The Ukraine War

[Archied]

2 hours ago, LondonRam2 said:

This illustrates the extent of the problem.  The issue is not my alleged "affection" or "emotion": this is just a standard tactic to discredit a contrary position by implying that the other person is emotional and therefore irrational.  As for "play decent", well it's the lack of decency that's the issue, and unfortunately if you don't condemn the actions of the invaders, whatever their reasons, then you are complicit whether you like it or not.

In 1939 various people such as Orwell and Mosley were forced by the outbreak of war to stop carping from the sidelines and CHOOSE A SIDE.  When such acts of inhumanity are perpetrated, sadly we are now in the same position.  You can argue the nuances of international diplomacy and geopolitics all you like.  You can point out aspects of the history that support Russia, and I agree that these do exist.  In the end however, the response is so wildly disproportionate and murderous that, unless you condemn it, you are de facto supporting it.

Once again, it's not Russia or its people that are the problem, it's their government.  Russian soldiers, lied to and sent to die by their own government, are victims too, and their deaths are every bit as tragic and unfair as anyone else's.  However, they are combatants and they are armed, unlike Ukrainian civilians hiding in a basement.  Let's be absolutely clear.  War crimes are being committed by Russia, and all we can hope for is that eventually someone will ultimately be brought to justice for this wanton butchery of innocent people.  So, once again - if you do not condemn outright these acts of barbarity, then you are de facto supporting them.  That is the reality of your position as you have set it out, unless you are able to clarify it somehow and convince me otherwise.

Genuinely Out of interest what do you think the west should do?

[BaaLocks]

3 hours ago, LondonRam2 said:

So, once again - if you do not condemn outright these acts of barbarity, then you are de facto supporting them.  That is the reality of your position as you have set it out, unless you are able to clarify it somehow and convince me otherwise.

I condemn the war, the actions on Ukranian citizens, the decision to send Russian soldiers to their deaths, the indiscriminate bombing of civilian locations, the attacks on nuclear power stations that could easily go wrong, the used of thermobaric weapons. I condemn it all and it should stop at the earliest opportunity. Both sides will need to compromise for that to happen - Zelensky is saying as much himself - but I do condemn the war.

I do hope that is clear enough for you, all my previous statements to the same effect seem to have passed you by.

Edited March 18, 2022 by BaaLocks

[Stive Pesley]

13 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

First up, thx for posting, interesting clip. Appreciate it.

Again, for the broader context rather than trying to justify the action. (BTW - I get the point that the translated words sound a bit, well, bonkers but a lot of it is not so much poorly translated as not contextualised inside how people speak. The bit about the fly in the mouth sounds a bit nutty, but in Russian it really does not. But hey, we're Western so we judge it from our frame of mind rather than try to understand the actual message beneath don't we?)

- If you watch the whole speech Putin starts by saying that the Western model, the US model, is inherently broken. And that they don't want that model, either imposed on them or suggested to them. They've been saying that since 1991 but it doesn't work for America to listen, they need the conflict more than anyone.

- He then says there are many who live in Russia, pop stars and the like, who are happy to take the benefits of living in Russia (13% income tax being one) but then come out and speak not only against the war but against Russia. His reaction to that is that you have a choice, if you don't want to be a supporter of Russia then don't live in Russia. As he says here, live in Miami, no problem.

- And his reference to Ukraine is to say to them that they are being played as the pawns in all of this. Nobody in the US cared about Ukraine three months ago, now we all have blue and yellow badges on our Twitter accounts. Three months from now, chances are we won't care again.

What I will say, from evidence of contact with friends and family, is that the Wests threatening posture is hardening resolve, rather than loosening it, in Russia - sanctions are having exactly that effect, the total reverse of what is intended. Again, many see this conflict not as a fight to allow Russia it's empire driven right to reclaim Donbass, they see it as a chance to stand up against the bullying tactics of Biden and co, to take position against the capitalist model in the west that drives many into conflict, poverty and division.

Again, park any comments that I am supportive of the war, I am not. But I do have sympathy in a lot of Putin's comments about how the West feels it can treat the rest of the world. The ends do not justify the means, but the core question that is being asked - why do we continue to let America and others decide how we live our lives - is one that is not the rantings of a madman.

Appreciate the response, and I was kind of hoping you might be able to add more context around it.

As you say - the question of "why do we continue to let America and others decide how we live our lives" - is a universal one, nothing mad about asking it

But framed in the context here of "how we live our lives" meaning conducting all-out aggressive military assault on our neighbours, indiscriminately killing civilians etc etc is certainly an extreme position

We can all see the contradictions and hypocrisies at play but it feels like only a madman would draw attention to them in such a murderous way. 

 

 

 

[Dimmu]

17 hours ago, Stive Pesley said:

This latest speech from Putin is pretty deranged - seems to be calling for patriotic Russians to turn on their fellow countrymen "traitors" who don't support the offensive in Ukraine

 

With that amount of botox, you'd are expected to keep the pokerface but no... I see a loot of despair and hopelessness.

If someone wants to understand the mindset and the culture of Russia, you could do worse than checking this one out. (I haven't checked the translation, I just listened it at the background). Lot's of good insights even for someone who was born close to Russian border like me.

 

[PistoldPete]

48 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

Appreciate the response, and I was kind of hoping you might be able to add more context around it.

As you say - the question of "why do we continue to let America and others decide how we live our lives" - is a universal one, nothing mad about asking it

But framed in the context here of "how we live our lives" meaning conducting all-out aggressive military assault on our neighbours, indiscriminately killing civilians etc etc is certainly an extreme position

We can all see the contradictions and hypocrisies at play but it feels like only a madman would draw attention to them in such a murderous way. 

 

 

 

The problem with America being the most powerful nation in the world is that this does bring a lot of responsibility. If America and the west does nothing then bad things happen. If they get involved they get criticised . Damned if they do damned if they don’t.

[Highgate]

4 hours ago, Archied said:

Yep this is an area that could easily spiral into a mirror of hitler s pre ww2 germany with regards to reparations very much helping to create a situation where an absolute power crazy loon somehow managed to take a nation of largely ordinary decent people with him ( all nations are full of mainly decent people)

the problem is I’m at a loss as to what else can be done ,ww3 , a nuclear war is a very real threat ,ultimately the answer has to come from within Russia itself ??‍♂️

Yeah me too.  The only way out of this is by negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

Now that Putin realizes that the war is much more difficult than he expected I'm hoping he has scaled down his objectives, and is instead looking for an ego-saving exit that he can spin as a victory at home.  I shudder to think what a desperate Putin might do if he feels like he is backed into a corner with no escape route. He has already shown how little he cares for the lives of Ukrainian civilians or Russian soldiers.

[Wolfie]

10 minutes ago, Highgate said:

Yeah me too.  The only way out of this is by negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

Now that Putin realizes that the war is much more difficult than he expected I'm hoping he has scaled down his objectives, and is instead looking for an ego-saving exit that he can spin as a victory at home.  I shudder to think what a desperate Putin might do if he feels like he is backed into a corner with no escape route. He has already shown how little he cares for the lives of Ukrainian civilians or Russian soldiers.

It looks like that's exactly what will happen, with Turkey mediating and Putin downscaling his demands somewhat. There will be pressure on all sides for this to go ahead (and be successful). A long war of occupation and insurgence is precisely what nobody wants right now.

Putin has shot himself in the foot so much with attacking Ukraine. The previously feared Russian military has been demonstrated to be poorly equipped, chaotic and poorly motivated. Does anyone know if his nukes would still work anyway?

The pariah economy will be flatlining and more so once Europe (hopefully) succeeds in sourcing gas from elsewehere. Even if he stays in power for now, Russians will find out just how vicious and ultimately stupid this whole exercise was. It could get interesting in Russia then.

[1of4]

The Putin propaganda machine looks to be in full swing, going by the Nuremberg type rally held at the Luzhniki stadium in Moscow.

[Rev]

Arnie to the rescue!

 

[Highgate]

40 minutes ago, Wolfie said:

It looks like that's exactly what will happen, with Turkey mediating and Putin downscaling his demands somewhat. There will be pressure on all sides for this to go ahead (and be successful). A long war of occupation and insurgence is precisely what nobody wants right now.

Putin has shot himself in the foot so much with attacking Ukraine. The previously feared Russian military has been demonstrated to be poorly equipped, chaotic and poorly motivated. Does anyone know if his nukes would still work anyway?

The pariah economy will be flatlining and more so once Europe (hopefully) succeeds in sourcing gas from elsewehere. Even if he stays in power for now, Russians will find out just how vicious and ultimately stupid this whole exercise was. It could get interesting in Russia then.

Yeah, that would make sense.  Even the most hardcore Putin supporters will realize that the last thing Russia needs right now is another 1980s Afghanistan. But that is what they will be faced with if they try to control and occupy Ukraine.

It's amazing how badly Putin has miscalculated. All the economic improvements that Russia has enjoyed since he came to power were basically built on the back of their enormous gas reserves.  Now, no matter what happens in Ukraine from here, every single European country (at least)  that depends on Russian gas  will want to find alternative energy sources as quickly as they possibly can. 

In any democratic country he would likely be out of a job by the next election at the latest, not only for starting a needless and vicious war, but also for damaging Russia's economic prospects.  Unfortunately Russia is not a democracy.

[PistoldPete]

40 minutes ago, Rev said:

Arnie to the rescue!

 

Brilliant. And very moving speech from Arnie.

[Eddie]

[StantonRam]

OK, someone asked "what should the west do"?  A few thoughts:

Refuse to trade with Putin and extract ourselves from all contracts of any kind as soon as legally possible.

On a personal level, send any Russian person who attempts to defend this stuff to Coventry (sorry).  There might be some theoretical "justification" for grabbing Crimea and the Donbas from their point of view but...bombing Lviv?  Bombing hospitals with kids inside?  I think not.

Announce a No Fly Zone west of the Dnieper.  Simple to operate, it's a damn great river, you can't miss it.  Whatever excuses they might make for intervening in the east, there is no excuse whatever to bomb in the west.  The NATO aircraft should fly very high and send information to Ukrainian ground forces (rather than engaging Russian planes or missiles themselves) so that the Ukrainian forces can target and fight back against any Russian airspace incursions west of the Dnieper.  This would also have the advantage of reassuring non combatants that if they can somehow get over the Dnieper they will be much safer and do not need to leave Ukraine to reach safety.  This in turn will lessen the pressure on neighbouring countries.

Finally - bitter pill - persuade the Ukraine government to in effect trade land for peace.  Let Putin have Crimea and the Donbas, get the Russian army out of everywhere else, and wait for a better government in Russia post Putin.  Persuade Ukraine to not join NATO - they have already committed to this publicly.  BUT, Ukraine should NOT accept any limits on it's armed forces, why should they in view of recent events?

Europe's rearmament should (with deep regret) continue.  Sanctions should continue long term until Russia leaves Crimea and the Donbas.  Free referendums then to be held in these areas under direct UN supervision and see which way the people vote once they have returned.  Crimea will probably vote for Russia, the Donbas probably for Ukraine.  Agreement that the Donbas should be completely demilitarised (under UN supervision) by BOTH sides.  Demilitarised buffer zone to include Kharkiv.  If China assists Russia then sanctions and refusal to trade as well.  If China is sensible it will keep its head well down, because the west is (FINALLY!) starting to take a moral stand, where possible, about who we trade with.  At some point a more pragmatic government will emerge in Russia with which we can do business.  Russia may yet have it's own "Maidan".

No reward for Putin simply stopping the bombing or withdrawing from the rest of Ukraine, why reward what would simply be a return to normality?  Continued refusal to deal with this gangster government.

In the UK, open up the remaining North Sea oil and gas fields as a temporary stopgap and then (taxes up if necessary) go for a "dash for renewables" (tidal power, green hydrogen etc), aiming for long term self sufficiency of 70-80%.  Also a "dash for food", incentivising organic sustainable agriculture as well as tree planting, making non meat food options cheaper (meat tax?), penalising imports of non seasonal produce (tariffs).  We learned to live more simply during the lockdowns, why not continue that good work?

The big lesson here is that globalisation benefits only the rich and powerful and makes us hostages to despotic overseas governments.  A century from now, those who follow us may come to think that Putin actually did us all a favour by reminding us of this uncomfortable fact, and forcing us to change our ways out of sheer disgust.

That will do for starters I think.

Over and out.

[Ramarena]

Sadly it sounds like Mariupol is close to being taken by the invaders.

Also if the reports from the council there are true, then large scale ethnic cleansing has begun.

I do wonder if this is Putin’s exit strategy, take Mariupol and then work towards a cease in hostilities, whilst ethnically cleansing the area to stamp his authority. This would give him control from Crimea eastwards with a decent sized port accessing the Black Sea.

As the Ukrainian president has already stated, he will have some tough decisions to make soon to try and end this in some form. The trouble is, no matter what gets agreed you cannot trust Putin, he’s greedy evil eyes will always be looking westwards at lands of other countries.

The west must also not turn its back and return to more normal relations either. We just stay on high alert.

[Alph]

On 18/03/2022 at 11:06, PistoldPete said:

The problem with America being the most powerful nation in the world is that this does bring a lot of responsibility. If America and the west does nothing then bad things happen. If they get involved they get criticised . Damned if they do damned if they don’t.

Plenty of bad things happen when America do get involved. 

A nation constantly in military conflicts and funding it's agenda through proxy wars that has an alarming disregard for civilian casualties shouldn't get to play world police. 

It's a good job they get to write the news and tell the stories in Hollywood.

[Alph]

1 hour ago, Ramarena said:

The west must also not turn its back and return to more normal relations either. We just stay on high alert.

They'll end up in bed with China/ Saudi Arabia instead. Who will do business with Russia

[Ramarena]

3 minutes ago, Alpha said:

They'll end up in bed with China/ Saudi Arabia instead. Who will do business with Russia

True, I think the west may end up doing business with Russia by proxy if China props up Putin in the way he’s asking. 

I think Xi will be relatively content with how things have gone, he will now be looking to navigate the path between utilising Russias desperation and keeping the west onside. Not an easy task, but a very profitable one if he gets it right!

[Highgate]

11 hours ago, LondonRam2 said:

OK, someone asked "what should the west do"?  A few thoughts:

Refuse to trade with Putin and extract ourselves from all contracts of any kind as soon as legally possible.

On a personal level, send any Russian person who attempts to defend this stuff to Coventry (sorry).  There might be some theoretical "justification" for grabbing Crimea and the Donbas from their point of view but...bombing Lviv?  Bombing hospitals with kids inside?  I think not.

Announce a No Fly Zone west of the Dnieper.  Simple to operate, it's a damn great river, you can't miss it.  Whatever excuses they might make for intervening in the east, there is no excuse whatever to bomb in the west.  The NATO aircraft should fly very high and send information to Ukrainian ground forces (rather than engaging Russian planes or missiles themselves) so that the Ukrainian forces can target and fight back against any Russian airspace incursions west of the Dnieper.  This would also have the advantage of reassuring non combatants that if they can somehow get over the Dnieper they will be much safer and do not need to leave Ukraine to reach safety.  This in turn will lessen the pressure on neighbouring countries.

Finally - bitter pill - persuade the Ukraine government to in effect trade land for peace.  Let Putin have Crimea and the Donbas, get the Russian army out of everywhere else, and wait for a better government in Russia post Putin.  Persuade Ukraine to not join NATO - they have already committed to this publicly.  BUT, Ukraine should NOT accept any limits on it's armed forces, why should they in view of recent events?

Europe's rearmament should (with deep regret) continue.  Sanctions should continue long term until Russia leaves Crimea and the Donbas.  Free referendums then to be held in these areas under direct UN supervision and see which way the people vote once they have returned.  Crimea will probably vote for Russia, the Donbas probably for Ukraine.  Agreement that the Donbas should be completely demilitarised (under UN supervision) by BOTH sides.  Demilitarised buffer zone to include Kharkiv.  If China assists Russia then sanctions and refusal to trade as well.  If China is sensible it will keep its head well down, because the west is (FINALLY!) starting to take a moral stand, where possible, about who we trade with.  At some point a more pragmatic government will emerge in Russia with which we can do business.  Russia may yet have it's own "Maidan".

No reward for Putin simply stopping the bombing or withdrawing from the rest of Ukraine, why reward what would simply be a return to normality?  Continued refusal to deal with this gangster government.

In the UK, open up the remaining North Sea oil and gas fields as a temporary stopgap and then (taxes up if necessary) go for a "dash for renewables" (tidal power, green hydrogen etc), aiming for long term self sufficiency of 70-80%.  Also a "dash for food", incentivising organic sustainable agriculture as well as tree planting, making non meat food options cheaper (meat tax?), penalising imports of non seasonal produce (tariffs).  We learned to live more simply during the lockdowns, why not continue that good work?

The big lesson here is that globalisation benefits only the rich and powerful and makes us hostages to despotic overseas governments.  A century from now, those who follow us may come to think that Putin actually did us all a favour by reminding us of this uncomfortable fact, and forcing us to change our ways out of sheer disgust.

That will do for starters I think.

Over and out.

A lot of interesting and good points there.

The one thing I would worry about is the idea of a No Fly Zone west of the Dnieper River.  While it does makes sense for the reasons you mentioned it would, I fear, it comes with huge risks involved.  Having Russian and Nato pilots potentially contesting the same airspace could lead to a direct conflict between NATO and Russia...and that's potentially WWIII.  Also having a NFZ west of the Dnieper only...and not east of the Dnieper may be seen by the Russians as a tacit surrender of all of Eastern Ukraine to their dominance.  Obviously that's guesswork...but it definitely seems plausible.

3 hours ago, Ramarena said:

As the Ukrainian president has already stated, he will have some tough decisions to make soon to try and end this in some form. The trouble is, no matter what gets agreed you cannot trust Putin, he’s greedy evil eyes will always be looking westwards at lands of other countries.

The west must also not turn its back and return to more normal relations either. We just stay on high alert.

Absolutely, as long as that man stays in power the world will be a far more dangerous place.  One benefactor from Putin's invasion of Ukraine will be the arms industry.  Military budgets will be increased all over the world....especially in Europe and understandably so...but it's another step backwards.

Edited March 20, 2022 by Highgate

[Alph]

2 hours ago, Ramarena said:

True, I think the west may end up doing business with Russia by proxy if China props up Putin in the way he’s asking. 

I think Xi will be relatively content with how things have gone, he will now be looking to navigate the path between utilising Russias desperation and keeping the west onside. Not an easy task, but a very profitable one if he gets it right!

Yeah 100%

This has played out very well for China. 

[JoetheRam]

One of the saddest things for me about this war is that until recently the kids out the front near me were playing football/tennis/go karts/drawing with chalk. In the last three weeks or so they've started shooting each other with Nerf guns and catapults and dressing up as soldiers. I don't think it's a coincidence. 

Humans will never change.

Edited March 20, 2022 by JoetheRam