Points Target By Jan

[BramcoteRam84]

Everyone is speculating. Fact is we can’t determine if our chances of survival until at least Christmas. We might not pick up many points but other teams may not. Bielik could have a positive impact, we beat Bournemouth last season could happen again, they might score an og and then have 2 goals disallowed hit the woodwork 4 times and clear 3 off the line. It’s the championship, anything can happen. It’s too early to rule survival out.

Getting a buyer by January enabling us to keep this squad and adding to it is absolutely critical. If we need a fire sale in January to keep the club going it’s over, hence why it’s positive the administrators are being tough on the timescales.

[Leeds Ram]

1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

46 points is the target for the end of the season at this point.

We'll be 25 games into the season by the time we get to Jan, with 21 left to play. My target would be 18, but as long as we have at least 15 points by then we're in with a reasonable chance - leaving us to chase about 30 points for the 2nd half of the season. 

A lot depends on the points deductions. Any more taken away and we'll be facing a very difficult task, but if we do end up with less then I'll be extremely optimistic. 

So far we're averaging about 1 point per game. With a young squad (except just a few) I am also hopefully that we get stronger as the season goes on. This is boosted by influential players returning from injury (Bielik) and others improving their match fitness (Knight, Kazim, Baldock). Who knows, maybe we'll be able to add a couple of players in January if the embargo is lifted. This means a gradual increase from the current 1 ppg, ending the season with a 1.5 ppg rolling average.

As I have no life, I've modelled an example (below). [Red line being the current moment in time, dotted line being the 6 game rolling average)

First half of the season: 4W, 6L
Second half of the season: 7W, 5L

On paper, that doesn't look too unreasonable IMO.

You see I see the opposite happening in terms of squad strength, if the squad is small then logic dictates it'll become weaker over time as injuries, suspensions, and fatigue set in.  An increase in squad strength on paper does not also necessarily mean an uplift in results, our squad may become proportionally weaker for instance in comparison with others. 

If we get hit with another 3 points deduction that means to even to get to 15 we need either 4 wins (something we've not managed in 17 games so why we'd manage that in 8 games is beyond me) or 3 wins and 3 draws meaning we can only lose 2 of the next 8...  Even if we don't get hit with another 3 points worth of deductions we still need 9 points from 8 games including stoke away, Bournemouth, west brom, and Fulham at home. That puts enormous pressure on getting a lot of points from Blackpool, QPR, Bristol, and Cardiff when you'd think the players would be quite fatigued from both the run in and the amount of ground they'll have to cover against dominant possession based teams such as Fulham and Bournemouth. 

[Jimbo Ram]

3 minutes ago, Leeds Ram said:

You see I see the opposite happening in terms of squad strength, if the squad is small then logic dictates it'll become weaker over time as injuries, suspensions, and fatigue set in.  An increase in squad strength on paper does not also necessarily mean an uplift in results, our squad may become proportionally weaker for instance in comparison with others. 

If we get hit with another 3 points deduction that means to even to get to 15 we need either 4 wins (something we've not managed in 17 games so why we'd manage that in 8 games is beyond me) or 3 wins and 3 draws meaning we can only lose 2 of the next 8...  Even if we don't get hit with another 3 points worth of deductions we still need 9 points from 8 games including stoke away, Bournemouth, west brom, and Fulham at home. That puts enormous pressure on getting a lot of points from Blackpool, QPR, Bristol, and Cardiff when you'd think the players would be quite fatigued from both the run in and the amount of ground they'll have to cover against dominant possession based teams such as Fulham and Bournemouth. 

I have just about accepted that we will go down. If the points deductions are sorted for this season and don’t drag in to next season and we have a new owner sorted I will be happy enough. Hopefully make a strong push to come straight back up next season.

[Leeds Ram]

1 minute ago, Jimbo Ram said:

I have just about accepted that we will go down. If the points deductions are sorted for this season and don’t drag in to next season and we have a new owner sorted I will be happy enough. Hopefully make a strong push to come straight back up next season.

This is my thinking. It also makes me nervous if people aren't prepared for league 1 but instead are throwing the kitchen sink at what is realistically pretty much a lost cause. It's exactly what the club did in January of our premier league season, bought players on expensive contracts such as Savage to try and give the club a bit of hope instead of actively planning for the next season in the championship.  

[Yani P]

When Jewell became manager one of the first things he said was he was preparing the team for the championship.. that was in November..

[Ghost of Clough]

50 minutes ago, Leeds Ram said:

You see I see the opposite happening in terms of squad strength, if the squad is small then logic dictates it'll become weaker over time as injuries, suspensions, and fatigue set in.  An increase in squad strength on paper does not also necessarily mean an uplift in results, our squad may become proportionally weaker for instance in comparison with others. 

If we get hit with another 3 points deduction that means to even to get to 15 we need either 4 wins (something we've not managed in 17 games so why we'd manage that in 8 games is beyond me) or 3 wins and 3 draws meaning we can only lose 2 of the next 8...  Even if we don't get hit with another 3 points worth of deductions we still need 9 points from 8 games including stoke away, Bournemouth, west brom, and Fulham at home. That puts enormous pressure on getting a lot of points from Blackpool, QPR, Bristol, and Cardiff when you'd think the players would be quite fatigued from both the run in and the amount of ground they'll have to cover against dominant possession based teams such as Fulham and Bournemouth. 

We've already had our run of players being out: Kazim, Baldock, Knight all missed a long run of games, plus Bielik still to come back in. We've also had a number of players out 'ill' and a few suspensions.
Buchanan, Festy, Bird, and Knight in my opinion will only get better as the season goes on. I also have hopes that Sibley will continue to mature and establish himself as a top attacking player later in the season.
A couple of additions in January, notably a pacey CB, will have a bigger impact than some realise. It would assist in the tactics being implemented by Rooney, in that we can afford to play a higher line and push the wing backs forward and not get punished as often.

[Ghost of Clough]

52 minutes ago, Yani P said:

When Jewell became manager one of the first things he said was he was preparing the team for the championship.. that was in November..

He lied to us... isn't it obvious he was preparing us for League 1?

[Leeds Ram]

1 hour ago, Yani P said:

When Jewell became manager one of the first things he said was he was preparing the team for the championship.. that was in November..

It's also pretty well known that we brought in players in January to 'boost' the sinking ship and our scattergun approach in the transfer market in the second division could  have been alleviated if we'd spent that January identifying targets  for championship football. 

 

21 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

We've already had our run of players being out: Kazim, Baldock, Knight all missed a long run of games, plus Bielik still to come back in. We've also had a number of players out 'ill' and a few suspensions.
Buchanan, Festy, Bird, and Knight in my opinion will only get better as the season goes on. I also have hopes that Sibley will continue to mature and establish himself as a top attacking player later in the season.
A couple of additions in January, notably a pacey CB, will have a bigger impact than some realise. It would assist in the tactics being implemented by Rooney, in that we can afford to play a higher line and push the wing backs forward and not get punished as often.

I never knew you get runs of players being out and then it magically stops... suspensions, fatigue and injuries will be a continual issue especially with the depth of the squad we have. How many goals has sibley scored so far this season? Buchanan has been a mixed bag and he's not going to magically become much better in the second half of the season and I'd suggest that goes for all the above. Maybe the exception could be ebosele. I'd suggest pushing both the wingbacks forward as we do is inherently a tactical problem leaving us vulnerable on the flanks, stretching out the middle and leaving us very vulnerable to counters whether you get a pacey cb or not. 

If we can bring in anyone that is... and even then other teams will also make additions too. Do I think we can improve our squad to the extent of us overtaking our rivals and putting together a run of form for the second half of the season that Rooney so far hasn't been able to achieve? No, and I don't think it's particularly realistic to think that it will happen either. If we lose another 3 points we need to  collect at least 41 points from 29 games. There's absolutely nothing but hope to suggest that we can put together that points tally. I'd suggest from 29 games we might take anywhere from 25-32 which is more encompassing of our form from last season and our current points tally. 

Edited November 9, 2021 by Leeds Ram

[Yani P]

28 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

He lied to us... isn't it obvious he was preparing us for League 1?

He was preparing a team for the Championship that would prepare for League 1

[Crewton]

1 hour ago, Leeds Ram said:

It also makes me nervous if people aren't prepared for league 1 but instead are throwing the kitchen sink at what is realistically pretty much a lost cause.

I think any agreement with the EFL will pretty much rule that out. At best, we might get put on a 'soft' embargo and be able to sign additional players on maximum salaries of £600 kpa provided we keep within the agreed BP budgets.

[VulcanRam]

5 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

46 points is the target for the end of the season at this point.

We'll be 25 games into the season by the time we get to Jan, with 21 left to play. My target would be 18, but as long as we have at least 15 points by then we're in with a reasonable chance - leaving us to chase about 30 points for the 2nd half of the season. 

A lot depends on the points deductions. Any more taken away and we'll be facing a very difficult task, but if we do end up with less then I'll be extremely optimistic. 

So far we're averaging about 1 point per game. With a young squad (except just a few) I am also hopefully that we get stronger as the season goes on. This is boosted by influential players returning from injury (Bielik) and others improving their match fitness (Knight, Kazim, Baldock). Who knows, maybe we'll be able to add a couple of players in January if the embargo is lifted. This means a gradual increase from the current 1 ppg, ending the season with a 1.5 ppg rolling average.

As I have no life, I've modelled an example (below). [Red line being the current moment in time, dotted line being the 6 game rolling average)

First half of the season: 4W, 6L
Second half of the season: 7W, 5L

On paper, that doesn't look too unreasonable IMO.

Good effort, thanks, I'm glad you explained what that graph said!! You've taken the most optimistic scenario of the team getting better, players coming back from injury and new players in in January. For all three of those to happen without any negatives - suspensions, injuries, loss of form etc, would be unusual and a more realistic scenario would be a mix of all of the above.

But you're right, here's hoping....and again, thank you, good graph. Whatever it means. 

[DCFC1388]

I wonder at what point we almost accept we're down & just go for it in games, its at this point when players play with more freedom & less pressure that we might pick up more points.

Similar to Wycombe last year who for nearly all of the season looked dead & buried until the point they just went for it and ended up 1pt from saftey & moaning about it to everyone that we should be relegated instead of them.

Edited November 9, 2021 by DCFC1388