Kernow

2 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

A £10 bet on Rotherham, Derby and Wednesday to all lose gets you 300 quid.

It's gonna happen init?

As poo as it would be for us to lose yet another game, those 3 results wouldn’t actually be that bad for us.

A Sheff Wed loss sends them down regardless and takes the meaning out of the game for them next week. A Rotherham loss keeps them 4 points behind with one less game to catch us.

We’ve done a good job in relying on other teams so far, and I don’t like the fact we have to do that. But there’s a good chance we could get even worse this season and still stay up comfortably, which is staggering.

It’s going to come down to who can hold their nerve that little bit more. I think all three of us are capable of getting something today given the fact that our opposition have lost motivation their previously would’ve had.

Sheff Wed & Rotherham know they can both go down today. We cannot. Hopefully that’s pressure that weighs just a little too much on their shoulders...

Me in my living room at full-time in the Brentford v Rotherham game:

Just now, Curtains said:

Incorrect.

Why is that incorrect?

They're on 39 points. We're on 43. If they fail to beat us, we finish on either 44 or 46 points (providing we lose against Swansea).

They beat Forest and they're on 42. Lose against us, they're on 42. Draw with us and they're on 43. That's less than both 44 and 46.

3 minutes ago, Ruud Aralliss said:

If they beat Forest they only need a draw against us if we lose at Swansea.

If they fail to beat us then they're below us, no matter how either of us get on in our penultimate games.

And breathe... for now.

7 hours ago, Mckram said:

Wednesday will get something against Forest.

Look at their head to head and Forest do not come off good. I think in the last 12 Wednesday have won 9, lost 2 and drawn 1.

Best we can hope for is that Forest scrape out a draw but they’ll have absolute zero motivation to do us any favours.  

All depends on how we do vs Swansea before we can say if Forest did us a favour or not.

As long as we equal Wednesday’s result, they’re down. If we lose to Swansea then it doesn’t matter if Wednesday draw with Forest, they’ll still be in a position where they have to beat us or they’re relegated.

The key to all this is making sure we approach games looking to actually win rather than hope other teams can carry on bailing us out.

2 minutes ago, Rammy03 said:

You get what you deserve in the end. If we deserve to stay up, we'll get the points required. If we don't, we will go down. It's that simple.

I think we’ve been well below par for the majority of the season to say the least, and staying up would be incredibly lucky.

We’ve won what? 11 games this season? We went through our spell of 6 wins in 8, so that means in the other 36 games so far we’ve won 5 times. It simply is not good enough no matter where we finish.

23 minutes ago, Coconut said:

Potentially even 1 point will keep us up!

These are all of the games we've failed to even pick even 1 point up in under Rooney, 10 of them are defeats by a single goal.

A single goal from a properly utilised attack / attacking midfield could end up being the difference between us staying up or ending up in League one. Knight & Sibley have contributed 3 goals between them all season, for players who showed such promise last season it's shockingly poor.

Derby            0 - 1       Preston
Sheff Wed    1 - 0       Derby
Derby            0 - 1       Rotherham
Rotherham    3 - 0    Derby
Watford         2 - 1     Derby    
Cardiff          4 - 0     Derby
Coventry       1 - 0     Derby
Derby            0 - 1      Millwall
Stoke              1 - 0     Derby
Reading         3 - 1     Derby
Derby            0 - 1     Norwich
Blackburn     2 - 1     Derby
Preston          3 - 0     Derby
Derby            1 - 2      Birmingham

Look at the Sheffield Wednesday and the Rotherham results.

We were all over Wednesday after beating Birmingham 4-0. If we got that first goal we’d like have gone on to win as SWFC crumble even more than we do, so they’d be down. Rotherham then beat us with a goal within the last 5 minutes or so, even if we held on, it pretty much keeps us up too.

On the flip side, if you remove our “unlikely” points such as wins vs Swansea, Norwich & Bournemouth, the point against Brentford etc. then we’d have been buried a while ago.

Just now, DCFC1388 said:

On a positive note though its stopped their momentum as well as their run of clean sheets. Hogan went off injured too. Also, like you say a win puts us within 3pts of them but I still think they're safe.

Yeah there are positive and negative ways to look at it. To be honest it makes no difference if we finish 21st, 20th, 19th, wherever. Right now I'd much rather the teams we're coming up against have nothing to play for. That wouldn't have been the case for Birmingham tonight regardless, however the fact we can pull within 1 win of them must fire them up a bit more, surely?

Swansea are essentially playing for nothing other than being at home in the second-leg of the play-offs. But they are still the 4th best team in the league so far.

Sheffield Wednesday could have been relegated last night. They're still alive. They could be relegated on Saturday. If they're still alive, they'll have even more confidence. If they go in to the final day of the season still with the opportunity to stay up, then I really fear they will have more desire than we would be able to muster.

1 minute ago, eezzeetiger said:

You are gone, and i don't feel any different.

Asking for a friend - would you take 22nd now?

I've thought about it long and hard, and you know what, I don't think I would.

The Forest penalty in the 98th minute is very, very frustrating.

Birmingham would have been on 51 points, not mathematically safe yet, however they would have been 8 ahead of us so almost certainly would survive.

That goal has not only probably guaranteed Forest's safety, but also makes Saturday's game vs Birmingham a lot more important. The goal could have knocked their confidence, however they've done pretty well under Bowyer. Now we have a situation where we are 6 points behind them. GD is -18 for them, -20 for us. A one goal win would bring us to within 3 points of them and level on GD. If they lost their next two against Cardiff and Blackburn, we would likely need to beat Sheffield Wednesday to give us a good chance of finishing above them either on GD or even possibly goals scored.

This could be seen as a good thing, as it allows us another opportunity to catch a team above us, rather than try to stave off teams below us. However given the form of the two teams, and the heightened importance of this game for Birmingham, I think we're going to be in for a hell of a lot harder game than we would have been if they had held on.

You'll miss us when we're gone.

The one, minor, tiny consolation in all this is that Krystian Bielik is going to be injured until at least October, probably not fully fit until nearly Christmas.

We will get half a season watching him absolutely boss the midfield in League One before he's sold. It's the only thing I'm looking forward to right now.

I hope Leeds absolutely smash Liverpool.

5 minutes ago, Topram said:

I don’t think people need to be worried because can anyone actually see this happening?

Then we would have a situation that could be almost as worrying if that were the case.

It’s quite clear Morris is absolutely desperate to sell. The Club isn’t realistically going to progress in any significant way unless the Club is sold to the right person. We were told the Sheikh talks started around March last year. Alonso has reportedly been interested even before that. That’s well over a year so far, and we still have the same ownership and the same problems.

Two publicly failed takeover bids tells the world how desperate Morris is to get rid, and will sell to whoever can say they have the right funds. How much longer will we go on before we find someone who is genuinely interested with the financial means to support it? And what of the lost time we’ve experienced due to being involved in closing stages with parties who were never going to own the Club?

It’s mid-April and I’m fist-pumping over the fact Birmingham have scored a last minute winner over Rotherham. Can we go back to 2014 please?

Today’s results have been far from ideal, but thank god Bristol City equalised, and to a lesser extent, Swansea.

Sheffield Wednesday are very unlikely to catch us now, nor are Wycombe. So it’s a straight battle to stay away from that 22nd place.

We might be benefited by the increased chance of Swansea & Sheffield Wednesday having nothing to play for by the time we play them. That’s the hope I’m clinging on to anyway.

9 hours ago, bimmerman said:

Plymouths a poohole lad, makes alvaston look posh, give it a miss if I were you

This is the most accurate post I've ever read on this forum. The bridge out of it is quite nice mind.

8 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

Also, just to complicate it but further proofs the point, Brum and Rotherham can’t both win this weekend, and I think there’s a couple of other fixtures like that you can Chuck in, so it’s impossible fir all of our rivals to get maximum points.

With 5 games left and teams around us playing each other, the permutations are still going to be very complicated.

Simplifying it as best as possible, if we win every game (as unrealistic as that is) then our chance of going down would be 0%. You can’t get more in our own hands than that.

1 hour ago, SillyBilly said:

 But it is not in our hands, is it? It is in Rotherham's, they are 4 points behind with 2 games in hand now and a better goal difference. So we are therefore categorically reliant on them to not do the business as them staying up is in their hands, not ours. That could change but I would hope the club are not as "asleep at the wheel" to start believing a falsehood as serious as that given the position we're in, we need to hope we put it back in our hands, starting tonight.

IF WE WIN ALL OF OUR GAMES THEN WYCOMBE, SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY AND BIRMINGHAM FINISH BELOW US AT VERY LEAST!!!!

This weekend’s games look pretty straight forward in terms of who we want to win and not to win, unlike last night.

I thought I’d look at them before we played so I’m not too negative or positive about our fate based on whatever the score is tonight.

Saturday:

Forest v Hudds - Come on you Reds!

Sheff We’d v Bristol City - Brizzle win

Stoke v PNE - Potters win

Sunday:

Rotherham v Birmingham - Brum win

Coventry v Barnsley - Tykes win

All the above, combined with 3 points tonight would go a long way to ensuring fans will be returning to the likes of Sheffield United & Fulham at Pride Park rather than Cheltenham & Cambridge.

Can't believe I'm still reading arguments about whether it is or isn't in our hands to stay up ?

If we win our next five games, there will be a minimum of three teams below us, even if our relegation rivals won every other game available to us. That's the definition of in our own hands, we would not need to rely on any results in games not involving us.

It's in our hands in the same way that it's in Birmingham's hands. They win every game, they're guaranteed to stay up.

It's all hypothetical anyway, we won't win every game, nor will any of the sides around us. There's a reason why we're all down here.

1 hour ago, Mckram said:

Raja Oktohari (the supposed Indonesian backer) put on his Instagram story a few hours ago that the Derby link is a ‘hoax’.

Well I’m assuming that’s what it says as there’s a Derby badge on a news story and he’s wrote hoax. 

This is the translated version of the story Oktohari posted on his Instagram story. He’s denying any involvement, there’s also mention of a club in Bali who have denied any involvement with Alonso despite his claims...

15 minutes ago, eezzeetiger said:

If you don't stay up....i will have nothing to do next season

You could always dedicate your time and energy to celebrating Forest's promising promotion charge?

I'm not sure what you'll do from the start of September onwards, but it's better than nothing.