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Sith Happens
19 minutes ago, Chester40 said:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

As an example, I am not a medical expert but there are interesting points made here (if I have the link correct) that just seem to not be open for debate. I haven't got the time, inclination or ability to really defend or focus on its ultimate validity...but it feels like any voices of restraint or opposition are just being swept away nationally by a tide of apocalyptic rhetoric with no giving of the opposing view. 

It certainly makes interesting reading.

Personally I think the governments of the world are really in that damned if you do damned if you dont scenario right now. I have not doubt if infections drop significantly in the coming weeks and in a few months it seems like a distant memory there will be a voice complaining that the governments too too drastic action, yet if little action had been taken and it killed millions those same voices would complain about taking no action.

I am glad the only decisions i have to make tomorrow are related to my work, what i will eat for lunch and dinner, if to have that extra coffee or not, is it warm enough for shorts, or do i go to my dining table work place in tracksuit bottoms? Who would be someone in a position of authority right now...glad its not me.

 

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The stats on confirmed cases are not a lot of use, more testing is being done, and of a presumably high probability set of people. Would like to see the percentages confirmed against total tested. But as they may be low and lead to complacency they won't publish those I suspect..

 

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18 minutes ago, Angry Ram said:

Just starting week 3 of as much isolation as possible.. Just ordered a jigsaw, not done one of those for 40 years. Should kill some time between jobs..

I'd say we're as opposite as they come on here, yet my 1500 piece jigsaw arrived yesterday. 

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1 hour ago, Chester40 said:

I think people are being remarkably compliant. 

We knew exactly what was coming. 

We didn't. That's the point.

1 hour ago, Chester40 said:

The hypocrisy and rule changing is mind-boggling to me.

Things have changed as the data/evidence appears to change. Because we didn't 'know exactly what was coming'. Nor do we still.

What is so difficult to understand.

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7 minutes ago, Angry Ram said:

Typical I only ordered 1000 pces.  Gonna  have to order a 2000 pces now. Oh the pressure. 

To be fair the plan is to try to occupy the kids with it mostly. 

Who am I kidding, it's a plan destined to fail. 

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1 minute ago, RoyMac5 said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52079922

In the letter being sent to 30 million households at an anticipated cost of £5.8m, Mr Johnson writes:

"From the start, we have sought to put in the right measures at the right time.

"We will not hesitate to go further if that is what the scientific and medical advice tells us we must do."

What a waste of money.

Surprises me Roy that whilst you are normally so unbelievably keen to play devil's advocate, you seem to take everything pronounced to you by Boris (often in complete contrast to what other world figures were saying) completely at face value. 

You asked me 'what is so hard to understand', well nothing is, if you have morphed into a nodding dog over night. 

Crack on just repeating every pronouncement the government jumps to tomorrow and hammer anyone who questions it. 

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4 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52079922

In the letter being sent to 30 million households at an anticipated cost of £5.8m, Mr Johnson writes:

"From the start, we have sought to put in the right measures at the right time.

"We will not hesitate to go further if that is what the scientific and medical advice tells us we must do."

 

Sensible approach imo. 

If we are hoping to keep CV deaths to 20k and we're only at 1k currently things are going to get significantly worse before they get better.  The letter is just preparing people to expect increased lockdown measures in the coming weeks.  If you can stock up (sensibly) on what you need now to be able to hide yourself away for a month, do so - the fewer people outside in the coming month the better.

Maybe if things go well we'll be let out for the summer!

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2 hours ago, Chester40 said:

I think people are being remarkably compliant. 

We knew exactly what was coming. 

We were told to carry on pretty much as normal. Until Friday teatime my kids were in school with literally hundreds of other kids, I was in work and so was their Mum...all very close to dozens of other people. 

But that evening I wasn't seemingly allowed to go out for a drink lest I catch this deadly disease (I didn't). By Monday - even though I had to be in work and my kids were in school as they had nowhere else to go - we aren't allowed to meet friends, go in the car anywhere, go out more than once a day etc.

The hypocrisy and rule changing is mind-boggling to me. I will be in work again tomorrow and mixing with a variety of different people, but if I want to go for a walk with my best mate, I could be fined. Everyone all seems to have happily swallowed the logic of this and anyone questioning it gets shot down. I have read quite a few articles that question the tactics and logic but generally people seem remarkably happy to just do as they are told. Myself included...but  I feel some of the outrage when someone like @Needlesh questions anything, borders on the hysterical. 

This is only my theory but if everyone follows the self isolation rules at home it should give more protection to people at work. 

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2 hours ago, Chester40 said:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

As an example, I am not a medical expert but there are interesting points made here (if I have the link correct) that just seem to not be open for debate. I haven't got the time, inclination or ability to really defend or focus on its ultimate validity...but it feels like any voices of restraint or opposition are just being swept away nationally by a tide of apocalyptic rhetoric with no giving of the opposing view. 

This is the @G STAR RAM view. Sceptical about the potential of the virus to kill people who wouldn’t have died anyway, for the very same reasons given. But there is no mystery. The stats on death rates are available. However, because it hasn’t really hit us yet, it’s too early for covid19 to be significantly effecting the numbers. But they will. And to suggest that’s it’s all been exaggerated and an over reaction is an irresponsible argument to peddle at this time.

In 2019 from the beginning of March, the weekly recorded deaths in the uk were:

11,044  10,898  10,567  10,402  9,867
the rate declines as we head into spring.

This year, we only have the stats for the first two weeks of March, when the numbers dying of Coronavirus were in the hundreds.

10,895. 11,019

the rate has increased 

when we start to get over 1000 or 2000 deaths a week, then the numbers will be clear for everyone to see. 

It is true to say that the estimated mortality rate of the disease will vary dependent upon the numbers tested, and the numbers testing positive, but in Wuhan they tested extensively and revisited their calcs, they still concluded that this virus was 14x as deadly as flu.

Previously healthy people will be killed by this disease. Please do not be tempted to fall into the trap of thinking it’s just a big over reaction. 

 

 

 

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