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Points Target By Jan


DCFC1388

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On 04/11/2021 at 22:31, MackworthRamIsGod said:

Imo if we are 10 points from being safe with 10 games to go absolutely anything can happen.

If Rooney is able to strengthen in Jan and we don't panic sign lots of Patrick Roberts type signings we could be OK.

Last night might work in our favour, hopefully the players are hurting and we get a reaction.

 

Patrick Robert’s scored the goal that kept us up. And it was a very good goal too.

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If we lose another 3 points that makes us 12 points from safety which could be as high as 15 in the next couple of weeks. I really can't see us putting a run together to get us those points. After-all we've only won 3 games this season and draws simply won't be enough to save us after everything. I'm not overly optimistic about the transfer window, this is when players are notoriously overpriced and who is really going to want to join what is perceived as a sinking ship? 

In my head at least I think we're pretty much done. I think the new owners need to have a plan for league 1 that they can execute on day 1 to try and haul us out quickly from that division. 

Edited by Leeds Ram
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The way I look at is Peterborough, Hull & Barnsley are likely to be down there with us all season & we have all 3 of them to play at home so thats a big chance of points to gain on them.

Other than the top 3 the rest of this league is bang average - get Bielik back, new owner & new signings we could still survive imo

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With 20 games left it might be very difficult even when January comes around.

Christmas is usually the half way point. So I would say we need to be within 6 points.

With new owners, a strong January xfer window likely with loans from anyone who will give them, new contracts for our most valuable players and Bielik back we might be in with a slim chance. 

Anymore and I think we are gonners.

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6 minutes ago, kingsy1884 said:

With 20 games left it might be very difficult even when January comes around.

Christmas is usually the half way point. So I would say we need to be within 6 points.

With new owners, a strong January xfer window likely with loans from anyone who will give them, new contracts for our most valuable players and Bielik back we might be in with a slim chance. 

Anymore and I think we are gonners.

Agree with this, the biggest problem I can see in my head is having the takeover done and all of our nonsense with the EFL cleared with enough time left to do anything in January.

I am convinced of two things,

1. The takeover might not happen as quickly as we would like

2. Even if the takeover does happen in good time, the EFL will vindictively drag things out for as long as possible to reduce the chances of us being able to have a successful transfer window.

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2 minutes ago, MACKWORTHRAM said:

I've got us down to get 8 points between now and January. 

And I've been ambitious there.

We'll be dead and buried by January.

Really we just need to get players in who we want here next season for a push in league one.

You only have to look at Sunderland to realise how hard that league is to get out of.

 

glad you’re not in charge 

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46 points is the target for the end of the season at this point.

We'll be 25 games into the season by the time we get to Jan, with 21 left to play. My target would be 18, but as long as we have at least 15 points by then we're in with a reasonable chance - leaving us to chase about 30 points for the 2nd half of the season. 

A lot depends on the points deductions. Any more taken away and we'll be facing a very difficult task, but if we do end up with less then I'll be extremely optimistic. 

So far we're averaging about 1 point per game. With a young squad (except just a few) I am also hopefully that we get stronger as the season goes on. This is boosted by influential players returning from injury (Bielik) and others improving their match fitness (Knight, Kazim, Baldock). Who knows, maybe we'll be able to add a couple of players in January if the embargo is lifted. This means a gradual increase from the current 1 ppg, ending the season with a 1.5 ppg rolling average.

As I have no life, I've modelled an example (below). [Red line being the current moment in time, dotted line being the 6 game rolling average)

image.thumb.png.7dacdd8131b15af5c5e9851a896dfe50.png

First half of the season: 4W, 6L
Second half of the season: 7W, 5L

On paper, that doesn't look too unreasonable IMO.

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1 hour ago, Foreveram said:

glad you’re not in charge 

Go on then mate. How many points we getting. 

FWIW this is what I think:-

Bournemouth (H) - 0

Fulham (A) - 0

QPR (H) - 3

Bristol City (A) - 1

Blackpool (H) - 3

Cardiff (A) - 1

West Brom (H) - 0

I've just tried to be realistic. Considering we've not been able to beat Blackburn at home, Luton at home. Probably put in our best perform of the season away at a poor Preston side and still didn't win. I'm not exactly confident we'll win the ones I've said. Blackpool re doing well, QPR are doing well. 

That's 7 games there. From our previous 7 games we've picked up 5 points and those previous 7 were easier than what the next 7 are.

We can't score goals, we had a strong base at the back and now we're conceding bad goals. It's almost like when we go 1 down, you know we aren't scoring 2 goals to come back. 

How many times have we scored 2 goals in a game this season? Twice? When was the last time we scored 3?

It's looking likely we'll be 12 points adrift very soon. With this other 3 coming off.

I'd guess by January we'll be even further adrift than that.

We've won 4 games out of the last 32.

We need to win 4 and hope others lose just to scrape out.

We're down and that's that. Our only hope was winning the appeal. 

New owner with new ideas and a clear plan, clear targets to try and build again and bounce back.

We need to target players in January who are prepared to play in league one next season and hopefully have a promotion push so we can bounce straight back. But as many teams have shown, this won't be easy.

 

Edited by MACKWORTHRAM
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On 04/11/2021 at 18:54, RoyMac5 said:

Not sure how many games it is, but we should be aiming to be less than 3 points away. Our goal difference gives us an 'extra point'.

image.png.e0cbb0a2734f78e1a52d9623e5e4604c.png

All I want to see is a narrowing of the gap between 24th and 21st

currently we are 7 points adrift .. if it’s 4 in January then progress is being made. What happens if Reading get hit or anyone else … The situation is dire but things can change.

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