Sith Happens Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Boycie said: Isn’t covid 15th on the list of cause of deaths that happened in Oct? Yep. I posted a video from the respected zoe survey which suggested that it wasn't as bad as suggested. Today I have heard numerous reports that the r level is reducing and the measures In place are showing signs of working. The media, including the BBC have been appalling throughout and seem determined to create panic. Good news doesn't sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sith Happens Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 8 hours ago, maxjam said: I know NZ were taking a tough approach to covid but, geez euthanasia ? having seen the scenes in Nottingham last night I reckon euthanasia might be an option over here. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyp Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 8 minutes ago, Sith Happens said: Yep. I posted a video from the respected zoe survey which suggested that it wasn't as bad as suggested. Today I have heard numerous reports that the r level is reducing and the measures In place are showing signs of working. The media, including the BBC have been appalling throughout and seem determined to create panic. Good news doesn't sell. I don’t know all that much about the Zoe survey. How do they add aysymptomatic cases into their figures? Do they rely solely on self representation or do they also conduct random tests? Do you know what date zoe figures refer to. Im personally inclined to believe / trust the ons figures over any other so it would be interesting to compare them like for like. I will do some reading as it sounds very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 20 minutes ago, Sith Happens said: Yep. I posted a video from the respected zoe survey which suggested that it wasn't as bad as suggested. Today I have heard numerous reports that the r level is reducing and the measures In place are showing signs of working. The media, including the BBC have been appalling throughout and seem determined to create panic. Good news doesn't sell. The problem is, the non-thinking boneheads who think that rules are for others and not them will take any semblance of good news as an excuse to treat the pandemic as over, instead of realising that it is people wearing masks and socially distancing, especially indoors, that is having an effect in the areas of highest infection. The most sensible decision taken so far regarding Tier 3 cities, I reckon, is the one taken by Nottingham to close off-licences and shops selling alcohol an hour before the pubs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boycie Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Eddie said: The problem is, the non-thinking boneheads who think that rules are for others and not them will take any semblance of good news as an excuse to treat the pandemic as over, instead of realising that it is people wearing masks and socially distancing, especially indoors, that is having an effect in the areas of highest infection. The most sensible decision taken so far regarding Tier 3 cities, I reckon, is the one taken by Nottingham to close off-licences and shops selling alcohol an hour before the pubs. Leave the pub at 8.45. Stock up, go back to the uni digs and party, cheaper too! Theres no grey areas is there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyp Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, jimmyp said: I don’t know all that much about the Zoe survey. How do they add aysymptomatic cases into their figures? Do they rely solely on self representation or do they also conduct random tests? Do you know what date zoe figures refer to. Im personally inclined to believe / trust the ons figures over any other so it would be interesting to compare them like for like. I will do some reading as it sounds very interesting. To follow up, it appears they don’t count or allow for asymptomatic cases. They also admit they have a self representation bias. They will therefore always estimate lower than the ons unless someone makes a rooster up. The figure for Zoe also appears to be in real time whereas the ons data is a around a week old. It will be interesting to see next weeks ons data and compare it to the figure Zoe provided yesterday. I suspect they (Zoe) will be able to predict the r rate with some accuracy but will always report a figure below the actual new infections figure. Its still a very helpful tool, it appears the ONS data is however the most accurate and reliable albeit a week behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyp Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 51 minutes ago, Boycie said: Isn’t covid 15th on the list of cause of deaths that happened in Oct? Unfortunately it won’t be that low down on the cause of death list again for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 27 minutes ago, Boycie said: Leave the pub at 8.45. Stock up, go back to the uni digs and party, cheaper too! Theres no grey areas is there? Stay at home during the evenings, buy your beer over the internet, have it delivered, drink it. A darned sight cheaper than going to the pub anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Sith Happens said: Yep. I posted a video from the respected zoe survey which suggested that it wasn't as bad as suggested. Today I have heard numerous reports that the r level is reducing and the measures In place are showing signs of working. The media, including the BBC have been appalling throughout and seem determined to create panic. Good news doesn't sell. The issue is it depends on how you define 'good news'. If everything stops growing today, and things held steady, then this disease would be claiming over 8000 lives per month. That is, even if it gets no worse from here, that is still an appalling position. There's no signs yet that the rate of increase of deaths is slowing, that's the one to look out for. As cases increase, the rate of testing starts to become a limiting factor, which makes it hard to ascertain whether the R factor is decreasing, and even harder to determine if it is actually below 1. Until it's below one, and stays there, there isn't really any good news to be had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 This was published in July. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53392148 and it was ridiculed by the usual 5 or 6 posters. As far as daily deaths are concerned, we have hit the 'worst case scenario' numbers about five weeks ahead of schedule. Laughing emoji please, @TexasRam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 21 minutes ago, Eddie said: This was published in July. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53392148 and it was ridiculed by the usual 5 or 6 posters. As far as daily deaths are concerned, we have hit the 'worst case scenario' numbers about five weeks ahead of schedule. Laughing emoji please, @TexasRam. Laughing emoji because it’ll make no difference what restrictions we put in place we won’t control it, it’s here and we have to learn to live with it. That’s been my stance since March and it wont change. They’re my views and I’ll stand by them if you agree with them or not Edward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 29 minutes ago, TexasRam said: Laughing emoji because it’ll make no difference what restrictions we put in place we won’t control it, it’s here and we have to learn to live with it. That’s been my stance since March and it wont change. They’re my views and I’ll stand by them if you agree with them or not Edward. So your position is that no evidence, despite the weight of it, can change your position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GboroRam Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Albert said: So your position is that no evidence, despite the weight of it, can change your position? If you put your fingers in your ears and hum a tune, it is easier to ignore the tales of those countries who managed to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Albert said: So your position is that no evidence, despite the weight of it, can change your position? Correct my Internet admirer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, GboroRam said: If you put your fingers in your ears and hum a tune, it is easier to ignore the tales of those countries who managed to do it. As you did with Corbyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyp Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 19 minutes ago, TexasRam said: Laughing emoji because it’ll make no difference what restrictions we put in place we won’t control it, it’s here and we have to learn to live with it. That’s been my stance since March and it wont change. They’re my views and I’ll stand by them if you agree with them or not Edward. Hey Texas I know we have discussed this many times over on this thread, times have changed and things have moved on though etc. Can you explain roughly what you mean by learn to live with it? I agree we are going to have to live with it, but what does this entail in your opinion and what are the positives and negatives, predicted outcomes, numbers etc? I know of the official (ons, sage etc) possible scenarios for worst case best case but have never really seen any figures posted on this forum relating to other possible scenarios. Not looking for a discussion on who is right etc. It would be interesting to find out what others think is possible other than the line “well anything would be better than the situation we currently have” Obviously we have Albert, who in my opinion does a great job at explaining how the Australians have reacted, and the affect the zero-covid approach has had. I understand that approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, TexasRam said: Correct my Internet admirer I like how you have, in a handful of posts, admitted the following: - You deny any and all scientific data that disagrees with your position. - Your position cannot be changed by any amount of evidence. - You believe people who answer your posts must 'admire' you, or otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 minute ago, jimmyp said: Hey Texas I know we have discussed this many times over on this thread, times have changed and things have moved on though etc. Can you explain roughly what you mean by learn to live with it? I agree we are going to have to live with it, but what does this entail in your opinion and what are the positives and negatives, predicted outcomes, numbers etc? I know of the official (ons, sage etc) possible scenarios for worst case best case but have never really seen any figures posted on this forum relating to other possible scenarios. Not looking for a discussion on who is right etc. It would be interesting to find out what others think is possible other than the line “well anything would be better than the situation we currently have” Obviously we have Albert, who in my opinion does a great job at explaining how the Australians have reacted, and the affect the zero-covid approach has had. I understand that approach. In short, live with it like we do with Flu. It’s now a “thing” we have to accept, it here, it’s around us. We have to accept and unfortunately there will be casualties, we can’t keep putting the brakes on our way of life for it. Even if a vaccine is found, again with flu we can’t believe it’ll be the magic cure. I ask all those who think I’m a clown, what’s the plan? What’s the future? I’m intrigued to understand the strategy to bounce back from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, Albert said: I like how you have, in a handful of posts, admitted the following: - You deny any and all scientific data that disagrees with your position. - Your position cannot be changed by any amount of evidence. - You believe people who answer your posts must 'admire' you, or otherwise. Just you Albert ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyp Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, TexasRam said: In short, live with it like we do with Flu. It’s now a “thing” we have to accept, it here, it’s around us. We have to accept and unfortunately there will be casualties, we can’t keep putting the brakes on our way of life for it. Even if a vaccine is found, again with flu we can’t believe it’ll be the magic cure. I ask all those who think I’m a clown, what’s the plan? What’s the future? I’m intrigued to understand the strategy to bounce back from this. Is that not kind of the approach we are taking now? Do you mean lift all restrictions and live with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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