14 Games - time to take stock

[Carl Sagan]

The benefit of last night's loss to Plymouth is that it puts us out of our misery. The automatic places are gone. We need to dust ourselves down and regroup. The focus should be on securing a playoff spot, finding the right team to win the playoffs and ensuring we peak at the end of the season in terms of fitness and form. There are 11 games left in the main season; we hope there will be 3 more.

The table looks as if it has a top 4 from where the autos will be decided, with the remaining 2 places coming from the next 4. Our mini league is Bolton, us, Wycombe and Peterborough. 

We are starting to look tired. Should we bring more rotation to the team now, rather than relying on the same small core? For instance, should we widen the starting group to sometimes include Rooney, Davies, Thommo, Springett? And also Chester with him seemingly close to fitness?

Should we change tack to Warne's preferred 3-5-2 and see if we can make it work for the run-in? Or do we stick with the current formation but have different players in the various positions?

What other changes might we consider, especially considering how poor our record has been against the top teams, who we will eventually need to beat in the playoffs if we're to get promoted? And for anyone who says this season was a free fit and we'll be better next year, remember we lose a whole load of our best players if we don't go up next season - yours is a ridiculous attitude.

When we hoped for automatics, every game was a must win and there was no room for experimentation. Now we have a little breathing space, meaning this is the moment to take stock and find the optimal strategy to secure a place in the playoffs, and then win them.

[MackworthRamIsGod]

Our key is our home form, for whatever reason we just can't cut it away. Oxford away is a tricky game, so for me, would be an ideal time for Warne to rest a couple of the key players, start some fresh legs and hopefully give the key players a few days to recuperate ready for at least the last 10 games. There's nothing to say we can't still get a result Saturday.

We do look knackered, understandably.

The season isn't over by a long stretch.

 

 

[TomTom92]

35 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

The benefit of last night's loss to Plymouth is that it puts us out of our misery. The automatic places are gone. We need to dust ourselves down and regroup. The focus should be on securing a playoff spot, finding the right team to win the playoffs and ensuring we peak at the end of the season in terms of fitness and form. There are 11 games left in the main season; we hope there will be 3 more.

The table looks as if it has a top 4 from where the autos will be decided, with the remaining 2 places coming from the next 4. Our mini league is Bolton, us, Wycombe and Peterborough. 

We are starting to look tired. Should we bring more rotation to the team now, rather than relying on the same small core? For instance, should we widen the starting group to sometimes include Rooney, Davies, Thommo, Springett? And also Chester with him seemingly close to fitness?

Should we change tack to Warne's preferred 3-5-2 and see if we can make it work for the run-in? Or do we stick with the current formation but have different players in the various positions?

What other changes might we consider, especially considering how poor our record has been against the top teams, who we will eventually need to beat in the playoffs if we're to get promoted? And for anyone who says this season was a free fit and we'll be better next year, remember we lose a whole load of our best players if we don't go up next season - yours is a ridiculous attitude.

When we hoped for automatics, every game was a must win and there was no room for experimentation. Now we have a little breathing space, meaning this is the moment to take stock and find the optimal strategy to secure a place in the playoffs, and then win them.

Spot on assessment.

For me we've got 3 options:

A - Continuing with the same formation but start using Sibley, Springett and Thompson.

B - Revert back to 3-5-2 and for me give NML and Barks a rest, maybe use Sibley, Springett or Knight as the wing backs at least for a few matches to see if NML and Barks get a second wind for the last 6 or 7 matches.

C - Play 4-3-3 with Bird or Smith at the base of the 3, then toss up between Hourihane, Thompson, White and Sibley for the other 2 positions with Knight at RB? Knight could also go in the three with Rooney as RB but that depends how much Warne trusts Rooney. 

But don't think we can continue to keep playing the usual suspects and hope they magically get better. 

[Tamworthram]

47 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

The benefit of last night's loss to Plymouth is that it puts us out of our misery. The automatic places are gone. We need to dust ourselves down and regroup. The focus should be on securing a playoff spot, finding the right team to win the playoffs and ensuring we peak at the end of the season in terms of fitness and form. There are 11 games left in the main season; we hope there will be 3 more.

The table looks as if it has a top 4 from where the autos will be decided, with the remaining 2 places coming from the next 4. Our mini league is Bolton, us, Wycombe and Peterborough. 

We are starting to look tired. Should we bring more rotation to the team now, rather than relying on the same small core? For instance, should we widen the starting group to sometimes include Rooney, Davies, Thommo, Springett? And also Chester with him seemingly close to fitness?

Should we change tack to Warne's preferred 3-5-2 and see if we can make it work for the run-in? Or do we stick with the current formation but have different players in the various positions?

What other changes might we consider, especially considering how poor our record has been against the top teams, who we will eventually need to beat in the playoffs if we're to get promoted? And for anyone who says this season was a free fit and we'll be better next year, remember we lose a whole load of our best players if we don't go up next season - yours is a ridiculous attitude.

When we hoped for automatics, every game was a must win and there was no room for experimentation. Now we have a little breathing space, meaning this is the moment to take stock and find the optimal strategy to secure a place in the playoffs, and then win them.

The only point I’d potentially disagree with is your belief that we now have a little breathing space. Wycombe could quite easily be above us by Tuesday night unless we win at Oxford. They play at Burton on Saturday (Wycombe will be looking to win that one I expect) then play their game in hand on Tuesday (away at Bristol). Peterborough also play their game in hand next week away at Burton after playing Cheltenham at home on Saturday. So, once again, very winnable games.

Maybe those of us not going to Oxford should go along and support Burton an Saturday and Tuesday.

I’m afraid there is no let up yet unless we win at Oxford and/or Wycombe and Peterborough both slip up.

[Sparkle]

Defenders who can defend 

midfielders who know their job 

wide players who cause opposition problems 

centre forward who can score goals and a central attacking midfielder who plays behind the centre forward 

that about covers what we need 

as well as subs who make a positive impact ( which has rarely happened) 

[RoyMac5]

27 minutes ago, Sparkle said:

Defenders who can defend 

midfielders who know their job 

wide players who cause opposition problems 

centre forward who can score goals and a central attacking midfielder who plays behind the centre forward 

that about covers what we need 

as well as subs who make a positive impact ( which has rarely happened) 

I expected us to sign them in January, what was Warne doing?

[sage]

46 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

I expected us to sign them in January, what was Warne doing?

I agree, awful, he acted like we were still under embargo

[IslandExile]

Don't like 3/5 at the back.

I'd prefer Rooney back in at right back, Smith into midfield in place of White, until Bird is fit again.

Other than that, rotate as necessary to keep everyone fresh. Or simply train less. Players prefer games to training.

[sage]

The good news is we don't have any midweek games for a month. 

It's the wingers that need most rest, so maybe 1 game with Knight and Sibley at wing backs would give them a 2 week rest, which may be enough for them to last the season.

If Bird was back at Posh away

                                                  Wildsmith

                      Rooney                 Forsyth            Cashin

Knight                                            Bird                                 Sibley

                           White                                    Hourihane

                                                McGoldrick

                               Collins                                 Dobbin

Then maybe this could work. It would also rest Smith

Edited March 8, 2023 by sage

[Ramarena]

We've played 46 games so far this season including the cups, we've got a small squad and I think we've used the least amount of players in the division.

We're going have some tired legs and minds..........it's inevitable!

We can start bringing in the fringe players to lighten the load, but the quality and experience drops off rapidly the deeper into the squad you go. 

We can try to play a more possession based style, to try and compensate for the tired legs. But I'm not sure it would work particularly well, given we aren't that good at possession football and games in this division are a million miles an hour wars of attrition, we would still potentially get overpowered and overrun as we drop deeper and deeper.

I don't think there are many options to significantly improve our lot. We can make minor tactical alterations, like playing Smith in midfield till Bird returns, or swapping Collins (who is badly out of form) in for McG, to save McG's legs for games we think we can win/home games, but at the risk of dropping points.  

It's a tough call and the manager is probably onto a loser whatever he picks. Sad to say, but I think we've just run out of road at the wrong time, mix that in with Bird's injury destabilising our weakest and most important area......midfield and you have a tough set of obstacles to overcome.

[nottingram]

17 minutes ago, sage said:

The good news is we don't have any midweek games for a month. 

It's the wingers that need most rest, so maybe 1 game with Knight and Sibley at wing backs would give them a 2 week rest, which may be enough for them to last the season.

If Bird was back at Posh away

                                                  Wildsmith

                      Rooney                 Forsyth            Cashin

Knight                                            Bird                                 Sibley

                           White                                    Hourihane

                                                McGoldrick

                               Collins                                 Dobbin

Then maybe this could work. It would also rest Smith

I know it feels like we play against 12 most weeks but not sure fighting fire with fire is the way to combat it.

[Rambalin]

26 minutes ago, sage said:

If Bird was back at Posh away

Game possibly be postponed due to international call up

[Sparkle]

2 hours ago, RoyMac5 said:

I expected us to sign them in January, what was Warne doing?

We do have them it’s just that we don’t always pick them

[sage]

53 minutes ago, nottingram said:

I know it feels like we play against 12 most weeks but not sure fighting fire with fire is the way to combat it.

sssshhh

[sage]

1 hour ago, sage said:

The good news is we don't have any midweek games for a month. 

It's the wingers that need most rest, so maybe 1 game with Knight and Sibley at wing backs would give them a 2 week rest, which may be enough for them to last the season.

If Bird was back at Posh away

                                                  Wildsmith

                      Rooney                 Forsyth            Cashin

Knight                                            Bird                                 Sibley

                           White                                    Hourihane

                                              

                               Collins                                 McGoldrick

Then maybe this could work. It would also rest Smith

 

[sage]

42 minutes ago, Rambalin said:

Game possibly be postponed due to international call up

oh yes, forgot about that, that could do the job for us

[ram59]

45 minutes ago, Rambalin said:

Game possibly be postponed due to international call up

Peterborough tickets have just been released, I wonder if the club have been given an early indication that less than 3 players are likely to be called up.

[Rambalin]

31 minutes ago, ram59 said:

Peterborough tickets have just been released, I wonder if the club have been given an early indication that less than 3 players are likely to be called up.

U21 call ups count has well.....best hope it is not less than three has the two would be Cashin and Knight.

[Carl Sagan]

For this, I suppose more questions I have are:

• Do we need to change anything?
  

We had our great run, but haven't been able to recover our form since:

• Did we run out of steam?
• Have we been found out?
• Were we a bit lucky?
• Are we being unlucky now?

It seems to me we need a new spark.

• What is going to energize us for the run-in?

Wins breed confidence and probably energy. Maybe we just need the bounce of the ball at Oxford and everything will be OK? But I think it probably needs a bit more of a shakeup.

[Ambitious]

We've got Oxford, Peterborough, Forest Green, Bristol Rovers, Exeter & Sheffield Wednesday away. I would put an emphasis on maintaining an unbeaten record in those games in particular so we can some confidence in the game away from home in the play-offs. Oxford, Forest Green and Bristol Rovers are all in the bottom seven with regards to home form this season, all have lost more than they've won this season at home. 

Peterborough gives us an opportunity against a team within range of the top 6 to finally get a win. Wednesday will be on the beach by the time we play them and we will likely need to get a win. 

Home form will see us through: Fleetwood, Ipswich, MK Dons, Burton and Portsmouth. You would expect to win at  least 3 of them 5 games - Fleetwood, MK Dons and Burton. They've won 12 and lost 26 combined this season. Portsmouth have lost more than they've won away too. 

It's important we carry some confidence going into the play-offs, hopefully we can get 4th (although unlikely) to get that second leg home game. I'd still hope to see us pick up 24 points from our last 11 games which would see us on 85 points. I think 5th or 6th is most likely.