Relegation watch

[mwram1973]

1 hour ago, Jourdan said:

With the greatest respect, my head is clear. There is a long way to go.

Only two games ago, we were in the bottom three and we’ve been in the bottom 6-8 positions for two thirds of this season, so it’s hardly outrageous to be cautious about our survival prospects.

You can relax if you want. You are infatuated with Rooney and that’s fine. But with respect, not every Derby fan is going to see our situation like yourself.

Knowing how people treated you over your views about Martin, Cocu and so on, I would have thought you would know what it’s like to be belittled for your opinions and you would not treat others like that. Quite surprising for you to say something like ‘it’s grim in your head’.

Tbh, weve won 5 out of the last 6 & third on current form only bettered by watford and brentford. Since Rooney has taken charge we have seen a massive upturn in performances and results. Yes there will be the odd blip that's football but it's obvious we are on the up.

We were slipping down places when teams were winning their games in hand (like qpr tonight) but that won't last as they catch up their games.

It's not a time to be over confident I agree but if we keep playing and picking up the points like we have done since he became manager then I cannot see how we will go down.

 

[Jourdan]

1 hour ago, RoyMac5 said:

I'm a Rooney fan boy for sure, we're no longer in danger of going down, plenty of others looking worse than us! As I said to another poster I'm only in a negative mindset when it's clear things are grim - you seem unable to see the light.

No longer in danger? That’s opinion, not a fact.

Six games ago, we were 23rd. We had 19 points and were 12 points behind Huddersfield, 7 points behind Coventry and Birmingham, 6 points behind Forest and level on points with Rotherham and Sheff Wed.

Now we have overtaken all of them. We’ve had an incredible turnaround. But that is why we can’t relax and discount other teams. If we can do that, so can other teams. We have to be on our guard and appreciate that things can change quickly.

Unable to see the light? I think I’ve gone on record multiple times saying that Rooney has done a good job so far and given him the credit he deserves. I don’t think it’s negative to say our work is not done.

Things are still very much in the balance. If you don’t believe that, fair enough. Time will tell if I am just being paranoid.

The one thing I will say is that we play 5 of the 7 teams below us in the coming months, so our fate is now in our own hands if we can get positive results in those games.

[Mckram]

1 hour ago, YouRams said:

Looking at the previous 5 seasons the highest points total needed to stay up was 51, we’ve got 17 games to go 51 points to play for and only 17 needed, 5 wins a couple of draws and could afford to lose a whopping 10 games, surely we can’t fudge that up? 

Peterborough got 54 points one season and went down, but still even 20 points in 17 games doesn’t feel that bad for us.

I’d imagine 50+ should be ok, so I’m fairly confident now. It would take something drastically to go wrong again to not hit that! 

 

[TigerTedd]

1 hour ago, Jourdan said:

No longer in danger? That’s opinion, not a fact.

Six games ago, we were 23rd. We had 19 points and were 12 points behind Huddersfield, 7 points behind Coventry and Birmingham, 6 points behind Forest and level on points with Rotherham and Sheff Wed.

Now we have overtaken all of them. We’ve had an incredible turnaround. But that is why we can’t relax and discount other teams. If we can do that, so can other teams. We have to be on our guard and appreciate that things can change quickly.

Unable to see the light? I think I’ve gone on record multiple times saying that Rooney has done a good job so far and given him the credit he deserves. I don’t think it’s negative to say our work is not done.

Things are still very much in the balance. If you don’t believe that, fair enough. Time will tell if I am just being paranoid.

The one thing I will say is that we play 5 of the 7 teams below us in the coming months, so our fate is now in our own hands if we can get positive results in those games.

But the clubs were overtaking are on a downward spiral, were on a clear upward curve. 

there’s before Rooney, and there’s after Rooney, and after rooney, apart from the odd poor result, our form has been fantastic. 

so there really is no reason to believe we’ll suddenly become poo overnight. These things don’t happen randomly, the championship is not so unpredictable as everyone makes out, there are patterns. And the pattern is, we’re are heading upwards, whilst many around us are heading downwards, and there isn’t enough time left in the season for them to significantly change their trajectories to match our own. 

having all said that, I’m fairly sure we’ll lose to Watford. They’re on a great run too, and we made hard work of the bottom club. We’re still some way off that level. So it won’t be a sunrise when we lose, and I’m sure it’ll all be doom and gloom on here again. But our seasoned won’t be defined by a loss to Watford. If we win though, that would be a helluva result. 

[Jourdan]

39 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

...

We have gone from 23rd to 17th in four weeks. Yes, we are on an upward curve at the moment. We have won 8 and drawn 4 in our 16 games under Rooney - the kind of results that a team in 3rd or 4th would produce. Yes, our form is fantastic. None of this I would dispute. 

Huddersfield, Birmingham and Coventry have indeed gone careering down the table, but Forest, Rotherham and Sheff Wed have been getting good results by and large. If you don’t think 16-17 games is enough time for things to change, then that’s your prerogative.

All I am saying is a little bit of caution is needed. You are saying that we won’t become poor overnight, but we’ve both watched Derby over the last 13 years in the Championship and seen it happen not only to ourselves but to many teams down the years.

A team’s form or confidence can very well turn on its head with one result or change of circumstance. Teams can go from the sublime to the ridiculous very easily in this division.

Watford will be an awkward game. They are favourites given their strong home form and their current form in general. Who knows if we can spring a surprise? Never say never.

It’s a big week ahead. Watford away is in my opinion a free hit, but Huddersfield and Forest are two pressure cooker games. Some are saying we are no longer in danger. What if Huddersfield and Forest do a job on us and come away with 1-0 wins just like Rotherham did?

The relegation picture could look totally different 10 days from now. We have to hope that we come out on the other side in a position of strength. But history shows us Derby County don’t do straightforward, hence my worries.

Edited February 18, 2021 by Jourdan

[BramcoteRam84]

6 hours ago, Jourdan said:

We have gone from 23rd to 17th in four weeks. Yes, we are on an upward curve at the moment. We have won 8 and drawn 4 in our 16 games under Rooney - the kind of results that a team in 3rd or 4th would produce. Yes, our form is fantastic. None of this I would dispute. 

Huddersfield, Birmingham and Coventry have indeed gone careering down the table, but Forest, Rotherham and Sheff Wed have been getting good results by and large. If you don’t think 16-17 games is enough time for things to change, then that’s your prerogative.

All I am saying is a little bit of caution is needed. You are saying that we won’t become poor overnight, but we’ve both watched Derby over the last 13 years in the Championship and seen it happen not only to ourselves but to many teams down the years.

A team’s form or confidence can very well turn on its head with one result or change of circumstance. Teams can go from the sublime to the ridiculous very easily in this division.

Watford will be an awkward game. They are favourites given their strong home form and their current form in general. Who knows if we can spring a surprise? Never say never.

It’s a big week ahead. Watford away is in my opinion a free hit, but Huddersfield and Forest are two pressure cooker games. Some are saying we are no longer in danger. What if Huddersfield and Forest do a job on us and come away with 1-0 wins just like Rotherham did?

The relegation picture could look totally different 10 days from now. We have to hope that we come out on the other side in a position of strength. But history shows us Derby County don’t do straightforward, hence my worries.

Everything people are saying about pulling clear of this is obviously caveated with as long as we maintain a decent level of form. Things can change quickly you’re right. If we don’t win the next 3 then we’ll be right back in it. But 16 games if a fair chunk of the season to judge performance and while no one expects us to keep top 4 form going  and we will lose a few between now and the end of the season, due to the run we’ve had we now only need lower mid table form in the last 17 games to survive. That is more than achievable with a squad that is better than we had in the first 13 games. The other positive is we’ve dragged other teams into it. We would have to return to the form of the first 13 games to mess this up. 
 

Not time to relax yet but in a couple of weeks it could be. But in my several years of watching Derby we’ve stayed up from this position with worst teams than we’ve had this season. 03/04, 05/06, 08/09, 10/11 spring to mind. 

[Robert Earnshaws Workrate]

We'll be sound.

By the time we get a nice dour 0-0 draw away to Blackburn or Preston in mid-April we'll be mathematically safe.

[Ram-Alf]

9 hours ago, Jourdan said:

No longer in danger? That’s opinion, not a fact.

Now we have overtaken all of them. We’ve had an incredible turnaround. But that is why we can’t relax and discount other teams. If we can do that, so can other teams. We have to be on our guard and appreciate that things can change quickly.

 

This.

I've always been confident in WR and our upturn in form has shown my confidence was right, But as you say it can quickly change, This division is long and unforgiving, Our weekness is/has been not putting to the sword those below and around us, We find it difficult to break teams down who sit back and hit us on the break, Naive or lack of concentration, A miss here a save there has cost us a good few points when playing those who are/were in the same position as us.

Wednesday...3pts

Rotherham...6pts

Wycombe...2pts

Coventry...2pts

Huddersfield...3pts

QPR...3pts

Ooops not forgetting the dogs...2pts

If only aye.

Edited February 18, 2021 by James Pond

[TigerTedd]

1 hour ago, James Pond said:

This.

I've always been confident in WR and our upturn in form has shown my confidence was right, But as you say it can quickly change, This division is long and unforgiving, Our weekness is/has been not putting to the sword those below and around us, We find it difficult to break teams down who sit back and hit us on the break, Naive or lack of concentration, A miss here a save there has cost us a good few points when playing those who are/were in the same position as us.

Wednesday...3pts

Rotherham...6pts

Wycombe...2pts

Coventry...2pts

Huddersfield...3pts

QPR...3pts

Ooops not forgetting the dogs...2pts

If only aye.

Wow, that’s 21 points and would put us 4th.

to me though, that just goes to show that we are just a fraction away from being a quality team, and have been all season. We just needed to fix that last little bit, and all signs point to us having done that. The fact that if the season started when Rooney took over we’d be in the top 6 easily shows that. There’s no reason to believe that form will just suddenly disappear.

we’ve always been in a false position. Like Man City were mid table not too long ago. Did anyone really believe that’s where they were going to stay. I can imagine the manic version of @Jourdan on the Man City forum ‘it’s all over, tottenham have got this in the bag, this is an unpredictable league, so we’ve won 5 in a row, but west brim can be a banana skin.’

im basing this in more than blind faith. It’s not going to happen. We’ve getting closer to our true selves, (not quite there yet), and that’s why were rocketing up the league, while those around us have found their natural positions and won’t move around that much from here.

[Sparkle]

30 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

Wow, that’s 21 points and would put us 4th.

to me though, that just goes to show that we are just a fraction away from being a quality team, and have been all season. We just needed to fix that last little bit, and all signs point to us having done that. The fact that if the season started when Rooney took over we’d be in the top 6 easily shows that. There’s no reason to believe that form will just suddenly disappear.

we’ve always been in a false position. Like Man City were mid table not too long ago. Did anyone really believe that’s where they were going to stay. I can imagine the manic version of @Jourdan on the Man City forum ‘it’s all over, tottenham have got this in the bag, this is an unpredictable league, so we’ve won 5 in a row, but west brim can be a banana skin.’

im basing this in more than blind faith. It’s not going to happen. We’ve getting closer to our true selves, (not quite there yet), and that’s why were rocketing up the league, while those around us have found their natural positions and won’t move around that much from here.

We are on a par with Sheffield Wednesday this season and would you class them as being a fraction away from being a quality side? I don’t and we aren’t - this season the league is dreadfully poor again and in that we haven’t been able to score goals or genuinely look like we will tends to support that belief.

Rooney has managed to get us competitive and removed some of the non 90 minute types out of the club/side. He has increased our scoring ability mainly from set pieces. He is building from the very basics and seems to know what he is doing which is kind of nice. The quality of the players will ultimately dictate if we can become a quality side but I am sure we will very competitive.

Edited February 18, 2021 by Sparkle

[VulcanRam]

Enjoying the optimism on here, but I still think we're right in the middle of a relegation dogfight. Our form is good, but it's very tight margins at 1-0s. We're seeing a bit of luck at the moment (ref Andre's goal) that we weren't seeing in our poor run. These things can turn one way or another very quickly. Only a couple of weeks ago everyone was breathing a sight of relief and suddenly we found ourselves back in the bottom three.

What gives me confidence is I think Rooney is doing really well and we've been bolstered by the recent loan signings, who are already making a valuable contribution, notably Edmunson and Roberts on Tuesday and Gregory against Boro. They have strengthened us. 

I'm more optimistic that I was in January, that's for sure, but we ain't out of it yet. 

 

[Rab a dab doo]

The transfer window came just at the right time for us and for once we have 'seemed' to have used it wisely. 

The influx of 5 new players, more than most could of dreamed about has added depth and options to the team. 

We have obtained 'young' players wanting to impress and make a name for themselves and some who are well experienced at this level. 

All of this has been achieved on a 'balanced' budget with outgoings. 

Rooney seems to have a plan of the 'type' of players he requires (maybe not quite the quality he would like) and the sort formations and style he would like them to play.

The hard part is getting them to do it during matches (which must be frustrating for a player of his pedigree). 

[Rampage]

14 hours ago, TigerTedd said:

But the clubs were overtaking are on a downward spiral, were on a clear upward curve. 

there’s before Rooney, and there’s after Rooney, and after rooney, apart from the odd poor result, our form has been fantastic. 

so there really is no reason to believe we’ll suddenly become poo overnight. These things don’t happen randomly, the championship is not so unpredictable as everyone makes out, there are patterns. And the pattern is, we’re are heading upwards, whilst many around us are heading downwards, and there isn’t enough time left in the season for them to significantly change their trajectories to match our own. 

having all said that, I’m fairly sure we’ll lose to Watford. They’re on a great run too, and we made hard work of the bottom club. We’re still some way off that level. So it won’t be a sunrise when we lose, and I’m sure it’ll all be doom and gloom on here again. But our seasoned won’t be defined by a loss to Watford. If we win though, that would be a helluva result. 

6 points or even 4 out of the next 9 would be fine. Beat Uddersfield and at least a draw against Florist then any more is a bonus. Three more games and we should have an idea whether the new loanees have brought improvement or are just for filling in.

[Rampage]

3 hours ago, Sparkle said:

We are on a par with Sheffield Wednesday this season and would you class them as being a fraction away from being a quality side? I don’t and we aren’t - this season the league is dreadfully poor again and in that we haven’t been able to score goals or genuinely look like we will tends to support that belief.

Rooney has managed to get us competitive and removed some of the non 90 minute types out of the club/side. He has increased our scoring ability mainly from set pieces. He is building from the very basics and seems to know what he is doing which is kind of nice. The quality of the players will ultimately dictate if we can become a quality side but I am sure we will very competitive.

Wendies have scored as many points as us but have had six deducted. Bournemouth beat Rotherham by a single goal but did not dominate them. A few teams around us are on the slide. Wayne has got cover for every position and for different formations. I think that the signings are shrewd and some will stay with us. The tactics that Wayne uses will garner a good haul of points.

[Rampage]

There was NO January slump this year.

[Rammy03]

4 hours ago, Sparkle said:

We are on a par with Sheffield Wednesday this season and would you class them as being a fraction away from being a quality side? I don’t and we aren’t - this season the league is dreadfully poor again and in that we haven’t been able to score goals or genuinely look like we will tends to support that belief.

Wednesday have been the same all season. We just had a really poor start under a manager who hadn't a clue what he was doing. You look at the form since Rooney has taken over and wonder what on earth were we doing down the bottom.

[Ram-Alf]

6 minutes ago, Rammy03 said:

Wednesday have been the same all season. We just had a really poor start under a manager who hadn't a clue what he was doing. You look at the form since Rooney has taken over and wonder what on earth were we doing down the bottom.

Curtis Davies on the EFL on Quest pretty much said that "Cocu didn't really know the Championship and brought a style of football that suited other teams, Where WR has simplified the game"

[Rampage]

1 hour ago, Rammy03 said:

Wednesday have been the same all season. We just had a really poor start under a manager who hadn't a clue what he was doing. You look at the form since Rooney has taken over and wonder what on earth were we doing down the bottom.

Judging by the level of effort being produced under Wayne  there was a problem organising and motivating players for some reason under Cocu. If you do not work hard then I do not want you statement by Wayne has cleared up a few issues. I would like to see some comparative figures for Km run, tackles and blocks made etc.

[Tyler Durden]

2 hours ago, James Pond said:

Curtis Davies on the EFL on Quest pretty much said that "Cocu didn't really know the Championship and brought a style of football that suited other teams, Where WR has simplified the game"

That has to go down as one of the most obvious statements in the history of humanity

[Sparkle]

4 hours ago, Rampage said:

Wendies have scored as many points as us but have had six deducted. Bournemouth beat Rotherham by a single goal but did not dominate them. A few teams around us are on the slide. Wayne has got cover for every position and for different formations. I think that the signings are shrewd and some will stay with us. The tactics that Wayne uses will garner a good haul of points.

Seriously - our performances are on a par with Sheffield Wednesday the 6 Pts deduction only changes their place in the league table