Run in to play offs...

[Tamworthram]

9 minutes ago, Patrick Rams said:

Bolton's next 3 games..at home to Shrewsbury..at home to Accrington..at home to Fleetwood.They could easily win those 3 matches.Then they would be uncatchable.Just down to us and Posh for that final place? I actually think our next two home games could turn out to be very difficult fixtures..both are competent teams.Yikes!

 

 

I agree and think they are very tricky ties either or both of which could end in draws.

I also agree with @Rammy03. Win them both then, assuming Ipswich don’t let us down and at least get a draw, and it’s back on. Drop points and it could end up with us needing a win at Sheffield Wednesday. Whatever happens though, it looks like it could go down to the last game of the season for 6th place which is the beauty (unless you finish third) of the play off system.

[jimtastic56]

6 minutes ago, MadAmster said:

Posh have Ipswich (H), Bristol Rovers (H) and Barnsley (A)

We have Burton (H) Pompey (H) and Wendy (A)

I give Posh 3 points from that. We need 4 to go ahead of them. That would also see Wycombe needing 3 wins (Lincoln and Cheltenham (H) and Pompey (A) ) to pass both of us. Beat both Burton and Pompey and we're there. Easy to write, harder to complete.

A hatful against Burton would also see us gain a better GD than Posh.

Quietly confident we'll make the playoffs. Warne says if we get into them we'll win them. 

If we get the chance to go up, we take it. Simple. 

Promotion itself will not give us a pointer to how we might perform next season in the SBC.  We have no idea who PW wants to keep, who he will sell, who he will give away. We have no idea if the planned EFL review of the business plan will see restrictions eased. I don't think they'll be lifted. Promotion first and then approach next season second. Rosenior put together a squad that has competed. Given the time he had, hardly anybody expected us to be where we are. 3 (or 5 or 6) games to go and promotion is still a possibility. I had expected midtable obscurity so I'm well happy. No saying Warne can't do the same in the SBC but this time with a full pre season. No next season predictions from me until we see what the squad looks like.

A “Hatfull” against Burton Albion sounds good . After all they have nothing to play for. They have a 10th choice Florists striker up front and they will be “scrapping the barrel “ to fill the away end.

[Caerphilly Ram]

Was looking at the table and remaining fixtures this morning. The league is split into 3 mini leagues for the final games. We’ve got the top 3 and Barnsley at a stretch competing for autos/the title; Us, Peterborough, Bolton and maybe Wycombe competing for 2 play off positions; and 5 teams competing to avoid filling the remaining relegation spots.

One of those relegation threatened teams is Accrington Stanley, their game in hand being against Bolton as we know. I had assumed it would be a straightforward enough victory for the Trotters but now that I’ve seen how tight it is at the bottom of the league I’m hoping there’s still some fight left in  Accrington! 
Either way we have to carry on looking after our own business but it’s definitely not done and dusted. 

[JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta]

15 minutes ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

Was looking at the table and remaining fixtures this morning. The league is split into 3 mini leagues for the final games. We’ve got the top 3 and Barnsley at a stretch competing for autos/the title; Us, Peterborough, Bolton and maybe Wycombe competing for 2 play off positions; and 5 teams competing to avoid filling the remaining relegation spots.

One of those relegation threatened teams is Accrington Stanley, their game in hand being against Bolton as we know. I had assumed it would be a straightforward enough victory for the Trotters but now that I’ve seen how tight it is at the bottom of the league I’m hoping there’s still some fight left in  Accrington! 
Either way we have to carry on looking after our own business but it’s definitely not done and dusted. 

Coleman in bits when he realises that points taken of Bolton help Derby out

[Tamworthram]

4 hours ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

Was looking at the table and remaining fixtures this morning. The league is split into 3 mini leagues for the final games. We’ve got the top 3 and Barnsley at a stretch competing for autos/the title; Us, Peterborough, Bolton and maybe Wycombe competing for 2 play off positions; and 5 teams competing to avoid filling the remaining relegation spots.

One of those relegation threatened teams is Accrington Stanley, their game in hand being against Bolton as we know. I had assumed it would be a straightforward enough victory for the Trotters but now that I’ve seen how tight it is at the bottom of the league I’m hoping there’s still some fight left in  Accrington! 
Either way we have to carry on looking after our own business but it’s definitely not done and dusted. 

I’d rather they’d shown it (and had success) in their home game last night against Posh.

[Dan_Ram]

I reckon with the game in hand and the fixtures left to play (Shrewsbury, Accrington, Fleetwood & Bristol Rovers), Bolton have got the easiest run in and should take the 5th spot.

Think it will be one of us or Peterborough for 6th. Pboro have a 1-point and 1-goal advantage over us currently but arguably have a slightly harder run in (Ipswich, Bristol Rovers and Barnsley for them).

As for us..
- Burton are in good form at the moment, Dino Maamria is a bit of a fiery character from what I've heard of him and he seems to have instilled that in Burton and turned them around recently. Their 4 wins from the last 7 games have included beating Wednesday, Wycombe and Barnsley so they know how to beat teams that want to get the ball down and play. I have a bad feeling about this one.
- Portsmouth on the other hand have won 1 and drawn 5 of their last 6 (and four of those 5 draws have been against teams in 18th/19th/20th & 22nd positions) so they aren't in the best of form and with no promotion/relegation left to fight for I would hope that would be the easiest game left in our run in.
- Wednesday will be a wildcard depending on what they have left to play for. Conceivably they could go in to the last game needing a win for a chance at autos, cant see us withstanding that kind of pressure away from home at Hillsborough. Or... the best scenario for us is that 2nd is out of reach and 3rd is secured so they rest a few players for the last game with nothing to play for.

Its too close to call for me at the moment, all we can do as fans is sell out or two remaining home games and put ourselves in the best position possible for a crazy final day. I feel for anyone with a weak heart because the next week or two is going to be stressful. 🐏

[strawhillram]

11 minutes ago, Dan_Ram said:

I reckon with the game in hand and the fixtures left to play (Shrewsbury, Accrington, Fleetwood & Bristol Rovers), Bolton have got the easiest run in and should take the 5th spot.

Think it will be one of us or Peterborough for 6th. Pboro have a 1-point and 1-goal advantage over us currently but arguably have a slightly harder run in (Ipswich, Bristol Rovers and Barnsley for them).

As for us..
- Burton are in good form at the moment, Dino Maamria is a bit of a fiery character from what I've heard of him and he seems to have instilled that in Burton and turned them around recently. Their 4 wins from the last 7 games have included beating Wednesday, Wycombe and Barnsley so they know how to beat teams that want to get the ball down and play. I have a bad feeling about this one.
- Portsmouth on the other hand have won 1 and drawn 5 of their last 6 (and four of those 5 draws have been against teams in 18th/19th/20th & 22nd positions) so they aren't in the best of form and with no promotion/relegation left to fight for I would hope that would be the easiest game left in our run in.
- Wednesday will be a wildcard depending on what they have left to play for. Conceivably they could go in to the last game needing a win for a chance at autos, cant see us withstanding that kind of pressure away from home at Hillsborough. Or... the best scenario for us is that 2nd is out of reach and 3rd is secured so they rest a few players for the last game with nothing to play for.

Its too close to call for me at the moment, all we can do as fans is sell out or two remaining home games and put ourselves in the best position possible for a crazy final day. I feel for anyone with a weak heart because the next week or two is going to be stressful. 🐏

Exciting and stressful finale. What more could we ask for.

On some days I feel we can do it, on other days I'm not so sure.  That usually corresponds to match days.

Buckle in and enjoy the ride

[Jimbo Ram]

5 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

I agree and think they are very tricky ties either or both of which could end in draws.

I also agree with @Rammy03. Win them both then, assuming Ipswich don’t let us down and at least get a draw, and it’s back on. Drop points and it could end up with us needing a win at Sheffield Wednesday. Whatever happens though, it looks like it could go down to the last game of the season for 6th place which is the beauty (unless you finish third) of the play off system.

Ties 😲 Are we still in the Cups 😊

[PistoldPete]

Annoying thing is normally 72 points with 3 to go you would usually fancy  your chances. But I think we need to win 2 from 3 . 78 points is close to max any team has got and not got into play offs I think. Wasn’t that in Mac 2 ‘s final year wolves got 78 points  so we got 77 and neither of us got into  the play offs. 

Edited April 19, 2023 by PistoldPete

[Dan_Ram]

27 minutes ago, PistoldPete said:

Annoying thing is normally 72 points with 3 to go you would usually fancy  your chances. But I think we need to win 2 from 3 . 78 points is close to max any team has got and not got into play offs I think. Wasn’t that in Mac 2 ‘s final year wolves got 78 points  so we got 77 and neither of us got into  the play offs. 

Correct, 2014/15 we finished 8th on 77 points. Wolves, Ipswich and Brentford finished 7th, 6th, 5th respectively. All on 78 points.

Did a quick check on points required to guarantee playoffs for each season since the turn of the century (7th place finisher's tally +1). Average for L1 would be 72 so again, right on that count. Highest points tally to finish outside of the playoffs was Plymouth last year with 80 points (as well as Tranmere in 2002/03 also with 80 points) 

 

[PistoldPete]

55 minutes ago, Dan_Ram said:

Correct, 2014/15 we finished 8th on 77 points. Wolves, Ipswich and Brentford finished 7th, 6th, 5th respectively. All on 78 points.

Did a quick check on points required to guarantee playoffs for each season since the turn of the century (7th place finisher's tally +1). Average for L1 would be 72 so again, right on that count. Highest points tally to finish outside of the playoffs was Plymouth last year with 80 points (as well as Tranmere in 2002/03 also with 80 points) 

 

Thanks. Cor 80 points and not finishing even in the playoffs sounds crazy. 
 

in the Championship it’s still the case that our 77 points would have got us into the playoffs in any year except that one . Yet it didn’t even get us 7th place that year. Also crazy. 
 

but I think 78 ( two wins) will be enough this year . I hope so. And then hope we get that too. 

Edited April 19, 2023 by PistoldPete

[Steadybreeze]

11 hours ago, jimtastic56 said:

A “Hatfull” against Burton Albion sounds good . After all they have nothing to play for. They have a 10th choice Florists striker up front and they will be “scrapping the barrel “ to fill the away end.

When have we ever scored a hatful against Burton 🤔 over the last five games they've been better than us, their form over the last ten games has been better than ours and their form over the last fifteen games has been better than ours, in fact in the last TWENTY games of a season where we've been going for promotion and they've been battling relegation we've only managed a single point more than them!

Not saying we wont win, but then it's Pompey who are no slouches either. Still think we'll need something from the last game!

 

[Tamworthram]

8 hours ago, Steadybreeze said:

When have we ever scored a hatful against Burton 🤔 over the last five games they've been better than us, their form over the last ten games has been better than ours and their form over the last fifteen games has been better than ours, in fact in the last TWENTY games of a season where we've been going for promotion and they've been battling relegation we've only managed a single point more than them!

Not saying we wont win, but then it's Pompey who are no slouches either. Still think we'll need something from the last game!

 

I said in an earlier post that we have never scored more than one goal against Burton in a competitive match but that doesn’t mean it can never happen. Here’s hoping for Saturday.

[AndyB]

And Burton have never scored at Pride Park (admittedly only 2 games), drew 0-0 and lost 1-0.

[jimtastic56]

42 minutes ago, AndyB said:

And Burton have never scored at Pride Park (admittedly only 2 games), drew 0-0 and lost 1-0.

Don’t think they had a shot in those two games either. They will “Park the bus”. 0-0 or 1-0 ????

[MarsdenRam]

On 19/04/2023 at 11:18, MarsdenRam said:

I think there's still a realistic path to the playoffs:

Bolton (72)
+ Shrewsbury (H) 3
+Accrington (H) 3
+ Fleetwood (H) 3
+ Bristol R (A) 1
- 82

Derby (72)
+ Burton (H) 3
+ Portsmouth (H) 3
+ Sheff W 0
=78

Peterborough (73)
+ Ipswich (H) 0
+ Bristol R (H) 3
+ Barnsley (A) 0
= 76

So far, completely correct young man, top marks. 🍻

[TomTom92]

Very frustrating that it’s gonna go down to the last match of the season. I thought Bristol might have given posh a game but they lost to port vale today and have Plymouth midweek. 

If only we’d not screwed up Shrewsbury, MK Dons or Bristol City we’d have two feet in the play offs. 
 
Really don’t like Barnsley potentially not having much to play for as well. Think we may need a point against weds to squeeze in.

[kevinhectoring]

44 minutes ago, TomTom92 said:

Very frustrating that it’s gonna go down to the last match of the season. I thought Bristol might have given posh a game but they lost to port vale today and have Plymouth midweek. 

If only we’d not screwed up Shrewsbury, MK Dons or Bristol City we’d have two feet in the play offs. 
 
Really don’t like Barnsley potentially not having much to play for as well. Think we may need a point against weds to squeeze in.

We need Plymouth and Ipswich to pull away from Wendies, so they have nothing to play for in the last game against us 

what you say about Barnsley is right. could help Peterborough. 
 

we must hope this EFL rule does not come into play because P’borough have scored many more goals than we have 

“If two or more Clubs have scored the same number of points their position in the Division shall be determined on goal difference, that is to say, the difference between the total number of goals scored by and against a Club in League Matches in that Season, and the higher or highest placed Club shall be the Club with the highest goal difference. If any two or more Clubs have scored the same number of points and have the same goal difference the higher or highest placed Club shall be the Club having scored the most goals in League Matches in that Season.”

[CapeTownRams]

So many ifs and buts and ultimately relies on us winning our games …

 

BUT… with the hope that we beat Pompey then we really need Ipswich to beat Barnsley on Tuesday…. If they do then all Ipswich need at home on Saturday in a fairly easy game is a draw (sure they will win) to ensure autos … that means the Wendeys have nothing but (home) pride to play for against us on the last day - and may not risk or may rest some key players…

[Bris Vegas]

I think one more win may be enough now. I can’t see Posh picking up maximum points from their final two games.