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Relegation watch

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Tamworthram

Tamworthram

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Posted
4 hours ago, Will the Ram said:

A Rotherham win tonight would put us in the bottom three. How is that a good result for us?

The only debatable benefit is it would mean Wednesday are down and out by the time we play them. But, it has to be by far the worst possible result for us tonight.

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Comrade 86
Comrade 86

Here's a dog and frisbee metaphor for what I think when I hear 'it's back in our hands'...  

24Charlie
24Charlie

A late, soul destroying, kick in the swingers for Rotherham there. Just what the doctor ordered.

Kernow
Kernow

It’s mid-April and I’m fist-pumping over the fact Birmingham have scored a last minute winner over Rotherham. Can we go back to 2014 please?

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TigerTedd

TigerTedd

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

Now is the time for your annual reminder that Rotherham's superior goal difference doesn't effectively give them an extra point. It gives them an effective point value of anything between (but not including) 0 and 1.

Yes, I'm a Bamford.

I’m too tired to do the maths, but is there a scenario where Rotherham get thrashed tonight 6-0, then goal difference isn’t a factor. 

that’s probably benefit Wednesday more than us though. 

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Oldben

Oldben

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Luton news ...

https://www.lutontoday.co.uk/sport/football/luton-town/clark-could-miss-season-finale-for-luton-after-suffering-ankle-injury-3222983

https://www.thestar.co.uk/sport/football/rotherham-expect-to-be-without-angus-macdonald-for-rest-of-the-season-3222725

https://www.thestar.co.uk/sport/football/sheffield-wednesday/everybody-was-trying-to-relegate-us-luton-town-wont-roll-over-for-sheffield-wednesdays-relegation-rivals-3222564

https://www.derbycounty.news/analysis/Derby-target-james-collins-could-now-play-key-role-in-rams-survival-bid/

 

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Rammy03

Rammy03

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1 hour ago, Tamworthram said:

The only debatable benefit is it would mean Wednesday are down and out by the time we play them. But, it has to be by far the worst possible result for us tonight.

Definitely. Because it would be out of our hands completely. If they draw against Cardiff, we will have to beat Wednesday. If they beat Cardiff it doesn't matter what we do. I'm hoping for a Rotherham loss tonight for sure, back in our hands and then a draw on Saturday would see us safe.

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MrPlinkett

MrPlinkett

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2 hours ago, kevinhectoring said:

Worried all this rain will give Rotherham just the pitch they want tonight   Maybe a Postponement might be good for us ... 

No i think they need to play, i would hate to see a postponement push the game beyond the end of the season, have visions of a luton team with not much to play for having even less when the season has ended and they are already on the beach mentally.

Lets go into Saturday knowing what needs to be achieved, not winning but still wondering if we could get relegated at a later date.

 

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RoyMac5

RoyMac5

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2 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

The only debatable benefit is it would mean Wednesday are down and out by the time we play them. But, it has to be by far the worst possible result for us tonight.

So they'd get to play with no pressure, just to look good for a potential new club? Very debatable indeed as you say.

46 minutes ago, Rammy03 said:

I'm hoping for a Rotherham loss tonight for sure, back in our hands and then a draw on Saturday would see us safe.

Let's hope so Madame Zaza. ?

#COYR

How many pages will this thread add on tonight I wonder! 

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Tamworthram

Tamworthram

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1 minute ago, RoyMac5 said:

So they'd get to play with no pressure, just to look good for a potential new club? Very debatable indeed as you say.

Let's hope so Madame Zaza. ?

#COYR

How many pages will this thread add on tonight I wonder! 

I did say debatable.
 

it can cut both ways. They might not be bothered putting too much effort in especially if they’ve not been paid, but, on the other hand, it’s not uncommon for teams with no pressure and nothing to play for put in a good performance.

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Ken Tram

Ken Tram

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Posted

 

Probability of Relegation

If Rotherham: win/draw/lose tonight 

Derby: 59% / 38% / 33%

Rotherham: 41% / 82% / 89%

Sheffield: 100% / 80% / 78%

Wycombe: 100% / 100% / 100%

Note: 100% means >99.99%

Method of calculation: based upon quite a few assumptions, as explained in previous posts!

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Ken Tram

Ken Tram

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Posted

Thinking about how the way that Sheffield might autism the batch against us based upon tonight's result ...

If Rotherham win tonight ... then Sheffield will play us needing a win and a swing of at least 6 goals compared with Rotherham.

There only slim chance of survival will come from whacking lots past us, and hoping that Cardiff do the same to Rotherham.

However, if Rotherham win or draw, then Sheffield will survive by beating us by one goal, if Ruthann lose. 

Assuming that it is less risky to play a balanced game, compared with chasing a goal swing of six goals - I expect that they'll only take the all-out attacking approach of Rotherham win tonight. Even if Rotherham were to lose tonight, but go into the lead on Saturday; Sheffield's best chances would like in a balanced game seeking a win, and hoping that Rotherham get turned over, rather than going for a 5 goal swing.

Maybe!

I am thinking that Sheffield might approach our game very differently if Rotherham win tonight. I know that's staying the obvious. But, playing a team that is looking for a victory is a different game to playing a team that needs to overturn five or more goals. 

And I'm wondering how these two scenarios would affect the psyche of our players, and Rooney's tactics [stop - don't be mean!].

Would we be more likely to steal goals against a team going for all out attack, or might we be more likely to succumb. (Even if Sheffield, fit a goal or two, if they were in all out attack mode, they'd still be vulnerable to counter attacks, because they would need to push on for more goals.)

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Ken Tram

Ken Tram

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Posted
6 hours ago, MrPlinkett said:

No i think they need to play, i would hate to see a postponement push the game beyond the end of the season, have visions of a luton team with not much to play for having even less when the season has ended and they are already on the beach mentally.

Lets go into Saturday knowing what needs to be achieved, not winning but still wondering if we could get relegated at a later date.

 

Roughly when did matches start getting postponed for water or snow? Even fog had to bring visibility down to 50 yards from what it felt like to me.

How unplayable was the pitch when we postponed our game earlier in the season?

Regardless of wanting to know the scoreline, would it be to our advantage for Rotherham to play on a sod-ridden pitch?

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Ken Tram

Ken Tram

Posted
Posted

Survival Watch - Probabilities

If, tonight ...

... Rotherham ... win /draw / lose

Derby: 41% / 62% / 67%

Rotherham: 59% / 18% / 11%

Sheffield: 0% / 20% / 23%

Wycombe: 0% / 0% / 0%

Note: 0% means <1%

Method of calculation: based upon quite a few assumptions, as explained in previous posts!

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Tyler Durden

Tyler Durden

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ken Tram said:

Thinking about how the way that Sheffield might autism the batch against us based upon tonight's result ...

If Rotherham win tonight ... then Sheffield will play us needing a win and a swing of at least 6 goals compared with Rotherham.

There only slim chance of survival will come from whacking lots past us, and hoping that Cardiff do the same to Rotherham.

However, if Rotherham win or draw, then Sheffield will survive by beating us by one goal, if Ruthann lose. 

Assuming that it is less risky to play a balanced game, compared with chasing a goal swing of six goals - I expect that they'll only take the all-out attacking approach of Rotherham win tonight. Even if Rotherham were to lose tonight, but go into the lead on Saturday; Sheffield's best chances would like in a balanced game seeking a win, and hoping that Rotherham get turned over, rather than going for a 5 goal swing.

Maybe!

I am thinking that Sheffield might approach our game very differently if Rotherham win tonight. I know that's staying the obvious. But, playing a team that is looking for a victory is a different game to playing a team that needs to overturn five or more goals. 

And I'm wondering how these two scenarios would affect the psyche of our players, and Rooney's tactics [stop - don't be mean!].

Would we be more likely to steal goals against a team going for all out attack, or might we be more likely to succumb. (Even if Sheffield, fit a goal or two, if they were in all out attack mode, they'd still be vulnerable to counter attacks, because they would need to push on for more goals.)

Autism the batch, is that a euphemism for something else ?

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