Forest (A) Match Thread

[VulcanRam]

Wasn't too despondent about the result. Last couple of away performances have been better despite 2 defeats. On that performance, on another day we've come away with 1 or even 3 points. Thought Bielik moving back to centre half had a real effect on the game. 

Fans were very quiet after they scored which was a bit disappointing, not much support til the last 10 when we got right on top of them. Same at Hull. Surely it's when we're behind that we need to be louder? On the subject of fans, Forest were extremely loud (not surprisingly) and did what we can't seem to, which was to generate good noise coming from all over the ground.

Given the players at our disposal, Martin and Marriott is the way forward but both need to up their game a bit. Martin too often gives the first time pass backwards when he had plenty of space behind him or on the half turn to play progressively. But back it went and the break ended.

Marriott in the first half gave very little for the defence or midfield to hit. Against Boro he was regularly looking to make runs in behind but didn't seem to yesterday. Might just be me mind and where I was standing. And of course they both had decent chances. 

Rooney should make a big difference simply because we lack creativity. Holmes is struggling, Paterson we need to see more of as he seemed to strike up a bit of rapport with Martin in a couple of game they've played together, which means it's all on Lawrence's shoulders. 

On that front, I was incredibly impressed by Lawrence yesterday. Facing relentless abuse from all round the ground must have been hard to deal with, but he kept himself composed and put in a very good performance. His yellow could have been red, but if the ref was watching he was fouled once if not twice in the immediate moments before, putting him off balance. Good shows as well from Bogle (mistake aside), Shinnie, Bielik and Curtis. Roos made some good saves but having seen the goal back on telly I'm not sure he covered himself in glory there with his movement/positioning. 

It was a shame we lost as we weren't second best to them, but that's football. I enjoyed the day.

[superzak]

hindsight is a beautiful thing but if cocu had left Bielik in midfield and played Evans in clarkes place we would have come away with the result our play deserved. You cant legislate for mistakes of the magnitude of Bogles though

[JfR]

6 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Can I presume that you're saying the stats suggest the problem is we aren't scoring enough goals from midfield/defence?

It's one way of looking at it, but it wouldn't necessarily have to be the midfield or defence that have to step up, the difference could also be covered by having forward players that overachieve. A good example of this is at Huddersfield. They might not be doing brilliantly, but statistically Cowley's managed to get them overperforming from what you would expect from their overall play and chance creation. In terms of conversion rates, almost the entire team has underachieved, and in some cases fairly substantially, but this has been covered by the massive overachievement in shot conversion rates of Karlan Grant and Juninho Bacuna who have between them a combined +6.73 overachievement (12 goals from an xG of 7.27).

Wilson was a good example of this sort of player for us last season. I can't find the stats on him for last season, unfortunately, but there were several occasions that he would get goals for us that I don't think any of us would have backed any other player on the pitch to pull off, but which Wilson could do routinely. His stats from this season demonstrate this, 4 goals for Bournemouth from an xG of 1.45, a +2.55 difference making him by far Bournemouth's biggest overachiever in goalscoring (the second best has a +0.37 overachievement).

So either we need a lot more of the players to start performing slightly above average, or we need to get just a few of our players to overachieve to a level that makes up for the combined smaller underachievement of the others and to be real "game changers". It wouldn't surprise me if part of Derby's business in January would be to try and bring in one or two players that can do this.

[jono]

2 hours ago, RoyMac5 said:

I've not thought it's been that bad, but yesterday everyone seemed to miss just when you didn't want!

What is our 'strike rate'?

Honest Roy, I don’t know but Martin, Marriott and Waggy ( Bogle Holmes and Lawrence too ) have all had clear cut chances (plural in some cases ) in the last 2 games. All scorable and more than half chances. We’ve seen row Z shots, straight at the goalie or just fluffed. It’s a small sample size so probably a little unfair - it’s form, choices and luck I suppose, but we haven’t seemed to be killers in front of goal at the moment. It’s not a dearth of chances it’s putting them away. I’m hoping the diamond persists and the law of averages will tip our way because it is leaning the wrong way at the moment, at least in my unscientific perception of the last couple of games. 

[jono]

3 hours ago, Saity said:

So was you able to watch it on tv or on rams tv ? The original poster claims couldn’t be arsed to even watch it on tv and yet could’ve and I’ll say it again ...are you a fan ? Really?

my mates all claim to support London clubs and go to games home and away and of course away games for older fans might be too much but if it was on tv would you not watch it ? Because for me if the answer is no I’d rather go shopping or watch something else then you’re not really that interested are you and one of my mates who chirps up every time Millwall wins only notices they’ve won when he picks up the morning paper and so no he’s not a proper fan either ( this is not aimed at you this post Tamworth or my previous post) ....just so called fans who can’t be arsed to even watch it on tv yet come on here spouting crap ...why bother taking up there precious time posting negative poo when they wasn’t even interested to watch it.....on tv !!

ITs an interesting one, I think fans are different from supporters or followers, but there aren’t fixed rules

I reckon when you’re a fan you have an opinion based on knowing the players, watching multiple games and the result affects your whole mood between games. Followers just smile when we win or shrug when we lose. I don’t think it hurts. 

I don’t go to away games, I sometimes buy a TV pass though ( family life permitting) but ...what we do on the day with team selection, performance and result - home or away - defines my mood for a week or until the next game. Match day is special, whether I’m going or not. You can’t have reliable opinion unless you know both your players and have some experience of watching the game. But every moment of every game ? Those are a special breed, the die hards. I’m not one of those but I count myself as a fan. 

[RoyMac5]

18 minutes ago, jono said:

It’s a small sample size so probably a little unfair - it’s form, choices and luck I suppose, but we haven’t seemed to be killers in front of goal at the moment. It’s not a dearth of chances it’s putting them away. I’m hoping the diamond persists and the law of averages will tip our way because it is leaning the wrong way at the moment, at least in my unscientific perception of the last couple of games. 

I don't know whether it is or not, I suppose this is where the xG stuff comes in. But how many goals should we score from how many chances? At this level what strike rate is 'killer'?

[jono]

4 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

I don't know whether it is or not, I suppose this is where the xG stuff comes in. But how many goals should we score from how many chances? At this level what strike rate is 'killer'?

2 players in the same team knocking on the door of 20 in a season is my starting point ?

[RoyMac5]

29 minutes ago, jono said:

2 players in the same team knocking on the door of 20 in a season is my starting point ?

Plenty of time yet! ? ?

[Philmycock]

1 hour ago, VulcanRam said:

Wasn't too despondent about the result. Last couple of away performances have been better despite 2 defeats. On that performance, on another day we've come away with 1 or even 3 points. Thought Bielik moving back to centre half had a real effect on the game. 

Fans were very quiet after they scored which was a bit disappointing, not much support til the last 10 when we got right on top of them. Same at Hull. Surely it's when we're behind that we need to be louder? On the subject of fans, Forest were extremely loud (not surprisingly) and did what we can't seem to, which was to generate good noise coming from all over the ground.

Given the players at our disposal, Martin and Marriott is the way forward but both need to up their game a bit. Martin too often gives the first time pass backwards when he had plenty of space behind him or on the half turn to play progressively. But back it went and the break ended.

Marriott in the first half gave very little for the defence or midfield to hit. Against Boro he was regularly looking to make runs in behind but didn't seem to yesterday. Might just be me mind and where I was standing. And of course they both had decent chances. 

Rooney should make a big difference simply because we lack creativity. Holmes is struggling, Paterson we need to see more of as he seemed to strike up a bit of rapport with Martin in a couple of game they've played together, which means it's all on Lawrence's shoulders. 

On that front, I was incredibly impressed by Lawrence yesterday. Facing relentless abuse from all round the ground must have been hard to deal with, but he kept himself composed and put in a very good performance. His yellow could have been red, but if the ref was watching he was fouled once if not twice in the immediate moments before, putting him off balance. Good shows as well from Bogle (mistake aside), Shinnie, Bielik and Curtis. Roos made some good saves but having seen the goal back on telly I'm not sure he covered himself in glory there with his movement/positioning. 

It was a shame we lost as we weren't second best to them, but that's football. I enjoyed the day.

For about 5 minutes

[TommyPowell]

7 hours ago, Squid said:

yes maybe so but 1 goal in 27 league appearances (excluding playoffs) isnt exactly good enough - unless he finds form we need to look for someone to provide more goals

Case of selective stats,Not much better i know but 8 in 45 seems a lot better and that is full stats at Derby

ps     Waghorn   13 in 51

pps   Martin       13 in last  61

ppps Lawrence  14 in 79

[Marriot Ram99]

4 hours ago, Jimbo Ram said:

I am happy to stick with Martin and Marriott up top with Lawrence behind with Rooney pulling the strings in a deeper role, in place of Holmes....

That would be more conventional, but I doubt Rooney has the pace to get up and down as a box to box player and playing him as a 10 would get a lot more out of his goal scoring ability and his passing. Could just drop Lawrence, but he has played well last few games.

[Jimbo Ram]

2 hours ago, VulcanRam said:

Wasn't too despondent about the result. Last couple of away performances have been better despite 2 defeats. On that performance, on another day we've come away with 1 or even 3 points. Thought Bielik moving back to centre half had a real effect on the game. 

Fans were very quiet after they scored which was a bit disappointing, not much support til the last 10 when we got right on top of them. Same at Hull. Surely it's when we're behind that we need to be louder? On the subject of fans, Forest were extremely loud (not surprisingly) and did what we can't seem to, which was to generate good noise coming from all over the ground.

Given the players at our disposal, Martin and Marriott is the way forward but both need to up their game a bit. Martin too often gives the first time pass backwards when he had plenty of space behind him or on the half turn to play progressively. But back it went and the break ended.

Marriott in the first half gave very little for the defence or midfield to hit. Against Boro he was regularly looking to make runs in behind but didn't seem to yesterday. Might just be me mind and where I was standing. And of course they both had decent chances. 

Rooney should make a big difference simply because we lack creativity. Holmes is struggling, Paterson we need to see more of as he seemed to strike up a bit of rapport with Martin in a couple of game they've played together, which means it's all on Lawrence's shoulders. 

On that front, I was incredibly impressed by Lawrence yesterday. Facing relentless abuse from all round the ground must have been hard to deal with, but he kept himself composed and put in a very good performance. His yellow could have been red, but if the ref was watching he was fouled once if not twice in the immediate moments before, putting him off balance. Good shows as well from Bogle (mistake aside), Shinnie, Bielik and Curtis. Roos made some good saves but having seen the goal back on telly I'm not sure he covered himself in glory there with his movement/positioning. 

It was a shame we lost as we weren't second best to them, but that's football. I enjoyed the day.

Very accurate summary ?

[Jimbo Ram]

3 minutes ago, Marriott Ram99 said:

That would be more conventional, but I doubt Rooney has the pace to get up and down as a box to box player and playing him as a 10 would get a lot more out of his goal scoring ability and his passing. Could just drop Lawrence, but he has played well last few games.

Don't think he will do much running, just passing and giving us some composure on the ball....

[Premier ram]

2 hours ago, VulcanRam said:

Wasn't too despondent about the result. Last couple of away performances have been better despite 2 defeats. On that performance, on another day we've come away with 1 or even 3 points. Thought Bielik moving back to centre half had a real effect on the game. 

Fans were very quiet after they scored which was a bit disappointing, not much support til the last 10 when we got right on top of them. Same at Hull. Surely it's when we're behind that we need to be louder? On the subject of fans, Forest were extremely loud (not surprisingly) and did what we can't seem to, which was to generate good noise coming from all over the ground.

Given the players at our disposal, Martin and Marriott is the way forward but both need to up their game a bit. Martin too often gives the first time pass backwards when he had plenty of space behind him or on the half turn to play progressively. But back it went and the break ended.

Marriott in the first half gave very little for the defence or midfield to hit. Against Boro he was regularly looking to make runs in behind but didn't seem to yesterday. Might just be me mind and where I was standing. And of course they both had decent chances. 

Rooney should make a big difference simply because we lack creativity. Holmes is struggling, Paterson we need to see more of as he seemed to strike up a bit of rapport with Martin in a couple of game they've played together, which means it's all on Lawrence's shoulders. 

On that front, I was incredibly impressed by Lawrence yesterday. Facing relentless abuse from all round the ground must have been hard to deal with, but he kept himself composed and put in a very good performance. His yellow could have been red, but if the ref was watching he was fouled once if not twice in the immediate moments before, putting him off balance. Good shows as well from Bogle (mistake aside), Shinnie, Bielik and Curtis. Roos made some good saves but having seen the goal back on telly I'm not sure he covered himself in glory there with his movement/positioning. 

It was a shame we lost as we weren't second best to them, but that's football. I enjoyed the day.

yes , the continual baiting of Tom was tedious , did very well not to react , especially when taking corners , Tom seems to have grown up since the incident and his recent performances are of the Tom Lawrence that we thought we signed

[Sparkle]

44 minutes ago, TommyPowel said:

Case of selective stats,Not much better i know but 8 in 45 seems a lot better and that is full stats at Derby

ps     Waghorn   13 in 51

pps   Martin       13 in last  61

ppps Lawrence  14 in 79

I know penalties need scoring but does that alter the open play aspect of the goals scored

[europia]

4 hours ago, jono said:

2 players in the same team knocking on the door of 20 in a season is my starting point ?

Yes definitely needed for any prospect of promotion. Strikers firing blanks and defenders taking turns to gift goals is a recipe for mid table football at best.  

[S8TY]

11 hours ago, Squid said:

yes maybe so but 1 goal in 27 league appearances (excluding playoffs) isnt exactly good enough - unless he finds form we need to look for someone to provide more goals

I like Marriott but if he isn't the answer I'd like us to get Dwight Gayle in on loan...he knows where the net is and is proven in the championship ...just an idea 

[TommyPowell]

3 hours ago, Sparkle said:

I know penalties need scoring but does that alter the open play aspect of the goals scored

how many penalties has Marriott taken? were any of the goals that got us to the play off final penalties? For your information Marriott has taken 1 pen his entire career so far and that was for peterborough

[Sparkle]

14 minutes ago, TommyPowel said:

how many penalties has Marriott taken? were any of the goals that got us to the play off final penalties? For your information Marriott has taken 1 pen his entire career so far and that was for peterborough

I wasn’t even thinking about Marriott!

[SSD]

A good game of football. The result could have gone either way. I don't mind losing in that kind of manner, even against the red dogs. We tried to create some good chances, with better finishing from both strikers we'd have gone 2 up before Bogle made that awful mistake. Tom Lawrence was our best player, we need to keep him in that free role. To say Forest directing vile chants at him is an understatement, he was composed throughout and his play was positive. 

MOM was their goalkeeper, he was excellent. Best thing they've done is switch the goalkeeper's around. There's not much difference between us and them which is encouraging because I thought a few weeks ago Forest were way ahead, and I don't think they are.