Paul Warne

[Foreveram]

8 minutes ago, jcidaho said:

Actually Napoleon was pretty lucky with some of his battles. I.e. generals getting lost and randomly returning at the perfect moment. 

What was his xg rating like.

[Archied]

17 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

You are another poster without a clue about what I feel about Derby County. Stick to making comments about the football mate. 👍

Sorry but you constantly make it plain what you feel about derby county in your posts 

[RoyMac5]

8 minutes ago, Archied said:

Sorry but you constantly make it plain what you feel about derby county in your posts 

Well yes, how much I love Derby County. Any other points you are getting confused on are things like what I think about a player, or the manager or a style of play. They are different things you see. Is that plainer for you? I've only been a Rams fan for over 55 years so I know how fans can see things differently.

[Ram-Alf]

5 hours ago, Kernow said:

Less than two years ago we had about 6 players, no academy, no manager and had to play pre-season in temporary shirts because we didn’t even have kits. We were also put under restrictions, which still haven’t run out yet. So yes, I think getting automatic promotion in this timeframe is an achievement. A very good one, actually.

[ap04]

1 hour ago, Kernow said:

There’s obviously elements of luck in individual games but over the course of 46 games you can’t just fluke it.

Not sure what your evidence is but I hope you trust mine as I've worked a bit on this.

After 46 games the average percentage of lucky/unlucky games net for a team is precisely 9%. The maximum is over 20% -hard to believe I know. This is based on the standard +2 clear chances aggregate worthy of a win.

The average discrepancy to the chances/goal average is 0.35, the maximum over 1. These can all be positive or negative.

You understand what the above mean in terms of points, goals and league positions at the end of a season.

[Foreveram]

6 minutes ago, ap04 said:

Not sure what your evidence is but I hope you trust mine as I've worked a bit on this.

After 46 games the average percentage of lucky/unlucky games net for a team is precisely 9%. The maximum is over 20% -hard to believe I know. This is based on the standard +2 clear chances aggregate worthy of a win.

The average discrepancy to the chances/goal average is 0.35, the maximum over 1. These can all be positive or negative.

You understand what the above mean in terms of points, goals and league positions at the end of a season.

Are you being held captive, tap once for yes.

[Ram-Alf]

10 minutes ago, ap04 said:

Not sure what your evidence is but I hope you trust mine as I've worked a bit on this.

After 46 games the average percentage of lucky/unlucky games net for a team is precisely 9%. The maximum is over 20% -hard to believe I know. This is based on the standard +2 clear chances aggregate worthy of a win.

The average discrepancy to the chances/goal average is 0.35, the maximum over 1. These can all be positive or negative.

You understand what the above mean in terms of points, goals and league positions at the end of a season.

I fcuking give up...hello is that the Samaritans 

[Wolfie]

16 minutes ago, ap04 said:

Not sure what your evidence is but I hope you trust mine as I've worked a bit on this.

After 46 games the average percentage of lucky/unlucky games net for a team is precisely 9%. The maximum is over 20% -hard to believe I know. This is based on the standard +2 clear chances aggregate worthy of a win.

The average discrepancy to the chances/goal average is 0.35, the maximum over 1. These can all be positive or negative.

You understand what the above mean in terms of points, goals and league positions at the end of a season.

[Kernow]

9 minutes ago, ap04 said:

Not sure what your evidence is but I hope you trust mine as I've worked a bit on this.

After 46 games the average percentage of lucky/unlucky games net for a team is precisely 9%. The maximum is over 20% -hard to believe I know. This is based on the standard +2 clear chances aggregate worthy of a win.

The average discrepancy to the chances/goal average is 0.35, the maximum over 1. These can all be positive or negative.

You understand what the above mean in terms of points, goals and league positions at the end of a season.

Here are my stats that I also hope you trust, as I too have worked hard on them.

Teams that accumulate more points than 22 other sides in their division over the period of 46 games get promotion in the English football pyramid 100% of the time.*
 

*Stats based on a sample of over 120 years of competitive football where sides are ranked based on points-based performance.

[Archied]

39 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Well yes, how much I love Derby County. Any other points you are getting confused on are things like what I think about a player, or the manager or a style of play. They are different things you see. Is that plainer for you? I've only been a Rams fan for over 55 years so I know how fans can see things differently.

Things have gone well for derby last night and it looks very much like promotion, you’ve come on here and seen lots of happy derby fans and gone ,,,, right I will put a stop to that , it really is that obvious, it happens ALL the time 

there are some that are not keen on warne or what he brings but they are a different kettle of fish🤷‍♂️

Edited April 17 by Archied

[On the Ram Page]

1 hour ago, nick_d said:

With Warne's managerial background being at Rotherham (no disrespect to Rotherham intended) his managerial tactics evolved based upon managing a smaller club, less resources, less player-pulling power and often being the underdog  in any football match. As such his tactics were based not on how can I get my team to out-pass / outplay the opposition, but more on how to counter them. I suspect that he didn't have that much experience of matches where teams would try to counter his tactics.

I think this year we have seen Warne growing as a manager, we still see that he sets up his team to counter the strengths (real or supposed) of opposing teams, and also he has struggled where teams are countering our play of getting the ball wide by doubling up on our wingers.

However, he is becoming more rounded in his tactical approach, with a lot of the play being along the floor or attempted pin-point long balls down or across to the wing.
Yes, we still hoof it, but only when a side effectively closes us down. 

I was sceptical of Warne when he first came, in fact I started the first thread questioning his tactics after his debut home game and whether our possession-based team could deliver them, but this season (more so than his first) he has learnt and developed how to progress from managing a smaller football club with limited expectation to a bigger club with a high expectation level.

I am hoping for the same development next season if we get promoted, especially starting to mix it up in the midfield area which we will definitely need in the Championship. 
 

Excellent post. I think he is an intelligent guy and has gradually worked things out. Expect it to continue into next season.

[Archied]

29 minutes ago, ap04 said:

 

You understand what the above mean in terms of points, goals and league positions at the end of a season.

Yep ,,,,,,, duck all 🤷‍♂️

[Crewton]

31 minutes ago, ap04 said:

Not sure what your evidence is but I hope you trust mine as I've worked a bit on this.

After 46 games the average percentage of lucky/unlucky games net for a team is precisely 9%. The maximum is over 20% -hard to believe I know. This is based on the standard +2 clear chances aggregate worthy of a win.

The average discrepancy to the chances/goal average is 0.35, the maximum over 1. These can all be positive or negative.

You understand what the above mean in terms of points, goals and league positions at the end of a season.

[MaltRam]

43 minutes ago, ap04 said:

Not sure what your evidence is but I hope you trust mine as I've worked a bit on this.

After 46 games the average percentage of lucky/unlucky games net for a team is precisely 9%. The maximum is over 20% -hard to believe I know. This is based on the standard +2 clear chances aggregate worthy of a win.

The average discrepancy to the chances/goal average is 0.35, the maximum over 1. These can all be positive or negative.

You understand what the above mean in terms of points, goals and league positions at the end of a season.

You clearly do a lot of work on stats in football. I hope it brings you joy and wealth.

I personally couldn't give less of a monkey's about average discrepancy to the chances/goal average, xG, or any of it.

I watch football for fun, for the joy of that moment when the ball hits the net, the intake of breath as a defender is beaten. The satisfaction of winning a game. The shared pleasure of a successful season. 

I don't understand what you are saying, why you are saying it, or what joy you get from following football. 

Maybe if you diluted your intensely dry and rather hectoring stats lessons with a post or two about the actual football, or the Rams generally, folks would treat you with less disdain. 

[ThePrisoner]

[IslandExile]

7 hours ago, Kernow said:

So yes, I think getting automatic promotion in this timeframe is an achievement. A very good one, actually.

One chicken, two chickens, three chickens.....

IF it happens, it will indeed be a very good achievement.

[bcnram]

1 hour ago, Kernow said:

Here are my stats that I also hope you trust, as I too have worked hard on them.

Teams that accumulate more points than 22 other sides in their division over the period of 46 games get promotion in the English football pyramid 100% of the time.*
 

*Stats based on a sample of over 120 years of competitive football where sides are ranked based on points-based performance.

I think you are on to something there. 

[21CSchizoidRam]

2 hours ago, Kernow said:

Here are my stats that I also hope you trust, as I too have worked hard on them.

Teams that accumulate more points than 22 other sides in their division over the period of 46 games get promotion in the English football pyramid 100% of the time.*
 

*Stats based on a sample of over 120 years of competitive football where sides are ranked based on points-based performance.

Have you got the detailed spreadsheet analysis that underpins you findings. I wont believe it until you show all!

[Kernow]

1 minute ago, 21CSchizoidRam said:

Have you got the detailed spreadsheet analysis that underpins you findings. I wont believe it until you show all!

I’m typing it up now, just on the 1923/24 season currently. Bear with me.

Edited April 17 by Kernow

[Kathcairns]

2 hours ago, RoyMac5 said:

Well yes, how much I love Derby County. Any other points you are getting confused on are things like what I think about a player, or the manager or a style of play. They are different things you see. Is that plainer for you? I've only been a Rams fan for over 55 years so I know how fans can see things differently.

Ive been a fan for over 55 years, but i think you can be a touch sarcastic at times.