Do we really know what restrictions we are under ?

[jono]

13 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Some people still don't believe we'll be running at a loss this season, so I'll show you the numbers. The cash profit/losses will be fairly similar to the accounting profit/losses, so I'll stick to the accounting losses in this example.

Revenue
Our highest recorded revenue was about £30m (most likely higher in seasons where accounts weren't actually posted though). We're now in L1, which comes with reduced TV money. We'll also see a reduction in sponsorship income (lower league = smaller captive audience, and no shirt sponsor money).
Revenue = £20m.

Costs
Wage bill = £10m
Manager compensation, amortisation, profit on player sales = £5m
Other operating costs = £4m (utilities, maintenance, cleaning, policing, stewarding, etc)
Admin expenses = £8m (lowest since 14/15)
Total costs = £27m

Loss = £7m

Not sure what you mean with profit on player sales being a cost ? Is that a book loss on players we had to sell ?

I don’t see how that works with what is a new financial entity ? I get the compensation thing, that was all post takeover but the rest happened before. Not arguing just wondering 

I feel fairly sure that while we may be showing a loss in terms of paper and accountancy practices, I suspect the cash going in and out of the business on a daily basis isn’t negative, what your feeling on that ?

[Tamworthram]

52 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Some people still don't believe we'll be running at a loss this season, so I'll show you the numbers. The cash profit/losses will be fairly similar to the accounting profit/losses, so I'll stick to the accounting losses in this example.

Revenue
Our highest recorded revenue was about £30m (most likely higher in seasons where accounts weren't actually posted though). We're now in L1, which comes with reduced TV money. We'll also see a reduction in sponsorship income (lower league = smaller captive audience, and no shirt sponsor money).
Revenue = £20m.

Costs
Wage bill = £10m
Manager compensation, amortisation, profit on player sales = £5m
Other operating costs = £4m (utilities, maintenance, cleaning, policing, stewarding, etc)
Admin expenses = £8m (lowest since 14/15)
Total costs = £27m

Loss = £7m

I’m not in any position to doubt your figures so this is a genuine question. Are you suggesting we are already in breach of the business plan agreed with the EFL or that the plan allowed for such losses which the owner would have to cover?

Unless I’m miss understanding something, it seems to me that one of these unlikely scenarios must be true.

[Ghost of Clough]

26 minutes ago, jono said:

Not sure what you mean with profit on player sales being a cost ? Is that a book loss on players we had to sell ?

I don’t see how that works with what is a new financial entity ? I get the compensation thing, that was all post takeover but the rest happened before. Not arguing just wondering 

I feel fairly sure that while we may be showing a loss in terms of paper and accountancy practices, I suspect the cash going in and out of the business on a daily basis isn’t negative, what your feeling on that ?

It's the net profit on player sales, which can still be a loss. This is the difference between their remaining book value and the fee sold for.

The only player this is for is Jozwiak. The awkward bit with Jozwiak, is that the admins thought they could class the outstanding sum wouldn't be classed as a footballing debt. So despite us selling him in 21/22, there will be some adjustment in 22/23 to cater for the admins' mistake. 

Everything from the old company transferred to the new one. When transferring player registrations over, they would have still had an assigned book value. This still needs to be amortised. Furniture and other equipment likewise but depreciated instead.

Cash losses and accounting losses won't be too dissimilar. We still had to pay for Jozwiak, and we still have payments to make for Bielik.

[Ghost of Clough]

1 minute ago, Tamworthram said:

I’m not in any position to doubt your figures so this is a genuine question. Are you suggesting we are already in breach of the business plan agreed with the EFL or that the plan allowed for such losses which the owner would have to cover?

Unless I’m miss understanding something, it seems to me that one of these unlikely scenarios must be true.

The business plan would have allowed the club to make losses.

[ilkleyram]

2 hours ago, QuitYourJibbaJivin said:

I thought that was still the case. Any reason why he would keep them separate? Surprised it’s not been spoke about a bit more to be fair seeing the separation has caused so many issues. Plus it would be excellent PR to make a bold statement on how the ground is finally back in control of the club.

might it be that they're separate entities because of who bought them? 

The ground (and Moor Farm lease) is (I think) owned and paid for by the Clowes property business.  If you were a director of that business then you would see the logic of approving that purchase of £20m or so - it's a property deal that you could potentially invest in and then sell on at some stage. Or not as the case may be

But you would question the logic of the property company owning, running and investing in a football club.  So (I think) that the football club, which is not the same thing as the ground/moor farm, was bought by a company run/funded by Clowes himself rather than his property company.

That keeps the two entities separate albeit intrinsically connected, and in a similar company structure to that which Mel had, and probably very sensible in the current circumstances.

Unless that's complete rubbish of course, which no doubt someone will confirm either way.

[ram59]

57 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Some people still don't believe we'll be running at a loss this season, so I'll show you the numbers. The cash profit/losses will be fairly similar to the accounting profit/losses, so I'll stick to the accounting losses in this example.

Revenue
Our highest recorded revenue was about £30m (most likely higher in seasons where accounts weren't actually posted though). We're now in L1, which comes with reduced TV money. We'll also see a reduction in sponsorship income (lower league = smaller captive audience, and no shirt sponsor money).
Revenue = £20m.

Costs
Wage bill = £10m
Manager compensation, amortisation, profit on player sales = £5m
Other operating costs = £4m (utilities, maintenance, cleaning, policing, stewarding, etc)
Admin expenses = £8m (lowest since 14/15)
Total costs = £27m

Loss = £7m

You've stated that you'll show us the numbers, they're actually your numbers, based on your assumptions, unless you have inside knowledge of the running of the club. I would probably agree with your revenue figures, but your costs are based on many variables. 

The player wage bill has been massively slashed, we are led to believe that new contracts are around £4-£5k per week equating to a squad cost of around £100k per week or £5m per year. Even allowing for the original 5 players being on higher figures and the youngsters wages, I think that £10m could be a couple of million high. I wouldn't think that Warne and his team were on massive contracts at Rotherham, so compensation wouldn't be at Lampard levels. Amortisation is awkward figure to add to the costs in a situation where the club has been bought out. I would think that admin expenses have also been cut back.

As I have previously stated the club's income is a lot more than would have been conservatively estimated at the time of the take over. TV money from the FA Cup games and gate money from Anfield would amount to around £500k. Added to this figure is the extra gate money coming in. It would be fair to assume that the conservative business plan would have been based on crowds averaging around 17-18,000 and our actual figures are about 10,000 higher. Most of these 10,000 are non season ticket sales and are full adults, who pay £21 in the mid priced seats for the lowest category games. That would equate to around £200k extra per match or £4.6m per season, even taking out extra costs and some cheaper tickets, this figure is still likely to be in excess of £3m and when you add on the £500k from the cups, we're looking at £3.5m above the business plan.

If, after being £3.5m better off and still losing £7m, are you saying that the EFL accepted a business plan expecting us to lose over £10m per season? 

[Ghost of Clough]

8 minutes ago, ram59 said:

You've stated that you'll show us the numbers, they're actually your numbers, based on your assumptions, unless you have inside knowledge of the running of the club. I would probably agree with your revenue figures, but your costs are based on many variables. 

My assumptions equate to our lowest operating costs since 2006 and our lowest admin expenses since 2014. All of this despite our annual utility costs jumping £1m since our last set of accounts were released too. If anything, I will have under-estimated the costs.

8 minutes ago, ram59 said:

The player wage bill has been massively slashed, we are led to believe that new contracts are around £4-£5k per week equating to a squad cost of around £100k per week or £5m per year. Even allowing for the original 5 players being on higher figures and the youngsters wages, I think that £10m could be a couple of million high. I wouldn't think that Warne and his team were on massive contracts at Rotherham, so compensation wouldn't be at Lampard levels. Amortisation is awkward figure to add to the costs in a situation where the club has been bought out. I would think that admin expenses have also been cut back.

The player wage bill has been slashed in recent years, but total club wage bill will still be £10m. Led to believe by who? All evidence points to us being able to offer £10k to players (if not more)
Amortisation is very easy to work out. We know which players have book values higher than 'negligible', we know how long they were contracted for, and we know how long they've been at the club.
Admin expenses will have been cut too. Hence my £8m estimate, down from figures exceeding £12m

8 minutes ago, ram59 said:

As I have previously stated the club's income is a lot more than would have been conservatively estimated at the time of the take over. TV money from the FA Cup games and gate money from Anfield would amount to around £500k. Added to this figure is the extra gate money coming in. It would be fair to assume that the conservative business plan would have been based on crowds averaging around 17-18,000 and our actual figures are about 10,000 higher. Most of these 10,000 are non season ticket sales and are full adults, who pay £21 in the mid priced seats for the lowest category games. That would equate to around £200k extra per match or £4.6m per season, even taking out extra costs and some cheaper tickets, this figure is still likely to be in excess of £3m and when you add on the £500k from the cups, we're looking at £3.5m above the business plan.

I haven't doubted we've received more income than originally expected, but that's not what I'm discussing. I've already factored in the increased revenue in my calculations. This also has absolutely nothing to do with the business plan other than being within the permitted losses at the time of the agreement and being even more within the limits now.
Your ticket sales are way out. The average ticket price per game roughly equates to £14. The average attendance is 27,000 (about 20k STHs). We'll be close to £9m for the season.

8 minutes ago, ram59 said:

If, after being £3.5m better off and still losing £7m, are you saying that the EFL accepted a business plan expecting us to lose over £10m per season? 

That's what the evidence suggests...

[SamUltraRam]

2 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Some people still don't believe we'll be running at a loss this season, so I'll show you the numbers. The cash profit/losses will be fairly similar to the accounting profit/losses, so I'll stick to the accounting losses in this example.

Revenue
Our highest recorded revenue was about £30m (most likely higher in seasons where accounts weren't actually posted though). We're now in L1, which comes with reduced TV money. We'll also see a reduction in sponsorship income (lower league = smaller captive audience, and no shirt sponsor money).
Revenue = £20m.

Costs
Wage bill = £10m
Manager compensation, amortisation, profit on player sales = £5m
Other operating costs = £4m (utilities, maintenance, cleaning, policing, stewarding, etc)
Admin expenses = £8m (lowest since 14/15)
Total costs = £27m

Loss = £7m

I agree with much of this GoC. But actually the operating costs may be considerably higher when you see what Boro were paying 4 years ago - mainly because of running Moor Farm and what I believe is still a Cat 1 academy

https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/money-go-hidden-costs-running-15860716

 

[Ghost of Clough]

5 minutes ago, SamUltraRam said:

I agree with much of this GoC. But actually the operating costs may be considerably higher when you see what Boro were paying 4 years ago - mainly because of running Moor Farm and what I believe is still a Cat 1 academy

https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/money-go-hidden-costs-running-15860716

 

Utilities: £1.6m
VAT: £1.4m
Security: £0.8m
Maintenance: £0.7m
Cleaning: £0.6m
Insurance: £0.4m
Medical: £0.4m
Total: £5.9m

All other costs listed are staff costs (wages).

[jono]

2 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

It's the net profit on player sales, which can still be a loss. This is the difference between their remaining book value and the fee sold for.

The only player this is for is Jozwiak. The awkward bit with Jozwiak, is that the admins thought they could class the outstanding sum wouldn't be classed as a footballing debt. So despite us selling him in 21/22, there will be some adjustment in 22/23 to cater for the admins' mistake. 

Everything from the old company transferred to the new one. When transferring player registrations over, they would have still had an assigned book value. This still needs to be amortised. Furniture and other equipment likewise but depreciated instead.

Cash losses and accounting losses won't be too dissimilar. We still had to pay for Jozwiak, and we still have payments to make for Bielik.

Hummm, your last sentence doesn’t quite ring true for me (hey I have absolutely zero info just gut instinct, related to Clowes, the EFL and common sense. .

 

If as you suggest cash and accountancy losses are similar do any of us really think nearly 1 million per month is draining out of the clubs bank account ? Would Clowes accept that ? would the EFL accept that ? . .. I doubt it. My guess is we ARE close to breaking even in cash terms but there are some hefty items weighing on us .. Bielik, Joz, increased utilities and maybe a one off to get Warne in. I’d also venture to suggest that no player - Bielik and old contracts apart - is earning more than 5k a week. … I concede there might be bonuses/top ups for Hourihan and Mc G or some deals in the background but the base load payroll will now be sensible. 

[ram59]

2 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

My assumptions equate to our lowest operating costs since 2006 and our lowest admin expenses since 2014. All of this despite our annual utility costs jumping £1m since our last set of accounts were released too. If anything, I will have under-estimated the costs.

The player wage bill has been slashed in recent years, but total club wage bill will still be £10m. Led to believe by who? All evidence points to us being able to offer £10k to players (if not more)
Amortisation is very easy to work out. We know which players have book values higher than 'negligible', we know how long they were contracted for, and we know how long they've been at the club.
Admin expenses will have been cut too. Hence my £8m estimate, down from figures exceeding £12m

I haven't doubted we've received more income than originally expected, but that's not what I'm discussing. I've already factored in the increased revenue in my calculations. This also has absolutely nothing to do with the business plan other than being within the permitted losses at the time of the agreement and being even more within the limits now.
Your ticket sales are way out. The average ticket price per game roughly equates to £14. The average attendance is 27,000 (about 20k STHs). We'll be close to £9m for the season.

That's what the evidence suggests...

I made an extra allowance of £3m extra gate money which you agreed with then. 9,000 extra fans at £14 would bring in around £3m, added to the £500k cup revenue.

I and would think that the rest of the football world, would be surprised if the EFL allowed a Lg1 club to sustain losses in excess of £10m when working under a 'sustainable' business plan.

[RAM1966]

10 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Some people still don't believe we'll be running at a loss this season, so I'll show you the numbers. The cash profit/losses will be fairly similar to the accounting profit/losses, so I'll stick to the accounting losses in this example.

Revenue
Our highest recorded revenue was about £30m (most likely higher in seasons where accounts weren't actually posted though). We're now in L1, which comes with reduced TV money. We'll also see a reduction in sponsorship income (lower league = smaller captive audience, and no shirt sponsor money).
Revenue = £20m.

Costs
Wage bill = £10m
Manager compensation, amortisation, profit on player sales = £5m
Other operating costs = £4m (utilities, maintenance, cleaning, policing, stewarding, etc)
Admin expenses = £8m (lowest since 14/15)
Total costs = £27m

Loss = £7m

Did Liz Truss help you with these figures?  There is no way on this earth the EFL are going to allow us to lose £7m under a business plan, it would be like sticking 2 fingers up to all the creditors.  I think you guess er sorry calculation on both wages and Amortisation figures are massively over....

I imagine we will be close to breaking even or running at a slight profit, Clowes has said there is wiggle room in the budget, there wouldn't be if we are already predicted to have a £7m loss.  I just can't see it!!!!

[B4ev6is]

Plus all these away games been sold out and you get 5 percent of all away tickets of each club been to this season and I am guessing around 2m  to 3m on that alone.

[jimtastic56]

9 hours ago, B4ev6is said:

Plus all these away games been sold out and you get 5 percent of all away tickets of each club been to this season and I am guessing around 2m  to 3m on that alone.

Nearer to £100k per season unless we get to Wembley. Much more important to sell out at home.

[Boycie]

Supporters charter group meetings are where these questions can be asked.

Is there one planned? @angieram

[richinspain]

11 hours ago, B4ev6is said:

Plus all these away games been sold out and you get 5 percent of all away tickets of each club been to this season and I am guessing around 2m  to 3m on that alone.

 

1 hour ago, jimtastic56 said:

Nearer to £100k per season unless we get to Wembley. Much more important to sell out at home.

I thought that we (or an other club) don't receive a percentage from away games, only cup games.

[Ghost of Clough]

11 hours ago, RAM1966 said:

Did Liz Truss help you with these figures?  There is no way on this earth the EFL are going to allow us to lose £7m under a business plan, it would be like sticking 2 fingers up to all the creditors.  I think you guess er sorry calculation on both wages and Amortisation figures are massively over....

I imagine we will be close to breaking even or running at a slight profit, Clowes has said there is wiggle room in the budget, there wouldn't be if we are already predicted to have a £7m loss.  I just can't see it!!!!

Go on then. Since our business plan estimate would have been based on a revenue of £17m, how much do you think we're actually spending?

The very minimum to run a club of our size is £6m. It was actually about £9m in the 12 months following us entering administration. 
Then there's the transfer/compensation payments, which will be approaching £5m.
You seriously think the total club wage bill is only going to be £3m (or less)? That's not just wages, but tax, NI and pensions too.
During administration, there were severe cuts to the academy, first team staff, and backroom staff. We've already started filling those gaps...

[Ghost of Clough]

15 minutes ago, richinspain said:

I thought that we (or an other club) don't receive a percentage from away games, only cup games.

We gave £800k to other clubs last season (plus the first few games of this season) as their share of ticket money. Not sure on the breakdown.

[Foreveram]

8 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

We gave £800k to other clubs last season (plus the first few games of this season) as their share of ticket money. Not sure on the breakdown.

We gave some damn good support to our club while we were there though.

We also receive a lot of income from away fans visiting Pride Park on their big day out.

[B4ev6is]

34 minutes ago, richinspain said:

 

I thought that we (or an other club) don't receive a percentage from away games, only cup games.

No league games count as percentage mate