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The Ukraine War


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14 minutes ago, Eddie said:

I'm utterly amazed that there are people on here supporting, tacitly approving or claiming to justify Putin's action.

Go back 40 years, and it was claimed that the left supported Russia. How times change.

You haven't read that on here. Nobody has approved, justified Putin. 

Just a refusal to accept he's Hitler 2 based on valid concerns about NATO expansion, aggression and Russian security threats. 

He should have just invaded the Middle East and shouted "for freedom and democracy". Napalm strikes in Vietnam. Arm rebels to overthrow governments. Drop an atomic bomb. Support the "defence" of Israel. Why can't he just stick to saving the world like that? 

Why doesn't he just accept NATO on his doorstep like America were fine with Cuba. 

 

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14 minutes ago, Alpha said:

I'm not counting but I'm fairly sure she's been quoted in Russian news stories more than any of the NATO leaders. She's doing wonders to keep the war going. 

Anyway, turning R2 off now because it's clear they want to paint Putin as Hitler. 

To not recognise what he wants and what Russian concerns are is part of why we are here. It's us accusing Russia of being brainwashed victims of propaganda and yet here we have people claiming that this is the first step in a European invasion. 

I think if you haven't taken the time to listen to Putin then you have no right to say what he wants. 

If you listen and still think he's a maniac, that's a shame but fair enough. But he might make you feel like doing some online digging. 

And after that you can STILL condemn his invasion AND understand him. 

It's perfectly possible to believe Liz truss is a total fud.

It's also possible to understand Putin's world view, objectives and actions, and condem utterly his invasion of Ukraine.

If you understand Putin's world view, you also have to understand that the "peaceful Russia just wants to have it's legitimate security concerns addressed" line is total bull. It's not some new Hitler unique evil, but it is a world view based on threats to be minimised, contained and where possible neutralised. These threats include all of Russia's traditional threats in terms of European powers, the USA, China, and to Putin include liberalism and democracy as tools of the west to weaken Russia. 

A Kissinger type of "delicate balance of terror" might be reached and stabilise the spheres of influence, but, in such analysis, it's the duty of all parties to perpetually seek to advance themselves,the balance depends on that. 

Putin's a mostly rational actor in terms of advancing his cause, he's made a mistake.

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15 minutes ago, ketteringram said:

At the moment, he's the one currently moving towards the border with NATO.

He didn't want to wait for NATO to move their border towards him. Again. (That's a take on it, not my way of saying he had to fire missiles at cities in Ukraine)

But I absolutely disagree with his invasion

I think its interesting that China seems to hold the view that the invasion is wrong, his security concerns are justified, America/NATO have much to answer for, too sanctions will only escalate the problems... but nobody listens to them. Yet they, as far as I can tell, have the most balanced view 

Edited by Alpha
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14 minutes ago, ketteringram said:

At the moment, he's the one currently moving towards the border with NATO.

He’s moving towards it, his actions will ultimately in time have his whole western front surrounded by NATO and EU, it was pretty predictable that this would be a likely outcome even if his forces did better.

And if the stuff coming out of Kharkiv right now is true then I really don’t know where he’s headed!

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1 hour ago, cstand said:

The last time I looked at the thread title it’s about the Ukraine War nothing to do with Brexit.

If you want a discussion about Brexit I suggest you ask the mods to open a new thread.

Unfortunately some people will never come to terms with the fact the EU empire expanding eastwards has given Putin the excuse to invade the Ukraine.

Not matter how much you find this unpalatable it’s an undeniable fact made worse because they was warned in 2014 but they completely ignored this advice.

 

Firstly, I’m not their biggest fan but, I don’t really think you can describe the EU as an empire. Although, as we’ve discovered, it’s not easy, nations are not forced to join and can leave. 
 

Secondly, as far as I’m aware, no new country has joined the EU since Croatia in 2013 so, I’m not sure how the EU has ignored the “advice” (do you mean threat?) of 2014 and continued to expand eastwards.

Thirdly, I thought Russia’s real concern is with NATO. I fully understand their concerns but I’m not sure they should be throwing their weight around because sovereign states would rather join another club rather than theres. 
 

 

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2 minutes ago, Alpha said:

He didn't want to wait for NATO to move their border towards him. Again. 

But I absolutely disagree with his invasion

I think its interesting that China seems to hold the view that the invasion is wrong, his security concerns are justified, America/NATO have much to answer for, too sanctions will only escalate the problems... but nobody listens to them. Yet they, as far as I can tell, have the most balanced view 

China's position is interesting and a bit delicate.

There's the obvious parallel with Taiwan.

But in terms of the current conflict, there's the wider world stage where Russia and China are natural threats to each other, but also share common threats (loosely "the west") and Putin has been making efforts to keep China aligned/persuade China that she should keep her eyes upon Japan, America, India (etc) and Russia will keep her eyes on western Europe.

So, China doesn't want to make an enemy of Russia when it needn't but also has to many other interests to just go with "ok, China-russian block Vs the west"

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2 hours ago, RadioactiveWaste said:

The current war is not only a mistake by Putin, it's also forcing Europe to consider what it actually believes - independent democracies should be defended from aggression, or an acceptance that parts of the world exist as buffer states or puppets in a larger power's sphere of influence.

Both are world views that i can understand, but picking and choosing is a bit hypocritical.

There's also, what do the people of Ukraine want?

I'm a firm believer in self-determination for nation states - via democracy. Although we've seen how divisive it can be when the results are close (Brexit and Scottish Indyref)

I've seen some commentators saying that the only logical workable conclusion is for Ukraine to remain an independent, but crucially agree to be a neutral state. That would satisfy both sides (on paper) 

 

Edited by Stive Pesley
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Just now, Stive Pesley said:

I'm a firm believer in self-determination for nation states - via democracy. Although we've seen how divisive it can be when the results are close (Brexit and Scottish Indyref)

I've seen some commentators saying that the only logical workable conclusion is for Ukraine to remain an independent, but crucially agree to be a neutral state. That would satisfy both sides (on paper) 

 

Yeah,on paper it might.

If you were Ukraine would you want to de-militerize after this?

Also, what would this neautality actually consist of?

What if, democratically, Ukraine rejects neautality?

How can self determination, as long as you don't determine something the big bear next door doesn't like, be self determination?

And, how much do we expect Russia to respect that neautality anyway?

 

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5 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

I'm a firm believer in self-determination for nation states - via democracy. Although we've seen how divisive it can be when the results are close (Brexit and Scottish Indyref)

I've seen some commentators saying that the only logical workable conclusion is for Ukraine to remain an independent, but crucially agree to be a neutral state. That would satisfy both sides (on paper) 

 

But Putin has pushed them towards us with his "special military operation"

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6 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

On 3rd Feb 2022 the United Nations voted Moscow the best city in the world to live in in terms of 'quality of life' and 'infrastructure development' and fourth overall.

The report defines quality of life as “how an individual’s life or society’s condition is in comparison to another person or society, i.e. how good (or bad) someone’s life is compared to other individuals’ lives. Therefore, this is the measurement of a city’s average achievements for ensuring general well-being and satisfaction of its citizens.”

Infrastructure development is defined as “the set of basic physical systems, organizational structures, facilities, and installations needed for the functioning of a society, or economy. The prosperity of a city largely depends on the development of infrastructure, including transportation, communication, or provision of [basic] services, among others.”

If that feels to you like a despotic state then I'd suggest we all live in one. Indeed, as for your last sentence I say, without any irony, that I could list actions of the current UK government that would easily fall into that category.

I'm not arguing against the notion that Moscow can be a pleasant place to live if you have enough money and you keep any divergent political views to yourself.  I'm not having a go at Russia the place, or the Russian people in general.  I'm criticizing Putin and the state  he maintains.

There is other data to look at to get a grasp on what sort of country Putin rules over.  There is the Reporters without Borders World Press Freedom Index which lists Russia 150th out of 180 countries....where it is revealingly surrounded by other countries ruled by dictators.

https://rsf.org/en/ranking_table

There is the  Democracy Index which gives Russia an overall score of 3.24 in 2021, which earns it the classification of 'Authoritarian Regime'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index

Or there is the Human Freedom Index where Russia ranks 115th in the world...far behind any European country, even Belarus which is a country clearly run by a dictator.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/freest-countries

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35 minutes ago, RadioactiveWaste said:

China's position is interesting and a bit delicate.

There's the obvious parallel with Taiwan.

But in terms of the current conflict, there's the wider world stage where Russia and China are natural threats to each other, but also share common threats (loosely "the west") and Putin has been making efforts to keep China aligned/persuade China that she should keep her eyes upon Japan, America, India (etc) and Russia will keep her eyes on western Europe.

So, China doesn't want to make an enemy of Russia when it needn't but also has to many other interests to just go with "ok, China-russian block Vs the west"

Does the Russia China position now have any similarities to the German Russian position at the start of hitler s germany which then moved onto hitler invading Russia ? Obviously different times and different stakes in the nuclear age 

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7 minutes ago, Highgate said:

I'm not arguing against the notion that Moscow can be a pleasant place to live if you have enough money and you keep any divergent political views to yourself.  I'm not having a go at Russia the place, or the Russian people in general.  I'm criticizing Putin and the state  he maintains.

There is other data to look at to get a grasp on what sort of country Putin rules over.  There is the Reporters without Borders World Press Freedom Index which lists Russia 150th out of 180 countries....where it is revealingly surrounded by other countries ruled by dictators.

https://rsf.org/en/ranking_table

There is the  Democracy Index which gives Russia an overall score of 3.24 in 2021, which earns it the classification of 'Authoritarian Regime'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index

Or there is the Human Freedom Index where Russia ranks 115th in the world...far behind any European country, even Belarus which is a country clearly run by a dictator.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/freest-countries

Human Freedom Index: Russia is positioned about halfway, glass half empty, glass half full? Behind Morocco and one place ahead of Thailand, a few ahead of India yet I struggle to remember the last time I heard anyone calling the leader of those countries a dictator. Whynot? Because it doesn't fit the required narrative

Nobody is debating there is little in the way of free media in Russia, nobody is debating that dissent is met with strong resistance (Navalny, Khodorkhovsky), nobody is saying that Russian people don't undestand that you will get into trouble if you step out of line. But I can say about what I know and see of the 'state he maintains' and that is that amongst the Russian people he is largely popular and has done more to improve the quality of life of the average Russian on the street - at all levels, not just the oligarchs - than the likes of Boris Johnson would, or could, achieve in five lifetimes of trying.

In conclusion, it suits the West to paint Putin as a despot, a Soviet dinosaur, an empirical zealot. If you've got an enemy to rail against then you need your leaders to protect you (pick up a bit of Noam Chomsky if you want some more on that) so it benefits all to have that friction in place. It also falls into the part that irritates me most - so please excuse me - that we have no right to be telling Putin how to run his country in the same way that Putin has no right to invade his neighbours territories just because he thinks Khruschev was wrong to give it away. It's manifest destiny, it's the American suggestion that democracy as they state it is the only version that is acceptable. They tried that in Iraq and, well, it didn't go too well.

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28 minutes ago, Archied said:

Does the Russia China position now have any similarities to the German Russian position at the start of hitler s germany which then moved onto hitler invading Russia ? Obviously different times and different stakes in the nuclear age 

Possibly. I wouldn't take the analogy too far though. At the time of the Hitler-stalin deal (Molotov-Ribbentrop pact) there was Russia looking nervously at Japan as well as the Germans, so to substitute China in that way can make sense.

Or do you mean more like Russia being in Germany's position (surrounded by threats and not strong enough to overcome them all at the same time) and China being in Russia's position of needing to keep the threat on one side at least quiet enough to get on with what it's doing elsewhere?

It's definitely got an air of some uneasy "you go west, I'll go east" understanding which parallels, and I bet they don't trust each other too much.

One of Tom Clancy's books was about a fictional war between Russia and China (forget which one)

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1 hour ago, Stive Pesley said:

I'm a firm believer in self-determination for nation states - via democracy. Although we've seen how divisive it can be when the results are close (Brexit and Scottish Indyref)

I've seen some commentators saying that the only logical workable conclusion is for Ukraine to remain an independent, but crucially agree to be a neutral state. That would satisfy both sides (on paper) 

 

All politics is divisive in the modern world with a click bait MSM trying to fill 24hr news and social media sites such as Twitter. 

The Ukraine remaining independent but neutral and having a working relationship with Russia was my preferred option before Putin invaded.

Been following this guy on you tube for a few years as he travelled through the old soviet countries making videos though now trying to leave  the Ukraine.

 

Edited by cstand
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