Forest (A) Match Thread

[ramit]

30 minutes ago, Patrick Rams said:

My memory might be going but didn't Keogh and Tomori play virtually every game in CD?

Was injured in April against Bristol City and was not ready for the upcoming Swansea game, with Evans replacing him

[Tamworthram]

10 hours ago, Saity said:

Then they’re not fans then are they ..?..

or are they fans when our form is better then they go to actually support the team or watch it on the box ? But can’t be arsed if we are going through a sticky patch ....wow...thanks for your fantastic support ??????

picking and choosing when to watch ....really..??? 

if we were national league I’d still go it’s not all about supporting when the going is good ...unfortunately these type of so called fans are the sort who will be first in queue for play off tickets etc ....but nowhere to be seen when we are having an indifferent time ...fairweather fans I think they call it ...

Not read the whole thread so my comments may be inappropriate. Apologies in advance if so.

I've followed the Rams for over 40 years, for the most part as a season ticket holder as I am still.

I've seen us win, lose and draw at the city ground and seen us lose twice at Wembley.

Whilst I only go to 4 or 5 away games a season now over the years I have seen Derby play at something like 30 or 40 different grounds (not bragging, I'm sure there are plenty of folk that have been to many more).

I could have gone yesterday. I had the time and money and might well have got a ticket. Does the reason that I chose not to mean I'm not a fan?

[RoyMac5]

1 minute ago, Tamworthram said:

I could have gone yesterday. I had the time and money and might well have got a ticket. Does the reason that I chose not to mean I'm not a fan?

Why didn't you go, out of interest?

[Rev]

1 hour ago, Patrick Rams said:

My memory might be going but didn't Keogh and Tomori play virtually every game in CD?

He came on for them in back to back games, first Keogh then Tomori.

[Tamworthram]

10 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Why didn't you go, out of interest?

Valid question.

Because, unlike in my younger days when I'm go pretty much every week home and away, I now chose 4 or 5 away games a season.

Always the last game (apart from last year's damned rearranged game), Birmingham, Villa and WBA (if they're in the same league obviously), I try to do a new ground every year (gets harder every year we remain in the Championship) and then 1 or 2 others.

Although older, I'm relatively fit and healthy and, whilst living nearer Birmingham, Nottingham is certainly not a difficult or expensive journey for me. I just choose not to go to that particular game any more.

I don't feel less of a fan now than I did when I'd go to most away games and didn't realise that attending the local Derby was a condition of being considered a fan.

[RoyMac5]

Just now, Tamworthram said:

I don't feel less of a fan now than I did when I'd go to most away games and didn't realise that attending the local Derby was a condition of being considered a fan.

I'm sure its not. I think that what annoyed some was the 'well I knew we'd get beaten, so what's the point' attitude.

[BondJovi]

7 minutes ago, Squid said:

yes maybe so but 1 goal in 27 league appearances (excluding playoffs) isnt exactly good enough - unless he finds form we need to look for someone to provide more goals

Another player who perhaps is short of confidence. Think of his play off heroics and then is still on the bench for the final. Starts pre season well but injury sets him back. Gets back in the team, scores a great goal..injured again. 

We had 5 good chances away from home. Marriott has to score one of his 3 at least. 

 

[Sith Happens]

26 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

I'm sure its not. I think that what annoyed some was the 'well I knew we'd get beaten, so what's the point' attitude.

Would never make a decision not to attend a match based on that.

For me its that time of year, i have a season ticket but i know for a fact between now and march/april i'll take a look outside on a tuesday night when we are playing 'insert poo team' at home and its wet/cold/freezing and i'll watch at home with my dad.

 

[Marriot Ram99]

As controversial as it sounds if Marriott ,Waghorn and Martin don't improve their finishing and sharpness in front of goal, next season I would get rid of 1 or 2 of them sign a new striker and have Rooney + academy/under 23s as back up to the ones we decide to keep.

They are all good players at this level, but all 3 have lacked a lot of sharpness in front of goal this season, if we had a Neil Maupay ,Andre Gray, Mitrovic ect up front we would have scored an extra 6 or 7 goals and be up there at the top.  We have lost a lot of points from wasted chances and that is partially down to injuries like Marriott's Injury  , lack of match sharpness and a lot of rotation, however if they don't pick up which I would seriously hope they do I would definitely buy a new first choice striker in either January or the summer.

 I rate all 3 especially Marriott who no matter what I will always remember for the Leeds and Man U goals he scored , but if they don't find form at some point this season there is no room for sentimentality as with more clinical strikers we could have won yesterday and the same against Hull , we can't afford to be so wasteful when we aren't that creative as it is.

[jono]

10 minutes ago, Marriott Ram99 said:

As controversial as it sounds if Marriott ,Waghorn and Martin don't improve their finishing and sharpness in front of goal, next season I would get rid of 1 or 2 of them sign a new striker and have Rooney + academy/under 23s as back up to the ones we decide to keep.

They are all good players at this level, but all 3 have lacked a lot of sharpness in front of goal this season, if we had a Neil Maupay ,Andre Gray, Mitrovic ect up front we would have scored an extra 6 or 7 goals and be up there at the top.  We have lost a lot of points from wasted chances and that is partially down to injuries like Marriott's Injury  , lack of match sharpness and a lot of rotation, however if they don't pick up which I would seriously hope they do I would definitely buy a new first choice striker in either January or the summer.

 I rate all 3 especially Marriott who no matter what I will always remember for the Leeds and Man U goals he scored , but if they don't find form at some point this season there is no room for sentimentality as with more clinical strikers we could have won yesterday and the same against Hull , we can't afford to be so wasteful when we aren't that creative as it is.

I am not a baby and bath water sort of guy so can’t quite agree, but regardless of who is playing, or who we might like, I do believe our front men aren’t sticking enough chances away. Chances are precious. There were solid chances yesterday and against Boro too. They went begging. The Strike is rate too low if we are to progress. And that has nothing to do with tactics or service. 

[King Kevin]

22 minutes ago, Marriott Ram99 said:

As controversial as it sounds if Marriott ,Waghorn and Martin don't improve their finishing and sharpness in front of goal, next season I would get rid of 1 or 2 of them sign a new striker and have Rooney + academy/under 23s as back up to the ones we decide to keep.

They are all good players at this level, but all 3 have lacked a lot of sharpness in front of goal this season, if we had a Neil Maupay ,Andre Gray, Mitrovic ect up front we would have scored an extra 6 or 7 goals and be up there at the top.  We have lost a lot of points from wasted chances and that is partially down to injuries like Marriott's Injury  , lack of match sharpness and a lot of rotation, however if they don't pick up which I would seriously hope they do I would definitely buy a new first choice striker in either January or the summer.

 I rate all 3 especially Marriott who no matter what I will always remember for the Leeds and Man U goals he scored , but if they don't find form at some point this season there is no room for sentimentality as with more clinical strikers we could have won yesterday and the same against Hull , we can't afford to be so wasteful when we aren't that creative as it is.

I think the problem with our attack is the same one that afflicts the defence ,we have no midfield.

[BondJovi]

2 minutes ago, King Kevin said:

I think the problem with our attack is the same one that afflicts the defence ,we have no midfield.

I would argue we had created the chances to win the game. Poor finishing cost us. Yes there are problems but we have created chances to win the last two if not 3 matches comfortably. Instead we scored 2 goals.

[chewbacca]

30 minutes ago, Marriott Ram99 said:

As controversial as it sounds if Marriott ,Waghorn and Martin don't improve their finishing and sharpness in front of goal, next season I would get rid of 1 or 2 of them sign a new striker and have Rooney + academy/under 23s as back up to the ones we decide to keep.

They are all good players at this level, but all 3 have lacked a lot of sharpness in front of goal this season, if we had a Neil Maupay ,Andre Gray, Mitrovic ect up front we would have scored an extra 6 or 7 goals and be up there at the top.  We have lost a lot of points from wasted chances and that is partially down to injuries like Marriott's Injury  , lack of match sharpness and a lot of rotation, however if they don't pick up which I would seriously hope they do I would definitely buy a new first choice striker in either January or the summer.

 I rate all 3 especially Marriott who no matter what I will always remember for the Leeds and Man U goals he scored , but if they don't find form at some point this season there is no room for sentimentality as with more clinical strikers we could have won yesterday and the same against Hull , we can't afford to be so wasteful when we aren't that creative as it is.

Agree. Second half Martin, Marriott x2 and Waghorn had pretty clear chances to put the ball in the net from inside the penalty area, I don't think midfield is as bigger problem as others suggest we are creating chances from the widths or through the middle, Martin had a 8 yard volley, Marriott 2 strikes from about 10 yards, and Waggy a header from 8 yards out...you have to feel at least 2 of them should of been buried...not clinical enough.

[S8TY]

1 hour ago, Tamworthram said:

Not read the whole thread so my comments may be inappropriate. Apologies in advance if so.

I've followed the Rams for over 40 years, for the most part as a season ticket holder as I am still.

I've seen us win, lose and draw at the city ground and seen us lose twice at Wembley.

Whilst I only go to 4 or 5 away games a season now over the years I have seen Derby play at something like 30 or 40 different grounds (not bragging, I'm sure there are plenty of folk that have been to many more).

I could have gone yesterday. I had the time and money and might well have got a ticket. Does the reason that I chose not to mean I'm not a fan?

So was you able to watch it on tv or on rams tv ? The original poster claims couldn’t be arsed to even watch it on tv and yet could’ve and I’ll say it again ...are you a fan ? Really?

my mates all claim to support London clubs and go to games home and away and of course away games for older fans might be too much but if it was on tv would you not watch it ? Because for me if the answer is no I’d rather go shopping or watch something else then you’re not really that interested are you and one of my mates who chirps up every time Millwall wins only notices they’ve won when he picks up the morning paper and so no he’s not a proper fan either ( this is not aimed at you this post Tamworth or my previous post) ....just so called fans who can’t be arsed to even watch it on tv yet come on here spouting crap ...why bother taking up there precious time posting negative poo when they wasn’t even interested to watch it.....on tv !!

[Marriot Ram99]

We need a Kevin Phillips type player who can just stick the ball in the back of the net when a chance comes, I thought Marriott could be that player and he still could be but he has been in very poor form since February apart from against Leeds, Martin has offered link up play but doesn't look good in front of goal and looks like he isn't at his best, Waghorn has also missed sitters and a few pens this season so it is becoming an issue.

Wouldn't mind seeing this as out attack come January:

 Martin Lawrence

        Rooney

Lawrence is good in front of goal most of the time and I think he could play well next to Martin with Rooney behind them.

We could bring in Marriott or Waghorn in for Lawrence/Martin when we need something different, or even play Rooney striker with Lawrence or Paterson in behind.

[RoyMac5]

42 minutes ago, jono said:

The Strike is rate too low if we are to progress. And that has nothing to do with tactics or service. 

I've not thought it's been that bad, but yesterday everyone seemed to miss just when you didn't want!

What is our 'strike rate'?

[Derby blood]

25 minutes ago, Saity said:

So was you able to watch it on tv or on rams tv ? The original poster claims couldn’t be arsed to even watch it on tv and yet could’ve and I’ll say it again ...are you a fan ? Really?

my mates all claim to support London clubs and go to games home and away and of course away games for older fans might be too much but if it was on tv would you not watch it ? Because for me if the answer is no I’d rather go shopping or watch something else then you’re not really that interested are you and one of my mates who chirps up every time Millwall wins only notices they’ve won when he picks up the morning paper and so no he’s not a proper fan either ( this is not aimed at you this post Tamworth or my previous post) ....just so called fans who can’t be arsed to even watch it on tv yet come on here spouting crap ...why bother taking up there precious time posting negative poo when they wasn’t even interested to watch it.....on tv !!

Great Post mate, yes if you support a club, why would you not watch the game on TV, or record it if you have family things to do. Or have to go to work, or even listen to it on radio, and all Derby fans I know would never not watch the Derby Forest game. Or at the very least keep up to date with the game,  Dcfc is in our DNA mate. 

[Jimbo Ram]

18 minutes ago, Marriott Ram99 said:

We need a Kevin Phillips type player who can just stick the ball in the back of the net when a chance comes, I thought Marriott could be that player and he still could be but he has been in very poor form since February apart from against Leeds, Martin has offered link up play but doesn't look good in front of goal and looks like he isn't at his best, Waghorn has also missed sitters and a few pens this season so it is becoming an issue.

Wouldn't mind seeing this as out attack come January:

 Martin Lawrence

        Rooney

Lawrence is good in front of goal most of the time and I think he could play well next to Martin with Rooney behind them.

We could bring in Marriott or Waghorn in for Lawrence/Martin when we need something different, or even play Rooney striker with Lawrence or Paterson in behind.

I am happy to stick with Martin and Marriott up top with Lawrence behind with Rooney pulling the strings in a deeper role, in place of Holmes....

[JfR]

31 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

I've not thought it's been that bad, but yesterday everyone seemed to miss just when you didn't want!

What is our 'strike rate'?

It depends how you want to measure it, but if we measure it as difference between xG and actual goals scored, we have 17 goals from an expected 20.95 (neither including the own goal in the Luton game as that wouldn't be included in xG calculation), which breaks down like this over the season so far:

If anyone's curious, Forest have 20 goals from an xG of 17.29, so are currently more or less the exact opposite to us in front of goal.

In terms of individual performances, Infogol also has xG stats for each individual player, which breaks down like this:

So if we use this system, then Lawrence (+1.65), Martin (+0.68), Shinnie (+0.55) and Paterson (+0.28) are the only players to have overperformed in their conversion rates, while Waghorn (-1.72), Dowell (-1.27), Marriott (-0.89) and Bennett (-0.64) have the worst conversion rates.

The bigger issue, though, is that there's an overarching trend to underperformance. Most of the players are only slightly underperforming. This would usually be fine as those players would be offset by players slightly overperforming, but this largely hasn't happened so far. To give you an example, it shouldn't matter that Bogle has no goals and a -0.28 difference, because Paterson balances that out by overperforming slightly and having 1 goal from a +0.28 difference. You would hope to see this over the whole team, but currently this hasn't happened.

[RoyMac5]

17 minutes ago, JfR said:

The bigger issue, though, is that there's an overarching trend to underperformance. Most of the players are only slightly underperforming. This would usually be fine as those players would be offset by players slightly overperforming, but this largely hasn't happened so far. To give you an example, it shouldn't matter that Bogle has no goals and a -0.28 difference, because Paterson balances that out by overperforming slightly and having 1 goal from a +0.28 difference. You would hope to see this over the whole team, but currently this hasn't happened.

Can I presume that you're saying the stats suggest the problem is we aren't scoring enough goals from midfield/defence?