The coronabrexit thread. I mean, coronavirus thread

[Chester40]

On 13/12/2021 at 09:15, Stive Pesley said:

That Spectator data is totally cherry-picked, and the other side of the fear-mongering coin - rather than driving fear, they are driving scepticism - and thus the polarised lines are drawn yet again. 

I could pick all the graphs apart for you, but it's Monday and I'm tired - and if people want to use those graphs to confirm their beliefs, I suspect I'm not going to change anyone's mind

Simply put - I agree with your first two points, but not your third. Modelling scenarios is their job. A scenario is not wrong or right - it's just a scenario. You can't use hindsight to say a model was wrong. It was right based on the data at the time (and whatever variables they applied to the specific scenario).

 

 

Isn't that why MORI polls have a 'within 5% accuracy' or whatever disclaimer.  To within what accuracy disclaimer are these models before they are just propaganda? Seems a huge technicality to say 'in hindsight they weren't wrong they were just only accurate predictions with the information we had at the time'.?

[Eddie]

1 hour ago, maxjam said:

Despite everything coming out of South Africa telling us omicron is milder than delta, deaths being well below last years numbers and falling, restrictions seem to be ramping up at a time when the Govt should be under severe pressure for breaking their own rules last year.

I guess they're now concentrating on the remaining 11%, helping the people who refuse to help themselves.

[Eddie]

1 hour ago, Carl Sagan said:

I don't tend come on this thread so I'm struggling to get me head round the last few pages. I think the country has split into two, and half the people are very anxious and tend to stay home and want to wear masks while the other half are fully vaxxed and just want to get busy living again. I'm in that second batch so go out most nights now in a desperate attempt to keep the economy going (which we need if we're going to pay for healthcare).

I work with people on the government SAGE and SPIM (modelling) committees who are trying to work out what's going on. The modellers tell me they haven't a clue. That not a single one of the mathematical models they've created predicted the plateau we've had over the last few months, so they don't know what's coming next.

Across Great Britain we have far left authoritarian governments  in Scotland and Wales who are keen on fierce state-mandated restrictions because it's their nature to want to control the population anyway. And then we have a libertarian on Downing St who would normally say live and let live, and have people make their own choices. Yet we see pretty much identical Covid patterns across GB, which make clear the restrictions don't make any difference. Diddly squat. So they're being introduced in England as a distraction from the appalling governance we see generally, as by scaring the people you tend to have them fall into line behind you. Note Boris has clearly been desperately rooting around to find someone ill from this omicron variant and claimed yesterday that "one person has died with omicron". But he didn't say from Omicron. It's almost certain that this was someone who died from something else and just happened to also test positive. 

You quite often post sense.

Not always though.

[Bob The Badger]

21 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Yep I'm happy to assert that the media are complicit in the scaremongering the Govt puts out. 

In the last week alone the media have been called out numerous times for er, lets just say 'misinformation'.  Misinformation that doesn't get corrected (despite 1000s complaints to Ofcom), instead it gets repeated.  Regularly.

 

The media?

Do you even know what the media is?

It's literally thousands of outlets and you just lumped them all together.

This isn't 1955, or even 1995, you know.

All you did with that response is shout from the rooftops that you have no clue how people get their news anymore and presume everybody is like you.

Newsflash: They're not. In FACT, most people don't consume their news in the way you're whining about.

Welcome to 2021.

 

[ramit]

Frohe Weihnachten

 

[alexxxxx]

11 minutes ago, Chester40 said:

Isn't that why MORI polls have a 'within 5% accuracy' or whatever disclaimer.  To within what accuracy disclaimer are these models before they are just propaganda? Seems a huge technicality to say 'in hindsight they weren't wrong they were just only accurate predictions with the information we had at the time'.?

That kind of modelling is different though. They are more likely linked to confidence intervals and statistics. 

Models are much more complex. The modellers will only have a limited understanding of how to calibrate the models, drawing on data from older epidemics/pandemics without the full scientific understanding about how relevant those assumptions are until later on. Therefore various scenarios should be used to test the sensitivity of different levers. 

A modeller would never characterise the results as 'predictions.'

[maxjam]

22 minutes ago, Eddie said:

I guess they're now concentrating on the remaining 11%, helping the people who refuse to help themselves.

Unless you side with authoritarians, then surely that is their choice?

We we're supposed to come out of this when all of the elderly and vulnerable were  jabbed.  Then it was the over 50s, then all adults, now its kids as well.  

With a vaccination rate of virtually 90% + the unvaxxed that have natural immunity following a bout of covid at what point does enough become enough?  Or are we really going to insist either through mandate or 'removing freedoms' that everyone else gets vaccinated as well?

[G STAR RAM]

4 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Unless you side with authoritarians, then surely that is their choice?

We we're supposed to come out of this when all of the elderly and vulnerable were  jabbed.  Then it was the over 50s, then all adults, now its kids as well.  

With a vaccination rate of virtually 90% + the unvaxxed that have natural immunity following a bout of covid at what point does enough become enough?  Or are we really going to insist either through mandate or 'removing freedoms' that everyone else gets vaccinated as well?

No natural immunity appears to be the next line being wheeled out...

[Archied]

6 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Unless you side with authoritarians, then surely that is their choice?

We we're supposed to come out of this when all of the elderly and vulnerable were  jabbed.  Then it was the over 50s, then all adults, now its kids as well.  

With a vaccination rate of virtually 90% + the unvaxxed that have natural immunity following a bout of covid at what point does enough become enough?  Or are we really going to insist either through mandate or 'removing freedoms' that everyone else gets vaccinated as well?

You value the things that are earned and fought for ,,,, seems like we are the generation that had our freedoms given to us by the sacrifice of others and as such are happy to lose them , in fact lots are in a rush to give them away

[maxjam]

26 minutes ago, Bob The Badger said:

The media?

Do you even know what the media is?

It's literally thousands of outlets and you just lumped them all together.

This isn't 1955, or even 1995, you know.

All you did with that response is shout from the rooftops that you have no clue how people get their news anymore and presume everybody is like you.

Newsflash: They're not. In FACT, most people don't consume their news in the way you're whining about.

Welcome to 2021.

You know I just posted that image as a bit of fun following something @Carl Sagan said. 

I have a pretty good idea what the media is thanks and how most people consume their media ?

I also can't help but notice the blatant and repeated lies seen in the MSM over the past few weeks that despite complaints and evidence to the contrary, all paint a very scary picture of where we are atm.

[Andicis]

The question that is on my mind is where does this end? There will **always** be a new variant, it's now an endemic virus. It's going to be like this every winter. Vax all the vulnerable, and then surely we have to get on with it? We can't do this every winter. There is no end in sight with how we're falling back on authoritarian restrictions every time. 

Edited December 14, 2021 by Andicis

[maxjam]

5 minutes ago, Archied said:

You value the things that are earned and fought for ,,,, seems like we are the generation that had our freedoms given to us by the sacrifice of others and as such are happy to lose them , in fact lots are in a rush to give them away

It certainly seems that way.

We've done what we were told for the past couple of years.  We have the vaccines, we have social distancing, we have masks - non of those things I have a problem with.  But mandating vaccines or introducing vaccine passports is a scary path to go down.  I'd rather make a noise now and help prevent them from happening than look back in the future at the freedoms we've lost.

[i-Ram]

How or what are they doing in Europe regarding this? We have members in Germany, Italy, France and Spain. Are those Countries in booster panic mode too? I am also wondering if the AZ jab is an unspoken issue here in the UK - i.e. more protection is available from two Pfizer jabs than 2 AZ jabs? 

[PistoldPete]

7 hours ago, Stive Pesley said:

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210513/coronavirus-lingers-in-penis-and-could-cause-impotence#1

?

It's the only thing that lingers on mine.

[Bob The Badger]

14 minutes ago, maxjam said:

It certainly seems that way.

We've done what we were told for the past couple of years.  We have the vaccines, we have social distancing, we have masks - non of those things I have a problem with.  But mandating vaccines or introducing vaccine passports is a scary path to go down.  I'd rather make a noise now and help prevent them from happening than look back in the future at the freedoms we've lost.

The problem, or rather one of them, with the virus is that it's invisible and not easy to quantify, understand or predict.

During WWII people banded together because they could see and understand a common enemy. It made sense, it was obvious what they wanted and how they were going to get it. Sticking together made sense.

At the moment governments across all ideological boundaries are banding together in their insiatsnce that this is really serious, but the people they govern don't quite understand it so many aren't supporting them.

They cannot see the enemy and they flat our don't understand the science, so they are rebelling.

That isn't to suggest that scientists fully understand the science because it's very early, just that those studying it are aware of the potential implications if we bat on regardless.

To think this is a conspiracy is anywhere on the spectrum of flat out moronic to being paranoid, to simply not understanding how many people can keep a secret.

Fauci said right at the beginning of this  (and I paraphrase) that he's rather be considered a fraud for over exaggerating and nothing happens, than negligent because he said nothing.

Pretty much every government and serious scientist on the face of the planet is saying 'seriously, we could have a huge problem on our hands here and it may get a lot worse' but still some people with zero scientific background and with no relevant information that contracdicts that other than a hunch or two are effectively saying....

 

[PistoldPete]

1 hour ago, Tyler Durden said:

I've just been skimming the news on the BBC app. On the Top Stories section out of the first 11 news articles only 2 didn't have any references to the increase in Covid cases.

The other 9 were about schools battling to stay open due to cases rising, West End plays being cancelled and ironically pubs facing mass cancellations.

Am sure the BBC are stoking up this semi form of hysteria themselves and are not helping the matter which is totally irresponsible and unhelpful of an alleged world class news outlet. 

Just the same on BBC radio news. Nothing but COVID. Way ovet the top.

[Andicis]

2 minutes ago, Bob The Badger said:

Pretty much every government and serious scientist on the face of the planet is saying 'seriously, we could have a huge problem on our hands here and it may get a lot worse' but still some people with zero scientific background and with no relevant information that contracdicts that other than a hunch or two are effectively saying....

Funny that, the government is so worried about this huge problem that they're having parties! 

Didn't Neil Ferguson get caught out shagging his mistress in the first lockdown?

These terrified politicians and scientists don't exactly act in a way that would indicate it to be a serious problem, maybe that's why people doubt their sincerity? 

[Bob The Badger]

There are people in this thread who think we should all get doubled jabbed, boosted and wear masks in public.

If we're wrong  and it's not necessary, you have a slightly achy arm and a you have to enunciate more clearly when talking in a public space.

If those of you that think it's unnecessary are wrong, hundreds or thousands, or even hundreds of thousands of people die (potentially you) and this drags on forever.

This is such a ridiculous argument to me.

Get vaccinated, wear a mask and then if this is all a waste of time, mock the duck out of us afterwards for you being slightly inconvenienced as opposed to being dead.

[Bob The Badger]

1 minute ago, Andicis said:

Funny that, the government is so worried about this huge problem that they're having parties! 

Didn't Neil Ferguson get caught out shagging his mistress in the first lockdown?

These terrified politicians and scientists don't exactly act in a way that would indicate it to be a serious problem, maybe that's why people doubt their sincerity? 

Good grief, I've drifted into a junior school debating competition. 

[Andicis]

1 minute ago, Bob The Badger said:

Good grief, I've drifted into a junior school debating competition. 

Just enquiring why it's unreasonable to doubt the sincerity of people ordering one thing and doing another? Wouldn't their own actions betray their true thoughts on the matter, rather than the public front?