Do we really know what restrictions we are under ?

[Ghost of Clough]

19 minutes ago, i-Ram said:

I would be a little surprised if after the Administration restructure if the Club were to be losing between £5-10m p.a. I am not doubting your figures, you seem to be on the ball, but nonetheless I would be surprised. Transfer payments for Jozwiak and Bielik are cash transactions, and have no impact on profits if their book value was reduced/amortised in the restructure to reflect their realistic value back in the summer.

A wider concern ought to be Clowes Developments. Going to be a tough year or two for building contractors, especially those in the new build residential market. They seem a well managed, and well capitalised, operation but notwithstanding much management focus will need to be applied to keep them profitable whilst the FTB sector take a rain check. 

Cash is king and I interpreted the Ops questions as being in reference to cash, rather than accounting losses. As it happens, there would be very little difference between the two for Bielik. Jozwiak sold for £2m and that would have matched his book value. 

I actually forgot about the £2m income from the Jozwiak sale in the earlier calculation. That would have made it a £7.6m cash loss, vs a £7.1m accounting loss. 

You could make up a figure for Warne's compensation, Buchanan's compensation, extra revenue due to cup competitions, etc... But i'll be surprised if we do fall outside of the £5-10m range at this point. 

[ram59]

I would be extremely surprised if the permitted business plan allowed us to lose anything like the £5-£10m range suggested. The maximum £20m loss over 2 years would be a sure way of leading to another administration, unless DC gave some kind of financial guarantee.

Whatever the agreed plan was, it is certain that the club's actual income far exceeds any conservative projection made before the club was bought by DC. Without knowing the exact figures, it is hard to put a figure on this excess, but I would think that it is not unreasonable to say that the club is heading for in excess of £3m over and above the projected plan, over the season.

Even if the club is not allowed to increase the annual spend on wages, it should be allowed some dispensation to make some one-off capital purchases, in the form of transfer fees or loan fees, paid up front. Afterall, a £300k transfer fee paid up front for a good young lg2 player won't cost the club any more money after the fee is paid, but will potentially show a profit when the player is sold on. The current business plan makes it difficult to sign players which will add value, during the January window.

[Eatonram]

19 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Revenue for the season won't be too far off £20m.

Operating costs will be at least £15m (peaked at over £40m in 17/18) and wages wony be too far off £10m. We're already at a £5m loss. 

Then there are transfer payments (£2.5m for Jozwiak, and about £2m for Bielik this season). Now up to £9.5m.

What is included in "operating costs" if not the wages of staff?

[jimtastic56]

6 hours ago, ram59 said:

I would be extremely surprised if the permitted business plan allowed us to lose anything like the £5-£10m range suggested. The maximum £20m loss over 2 years would be a sure way of leading to another administration, unless DC gave some kind of financial guarantee.

Whatever the agreed plan was, it is certain that the club's actual income far exceeds any conservative projection made before the club was bought by DC. Without knowing the exact figures, it is hard to put a figure on this excess, but I would think that it is not unreasonable to say that the club is heading for in excess of £3m over and above the projected plan, over the season.

Even if the club is not allowed to increase the annual spend on wages, it should be allowed some dispensation to make some one-off capital purchases, in the form of transfer fees or loan fees, paid up front. Afterall, a £300k transfer fee paid up front for a good young lg2 player won't cost the club any more money after the fee is paid, but will potentially show a profit when the player is sold on. The current business plan makes it difficult to sign players which will add value, during the January window.

£780k T V money doesn’t go far . A ridiculous amount when you see the £Billions slushing around in football. I also dread to think what our utility bills will be this season.

[jono]

I’d like to think in trading terms we are breaking even. Yes there will be that old chestnut “exceptional items” I.e Bielik but to be sustainable surely that’s where we should be regardless of an agreed business plan ? 

[Ghost of Clough]

6 hours ago, Eatonram said:

What is included in "operating costs" if not the wages of staff?

Some of the costs are: utility bills, policing, stewarding, stadium and training ground security, match day paramedics, stadium maintenance and stadium cleaning

[plymouthram]

Looking at other big clubs in League One, at their recent accounts. They all made losses ranging between £3m and £5m, the exception being Sheffield Wednesday who are losing a lot more. Now the difference between the Rams and these other clubs is our revenue from our home attendances, also the fact we can't buy in players on transfer windows. So I can't see us making any major losses this season and surely the business plan drawn up and agreed by the EFL and our new owners would see us coming out in the black or around breaking even.

[QuitYourJibbaJivin]

6 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Some of the costs are: utility bills, policing, stewarding, stadium and training ground security, match day paramedics, stadium maintenance and stadium cleaning

Are the club and ground whole again or are they still 2 different entities? If they are separate surely that will exclude some of the costs mentioned above from the club.

[Brammie Steve]

'Tis the season to:-

restart the dreaded admin thread!

To depress all genuine Rams fans

Despite:-

Losing the habit of losing and

Being in the playoff positions

As we reach the half-time point!

''Tis the season to be jolly

Jesus is the reason for the season!

Merry Christmas Everyone!

 

         v v          

[Anag Ram]

A ray of hope flickers in the sky
A tiny star lights up way up high
All across the land, dawns a brand new morn
This comes to pass when our boss is Warne.

[Raich Carter]

On 18/12/2022 at 21:14, jono said:

Something is fundamentally wrong when a skilled man might earn £ 1,200,000 in a 40 year lifetimes work, but a 3rd tier footballer can earn that in 3 years. … I am not discussing entrepreneurs in business or premier league super stars (that’s a huge can of worms ) .. Just the ordinary, competent, hard working individuals that populate the lower leagues. Deserving of a good pay cheque for sure, but … £ 500,000 per year from businesses that make huge losses on a regular basis ? 

Ordinary, competent, hard working individuals - that happen to be in the top, say, 1000 best athletes at their sport in the country. I'm not saying it's right but they're still top athletes in a team sport that has a lot of money swirling around.

Of course, I agree that the money distribution within the sport is obscene but that's a cultural thing - as consumers, we spend and they earn. Simple as that.

Fundamentally, the £££ jump from EFL to Premiership is so, so big and appealing that many clubs are/were gambling - putting millions on black/red in the hope to make many more. And that's still true if we really are paying £500k pa in wages for a player in League 1 - obviously unsustainable but it's a smaller bet than Mel made... That guy went big... and then went home.

Equally, it's a gamble to invest in youth - I'd say it's been pretty much a disaster (vs investment) in that we lost the likes of Delap and Kaide Gordon for pennies when clearly we were aiming to get big money for those types of highly promising youngsters that would cover the costs of the Academy, supply the first team AND generate funds for first-team signings. That was the vision and it didn't pan out. 

Don't get me wrong - the likes of Bird, Knight, Sibs, etc are fantastic but I don't think they're quite at the level that was envisioned. There's a reason they're still here and Delap isn't. However, the silver lining is that we have a number of decent L1/Champ level players from the Academy which is probably the only saving grace of the MM era. 

It's all a gamble... or a calculated risk depending on your perspective.

[Caerphilly Ram]

1 hour ago, QuitYourJibbaJivin said:

Are the club and ground whole again or are they still 2 different entities? If they are separate surely that will exclude some of the costs mentioned above from the club.

Whole again….I think…. Mr Clowes purchased both so am assuming he returned the stadium to club ownership rather than his own

[Ghost of Clough]

9 hours ago, plymouthram said:

Looking at other big clubs in League One, at their recent accounts. They all made losses ranging between £3m and £5m, the exception being Sheffield Wednesday who are losing a lot more. Now the difference between the Rams and these other clubs is our revenue from our home attendances, also the fact we can't buy in players on transfer windows. So I can't see us making any major losses this season and surely the business plan drawn up and agreed by the EFL and our new owners would see us coming out in the black or around breaking even.

Our operating costs will still be higher than most clubs in this league. It costs more to maintain, clean, police, etc... 30k fans than it does 5k fans.

We may not have paid fees for players this season, but we will have made payments for them (Jozwiak and Bielik).

You mention SWFC, but their last set of accounts was when still in the Championship during the Covid hit season. If not for Covid, they would have lost about £16m that season on a £24m wage bill.

3 hours ago, QuitYourJibbaJivin said:

Are the club and ground whole again or are they still 2 different entities? If they are separate surely that will exclude some of the costs mentioned above from the club.

I believe they're still separate entities. However, the lease contact will certainly be one which results in the club paying for all costs and receiving all revenue.

[QuitYourJibbaJivin]

3 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

 

I believe they're still separate entities. However, the lease contact will certainly be one which results in the club paying for all costs and receiving all revenue.

I thought that was still the case. Any reason why he would keep them separate? Surprised it’s not been spoke about a bit more to be fair seeing the separation has caused so many issues. Plus it would be excellent PR to make a bold statement on how the ground is finally back in control of the club.

[jono]

2 hours ago, Raich Carter said:

Ordinary, competent, hard working individuals - that happen to be in the top, say, 1000 best athletes at their sport in the country. I'm not saying it's right but they're still top athletes in a team sport that has a lot of money swirling around.

Of course, I agree that the money distribution within the sport is obscene but that's a cultural thing - as consumers, we spend and they earn. Simple as that.

Fundamentally, the £££ jump from EFL to Premiership is so, so big and appealing that many clubs are/were gambling - putting millions on black/red in the hope to make many more. And that's still true if we really are paying £500k pa in wages for a player in League 1 - obviously unsustainable but it's a smaller bet than Mel made... That guy went big... and then went home.

Equally, it's a gamble to invest in youth - I'd say it's been pretty much a disaster (vs investment) in that we lost the likes of Delap and Kaide Gordon for pennies when clearly we were aiming to get big money for those types of highly promising youngsters that would cover the costs of the Academy, supply the first team AND generate funds for first-team signings. That was the vision and it didn't pan out. 

Don't get me wrong - the likes of Bird, Knight, Sibs, etc are fantastic but I don't think they're quite at the level that was envisioned. There's a reason they're still here and Delap isn't. However, the silver lining is that we have a number of decent L1/Champ level players from the Academy which is probably the only saving grace of the MM era. 

It's all a gamble... or a calculated risk depending on your perspective.

Of course you’re right and in the end it is a market place but the gamble, by the time you get to the bottom end of the championship and then league one, is a bit skewed. When you bet your house on a 100:1 outsider it might still be gambling but it’s ill considered in any language. We absolutely must get tougher with the wages/turnover rules.

[Simmo’s left foot]

I'd suspect the business plan agreed with the EFL would aim to run the club with a modest operating surplus, and given the fact that DC has stated we are within that plan, then I expect the club to be not running at a loss, perhaps the outstanding liabilities on player fees for Bielek will push us into a loss, but the new owner guaranteeing those payments.

I doubt DC will be allowing us to be running in negative cash flow. He is far too sensible to do that. However he wont be going mad in the future either.

[Ram@Lincoln]

12 minutes ago, Simmo’s left foot said:

I'd suspect the business plan agreed with the EFL would aim to run the club with a modest operating surplus, and given the fact that DC has stated we are within that plan, then I expect the club to be not running at a loss, perhaps the outstanding liabilities on player fees for Bielek will push us into a loss, but the new owner guaranteeing those payments.

I doubt DC will be allowing us to be running in negative cash flow. He is far too sensible to do that. However he wont be going mad in the future either.

100% on Mr Clowes here, from speaking to friends who either work or have worked with him. The Clowes family always run their businesses properly and sensibly. We wont see any mad decisions, everything will be done logically with a sound background and reason behind it. They are old school with their ways and methods but this has enabled an incredibly successful business to develop over the years, with no doubting on the balance sheets or stakeholders. We are in very good hands for sure.

[Ghost of Clough]

Some people still don't believe we'll be running at a loss this season, so I'll show you the numbers. The cash profit/losses will be fairly similar to the accounting profit/losses, so I'll stick to the accounting losses in this example.

Revenue
Our highest recorded revenue was about £30m (most likely higher in seasons where accounts weren't actually posted though). We're now in L1, which comes with reduced TV money. We'll also see a reduction in sponsorship income (lower league = smaller captive audience, and no shirt sponsor money).
Revenue = £20m.

Costs
Wage bill = £10m
Manager compensation, amortisation, profit on player sales = £5m
Other operating costs = £4m (utilities, maintenance, cleaning, policing, stewarding, etc)
Admin expenses = £8m (lowest since 14/15)
Total costs = £27m

Loss = £7m

[Wolfie]

12 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Some people still don't believe we'll be running at a loss this season, so I'll show you the numbers. The cash profit/losses will be fairly similar to the accounting profit/losses, so I'll stick to the accounting losses in this example.

Revenue
Our highest recorded revenue was about £30m (most likely higher in seasons where accounts weren't actually posted though). We're now in L1, which comes with reduced TV money. We'll also see a reduction in sponsorship income (lower league = smaller captive audience, and no shirt sponsor money).
Revenue = £20m.

Costs
Wage bill = £10m
Manager compensation, amortisation, profit on player sales = £5m
Other operating costs = £4m (utilities, maintenance, cleaning, policing, stewarding, etc)
Admin expenses = £8m (lowest since 14/15)
Total costs = £27m

Loss = £7m

Well that's depressing if true.

[Tamworthram]

16 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Some people still don't believe we'll be running at a loss this season, so I'll show you the numbers. The cash profit/losses will be fairly similar to the accounting profit/losses, so I'll stick to the accounting losses in this example.

Revenue
Our highest recorded revenue was about £30m (most likely higher in seasons where accounts weren't actually posted though). We're now in L1, which comes with reduced TV money. We'll also see a reduction in sponsorship income (lower league = smaller captive audience, and no shirt sponsor money).
Revenue = £20m.

Costs
Wage bill = £10m
Manager compensation, amortisation, profit on player sales = £5m
Other operating costs = £4m (utilities, maintenance, cleaning, policing, stewarding, etc)
Admin expenses = £8m (lowest since 14/15)
Total costs = £27m

Loss = £7m