Summer Transfer Suggestion Thread 2023

[DCFC1388]

19 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

WARNING! This will be a long read.

Summary, for those who don't like to read:
I've assumed Knight and Bielik are sold, with no other first team departures.
We still need to fill the following positions: RCB, RWB, LWB, SS/AM, CF, CF. Suggestions for these roles are...
RCB: Matty Pennington (out of contract, from Shrewsbury)
RWB/LWB: Tom Hamer (Burton)
SS: Andy Moran (loan, from Brighton)
CF: George Hirst (Leicester)
CF: Conor Washington (Rotherham)


I would argue the main reason for our lack of success last season was down to quantity of chances created. We were heavily reliant on crosses from Hourihane and Mendez-Laing and set pieces from Hourihane. Whilst McGoldrick, Sibley, Bird, Knight and Barkhuizen chipped in with a few, we need to be looking at 40-50% more this season.

We have partially improved on that by signing two wing backs who love to get the ball in the box for attackers. Between our full backs last season, we were averaging roughly 2 key pass per game, only slightly better than what Hourihane was achieving by himself. Ward averaged 2.1 per 90 last season, whilst Elder averaged 1.7 in Hull's promotion season. That's almost twice the improvement on what we had last season in the wide areas. This is also before we add depth to these positions - either someone who covers both wing back positions, or with them also covering CB (such as Jaden Brown being a LWB covering CB, or Harding being a CB covering RWB).

Contrary to popular belief, our goal contributions from our midfielders are fine. Bird and Hourihane got a combined 25 in all competitions last season, whereas all of Plymouth's combined got 23 and Ipswich's got 28. With Smith and Thompson (or a new signing) chipping in with a couple as well, we're well set. You could argue we could do with someone else off the bench with more end product. Jensen Weir (Brighton) and Owen Moxon (Carlisle) would be high up my list.

It's no secret that we need more goals from our defenders, but Nelson isn't the answer. Cashin, Forsyth, Nelson and Rooney made a combined 5 goal contributions last season (11789 minutes played).
Plymouth's CBs had 14 contributions (14697 minutes) and Ipswich's also had 14 (13059 minutes). We definitely need to get an aerially dominant CB who is a threat from set pieces to make up some of the difference. Hopefully, Cashin can improve this part of his game too.

We're also desperate for at least 3 additions in the attacking positions. Plymouth got 109 goal contributions from playerss predominantly playing in the front 3 last season (15815 minutes) and Ipswich got 106 (14875 minutes).
Since we only have Collins, Mendez-Laing, Barkhuizen and Sibley left, our remaining forwards got 52 goal contributions from 12394 minutes, although that includes 3 of those players also covering at full back. Remove those games and it's roughly 45 in 10500 minutes.
Whilst Collins and Barkhuizen's contributions per 90 were on the low side, they're perfectly suited for backup roles. Sibley's contribution was also relatively low, but with a consistent run in his best positions, and more creativity in the rest of the team, I would back him to  at least double his output next season if given the same amount of game time (12 goals and 4 assists). He could easily achieve over 20 goal contributions if we get the other additions in the forward area right.
Our two most important signings this summer will be in the attacking area. One CF and one SS/AM capable of getting close to 50 contributions between them. We'll also need a 2nd choice CF, capable of 15  contributions in 1500-2000 minutes (Cosgrove got 14 in 1692 minutes as 3rd choice CF for Plymouth).

The squad size will cater for giving some minutes to promising U21s: such as Moloney (LWB), DRobinson and Hawkins (CM), Davidson (SS) and Brown (CF)

Now back up to the top to see my actual suggestions for each positions needed.

Really good post, although i do think you're short in centre mid. Last season we missed an 'enforcer' type centre mid which we need anyway, you have then not got a replacement for Knight.

We need 3 more defenders, an out & out CB & wing back & then 1 more who can play CB & wingback (Harding?).

CDM - enforcer, tackler, nasty

CM - box to box, Knight replacement (Brannagan?)

1x CAM/W - someone who can play in the 10 in a 3421 or wide in a 343

1x CAM/FWD - as above, can play upfront or in the 10 like McGoldrick could (Washington?)

2x FWD - 1 being a physical presence up top with abit of pace (JCH/Ladapo) and 1 who is off the shoulder, poacher who works in a 2 but can press (May/Bonis)

[Ghost of Clough]

1 hour ago, DCFC1388 said:

Really good post, although i do think you're short in centre mid. Last season we missed an 'enforcer' type centre mid which we need anyway, you have then not got a replacement for Knight.

We need 3 more defenders, an out & out CB & wing back & then 1 more who can play CB & wingback (Harding?).

CDM - enforcer, tackler, nasty

CM - box to box, Knight replacement (Brannagan?)

1x CAM/W - someone who can play in the 10 in a 3421 or wide in a 343

1x CAM/FWD - as above, can play upfront or in the 10 like McGoldrick could (Washington?)

2x FWD - 1 being a physical presence up top with abit of pace (JCH/Ladapo) and 1 who is off the shoulder, poacher who works in a 2 but can press (May/Bonis)

Last season we alternated between 2 CMs and 3. With us switching to 3421 this season, we only need 4 CMs, with cover from the academy (DRobinson amd Hawkins). You're suggesting 6(!!!) First team CMs for just 2 positions. That's at least 2 CMs sitting at home every game because they can't get into the squad.

As a team, we made more defensive actions per game than Ipswich. Bird made just as many contributions per 90 as Morsy and Evans.

In terms of goals conceded, we were 10 worse than Ipswich - 6 from counter attacks. This is where we needed to improve most, and was identified by many. By pushing high up the pitch and being so open, our aging and slow CBs were left exposed. Adequately addressing this issue further reduces the need change the midfield.

I say 2 defensive players as Hamer covers RWB, LWB, and CB. That leaves just a first choice CB. We still have Rooney, Sibley, Smith, Barkhuizen, Mendez-Laing and Forsyth who can fill in at wing-back in an emergency too.

You've got 1 too many players in your front 3 positions. The target number is 7 and we already have Collins, Mendez-Laing, Barkhuizen and Sibley. That means 3 spaces (1 AM/SS and 2 CFs). Washington would be a CF rather than being a 10.

[DCFC1388]

49 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Last season we alternated between 2 CMs and 3. With us switching to 3421 this season, we only need 4 CMs, with cover from the academy (DRobinson amd Hawkins). You're suggesting 6(!!!) First team CMs for just 2 positions. That's at least 2 CMs sitting at home every game because they can't get into the squad.

As a team, we made more defensive actions per game than Ipswich. Bird made just as many contributions per 90 as Morsy and Evans.

In terms of goals conceded, we were 10 worse than Ipswich - 6 from counter attacks. This is where we needed to improve most, and was identified by many. By pushing high up the pitch and being so open, our aging and slow CBs were left exposed. Adequately addressing this issue further reduces the need change the midfield.

I say 2 defensive players as Hamer covers RWB, LWB, and CB. That leaves just a first choice CB. We still have Rooney, Sibley, Smith, Barkhuizen, Mendez-Laing and Forsyth who can fill in at wing-back in an emergency too.

You've got 1 too many players in your front 3 positions. The target number is 7 and we already have Collins, Mendez-Laing, Barkhuizen and Sibley. That means 3 spaces (1 AM/SS and 2 CFs). Washington would be a CF rather than being a 10.

I think 5 centre mids are needed -

Bird Smith Hourihane then an enforcer & a box to box.

I think Rooney & Thompson will/need to go out on loan.

I do think 1 of Sibley & Barkhuizen will go this summer, maybe even both. 

[Foreveram]

3 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

WARNING! This will be a long read.

Summary, for those who don't like to read:
I've assumed Knight and Bielik are sold, with no other first team departures.
We still need to fill the following positions: RCB, RWB, LWB, SS/AM, CF, CF. Suggestions for these roles are...
RCB: Matty Pennington (out of contract, from Shrewsbury)
RWB/LWB: Tom Hamer (Burton)
SS: Andy Moran (loan, from Brighton)
CF: George Hirst (Leicester)
CF: Conor Washington (Rotherham)


I would argue the main reason for our lack of success last season was down to quantity of chances created. We were heavily reliant on crosses from Hourihane and Mendez-Laing and set pieces from Hourihane. Whilst McGoldrick, Sibley, Bird, Knight and Barkhuizen chipped in with a few, we need to be looking at 40-50% more this season.

We have partially improved on that by signing two wing backs who love to get the ball in the box for attackers. Between our full backs last season, we were averaging roughly 2 key pass per game, only slightly better than what Hourihane was achieving by himself. Ward averaged 2.1 per 90 last season, whilst Elder averaged 1.7 in Hull's promotion season. That's almost twice the improvement on what we had last season in the wide areas. This is also before we add depth to these positions - either someone who covers both wing back positions, or with them also covering CB (such as Jaden Brown being a LWB covering CB, or Harding being a CB covering RWB).

Contrary to popular belief, our goal contributions from our midfielders are fine. Bird and Hourihane got a combined 25 in all competitions last season, whereas all of Plymouth's combined got 23 and Ipswich's got 28. With Smith and Thompson (or a new signing) chipping in with a couple as well, we're well set. You could argue we could do with someone else off the bench with more end product. Jensen Weir (Brighton) and Owen Moxon (Carlisle) would be high up my list.

It's no secret that we need more goals from our defenders, but Nelson isn't the answer. Cashin, Forsyth, Nelson and Rooney made a combined 5 goal contributions last season (11789 minutes played).
Plymouth's CBs had 14 contributions (14697 minutes) and Ipswich's also had 14 (13059 minutes). We definitely need to get an aerially dominant CB who is a threat from set pieces to make up some of the difference. Hopefully, Cashin can improve this part of his game too.

We're also desperate for at least 3 additions in the attacking positions. Plymouth got 109 goal contributions from playerss predominantly playing in the front 3 last season (15815 minutes) and Ipswich got 106 (14875 minutes).
Since we only have Collins, Mendez-Laing, Barkhuizen and Sibley left, our remaining forwards got 52 goal contributions from 12394 minutes, although that includes 3 of those players also covering at full back. Remove those games and it's roughly 45 in 10500 minutes.
Whilst Collins and Barkhuizen's contributions per 90 were on the low side, they're perfectly suited for backup roles. Sibley's contribution was also relatively low, but with a consistent run in his best positions, and more creativity in the rest of the team, I would back him to  at least double his output next season if given the same amount of game time (12 goals and 4 assists). He could easily achieve over 20 goal contributions if we get the other additions in the forward area right.
Our two most important signings this summer will be in the attacking area. One CF and one SS/AM capable of getting close to 50 contributions between them. We'll also need a 2nd choice CF, capable of 15  contributions in 1500-2000 minutes (Cosgrove got 14 in 1692 minutes as 3rd choice CF for Plymouth).

The squad size will cater for giving some minutes to promising U21s: such as Moloney (LWB), DRobinson and Hawkins (CM), Davidson (SS) and Brown (CF)

Now back up to the top to see my actual suggestions for each positions needed.

Not long if you skim read 😉

[DCFC1388]

We need at least 7 more players not including outgoings (excluding Bielik).

I can see us being pretty flexible on a 3421, 343, 352, 3142, 3412. Warne does like 2 upfront though so possibly the 352/3412.

 

 

Edited June 25, 2023 by DCFC1388

[Rampant]

I'm not keen on loaning out either Rooney or Thompson as I think both are good enough to be in the starting XI or on the bench. 

[Ghost of Clough]

15 minutes ago, DCFC1388 said:

I think 5 centre mids are needed -

Bird Smith Hourihane then an enforcer & a box to box.

I think Rooney & Thompson will/need to go out on loan.

I do think 1 of Sibley & Barkhuizen will go this summer, maybe even both. 

4th choice is barely used in a 2 man midfield. Both Plymouth and Ipswich used 4 first team CMs and supplemented it with the academy. Ipswich promoted 1 CM to their first team after impressing, giving them 5 first team CMs.

Plymouth's 4th choice featured for just 1010 minutes with Ipswich's 1156 minutes. It felt like Thompson hardly stepped foot on the pitch for us last season, but he was only a little bit behind them with 842 minutes. '5th choice' will play considerably less, which is why it'll be a U21 player filling that role.

As I've stated already, you don't need an 'enforcer' in this league. Ipswich's first choice CMs were Evans and Morsy. Respectively, they made 5.0 and 4.6 defensive actions per 90. Plymouth's were Houghton and Butcher who made 4.4 and 5.0. Compared with our CM options which are: Tommo (5.5), Bird (4.9), Hourihane (4.1), Smith (4.1) and Sibley (3.9).

You're making the assumption we would allow 4 players leave without any credible link suggesting they will be leaving. Of course, if anyone other than Knight and Bielik are sold, they would have to be replaced.

Don't forget, Warne has stated he wants a 20-22 man squad. That means we won't have 6 CBs, 5 CMs, or 8 forwards.

[Blondest Goat]

13 minutes ago, Rampant said:

I'm not keen on loaning out either Rooney or Thompson as I think both are good enough to be in the starting XI or on the bench. 

There's absolutely nothing about Warnes treatment of these two last season that suggests he agrees with you.  At least not in a team that is aiming for automatic promotion.

Edited June 25, 2023 by Blondest Goat

[ram59]

1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

 

In terms of goals conceded, we were 10 worse than Ipswich - 6 from counter attacks. This is where we needed to improve most, and was identified by many. By pushing high up the pitch and being so open, our aging and slow CBs were left exposed. Adequately addressing this issue further reduces the need change the midfield.

 

How many of those 6 from counter attacks were from our corners? Our slow CBs shouldn't be accountable in those cases, as they were probably the most advanced players at the time.

[Ghost of Clough]

7 minutes ago, ram59 said:

How many of those 6 from counter attacks were from our corners? Our slow CBs shouldn't be accountable in those cases, as they were probably the most advanced players at the time.

Pacey CBs would be able to get because quicker. I recall one corner which we conceded from, where Collins had managed to sprint all the way back to our own box before at least one of our CBs had returned to our own half. Pacier CBs should also reduce the number of penalties and freekicks given away in dangerous positions.

[DCFC1388]

31 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

4th choice is barely used in a 2 man midfield. Both Plymouth and Ipswich used 4 first team CMs and supplemented it with the academy. Ipswich promoted 1 CM to their first team after impressing, giving them 5 first team CMs.

Plymouth's 4th choice featured for just 1010 minutes with Ipswich's 1156 minutes. It felt like Thompson hardly stepped foot on the pitch for us last season, but he was only a little bit behind them with 842 minutes. '5th choice' will play considerably less, which is why it'll be a U21 player filling that role.

As I've stated already, you don't need an 'enforcer' in this league. Ipswich's first choice CMs were Evans and Morsy. Respectively, they made 5.0 and 4.6 defensive actions per 90. Plymouth's were Houghton and Butcher who made 4.4 and 5.0. Compared with our CM options which are: Tommo (5.5), Bird (4.9), Hourihane (4.1), Smith (4.1) and Sibley (3.9).

You're making the assumption we would allow 4 players leave without any credible link suggesting they will be leaving. Of course, if anyone other than Knight and Bielik are sold, they would have to be replaced.

Don't forget, Warne has stated he wants a 20-22 man squad. That means we won't have 6 CBs, 5 CMs, or 8 forwards.

The list i put up would be a squad of 25 including Thompson & Rooney as youth players ready to step up. 

You are assuming we will play the same way as Plymouth & Ipswich did? It might be worth looking at the figures of Warne's Rotherham team that got automatics for a better comparison rather than Ipswich/Plymouth?

There were plenty of games last season where we needed an enforcer type in midfield, just because Plymouth & Ipswich didnt it doesnt mean the way we play doesnt or wont require it. Also, when I say enforcer, I do mean someone like Morsey who is a nasty player who breaks up play.

It could be that we bring in a wing back who can play both sides, or centre back as well. Maybe the 'enforcer' could play centre back too, or a striker playing CAM. There are ways to keep the squad numbers down but have actual 1st team quality. 

If we go 352, thats 3 cms, having 4 isnt enough for 3 positions. Warne played versions of 352 alot at Rotherham.

 

Edited June 25, 2023 by DCFC1388

[JABBA]

1 hour ago, Rampant said:

I'm not keen on loaning out either Rooney or Thompson as I think both are good enough to be in the starting XI or on the bench. 

If Thompson and Rooney are still in the Matchday squad when the transfer window closes then we haven’t strengthened enough.

[Ghost of Clough]

12 minutes ago, DCFC1388 said:

The list i put up would be a squad of 25 including Thompson & Rooney as youth players ready to step up. 

You are assuming we will play the same way as Plymouth & Ipswich did? It might be worth looking at the figures of Warne's Rotherham team that got automatics for a better comparison rather than Ipswich/Plymouth?

There were plenty of games last season where we needed an enforcer type in midfield, just because Plymouth & Ipswich didnt it doesnt mean the way we play doesnt or wont require it. Also, when I say enforcer, I do mean someone like Morsey who is a nasty player who breaks up play.

It could be that we bring in a wing back who can play both sides, or centre back as well. Maybe the 'enforcer' could play centre back too, or a striker playing CAM. There are ways to keep the squad numbers down but have actual 1st team quality. 

If we go 352, thats 3 cms, having 4 isnt enough for 3 positions. Warne played versions of 352 alot at Rotherham.

 

My assumption is based on the players we have, the llayers available in the market, the comments made by the players themselves, and Warne wanting a back 3. It'll be 3421.

Plymouth mostly played 3421 and deviatedfor a few games here and there due to player availability. Ipswich played half of their games with 4231 and the other half with 3421.

We won't be playing 3412 (as per Sheff Weds), as that means we need to sign 3 top CFs and an exceptional AM/SS, as well as offloading Mendez-Laing and Barkhuizen who'll no longer fit in. Similar for 352, except instead doff 1 AM/SS it'll be a CM who we need to sign.

Warne had used a lot of different formations in his time at Rotherham, starting with 442 in 2016 and changing every season until he ended up woth 352.

16/17 - 442 / 4411

17/18 - 442 / 433

18/19 - 433

19/20 - 433 / 442

20/21 - pretty much every formation. Mostly 352 

21/22 - 352

22/23 - 352

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

6 minutes ago, JABBA said:

If Thompson and Rooney are still in the Matchday squad when the transfer window closes then we haven’t strengthened enough.

Rooney showed enough to me to find himself getting first team football as a sub, or occasional starter through injury..  He looks comfortable at this level and comfortable on the ball.  Thompson won't get games.  He probably needs to rebuild elsewhere where demand for results isn't at such a premium.     

[Rampant]

1 hour ago, Blondest Goat said:

There's absolutely nothing about Warnes treatment of these two last season that suggests he agrees with you.  At least not in a team that is aiming for automatic promotion.

Oh I realise that. Maybe I rate Thompson higher than others but I felt he didn't look out of place in the Championship for the most part and given the opportunity he could be an important part of our season.

(I'm not his agent btw)

[Caerphilly Ram]

19 minutes ago, Rampant said:

Oh I realise that. Maybe I rate Thompson higher than others but I felt he didn't look out of place in the Championship for the most part and given the opportunity he could be an important part of our season.

(I'm not his agent btw)

That’s exactly what his agent would say to put us off the scent…

[DCFC1388]

1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

My assumption is based on the players we have, the llayers available in the market, the comments made by the players themselves, and Warne wanting a back 3. It'll be 3421.

Plymouth mostly played 3421 and deviatedfor a few games here and there due to player availability. Ipswich played half of their games with 4231 and the other half with 3421.

We won't be playing 3412 (as per Sheff Weds), as that means we need to sign 3 top CFs and an exceptional AM/SS, as well as offloading Mendez-Laing and Barkhuizen who'll no longer fit in. Similar for 352, except instead doff 1 AM/SS it'll be a CM who we need to sign.

Warne had used a lot of different formations in his time at Rotherham, starting with 442 in 2016 and changing every season until he ended up woth 352.

16/17 - 442 / 4411

17/18 - 442 / 433

18/19 - 433

19/20 - 433 / 442

20/21 - pretty much every formation. Mostly 352 

21/22 - 352

22/23 - 352

So its safe to say we will play some variation of 352, whether that is 3142 or 3412 will depend on the squad as you say. I do believe it will be more of a 3421/3412 so I altered the squad to suit the 3421.

We do need better or more natural 10s for it. NML wasnt too bad there, not sure about Barkhuizen in there although he could possibly be pretty decent in there given a chance. We all know that it is Sibleys natural & preferred position but he needs to be more consistent with it.

So 7 players needed, potentially up to 10 if Knight, Thompson & Rooney go like I suspect they will.

I personally wouldnt want us to go into the season short on numbers thinking thay NML Smith Barkhuizen Sibley can do a job at wingback fot example. If we want automatic promotion which appears to be our aim (and rightly so) we cant have gaps in our squad which we had last year.

 

Edited June 25, 2023 by DCFC1388

[Anag Ram]

9 hours ago, DCFC1388 said:

So its safe to say we will play some variation of 352, whether that is 3142 or 3412 will depend on the squad as you say. I do believe it will be more of a 3421/3412 so I altered the squad to suit the 3421.

We do need better or more natural 10s for it. NML wasnt too bad there, not sure about Barkhuizen in there although he could possibly be pretty decent in there given a chance. We all know that it is Sibleys natural & preferred position but he needs to be more consistent with it.

So 7 players needed, potentially up to 10 if Knight, Thompson & Rooney go like I suspect they will.

I personally wouldnt want us to go into the season short on numbers thinking thay NML Smith Barkhuizen Sibley can do a job at wingback fot example. If we want automatic promotion which appears to be our aim (and rightly so) we cant have gaps in our squad which we had last year.

 

I’d agree with most of this.

However, that leaves Bird, Hourihane and Smith in central midfield. They are all slow, steady ball players.

I think we need two, more mobile options here.

I’d also accept offers for any or all of the three listed CAM options.

[Ambitious]

21 hours ago, Kokosnuss said:

Not really sure Moxon would even want to move, not this season anyway.

https://www.efl.com/news/2023/june/owen-moxon-from-delivery-driving-to-wembley-success/

Carlisle are his boyhood club and he's just been instrumental in getting them promoted to League One. A year ago he was working part time as a delivery driver whilst playing in the Scottish 4th tier. He's got massive level of respect / love for Paul Simpson too (seems to be a theme amongst their fans!) so I can see him showing them a bit of loyalty.

I think it's far more likely that he'll want to see this season through as a Carlisle player, trying to help them stay up / establish themselves than chasing the money and risking a move somewhere that may not work out, at a club he doesn't have a passion for.

Potentially, but he was a part-time footballer in Scotland and was predominantly a delivery driver. Carlisle is his first stint in professional football and look how he's thrived. If you consider how much a club like Carlisle are likely to give a delivery driver to play professional football, perhaps £800-1000 a week (maximum) with relative bonuses. I would suspect £4-5k a week, if not more, to play for Derby would be a fairly strong motivator for him. 

I twill be interesting to see how he gets on next season, whoever he plays for, but what a story! 

[Animal is a Ram]

I'd argue Warne is likely to see Sibley and Smith as 2nd or 3rd depth for LWB and RWB respectively.