rather than get level on points. Having only scored 47, tells me they don't have much in their fire power to improve their goal difference.

Peterborough=also with 12 remaining games, but 6 home, 6 away. Stand out tough fixtures; Lincoln (a), Derby (h), Shrewsbury (a), Ipswich (h) and Barnsley (a). Already lost 14 games so far and 10 of those away, but they leak goals and have conceded 42 so far.

If I'm wrong and Wycombe or Peterboro pinch a top 6 spot, it will be at the expense of Bolton. Bolton's next 4 fixtures are Ipswich (h), Sheff Weds (a), Plymouth (h) and Exeter (a). If they struggle in them games their last 4 games of the season, they have 3 at home where their form is strong. They are also the lowest scorers in the top 6 having also played more games than all of them.

We have 6 away and 5 at home to play, I feel the next 2 matches we need 6 points to give the squad and fans confidence for holding on to a top 6 finish. After the Ipswich home game we have 3 away matches, Forest Green Rovers, Bristol Rovers and Exeter, we need 7 points at least from them games. I'm predicting that we will finish the season in 4th or 5th position, our opponents in the play-offs could be Bolton, Barnsley or Wycombe. I'm hoping it's Barnsley over 2 legs, my reasons are, they won't beat us convincingly at their place twice in the same season and our home form would see us over the line.

[uttoxram75]

On 08/03/2023 at 23:02, Carl Sagan said:

For this, I suppose more questions I have are:

• Do we need to change anything?

We had our great run, but haven't been able to recover our form since:

• Did we run out of steam?
• Have we been found out?
• Were we a bit lucky?
• Are we being unlucky now?

It seems to me we need a new spark.

• What is going to energize us for the run-in?

Wins breed confidence and probably energy. Maybe we just need the bounce of the ball at Oxford and everything will be OK? But I think it probably needs a bit more of a shakeup.

We need the bounce of the ball or a non EFL briefed referee at Oxford, but we also need that extra bit of spice from the fans at home I think.

Our support is unbelievable, the best in the land imo, but we just need an extra bit of us against them for the run in. 

Lets get that aggressive "We are Derby County and we don't give a fck" attitude for every home game and give the players that little extra  lift when they most need it.

I know some won't agree, but while the refs and EFL are against us, lets make it as hostile as possible to them.

[Tamworthram]

12 hours ago, plymouthram said:

I think the top 6 currently will remain in the top 6, obviously it might end up with the positions being different. Looking at the so called chasing teams, Wycombe and Peterboro. I won't include any others because I feel they are too far behind and have shown a lack of consistency so far this season.

Wycombe= probably the strongest threat, but would have to finish well in their 12 remaining games. Having lost 11 matches so far with 7 defeats being on the road, it's nice to know they still have 7 away games to play. Two outstanding away games being at Ipswich and Portsmouth. Their 5 remaining home games look a little bit easier barring the Barnsley fixture. Only conceded 32 goals which is similar to the Rams (33), but have played one game less. And with a current GD of 15 it's lacking against the current top 6, so they would have to get more points rather than get level on points. Having only scored 47, tells me they don't have much in their fire power to improve their goal difference.

Peterborough=also with 12 remaining games, but 6 home, 6 away. Stand out tough fixtures; Lincoln (a), Derby (h), Shrewsbury (a), Ipswich (h) and Barnsley (a). Already lost 14 games so far and 10 of those away, but they leak goals and have conceded 42 so far.

If I'm wrong and Wycombe or Peterboro pinch a top 6 spot, it will be at the expense of Bolton. Bolton's next 4 fixtures are Ipswich (h), Sheff Weds (a), Plymouth (h) and Exeter (a). If they struggle in them games their last 4 games of the season, they have 3 at home where their form is strong. They are also the lowest scorers in the top 6 having also played more games than all of them.

We have 6 away and 5 at home to play, I feel the next 2 matches we need 6 points to give the squad and fans confidence for holding on to a top 6 finish. After the Ipswich home game we have 3 away matches, Forest Green Rovers, Bristol Rovers and Exeter, we need 7 points at least from them games. I'm predicting that we will finish the season in 4th or 5th position, our opponents in the play-offs could be Bolton, Barnsley or Wycombe. I'm hoping it's Barnsley over 2 legs, my reasons are, they won't beat us convincingly at their place twice in the same season and our home form would see us over the line.

I think 3 wins and a draw from our next 4 away games is doable but a big ask. 
 

Although I think we probably will manage to get over the line, I don’t quite share your confidence and think we’ll finish 6th.

We might have a clearer picture after Tuesday when Peterborough and Wycombe will have played their games in hand.

[Brammie Steve]

On 08/03/2023 at 15:03, sage said:

I agree, awful, he acted like we were still under embargo

Too true!

M Bargo was our worst manager since T Docherty!

 

[May Contain Nuts]

17 hours ago, 86 Hair Islands said:

Who are 'they' and what's the narrative? You keep saying this again and again but you never actually qualify who you're talking about! ?‍♂️

Even if he did, the stats wouldn't really prove much when not all teams have played the same number of games, and there's the fact that we still have Sheff Weds & Ipswich to play again. 

The ppg stats provided there work out to 40, 46, 52, 58 and 102 points over a season ?

 

[Comrade 86]

24 minutes ago, Kokosnuss said:

Even if he did, the stats wouldn't really prove much when not all teams have played the same number of games, and there's the fact that we still have Sheff Weds & Ipswich to play again. 

The ppg stats provided there work out to 40, 46, 52, 58 and 102 points over a season ?

 

He can't. That's the point. One or two question some aspects of Warne's work, especially when games don't go our way, but that's it. Anyone would thing that half the forum is slagging him off the way he carries on. And it's not like he's not got previous himself, is it? ?

Edited March 11, 2023 by 86 Hair Islands

[Carl Sagan]

One down, 13 games go, with 10 to the end of the regular season. We've a 7pt cushion inside the playoffs (though Wycombe have a game in hand) so today's win and the ambulance chaser's loss puts us in a much more secure position for the run-in.

Warne began his experiment with 5 changes, starts for Rooney, Davies, Sibley (and in midfield), Springett and Collins. With Davies coming in, Fozzy switched to left back and Smith moved into midfield. Bird, recovering from injury, came on towards the end. McGoldrick and Knight have minor injuries. 

I thought it was interesting Warne stuck with a back four. That suggests he's committed to that formation with this group of players. We have a choice for RB of Smith, Rooney, Knight and Chester. Then, will Davies become the class defender we know he has been if Warne gives him a run of games there? Or should we revert to Cashin and Fozzy? Who is our most effective LB out of Fozzy, Roberts or Sibley?

It looks as if we will perm 2 from 4 wingers. Did Springett do anything today to earn another start? 

The main lesson from today is that we won a tight game because we played Louie Sibley in his natural position as an attacking midfielder. But we also have Smith, Hourihane, Bird and Knight wanting to play in midfield and there are only 3 places. It seems to me Smith is our best holding midfielder and anchor if playing a 4-3-3. And Sibley has to keep his place for now after his goals. That would leave one of Bird, Hourihane and Knight for the final place. I would play Knight and have him and Sibley as the two attacking, box-to-box options. I expect Warne will always play Hourihane, so is it possible he will move Knight to RB when fit? 

Intrigued to see what the team will be for Fleetwood. Will the boss shuffle the pack again?

[plymouthram]

On 11/03/2023 at 18:50, Carl Sagan said:

One down, 13 games go, with 10 to the end of the regular season. We've a 7pt cushion inside the playoffs (though Wycombe have a game in hand) so today's win and the ambulance chaser's loss puts us in a much more secure position for the run-in.

Warne began his experiment with 5 changes, starts for Rooney, Davies, Sibley (and in midfield), Springett and Collins. With Davies coming in, Fozzy switched to left back and Smith moved into midfield. Bird, recovering from injury, came on towards the end. McGoldrick and Knight have minor injuries. 

I thought it was interesting Warne stuck with a back four. That suggests he's committed to that formation with this group of players. We have a choice for RB of Smith, Rooney, Knight and Chester. Then, will Davies become the class defender we know he has been if Warne gives him a run of games there? Or should we revert to Cashin and Fozzy? Who is our most effective LB out of Fozzy, Roberts or Sibley?

It looks as if we will perm 2 from 4 wingers. Did Springett do anything today to earn another start? 

The main lesson from today is that we won a tight game because we played Louie Sibley in his natural position as an attacking midfielder. But we also have Smith, Hourihane, Bird and Knight wanting to play in midfield and there are only 3 places. It seems to me Smith is our best holding midfielder and anchor if playing a 4-3-3. And Sibley has to keep his place for now after his goals. That would leave one of Bird, Hourihane and Knight for the final place. I would play Knight and have him and Sibley as the two attacking, box-to-box options. I expect Warne will always play Hourihane, so is it possible he will move Knight to RB when fit? 

Intrigued to see what the team will be for Fleetwood. Will the boss shuffle the pack again?

I think Warne will shuffle the pack for the Fleetwood game, it looks like the short term plan against teams in the bottom half. This will keep the players rested and refreshed to go again when called back in to start a match against the tougher teams (Peterboro, Ipswich, Portsmouth and the last match against Sheff Weds before going into the play-offs).

[Crewton]

The shock results for some teams at the weekend (Peterborough losing 0-3 at home to Cheltenham, Wycombe losing at Burton) demonstrate how unpredictable the run in will be. Relegation threatened teams are going to have a go and an easy run in can suddenly look allot tougher. I think therefore if we can continue with our generally strong results against lower half teams, we'll be OK. 6 wins should see us safely in the playoffs (or 5 + 3 draws). 

[jimtastic56]

For our younger fans-Since we dropped into the Championship , we have had 4 goes at the play-offs and failed 4 times. Twice at Wembley. After dropping into the 3rd tier it must be our turn to have a great day out in London.

[Sparkle]

We are playing in the third division - I expect to beat everyone - concerned about no one !

[Carl Sagan]

12 Games to go, 9 in the main season. The picture ever becomes clearer that there are 8 teams in it, divided into a top 4 who are competing for autos, and a "next 4" competing for the final 2 playoff places. And we top this second group, 4pts clear of 7th and 8th and with a sufficiently better goal difference to effectively be 4.5 points clear. So as long as we don't lose half a point a game, we'll be OK. 

Today (home to Fleetwood) was terrible. No one wants that, but I don't mind it as much as some will. If we're going to have a lull, it's way better to have it now than hit the wall with a couple of games to go. I said we were in a time to experiment, needing to work out how to win the playoffs. We have to hold our nerve. Warne tried Curtis Davies back in defense and Louie Sibley as an attacking midfielder and to give Tony Springett game time, for a game and a half, and looks to have stopped that experiment. I will be disappointed if that's the end of the Sibley-in-midfield gambit, with 2 much-needed goals in 135 minutes. And I was disappointed with Warne on Radio Derby claiming he can't play both Knight and Sibley as they play the same position. He's wrong there, and should try better to find a way to play both.

The main thing is to build so we hit top form with, say, 3 games to go of the regular season. That analyst guy was on Radio Derby saying we shouldn't have gone to Cheltenham because it disrupted routine and sleep patterns. But he's wrong. We needed routine disrupting. The season is so relentless, the players needed a breather. Maybe today's defeat was the short-term result of that, but longer-term I think it will bring the lads together and prove to be for the best.

I still think our best team will be if we can have a fit James Chester playing in it, and that moment comes closer. Peterborough next week becomes a "must not lose" game to maintain the gap as games start running out. 

My feeling (but I'll need to watch the full 90 back) is we've learnt:

• Davies is probably no longer the man.
• Springett is probably not good enough.
• Collins should probably only be used as a plan B backup striker if McGoldrick is fit.

The players are tired. Mendez-Laing needs a breather. Cashin probably needs a breather. Fozzy may need a breather. Do we rest them at some point in the next two or three games, or wait until the playoffs are guaranteed and then give them a break?

[RoyMac5]

4 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

And I was disappointed with Warne on Radio Derby claiming he can't play both Knight and Sibley as they play the same position. He's wrong there, and should try better to find a way to play both.

Ah s***, he really said that? I'm starting to panic... ?

Edited March 18, 2023 by RoyMac5